MLB Wrap Up With Week 5 Supercontest

Super blog! Ill give you guys a rundown of how well I predicted the baseball season. Below is each team as they appear in the final standings with my predicted record in parentheses. If you don’t care then jump on down to this week’s Supercontest recap and picks!

AL WEST

Oakland A's 94-68 (77-85)

Texas Rangers 93-69 (98-64)
Anaheim Angels 89-73 (96-66)
Seattle 75-87 (69-93)

Obviously no one picked the A’s to win the west with the two time defending champs Rangers team and a completely reloaded Angels team sitting in the same division, but I will take credit for predicting a much better season for the A’s than most. As predicted the offense was better than last year and while I though McCarthy and Parker would help offset the loss of Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill (who really wasn’t that good last year) what obviously set this team over the edge was performances by 30 other rookies that simply blew apart all statistical projections for players like Brandon Moss, Tommy Milone, and even players like Josh Donaldson (who I watched in Sacramento last year and though he had a bench future ahead). I’m not sure what I’m going to do with this team next year but among sabermetricians they are a likely Top 3 regression candidate. Who knows, maybe the kids are just that good.

For Texas this was a good lesson for both the players and the fans. Divisions are hard to win. Every game matters. Never assume anything. Texas made it easy to assume a division by compiling a rather large division lead for much of the season only to piss it away with a 4-9 stretch at the end of the season. Now they have to set out to do what the Cardinals did last year, take it from the wild card to the championship. There is still a lot of talent and a bunch of postseason experience on the roster. It’s hard to have a lot of expectations for this team right now, but with a possible three straight home games to start the postseason they could build up for a run.

Anaheim has to be the most disappointing team of the season. They basically killed themselves in April and couldn’t play enough catchup the rest of the way. What is doubling disappointing is that they may just be the scariest team right now and have nothing to play for. At least Mike Trout made them a whoel bunch of money to pay that albatross Pujols contract.

Seattle made some nice strides, turning this into possibly the toughest division from top to bottom in all of baseball. The problem here is they just still lack enough rotation depth and offensive talent to compete in the AL. Selling King Felix for a king’s ransom may be the best possible route to get this team moving in the next couple of years.

AL CENTRAL

Detroit Tigers 88-74 (101-61)
Chicago White Sox 85-77  (81-81)
Kansas City Royals 72-90 (75-87)
Cleveland Indians 68-94 (72-90)

Minnesota Twins 66-96 (80-82)

Detroit sure made it interesting. I don’t think this team is as scary as people think they are heading into the postseason and there is a significant chance they get run right out by the A’s. The Tigers ended their schedule in similar fashion to the Giants: A month’s worth of easy pickings in the division. Verlander and Scherzer are capable postseason pitchers but that bullpen and offense outside of Cabrera and Fielder  (and maybe Austin Jackson) simply hasn’t been great all season.  But they did win the easiest division in baseball just not in the dominating fashion I, and many others, expected.

Chicago was shockingly more talented this season than I predicted, yet still only outpaced my predictions by 4 games thanks to a horrible September. It’s amazing what 3 players can do for you and Chris Sale, Adam Dunn’s revived zombie corpse, and the everlasting AJ Pierzynski made all the difference for the White Sox in the first 5 months of the season. They have enough talent to maintain a strangle hold on second, but as constituted this division should continue to be Detroit’s for a few more years.

Kansas City was about expected. There just isn’t much to say about them. A lot of young talent on offense, some of which still has to grow and some of which has grown, but until they get a couple half decent starters in there, they will continue to disappoint.

Cleveland showed us their true colors. I’m glad I was a smart cookie and picked them fourth in this division.  There just is simply no talent on this team. Jimenez is a joke and Santana and Choo, while nice players are not franchise carriers. But really, that rotation has to improve. When Justin Masterson is your statistical leader in wins (11), ERA (4.93), K (153), and WHIP (1.45) you have problems, man.

I guess I overvalued the return of Mauer, Morneau, and Span to this offense and failed to consider that the Twins rotation also sucks. Even with more offense in Josh Willingham they sucked bad. These last three teams are terrible pitching wise and only Kansas City even comes close to carrying an offense to counteract those problems. I need to make sure I remember this heading into next year.

AL EAST

New York Yankees 95-67 (96-66)
Baltimore Orioles 93-69 (69-93)

Tampa Bay Rays 90-72 (93-69)
Toronto Blue Jays 73-89 (84-78)
Boston Valentines 69-93 (90-72)

Surprise, surprise the Yankees win. I thought it would be close, but it wasn’t quite close with the team I expected. Still at this point, until the Yankees collapse, picking them as division winners is easy money. Despite injuries to ARod, Teixeira, and CC (twice), the Yankees just kept coming. I look forward to hopefully beating them out of the playoffs again.

The fighting Showalters! Ok this is obviously the top pick for regression next year with that negative run differential. Adam Jones finally broke out. He needs to be a lesson to everyone that until a guy really gets to 27 or 28 you cant throw him out. Baseball is a funny game like that. It’s like being a quarterback in football, there is so much to learn at the highest level about your offensive approach that it can take years. Also kudos to Chris Davis (age 26) for finally figuring it out too. His 33 home runs would have been useful at first base for the Rangers this year. I wouldn’t have high hopes if I was an Orioles fan, especially after getting beat down by a good pitching staff. They remind me of the Rangers of the late 90s that just had so much offense and not enough pitching they could win big or lose big. 

Tampa Bay reaches about the same levels of disappointment as the Angels. Clearly the AL’s best rotation was not enough to make up for Evan Longoria’s absence as the offense struggled mightily at times. They almost came back but it just wasn’t enough this year. I just don’t know where they go from here. They probably won’t retain Upton, who was their best run producer while Longoria was out and don’t have the cash to make any big splashes anywhere. That awesome rotation is getting wasted by penny pinching owners in Tampa.

Man, I told you guys Toronto wasn’t that good. In hindsight the 84 wins was too high for this team. Of course losing Bautista  for an extended period of time didn’t help but Edwin ENcarnacion did have a career year. For Toronto its like Seattle, some talent in places, but just lesser talent than its division rivals. Its rotation cant compete with the Rays and its offense cant compete with the Yankees. Just no way they do anything in this division.

Sigh, I thought talent would win out at the end of the day over the Bobby Valentine sideshow. Now that talent is pushed out of Boston along with Bobby V. All of it just smacks of a throwaway year from the outset in Boston. Is the team positioning itself to sell? Do they want to make a run at Upton and Hamilton? What about Greinke? Or do they play the developmental game next season? I don’t envy Red Sox fans right now. The team is a mess and it might get messier before it gets better.

NL WEST

San Francisco Giants 94-68 (92-70)
Los Angeles Dodgers 86-76 (81-81)
Arizona Diamondbacks 81-81 (86-76)
San Diego Padres 76-86 (70-92)

Colorado Rockies 64-98 (75-87)

I think someone commented on this prediction that the Giants wouldn’t win the West by 6 games. Instead they went and won it by 8. I wasn’t confident in the talent of this division outside of the Giants. Despite Lincecum’s well chronicled struggles, the Giants still have 2 of the best pitchers in the league in MadBum and Cain. The addition of the Cheater, Angel Pagan, and a full season of Posey was more than enough to improve the offense from last year and give this division easily to the Giants.

LA was a first half dynamo, yet somehow after all of their deadline deals and the post deadline monster trade they seemed to regress. Despite being in a division with the Giants, the Dodgers actually gave up the fewest runs in the division. I would’ve thought with the addition of HanRam and Adrian Gonzalez to a healed Matt Kemp in the second half would make that offense formidable. But while each player played ok, they weren’t enough and the Dodgers faded bad in September. This will be an intriguing team come next season.

Arizona was off the radar all season. Regression in the pitching staff and a horrible by his standards season from Justin Upton didn’t help. They did put up the offense expected in the desert but they just couldn’t find the consistency to push for the division or even a wild card. Turns out the predicted 86 wins wouldn’t have made the wild card anyway.

San Diego made some nice strides with young talent this year and now that the sale is complete San Diego may be in a position to compete going forward. The story was obviously the emergence of Chase Headley who posted an out of nowhere .286/.376/.498 line with 31 homers and 115 RBI. Chase turned 28 this year after losing much of his Age 27 season to injury and inconsistency. Another lesson in giving prospects a chance. Not every player can be Mike Trout.

Colorado gave up 890 runs. That’s 5.5 every game. In the National League. Not going to win much doing that and they certainly did not win much posting the 3^rd worse record in the league.

NL CENTRAL

Cincinnati Reds 97-65 (82-80)
St. Louis Cardinals 88-74 (83-79)
Milwaukee Brewers 83-79 (87-75)
Pittsburgh Pirates 79-83 (79-83)
Chicago Cubs 61-101 (71-91)
Houston Astros 55-107 (58-104)

Swap the Reds and Brewers and I nailed this division. So I didn’t give Latos enough credit, but what really did this was Johnny Cueto’s Cy Young winning season (yep he’s my pick) and the arrival of Aroldis Chapman. If you can get quality pitching in Cincinnati that powerful offense led by Votto (who was hurt), Bruce, and Phillips can give yout he support. They got the pitching this year and so it’s nto a surprise they won the Central handily. I just didn’t believe they’d get such great pitching.

Stupid Cardinals won’t die. Pujols leaves, Carpenter is lost and they keep on trucking. That’s how bad the National League is. If you put the Cardinals in the American League they’d get blown out. Beltran did do enough to help counteract the loss of Pujols and the rest of the offense held its end of the bargain finishing top 10 in Runs, BA, OBP, and SLG. I still think they have a very short future in this postseason and expect regression next season.

The Brewers turned it on way too late. Aramis Ramirez was plenty good in place of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun was maybe even better than last season. With Greinke and Gallardo in the fold there was no reason these guys should have been so bad as to have to sell Greinke. Even 5 of their 6 primary starters stayed under 4.00 era but they just couldn’t do it. I still can’t figure it out.

The Pirates need more seasoning…again. Two seasons in a row they’ve collapsed in the second half. Andrew McCutchen is everything he’s ever going to be and Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker and Garrett Jones all held up their end of the bargain too. The pitching staff just melted away there in the second half and the offense couldn’t keep hot. Pittsburgh will have it’s first winning season in 20 years next year.

Cubs and Astros suck. Cubs will be rebuilding for years and the Astros should be contracted. Whatever, welcome to the AL West, Houston. We’ll make you feel right at home.

NL EAST

Washington Nationals 98-64 (95-67)
Atlanta Braves 94-68 (85-75)
Philadelphia Phillies 81-81 (90-72)
NY Mets 74-88 (75-87)

Miami Marlins 69-93 (77-85)

Freakin’ nailed it. Strasburg is an otherworldly talent that now has performance enhancing surgery behind him. The totally expected and predicted seasons of Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez made this easily the most formidable team in NL. They already had the bats once Michael Morse got off the DL and Jayson Werth had a bounceback campaign. What I don’t understand is why this wasn’t more predictable in the first place. All the pieces were there, and the opportunity was there as well with the Phillies sitting in neutral while they waited for Utley and Howard to comeback. These guys are my pride and joy of my predictions and if something befalls my beloved Rangers in the postseason, I’m riding the Nationals!

Atlanta’s young guns did it. I questioned whether they would be able to, and Heyward and Medlen and Venters and Kimbrel and Freeman all stepped up. Even the old guy Chipper stepped up. This is a dangerous team and it was nice to see them bounce back after an epic collapse last year at the end.

Philadelphia regressed faster than expected. Maybe I should’ve seen it coming, but they did still have players like Rollins and Victorino and Pence in their lineups while they waited. I thought they would start slow but not this slow. I’ll be curious to see what this team does going forward. Halladay and Lee aren’t getting any younger and the Four Horseman went to the Big Three that may just end up being lonely one in Hamels soon. Tough transition time for the Phillies after a great half decade run.

I didn’t factor Dickey in as a 50 game winner when I gave the Mets 75 wins and they still couldn’t get there. The Mets just suck. Johan Santana was a nice story for 1/3 of the year until his 134 pitch no-hitter on June 1. After that he made only 10 more starts with only 3 of them even being quality. What got me more I guess was I overestimated their offense. It’s pretty much a no name offense. I’ll have to keep that in mind for next year.

If I was a Marlins fan I’d want a divorce. New stadium, new manager, new pitcher, and new All-Star position players and they can’t win 70. Granted I didn’t think thye would be any good, since when are Jose Reyes and Mark Buerhle difference makers in a tough division? Giancarlo Stanton is a nice player, but HanRam wasn’t doing anything for this team and the rest of the offense played a pop-gun style with the highest home run total behind Stanton was Ramirez’ 14. Get this team some real bats with some power.

All in all I think I did fairly well in my predictions. I’ll certainly put them up against any “expert” who gets paid to do this shit and I didn’t need any crazy sabermetric predictive models to do it either. Sometimes all of that gets in the way of common-sense and observation. I like sabermetrics, but this column was certainly one for the old-timers.

SUPERCONTEST RECAP AND PICKS

Before I get started I could’ve won some serious money for a lot of people last week. In addition to these five picks which I nailed, I gave out 6 of my best college football picks to a friend in Vegas (that he failed to bet) and nailed all 6 of those. Will I ever see a weekend like that again? One can only hope. On to the recaps:

Patriots (-4) @ Bills

This pick was looking dicey for awhile until Tom Brady and Co. went into eff-you mode and just started slinging it  including a fantasy game changing (for me at least) garbage time 25 yard TD to Brandon Lloyd when they were already up 14 with 4 minutes to go. It’s clear neither of these teams have good defenses, but at least the Patriots showed resiliency once the offense started to charge back and made a series of stops in the second half. Against any team with a half-competent offense it may be difficult for the Patriots to cover higher spreads like 6+ until the back-end of that defense gets it together.

49ers (-4) @ Jets

Crushed. Until further notice, I will not expect the 49ers to lose to teams with minimal talent on offense. It was clear from Minnesota’s first two games that they can at least move the ball, but coming into this game Sanchez couldn‘t complete 50% of his passes.   Add in a scheme ruining injury to Revis, the fact that Harbaugh is certainly a top 5 NFL coach, that the 49ers had an inspiring week of practice in Youngstown and the blowout shutout was fairly predictable.

Giants (+2.5) @ Eagles

This got close towards the end. The Eagles offense is miserable, I’m shocked they were able to win this game. They have to be the shakiest 3-1 team in all the NFL. If they can’t get McCoy going, this team could put together a significant losing streak.  Meanwhile the Giants couldn’t seem to get much going either, but that was to be expected against Philly’s stout defense. Really if you have two even teams who know each other better than anyone, taking the points seems to always be a good bet.

Vikings (+6.5) @ Lions

Didn’t quite win this one how I planned, but one thing is for certain, I hate the Lions offense. I still have no idea how they came back last week, but this offense is just not clicking nearly on the same level as the Jets. Teams shouldn’t be able to roll double coverage or zones to one player every play without paying the price somewhere else but that’s what’s happening with Megatron and Detroit’s offense. Meanwhile, Minnesota was a big let down on offense too, being unable to channel its efficiency from the last 3 weeks and failing to score a touchdown against the maligned Lions defense. It may be too early to call Minnesota a good team, but they certainly are a competitive team.

Bengals (-2.5) @ Jaguars

Glad I went with my gut here, Cincinnati’s offense is decent enough to cover this spread even with a bad defense. Jacksonville still lacks a lot of offensive firepower and I wouldn’t call their defense dominant either. Still, this game shouldn’t sucker people into thinking Cincinnati is somehow great and Jacksonville terrible, I can still see Jacksonville being competitively bad in a lot of games.

WEEK 5 PICKS

Falcons (-3) @ Redskins

So I didn’t hype up the -7 line against Carolina at home last week for a couple of reasons. One, Carolina was not that bad as they showed on Thursday night. That game is just an anomaly. One team seems to come into it completely unprepared (see: Cardinals, Arizona). The other thing is I’m not sold on the Falcons defense being that great. Combine those two factors plus it being a division game and that’s why I stayed away. This line seems ridiculously reactionary to both RGIII’s heroics and the Falcons nearly taking a shit at home against Carolina. But the Redskins secondary is so bad that I just can’t help picturing Atlanta going up and down the field on them all game. Even if RGIII can keep pace, I think Atlanta can cover the 3 in a shootout. With me avoiding the Thursday game and 4 teams on bye, this seems as much of a lock as any pick can be this week.

Texans (-8) @ Jets

I don’t usually like these lines, more than a touchdown on Monday Night Football on the road. But the Jets simply have the most inept offense right now and the Texans defense is every bit as capable as the 49ers defense of pitching the shutout here. With the exception of Peyton Manning, this defense has just taken charge and run through everyone. I’m surprised this line isn’t higher. The Jets run defense is secretly not good and without Revis the pass defense is all screwed up. This game just smacks of 20-3. Besides as a friend told me, “I’m riding the Texans until they lose”. This seems like a good week to do it.

Ravens (-5) @ Chiefs

Arrowhead…blah blah blah…7 pt victory over the Browns blah blah blah…Look I clearly made a mistake on the Chiefs calling them division winners. That defense has been a total failure and the only team they’ve beaten is the hexed Saints. It’s nice Jamaal Charles is back and I know Baltimore  has also had a sneaky bad run defense but still the Chargers went into Kansas City and won by 17. The Ravens had ten days to prepare and I think they do this. You just worry about another, pull out just enough to win game like they had against Cleveland but it’s tough to factor that into play.

Packers (-7) @ Colts

I don’t really like this line but when 6 teams are out of consideration you have to start picking some tough lines. The Packers just simply haven’t looked great for 3 out of 4 weeks and the one week they looked great was skewed by it being a Thursday game. Even when people said well just wait for the Saints since they’ve played 3 good defenses, they didn’t look great. But I think we are getting a speed offense on turf against a team that hasn’t seen an offense of this caliber yet. While it also feels like bad karma to take advantage of a situation like this, Chuck Pagano, head coach of the Colts is out with leukemia. That’s not something that a team rebounds from quickly. I know they had the bye week but I just get the feeling the Colts might be seriously flat this game.

Chargers (+3.5) @ Saints

This is stupid. The Saints just can’t stop anyone when it counts. It’s not like I like the Chargers, but I am out on the Saints giving points until they can show they can win. After all they couldnt hold an 18 point lead against the Chiefs for crying out loud.

BONUS

Eagles (+3.5) @ Steelers

I hate the Steelers. I just don’t think they are any good. Of course I don’t trust the Eagles but they were just competent enough to beat the Giants which is a better team than both these teams. When I hate two teams, it’s never a bad option to take the points. I just happened to like the Chargers against the Saints while also getting the same points.

Last week: 5-0, Season: 10-5 (11-6 with bonus

Zebras Gone Wild

Ed. Note: This column except for the picks was written on Tuesday morning. Go figure the NFL would render it sort of moot by Thursday. Anyhow it's a blog and I still wanted to express my thoughts on it. 

Anyone who knows me well enough knows I will never blame a win or loss on a ref. Too many other plays have happened in the game for us to squarely blame the referees for blowing a crucial call. Referees blow calls all the time that help direct the outcome of a game, but the players still need to perform. While the replacement referees are really doing their best to change my philosophy, I'll still stick by my beliefs that a referee can never "give a game" to a team. To illustrate how staunch that belief is, I still refuse to place sole blame on the referees for Dallas losing the NBA Finals to Miami when Dwyane Wade was seemingly sent to the free throw line every time down the floor in the pivotal 5. The reality is Dallas had a chance to shut that series down in Games 3 and 6 and failed to execute. That's generally the issue, if you put yourself in a position to be "jobbed" by a referee it's because you failed to execute somewhere down the line. Take last night's game for example. A referee didn't allow Aaron Rodgers to be sacked 8(!) times. At any point, the Packers offensive line could have stepped up and moved them in position for one more field goal and last night's blown call may not have mattered. Or how about actually playing proper safety deep coverage and not allowing Russell Wilson and Golden Tate to hook up for a 41 yard TD pass when at that point Wilson had 17 yards passing. That's the troubling part of this. What should be a top story, the fact that Green Bay's offensive line is so bad that one of the elite quarterbacks may not survive the season for all the hits, is swept under the rug by the calls in this game. Packers fans need to worry more about that offensive line than any calls the refs made in that game.

That being said I think the worst aspect of these refs is not the terrible calls. After all the professionals make terrible "game-altering" calls all the time: The Tuck Rule game, Ed Hochuli's "forward pass" call in the Broncos-Chargers game that led to him being ridiculed, nearly every big call in the the Steelers/Seahawks Super Bowl, the Music City Miracle "lateral" that beat Buffalo in its last playoff appearance, hell they've even gotten a coin toss wrong. Bringing back the professionals won't eliminate horrible calls. They will happen. For some reason these replacement refs have done enough to make everyone forget that horrible pass interference and turnover class are the norm in the NFL.  Even the hit of Darius Heyward-Bey that everyone says should've been flagged may not have been called. The regular refs have often not thrown flags on illegal hits that were later fined.

No the real reason the lockout needs to end is for the administration, confidence, and pacing of the game. I've heard some broadcasters making excuses that hey don't blame the replacement refs they are doing their best and are unqualified to do the job. Being intimidated and blowing judgment calls on pass interference are one thing. Simply not knowing the rules is another. Allowing Harbaugh two, not one, but two challenges after he was out of timeouts is unacceptable. Being unable to mark off the correct yardage for an unsportsmanlike penalty is unacceptable. Allowing scrums EVERY...SINGLE...TIME after plays without flags is unacceptable. Taking 10 minutes to figure out where to mark the ball because you are simply unsure of the penalty rules is unacceptable. The Falcons-Broncos MNF game last week was nearly unwatchable for these reasons. Not because of any particularly bad call but because of the administration of the game. That's what's missing here and blame rests squarely on the replacement ref's shoulders. This is a golden opportunity for the refs to boost their reffing career. They obviously enjoy it as they are willing to subject themselves to the ridicule and intimidation every week. Why not take it seriously and learn the rule book? As I posted on Facebook last night 12 year old veteran Madden players have a better grasp of the rule book than these guys. They have now had 7 weeks of on the job training (4 preseason and 3 regular season) and they still can't get the rules right? That's the real travesty here and that's what is making the NFL borderline unwatchable right now.

Of course, the NFL and its hubris are also blameable, but they may be operating just as any other super powerful entertainment brand would in this situation. NHL is in a lockout, NBA is still weeks away from regular season games, 18 of the 30 teams in MLB are ostensibly eliminated from playoff contention, golf, nascar, and tennis seasons are all either over or winding down. What else are casual sports fans going to watch on Thursdays, Sundays, and Mondays? Estimates range anywhere from 27-36 million people play fantasy football. They aren't gong to stop watching. No amount of bitching is going to alter this situation when the NFL continues to have bottom line leverage over the officials. The statement is we don't give a crap if the sport is a circus, people watch and pay money anyway. And oh by the way, this is taking attention away from other issues Goodell doesn't want to talk about: concussions and Bountygate.

Basically as fans we have two choices as always. 1) Deal with it. 2) Stop watching. We love our teams and the diversions that football provides in terms gambling and fantasy sports too much to stop watching. So fans: deal with it. The lockout will resolve eventually and then at least football games may go back to being 3 hours, 15 minutes long instead of 3 hours and 30 minutes because these replacements waste 15 minutes administering the game. In the meantime stop complaining about horrible calls, they will still be ever present when the pros return.

Moving on to the gambling, I think after a few weeks we have really started to learn tendencies about teams and tendencies with how this season has been going. A key I have found with the lines is to be quick to change your bias. This was ever present in two of my picks last week. I abandoned the Titans (and really the Lions should have covered) and jumped on the Cardinals. I think these were two early season changes in thinking that well help my frame of mind going forward as I try to get a perfect week. Let's examine last week's picks:

Giants @ Panthers (Even) – I'm adding this to my gambling manual. Avoid all Thursday games this year. They are simply too unpredictable on the short rest. There was absolutely no reason for the Panthers to throw down that stinkfest on both offense and defense at home on national TV other than they were simply unprepared. The problem is you can never tell which team will be unprepared. Week 1 it was these same Giants at home, Week 2 it was the unstoppable Bears, Week 3 it was the much-healthier Panthers at home. As much as I'm tempted to pound the Ravens here at home against Cleveland, it would not shock me to see them unprepared and unable to cover. Especially after Sunday night's barnburner against New England. 

Falcons (+3.5) @ Chargers – Yup. I was rewarded in my justification of this pick. Atlanta is too good to be giving 3.5 points to anyone and San Diego was grossly overrated. 

Eagles @ Cardinals (+4) – This one felt good. It just felt good to totally nail this pick. It's not a shocker that I won, I'm just happy with method I used to get there. Changing biases so early in the season is tough, but you just had to after the Cardinals defense made Tom Brady look bad at home. That was no fluke. Making Michael Vick with a new center and no Maclin look bad was taking candy from a baby.

Texans (-2.5) @ Broncos – Texans scared me a little towards the end, but this is just a solid team. Very good up and down, they have to be the AFC favorites over my initial Ravens pick based on the defenses. Baltimore's is not good Houston's is. I could easily see Houston winning a 31-20 AFC title game against Baltimore or New England and it wouldn't even be that close. I'm glad I got the cheap line in this game. 

Lions (-3.5) @ Titans – Can't believe the Lions blew this. They had the seven point lead, relegated Chris Johnson to decoy and just needed to contain Locker. They couldn't and gave up 21 straight points. The some how came back, but couldn't finish the job with a TD in overtime that would've covered. I'm pretty out on both these teams at this point. 

Bonus Game!

49ers (-7) @ Vikings – Guess I should've made this a trap game. 7 may be too many points to ever lay for the 49ers. I know they've covered that line twice already this season, but you aren't so much betting on the 49ers to be an overall great team like the Texans, but rather you are flipping the coin that the 49ers can get up by 7 or 10 early and pin their ears back. This is a team that thrives on leads and struggles when trailing. If a team gets up 7-0 on the 49ers early you can kiss any -7 bet good. Good to know going forward. Also, every Vikings game spread at this point better be within 3 points in either direction. They have been in every game and have won 2 of them. 

Week 4's Picks (As always in order of preference)

Patriots (-4) @ Bills

Why? The Patriots have slaughtered a bad team, and barely lost to what may be two of the top 8 teams in the league (really depends on Kolb's growth). Now they can't beat a Bills team by more than 4 coming off of back to back losses in which the Patriots will almost certainly enter Eff-You Mode. The Bills on the other  hand got smoked by the Jets and beat the Chiefs and Browns, two teams that certainly haven't started strong. I like the Patrioits resume here and I like even more that New England really needs to blow out a team to get the Boston fans/media off their back.

49ers (-4) @ Jets

This is more like it. Alex Smith throws up a clunker and now the 49ers are only laying 4 instead of what should probably be 7 again. The Jets are not good, in fact they may be the worst 2-1 team out there. Sanchez was below 50% for much of the game against the Dolphins. I can't wait to see what the 49ers defense does to him. After all he's no Christian Ponder. Also I'm sure this line stays low under the whole west coast team traveling for an early game on the east coast doctrine, but I read somewhere Harbaugh is actually good in these games. He'll get the charges ready to go for this one. 

Giants (+2.5) @ Eagles

Why am I supposed to like the Eagles here? They continue to be a mess, Vick has turned into the Rex Grossman of 2012 with his incredible turnover rate. There is now 60 minutes of game film on how to beat the Eagles defense courtesy of Kevin Kolb. The Giants have gotten better every week this season and yet somehow they are given 2.5. Take the gift and run. Of course being a bitter NFC East game on national TV this has trap potential all over it. But I'll ignore it.

Vikings (+6.5) @ Lions

Everything everyone has watched form Minnesota has shown they can play with anyone so far this season. As I wrote above the Vikings games should only be 3 points either way until further notice. I think you get a free 3.5 points here. While it looks like Stafford may play the Lions have not been so dominant as to warrant this line. Barely beating St. Louis, getting drubbed for most of the game by San Francisco and getting down by as many as 2 tds in Tennessee. Detroit's defense is terrible and Minnesota's offense has been efficient. Grab me a shank of mutton and horn of ale for marauding Vikings!

Bengals (-2.5) @ Jaguars

There will be no bonus this week. This slate was tough and I have far less confidence in any other pick after those first four. Not too scientific about this other than Cincinnati's offense has been rolling the last two weeks and while their defense hasn't been good I don't know that Jacksonville's able to take too much advantage. As long as Cincy can contain MoJo I think they can win by a field goal.

Last week: 3-2 (3-3 with bonus), Season: 5-5 (6-6 with bonus)

Good luck to all you gamblers out there this week and hopefully we can all have a good time enjoying a better pace of play in the NFL with the pros back. 

Supercontest Week 3

So I didn’t perform terribad, but I wasn’t great last week. The rules of the Supercontest require me to submit all my picks before the Thursday game so that’s why this blog is up early. I think I’ll review last week’s picks before I jump into this slate. It may help me select better.

Ravens (+2.5) @ Eagles – So I won this one but not in the way imagined. The Ravens were obviously robbed by one of the worst calls in recent memory and certainly outplayed the Eagles. But who cares, I was right to trust in the Ravens getting points here and I won.  Ravens will be dangerous all weeks.

Chiefs (+3) @ Bills – Wow. Two teams have hung 35+ on the Chiefs, this time with defensive players back for Kansas City and the offense belonging to Buffalo.  I just don’t know what to think. Is Kansas City really that bad? Did I underestimate Buffalo at home? I have no idea only I guess it’s safe to trust neither team at this point.

Cardinals @ Patriots (-13.5) – So I figured out the trap. Arizona has a good defense. Certainly not elite, but good enough not to lose by 14 points. New England has O-line problems that may make it difficult to cover double digit spreads too. Nice to keep that handy.

Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Giants – Until the 4^th quarter the Bucs defense was solid. I won this one but not in the way imagined either. Tampa Bay may struggle to score this year. New York is going to score 20+ like every game.

Tennessee (+6) @ San Diego – Hahahaha. Tennessee is possibly the worst team in the league right now. Masked by the omnipresent criticism of Chris Johnson is the fact that the O-line sucks, Jake Locker is inaccurate and the defense is one of the worst in the league. I’m still not giving SD a pass especially since any team that gives up 3 TDs to Dante Rosario obviously sucks. San Diego clearly has not played anyone good yet based on Oakland and Tennessee’s current results.

This weeks picks!

Giants @ Panthers (Even) – Im taking the Panthers here. With the absence of a couple of skill position players, the Panthers may be able to tweak their defense enough to really slow down the Giants. Meanwhile Carolina is at home and New York simply doesn’t look poised to stop them.  New York travels on the short week and Carolina doesn’t. I just think Carolina has the edge and with an even spread that’s all I need.

Falcons (+3.5) @ Chargers – I simply don’t get this line. I don’t think the Monday night football turnover for Atlanta makes any difference here, and it is clear that San Diego has face neither an offense nor defense as good as Atlanta’s. I am all in on Atlanta and the fact I get points is a plus.

Eagles @ Cardinals (+4) – Sure Arizona can’t score that much, but I think I like my chances here with a home dog facing a team that just lost its starting center and turns the ball over more than anyone else. The starting center loss is a sneaky play here as the Eagles are already missing Jason Peters and center losses seem to cause chemistry issues on offense. I’ll bet the Eagles win this game, but not by more than 4. If Jeremy Maclin misses this game it’s a lock.

Texans (-2.5) @ Broncos – The Texans have flown under the radar early this season as they basically made no noise. They beat down handily two teams (Dolphins/Jaguars) they were supposed to. This is the first “test” for the Texans, but I think they are legit and one of the few solid all around teams in the league. Meanwhile Peyton, for really the first time in his career, is having to deal with constant performance questions based on his arm strength. I’m interested to see how he handles this, especially after the showing against Atlanta where he just looked confused for half the game. The Texans are the best defense he’ll see thus far (yes better than Pittsburgh’s) and he just wotn be able to come from behind for a 2^nd straight game.

Lions (-3.5) @ Titans – This barely made the list over the bonus game this week. I don’t love the Lions, but 

I did like their resolve against the 49ers last week in San Francisco on Sunday Night. The Titans simply have not been good on all sides of the ball. When that is the case you just feel fortunate this line is 3.5 and not like 6. Nothing scientific here, just that Tennessee simply doesn’t pass the smell test and the Lions can at least do one thing really good. The Titans can’t do anything mediocre.

Bonus Game!

49ers (-7) @ Vikings – I thought about making this a trap game but I didn’t have any good reasons why this was a trap other than the Metrodome roof collapsing. Sure the Vikes have AP, Harvin, and Ponder who looks like an ok QB (I thought he was a good choice after the draft), but the Vikes defense sucks and the 49ers defense has looked great. 7 is a lot, especially for a west coast team travelling for an early game, but the relative talent on the field and with the headsets are just grossly in the 49ers favor. I wasn’t confident enough to make it one of my picks but I think it’s a good bet.

It’s a trap!

Jets @ Dolphins (+3) – I don’t see how you can possibly bet on this game. Division game in Miami, Jets shellacked one team and then got shellacked by another. Ditto for the Dolphins. These are two mediocre teams that know each other well and anything can happen. Stay away, even from the Dolphins (+3), since you simply can’t rely on Tannehill. No dollars to this game.

Bengals @ Redskins (-3.5) – Simply can’t trust the Redskins here to lay the points missing two of their best defensive players. I’m sure the Bengals can’t stop Skins, the Skins may not be able to stop the Bengals. This has randomness written all over it even though the Redskins have surely looked like a competent team.

Packers (-3) @ Seahawks – I think this is pretty self-explanatory. Seattle, in primetime, at home. Earthquakes galore. Even though the Packers are certainly the better team, Vegas just sucks you into to only giving up 3 and next thing you know Rodgers and Co. can’t see muster more than 13 points for most of the game. I’m double down on the trap here with Seattle at home after last week.

Record: 2-3 in the Supercontest, 3-3 with the bonus.

Good luck to everyone as they wager their milk money this week!

Supercontest!

So I've been asked by some friends recently about spreads and bets in a variety of sports and I've been on a hot streak lately so I thought it was time to do my own Supercontest blog. Of course by doing this I doom myself to be terrible the rest of the football season but whatever, at least I don't have $1,500.00 on the line.
In case you don't know what the Hilton (now "The LVH" - sorry Hilton that doesn't hip Supercontest is go here: http://www.thelvh.com/supercontest

I meant to start this last week, but life gets in the way. Going forward I'll make sure to get these out, despite expecting my first born later this season. So the gist of this is, pick five games and choose one team based on the spread of the game. The interesting thing about this is the picks have to be in by 11am on Saturday, when we still dont know the status of all of our "game time decision" players. The LVH also sets the lines on Wednesday, when we know even less about the teams and the lines haven't been affected by bettor money. So pick your 5 favorite bets and lets get going!

Again, these are not the current lines as of today, but the ones in play for the LVH Supercontest in which I am pretending to be playing for a 440k payday. 

Ravens (+2.5) @ Eagles

I know I was in on the Eagles in my preseason picks, but I was also higher on the Ravens.  The Eagles almost let me down last week and almost make me want to change my division pick. I just don't know how Vick even stays upright this season if he is going to get hit like that against a no-named Browns front seven. What's Baltimore going to do to his this week? Meanwhile Baltimore was firing on all cylinders and looked every bit like the AFC favorite I think them to be. Philadephia is one of the least advantageous homefields (Eagles are 7-9 in the last two years v. 11-5 on the road) and Baltimore is one of the few legitimately dangerous teams on both sides of the ball.  Don't get me wrong I think Philly's defense is for real this year so this game should be close but I think Baltimore wins and in the process covers this spread.

Chiefs (+3) @ Bills

I firmly believe the Bills are as bad as they showed last week. They made some moves on defense in the offseason but they were still the worst scoring defense in the AFC last year. They just got shredded by Mark Sanchez. Mark Sanchez just shredded a team. It was the Bills. The Bills got shredded by Mark Sanchez. Just though I'd pound that in to anyone's head who sincerely thought the Bills were some kind of sleeper this year despite the fact they barely improved the worst defense last year and start Ryan "I...uh...broke my ribs, yeah that it's it!" Fitzpatrick. They gave up 48 points to the Jets. Just incredible.

Meanwhile the Chiefs also looked bad but were actually missing two very key defensive pieces against a team I though was actually good, the Falcons. The Chiefs boast at least two skill players (Charles and Bowe) better than any on the Jets and the Chiefs are just simply better than they looked last week. Hali and Flowers are back. Buffalo is awful. Goooooooo Chiefs!

Cardinals @ Patriots (-13.5)

This line has to have some kind of trap component to it. Kevin "deer in headlights" Kolb on the road against the AFC champs. West Coast team playing an early game on the east coast. Why isnt this line like 17? Do people really believe the Cards have a defense capable of stopping New England? Are the Cardinals really any better than the Titans? The Patriots handled the Titans by 20. I expect at least something similar here like 34-13 or 35-10 in this game and I think most of you are nodding your heads in agreement. Don't know what else to say except Kevin Kolb.

Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Giants

After those first three it gets hard for me to like any lines. So I'm going to spend the next two putting my money where my mouth is. I have Tampa as a playoff team and NYG not. So in that case why can't the Buccaneers stay within 7.5 even if they lose on the road? Add in the fact that the Buccaneers renewed defense shut down Cam Cam, the Giants also suck at home, the Buccaneers can run on teams, the Giants can be run on and lastly, Josh Freeman lost 30 pounds! Or something. Somehow thats a good thing, I think. Look I don't love this line, but I think based on Greg Schiano (candidate for this year's Harbaugh, where a good tough coach replaces a shitty coach) and the way these Bucs play, it's more likely they stay within this 7.5 than not.

Titans (+6) @ Chargers

I believe the Titans are better than they looked last week. Was it disappointing to see one of my AFC playoff teams get beat soundly at home on opening day? Yeah. But it's the Patriots. Knowing Belichick they've been game planning that game for 2 weeks. When Belichick gets 2 weeks he'll kill most other coaches. The Chargers barely beat a Raiders team hell-bent on giving them this game and only had one good offensive player. I know it was by 8, but still with all the long snapper issues and the way that game played out I just still absolutely do not trust San Diego. Besides, it's Norv Turner in September. This is totally a game everyone thinks they should win that they inexplicably lose because they are unprepared and Norv doesn't know what he's doing.

Bonus: So I'm not including it, but it was the one line I thought about over the Titans one.

Vikings @ Colts (+1)

I think, repeat think, the Colts will win this one. The Vikings are overrated and took overtime at home to beat what I think is a worse team than the Colts. The Colts started a rookie QB in the buzzsaw that is Soldier Field. The Vikings gave up Blaine Gabbert's best career game he'll ever have. If Luck can't duplicate then I'm out on Luck this year. What concerns me is that the Colts defense is one of those units that you just knew would be bad entering the season and was. Can Adrian Peterson single handedly win this game? It looks like it based on last week. I like Luck to come out in the home opener and win (the kid is no stranger to high pressure big games, I doubt he'll be phased by the jitters), but I was scared off enough by Adrian Peterson v. Indy Defense to back off this.

IT'S A TRAP!

Here a couple lines I think are total bettor traps for whatever reason. Im not telling you to be the underdog, just that the favorite lines represent traps that will suck bettors in that could destroy parlays.

Cowboys (-3) @ Seahawks

Based on Dallas walking into New York and throwing down a great performance and Seattle shitting the bed against the Cards, Vegas is urging you to parlay the Cowboys in every one of your parlays. Don't do it. Just like Seattle did last week, Dallas has kill all parlays potential this week. Seattle is easily the top homefield advantage in the league (Sorry, KC and Pittsburgh), just ask the New Orleans Saints how that earthquake caused by Marshawn Lynch and 70,000 Seattle fans felt. Seattle has a good defense and there are enough issues that cropped up in that Dallas/NYG game that I'm nervous about this game. The O-Line still looks shaky and Dallas still continues to commit way too many drive killing penalties. They almost did it last week when Witten held on the 3rd and 2 to ice the game and Romo had to bail them out with the best slant throw any NFL QB can make. Just stay away.

Broncos @ Falcons (-3)

Atlanta looked dominant on offense and walked into KC and threw down 40. Now they are home they have to be a shoe in right? Peyton Manning showed me more than enough last week to still fully believe in the following rules: Don't bet against Peyton on national TV and don't bet against Peyton indoors. This is Peyton's only indoor game this year and I think he can take full advantage. This game is a total toss-up but don't bet the Falcons thinking its too low of a line. The Broncos have a real shot to upset one of my NFC favorites in this particular circumstance.

Browns @ Bengals (-7)

The Browns have zero offense. Certainly the Bengals can win by 7. I think the Browns defense is grossly underrated and Bengals were less than overwhelming on either offense or defense against the Ravens. It's a divisional game and battle of Ohio. This line just might be too high or Weedon just might be bad enough that it doesn't matter. But if the Eagles couldn't cover 7, I doubt the Bengals can.

Good luck to you bettors out there!

Pigskin Prognostications!

It’s time for my prognosticating skills to be put to the test in the annual “What we know is we don’t know anything” predictions for the NFL. It is simply so difficult to know what is going to happen in any given NFL year.  Look at the Super Bowl last year.  We are looking at one Tom Brady completed pass to Wes Welker for a different champion. Every week some bounce of the ball, or roughing the passer penalty, or unfortunate injury turns the tide of a game. With only 16 games, these effects are greatly emphasized compared to the 82 game seasons of hockey and basketball, or the 162 game season of baseball.  For this reason let me just say, the NFL needs its refs back. I understand there is no such thing as a popular ref and we all hate them, but they are the best we have. If they weren’t they wouldn’t be there. While we have replacement refs we just add another element of randomness to the season. There is already too much in football. Bring back the refs!

Lets get started with the predictions shall we?

NFC East

Philadelphia 11-5

Dallas Cowboys 10-6

New York Giants 8-8

Washington Redskins 6-10

This division is a nightmare to predict. All four of these teams can win it and I wouldn’t be shocked. Sure I predicted Washington at 6-10, largely because I don’t have a ton of confidence in year 1 of RGIII and the Redskins are all assholes, but they definitely have talent and as I write this I may move them to 7-9. I think we would all be lying to ourselves if we didn’t think Philadelphia had the best overall collection of talent and coaching. Sure Andy Reid fucks up two minutes drills but when healthy the offensive skill players of the Eagles are easily the most explosive in the division. That’s saying a lot when you are looking at Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, DeMarco Murray, Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw, and David Wilson in the same division. I mean all of those players are fantasy starters including the Eagles’ foursome of Vick, McCoy, Jackson and Maclin and many of them in the top tier of their positions.

As much as I hate to say it I like the Eagles here because they have a full offseason to pull everything together that they brought in a hurried offseason last year. Desean Jackson looks focused and deadly. Vick will stay healthy enough for them to win 11 games. If Vick was an injury case this team could be 13-3 easy. The Cowboys come in as a team with as much talent but maybe some more question marks. I could see them at 8-8 again and I could see them at 12-4. Split the difference. Unfortunately, some things are cropping up that seem to never go away: an injured secondary, a Miles Austin hamstring issue, and the offensive line continuing to use the holding penalty as their best weapon against sacks. Just frustrating every year, but they have a softer schedule and I think 10 is appropriate.

The Giants were 9-7 last year, lets not forget that. Sure they won the Super Bowl, but they were a couple of blown coverages from Cowboys away from not even making the playoffs. I don’t see why this year’s regular season should be any different, especially with the first place schedule they have. Amazing pass rush and good passing game, but this team just isn’t any different from the one that barely squeaked in. I leave them out this year. Washington has some pieces to like and I think that defense this year will be good. It all hinges on RGIII being able to run the team all season. I just have little faith in it happening this year. Pierre Garcon as your best weapon doesn’t help either.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons 12-4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-6

New Orleans Saints 7-9

Carolina Panthers 6-10

Yep already busting out against the grain. Two years ago I told a good friend Tampa Bay is winning 10 games. They did. I have the same feeling about this team again. They spent some money and draft picks bolstering that offense and are praying that Schiano schemes up a better defense than they had last year. What’s helpful is I don’t think the South is as great as everyone claims it to be. The Saints just have a foul stink on them this year and I don’t trust them to be good this year. Carolina has done little in the off season to repair that horrible defense and the offense can’t expect to be any better than it was last year, they performed great. 

The Falcons though, I think are primed to cruise through the division. They look sleek and seamless on offense, basically Packers Light. The Packers defense was terrible last year and they went 15-1. I think the Falcons are going to emulate the Packers offense this year requiring little support from their defense. They are the 2^nd best team in the NFC.

For Tampa there are simply a lot of things to like about a huge bounce back. A weaker Saints team, a middling Panthers team, a legitimate WR, an actual 3 down RB, a new pro bowl guard, and most importantly a new tough minded coach. You see this every year, a team gets rid of a dog shit coach and replaces him with a new tough disciplinarian coach and they succeed. Look at the 49ers last year for example.

I simply think too much has gone wrong in New Orleans and they have had personnel defections and suspensions to deal with in addition to missing the head of the coaching staff. Sure Brees is back, but man this just feels like a giveaway year for the Saints.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 13-3

Chicago Bears 9-7

Detroit Lions 8-8

Minnesota Vikings 3-13

Packers are a dynasty.  That was an ugly playoff game they played last year but there are few teams that should compete with them and you don't win. Im not buying into the Bears as a playoff team. They have an above average offense but that defense is getting older and never seems to stay healthy, especially in the secondary. The Lions are ok, I think they played above and beyond their talent last year, and the defense is still terrible. Also, how long until the strength of that defense (the line) gets suspended for multiple games? Minnesota and Christian Ponder and not 100% Adrian Peterson all suck.

Chicago seems to be a big time dark horse team for talking heads and I just don’t get it. I think it’s the name brand that seems to sway people than the actual on field talent. Yeah Cutler and Marshall are reunited and Forte is probably a top 10 running back, but all of those players aren’t elite in my mind and will likely continued to be plagued by horrible O-line play. And they make up the more talented part of the roster. The defense was middling last year in terms of both scoring and yardage.  Nothing has changed on that side of ball. I just don’t see how this is a 10 win team.

The Lions simply lack enough defense to be consistent, that’s the end of the story. They will be able to score, but so will everyone they play. It doesn’t bode well for a playoff record. The Vikings are a mess and lack talent basically everywhere. Bring on Matt Barkley!

NFC West

San Francisco 10-6

Seattle 9-7

St. Louis 5-11

Arizona 4-12

While it doesn’t resemble the mess it was 2 years ago, this still rivals the AFC South for worst division in football. San Francisco fans have to expect a regression from a season in which everything when right, especially that enormous turnover differential.  Yes some of it is manufactured by the best defense in the NFL but they won so many games close late that the tide has to shift. A 3 game regression is expected.

I think Seattle is more talented than people give them credit for, until you see Russell Wilson starting Week 1. I loved him in college but this isn’t ideal for the Seahawks who are currently paying 2012 money to Matt Flynn and Tarvaris Jackson to not start for them. But Seattle has the best homefield advantage in football, a weak division, and some talent on all sides of the ball. Pete Carroll the GM may suck, but Pete Carroll the coach isn’t half bad.

St. Louis has nowhere to go but up. Injuries, injuries and more injuries really held this team down last year as Bradford spent much of the year throwing to players named Brandon Gibson and Danario Alexander until he was rescued with a midseason trade for Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd is gone again but there is some new talent there with Brian Quick and the other Steve Smith. I mean they have to go up from last year’s 2-14 record right?

I can’t tell which is worse, Arizona’s QB or their O-line. Kolb and Skelton are obviously bottom feeder quarterbacks in the NFL, but when you give them no time to throw…yeeesh. Given that they don’t have a top defense either, even in a crappy division, I can’t see them winning much. 4 may be generous.  

AFC East

New England Patriots 11-5

Buffalo Bills 7-9

New York Jets 7-9

Miami Dolphins 6-10

First one to 35 points wins in any New England game this year. More likely than not it will be New England. Sporting a passing attack with more weapons than even the Packers, they continue to have enough firepower to make up for what will again be a terrible defense. They did it last year, why not this year? While Brady and Belichick wear the red white and blue, this team is a lock for double digit wins every year. It sure helps when they have other excellent pieces around them.

I was ready to be sneaky and give the Dolphins consideration as a wild card team this year but not with Ryan Tannehill back there. The Dolphins were really good in the second half of the season with Matt Moore at the helm. Why blow it up for someone who isn’t Andrew Luck? The Bills are, well the Bills. They are about as obscure as a team now as the Seahawks, tucked away in the corner of the continent. The Bills sport (probably) the 2^nd best QB in the division and some talent on offense, but they were the AFCs worst defense last year and Stephon Gilmore isn’t enough to change that. But I’ll give them one more win than last year.

The best thing to do with the Jets is to wager when Tebow will start. The Jets offense has been comically bad in the pre-season for what its worth, but even last year they simply weren’t good. They lead off with Buffalo, @Pittsburgh, @Miami and Houston. There is a very real chance they go 1-3 or even 0-4 in that stretch. Is there a chance Tebow starts then? The sooner they get him in, the sooner they start winning. My guess is Tebow never starts this year without injury to Sanchez. The Jets are all in on Sanchez at least for this year. If he fails (which he will) then maybe Tebow gets a chance next year and can actually spend one full off-season and training camp in his career getting all the 1^st team reps, instead of getting backup reps or starting reps as a punt protector.

AFC  South

Houston Texans 11-5

Tennessee Titans 9-7

Indianapolis Colts 6-10

Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13

People seem to think this division is super terrible for some reason. Houston was probably the best AFC team last year and if they had Schaub may have been super bowl champs. They did have a lot of player defections including some pieces on the O-Line, Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans but they had a lot of talent on defense and I think they won’t miss a beat. That said they are the Texans and while they were good last year I still ahvent forgotten the last half decade of the shoulda-0been Texans. They just have a bad habit of losing games they shouldn’t have. They could be 14-2 or 9-7 and I wouldn’t be surprised one bit. 11-5 feels right.

I don’t really see how there is any real difference at this point between Jake Locker and Matt Hasselbeck. They didn’t have Kenny Britt for more than 3 games last year and Chris Johnons was simply awful all year and never rounded into shape. By all accounts their offense should be even better this year and they went 9-7 last year. I don’t get why people are writing them off so quickly.

The Colts were bad, but it wasn’t just Orlovsky syndrome. The defense was horrible, the O-line was bad and I’m not even sure they really employed a running back last year. Good quarterbacks can change the fortunes of a team super quickly. If Cam can take a horrible defense in Carolina and give them 6 wins, Luck can too.

Blaine Gabbert is the worst starting QB in the league. Hands down. But they do have a strong defense and a strong commitment to the run, so they wont be embarrassing as they lose 13 games this year. Next year if they have Barkley throwing to Blackmon I’d be happy to make this a good team.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens 11-5

Cincinnati Bengals 8-8

Pittsburgh Steelers 7-9

Cleveland Browns 4-12

I like Baltimore a lot this year, but their schedule is so tough. They were one horribly bad dropped pass from being in and probably winning the Super Bowl as well. I think this division is also overrated much like the AFC South is a bit underrated, and I think Baltimore will cruise to a title in this division easier than people think.

Cincinnati was a playoff team last year but I can see them regressing this year. They have a good defense and Andy Dalton did manage to prove some doubters wrong like me.  But I get the sense that the NFL is ready for these guys this time around. They have enough talent to be a playoff contender again but I just feel like with that increased difficulty in schedule (trading in the NFC West and a depressed AFC South for the NFC East and AFC West) they just fall short.

Pittsburgh is my team to fall off the map and it’s going to start offensively. They tried to repair a horrible line with DeCastro and he is already out for the season. No matter how tough and durable Ben is, you can only get hit so many times by NFL players before you break and he gets hit more than anyone. Look there is being 30 years old and there is being Ben Roethlisberger 30 years old. I have strong doubts about him even making it through 75% of the season. The schedule is tough and without Ben this team is god awful.

Cleveland. Underrated defense and possibly a decent running game gives them the same fighting chance as Jacksonville. I loved Weedon in college but he doesn’t seem to have grasped the NFL game. It’s nto like Cleveland has any other options. They’ll lose 13 games but I don’t think they’ll look Arizona or Minnesota bad doing it.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs 10-6

Denver Broncos 9-7

Oakland Raiders 8-8

San Diego Chargers 7-9

Look this is the most obviously wide open division in football and usually it can be a pretty fun division and I think this division will produce some of our best games this year. Odds are I have this division completely wrong, but I actually *cringe* believe in Romeo Crennel winning this division. Kansas City returns a wealth of talent from ACL blow outs, has probably the 2^nd best home field advantage and a slightly easier schedule and more talent on offense by default. I just think they are the most solid team in the division.

Peyton Manning in 2010 wasn’t the same as 2005. Why am I supposed to believe that he will be even as good as 2010? Now of course, he is a better QB right now than Tebow. No one can question that, but they won 4 games last year that wouldn’t win 9 out of 10 times and still only finished 8-8. They were a 5-11 team or 6-10 team last year and everyone seems to forget the absolute ass kicking they got at the hands of the Patriots in the playoffs. So I have enough faith in Peyton Manning to give them 3-4 more expected wins. But not enough faith to believe that they are all of the sudden in the same class as New England, Baltimore, and Houston.

Oakland is an enigma. I think they are solid on both sides of the ball. It all rests on Carson and while he of course has talent and youd probably rather have him than Gabbert, Ponder, Fitzpatrick, Cassel, Weedon, Locker, Tannehill and Wilson/Flynn, I just don’t believe hes good enough to get them over the edge and that’s all they need at this point, is a top 15 QB. Not this year.

I’m sick and tired of always hearing San Diego come up as a division winner or super bowl contender. They have m-fing Norv Turner as head coach. End of story. Why they brought back Turner again is simply beyond me. But this goes deeper than that. Their skill positions have deteriorated over the last couple of years. At his very best Ryan Mathews doesn’t present near the threat of LT. Antonio Gates is now 32 with two seasons of feet problems. Philip Rivers turns 31 this and has had his interception rate increase over the last two seasons and his velocity dip. There’s more to this. He was Drew Bledsoesque in the pocket when he was 23. At 31 he’s basically a statute back there. He’s definitely Roehtlisberger problems between his non-mobility and fading O-Line. I don’t think he’s ever the same again. The O-line has lost several key players from those mid-late 2000s team and the defense no longer has enough electric playmakers. Simply put this is just a mediocre team now and there is nothing on paper or on film last year that would make me believe this isn’t the worst team in the division.

NFC Playoff Teams: Eagles, Cowboys, Falcons, Bucs, Packers, 49ers

NFC Champ Game: Packers over Falcons

AFC Playoff Teams: Patriots, Texans, Titans, Ravens, Chiefs, Broncos

AFC Champ Game: Ravens over Patriots

Super Bowl: Packers over Ravens

It’s nice to have football back, enjoy the ride readers!

Needles and Pills

While preparing for my fantasy football drafts, like all my readers and millions of fans are out there doing right now, and enjoying another Rangers stretch we were hit with back to back positive tests for performance enhancing drugs in baseball.  Melky Cabrera and Bartolo Colon tested positive for elevated testosterone, received 50 game bans and luckily for the MLB and its fans both players had the grace to accept their punishments without a farce of an appeal or explanation such as “I took a tainted vitamin B pill unknowingly” or the successful Hebrew Hammer defense keeping my piss in a refrigerator over the weekend tainted my test and created a false positive.”  Sigh. We were treated to a fun after-the-fact story of Melky’s camp creating a series of fake supplement websites to try to create a successful we didn’t know it was tainted defense.  At least he admitted guilt before that story came out and he seems to have dodged blame for it.

That’s the good news, players actually admitting it.  As we have seen before with players like Andy Pettitte and Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz admitting to their use, fans seem eager to forgive. When you are Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens or Mark ‘Fifth Amendment’ McGwire and refuse to simply own up to what is plainly obvious, fans hate you for it. We as fans aren’t so naïve to believe that professional sports will ever be clean. There is simply too much reward for minimal risk at this point. When you come clean and don’t insult the fans’ intelligence we laugh at you, call you a cheater and move on quickly.

The bad news is, especially for such a statistically driven game like baseball, doping will be here forever. Say it Squints-style from The Sandlot “fffooooooorrrevvvvver”.  It’s the risk-reward I mentioned above.  For baseball especially its clear why a lot of athletes would take performance enhancing drugs at the risk of the stigma and suspensions that come with it. 

Let’s put ourselves in either Melky or Bartolo’s shoes.  Melky is 28 years old and finally eligible for free agency.  In baseball this is your first humongous contract. Why not take performance enhancers for a couple years around your prime age (to deflect some suspicion from improving stats) settle in to a 5 year 85 million dollar guaranteed contract and be set for life?  Baseball doesn’t test but a fraction of players at any time and you can roll the dice that the testosterone is out of your system at the time of tests.  

The same goes for Bartolo, only hes on a 1 year deal this year and 35 years old. Hes looking for one last multi-year, multi-million dollar contract to send him into retirement.  He has even less to lose by doing this (being paid so much over his career) compared to what he could gain otherwise. Sure his career may largely be over now, but so what? Without the drugs it may have anyway. For Melky, prior to last season he was a bench player looking to earn a bump over veterans minimums throughout his career. Why not take the two year risk and set yourself up for life?

The other thing is these drugs are used as much for recovery as they are for increased strength.  I play baseball currently at the spry young age of 30. 9 innings no matter what, no time limit, in 95 degree heat, once a week.  I got injured for 3-4 weeks. I can not imagine playing 10 straight games in the hot ass Texas summer in August after already playing 100 games in the season and not wearing down or being slow to recover from tweaks and strains.  Wearing down lowers your stats, prevents you from getting performance bonuses and gets you less at arbitrations and the open market. Why the hell wouldn’t you take drugs to lessen the impact of wearing down, or get you back on the field in 2-3 weeks instead of 4-6?

There is simply way too much money involved and not a lot of risk. Sure the first time costs you 1/3 of a season, but you aren’t banned. Someone will take a chance with you. It wont be a 5 year 85 million dollar contract for Melky, but rather a 2 year 20 million dollar contract since some GM out there wont believe that testosterone helped that much in Melky throwing up 53 hits in month of May. After all, most of that had to be because he is in his prime right? All the positive drug test did was make him cheaper for you.  Hell, even Manny at age 40 with two positive tests caught at least one flier.

Based on the foregoing, it is easy to understand why the players do it. Pious fans get up and rattle on about how can the players destroy the integrity of the game and asterisks and the like.  If any fan was presented with the choice of rolling the dice for tens of millions of dollars or being out of the league with no other life skills and fan would do it. Shit, we all start with nothing, but very, very few of us end up with even just a half million dollar a year salary.

With Major League Baseball still woefully behind the NFL in terms of number of tests, especially off-season tests where players build the muscle for the season, it is clear the players are still going to be encouraged to roll the dice. It’s a sad fact for baseball, but one I think will be around until MLB gets aggressive with either its punishment or testing protocol.  If baseball was ever to be believed for its tough stance on doping they would begin to adopt the doping protocols of the World Anti-Doping Agency and the punishments of the IAAF.  If you get caught as a track and field athlete you are banned for two years.  Obviously Major League Baseball knows that its star players dope.  With the sport sitting as the 3^rd most popular in the country on most polls, baseball can’t afford to ban players for two years.  So instead they keep the tests limited and the bans short knowing they’ll catch some people but letting others slip through every year to try to mollify the disgust at doping in baseball while preserving much of its star power.

For me, I think I watch the game, and all professional sports, under the assumption many players aren’t on the level. There is too much money at stake to be “honorable” and maintain a level of integrity most other fans seem to need. After all this starts at the high school level for kids who have no shot at a big time college career, not to mention a pro career. On my high school football team and wrestling teams I know for a fact several players hopped in a car, went down to Tijuana and got some “supplements”. It will always be there, and as long as we are entertained, and the journalists continue to safeguard the hall of fames from known dopers I think the system works. Just sit back and enjoy the ride.