2014 Pigskin Prognostication - AFC Edition

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In case you missed it, here is the NFC Preview. Now on to the junior conference of the NFL. The AFC managed to get everyone to a winner record for the playoffs but it was close with San Diego (9-7) squeaking out a spot just over Miami (8-8), the Jets (8-8), Pittsburgh (8-8), and Baltimore (8-8). The fact that Geno Smith went 8-8 in the AFC should be all you need to know about the relevant strength of the conference. Sit back, relax, and enjoy as we trudge through the murky swamp that is the mediocrity of the AFC. Again the number in parentheses is the current over/under win line for each team.

AFC EAST

New England 12-4 (11)

New York Jets 8-8 (7)

Miami 6-10 (7.5)

Buffalo 5-11 (6.5)

Boy, this sure looks familiar. The Patriots with 12 wins and no one else in the playoffs. Let's play a little which one of these is not like the others. Tom Brady, Geno Smith, Ryan Tannehill, EJ Manuel. Those are the Week 1 starting QBs. Is it any wonder why this division has maintained an incredible level of status quo?

You Boston area football fans have been wicked lucky. Since their first Super Bowl in 2001 they have enjoyed one of the best owners in football (Robert Kraft), one of the best coaches in the history of the game (Belichick), and a first ballot hall of fame QB (Brady). You know what they didn't need? A division that never challenged them. The Patriots level of divisional success is unprecedented, due in large part to that owner, that coach, and that QB, but also due significantly to a lack of a threat. No algorithms, metrics, or other advanced statistics needed here to make this prediction.

I like the Jets everywhere but at QB. I think they stick with Geno far too long before making the short term move to Vick and it's too late to recover. You could talk me into a 9-7 record, but either way they have made strides on offense adding a couple of playmakers in Eric Decker and Chris Johnson and Rex seems to have this defense humming again such that being the 3rd favorite in this division seems semi-crazy.

Miami is relying on a QB who can't seem to stay healthy, a head coach who has little control over his locker room, an offensive line with so many holes it will be a wonder that aforementioned QB makes it through 5 games and a defense that makes you say "Who?" Except for Cameron Wake, that guy is awesome. Nothing to see here, move along.

Yuck. Sorry upstate New York fans (and Toronto fans) but EJ Manual was a semi-bust in college, I'm not sure why anyone thought it would be appropriate to draft him in the first round in the NFL. Buffalo has some fun exciting guys at the skill positions like CJ Spiller and Sammy Watkins, if they can stay healthy, but they need someone to get them the ball and keep the defenses honest. EJ isn't that guy. This defense could rank in the top half, but isn't so much of a game changer that they can win on that alone. Another year, another missed playoff.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis 10-6 (9.5)
Tennessee 7-9 (7 - For these purposes lets go under)

Houston 7-9 (7.5)

Jacksonville 5-11 (5 - For these purposes lets go over)

Another one of those default divisions where you can play the whole QB game again we just played in the AFC East. Andrew Luck v. Jack Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Chad Henne. That might actually be worse than the AFC East.

By the way, before I make my predictions before I look at the over unders, this one is kind of uncanny with how spot on I nailed what Vegas think, which almost assuredly means at least one of these picks is going to be REALLY wrong. I don't like Indianapolis that much and if any of these other teams had any competency on offense I might pick them over Indy. Andrew Luck is force unto himself, but that line sucks, and that defense sucks. Andrew Luck is the reason they beat teams they shouldn't have, but the rest of the team is the reason why they lost games they shouldn't have. 10 wins is generous, but Andrew Luck is probably worth that amount.

All rides on what is usually an above average defense and then an offense that might generate just enough. When Jake Locker is healthy he seems to be able to move the ball well but he just can't. Their skill position players are below average between Shonn Greene, rookie Bishop Sankey, second year wideout Justin Hunter and "veteran" wideout Kendall Wright. Just not a lot of wow factor on this team.

Houston will be better than their 2-14 record last year, you can bet your car, your house, your retirement, your wife,your husband, your kids, your life, etc... on that. But with Gary Kubiak gone and Matt Schaub replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick (yeah, that's not an upgrade) they won't score. So just enjoy they insane havoc JJ Watt and JaDeveon Clowney wreak on opposing QBs.

Jacksonville won't be the laughing stock of the AFC, but they will be close. I like what Gus Bradley does there and about half way through the season the team started to buy in when they went 4-4 over the last eight. Of course you can't go far with Henne and Gabbert. Bortles looks better than the other rookie QBs this year but it's been against 2nd-3rd stringers. Also they have a white running back as their 3 down back. Go get em Toby! Defense doesn't have a lot of playmakers but Gus might get em playing good team defense. Either way this is a 5-6 win team until Bortles grows up into an above average QB.

AFC NORTH

Cincinnati 12-4 (9)

Baltimore 9-7 (8.5)

Pittsburgh 7-9 (8.5)

Cleveland 4-12 (6.5)

Talking heads have made this maybe the 3rd or 4th best division in football as if it was a given, but I think this division is an example of too much deference to popular teams such as Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Cincinnati, who gets little recognition beyond the routine Andy Dalton bashing actually walked away with this division easily last year and I see no reason why they should not again this year. 

A dirty little secret from last year is that Cincinnati actually had the 4th best point differential at +125. That's an average of 7.8 points that Cincinnati outscored its opponents over the entire 16 game season. That's some dominance. Why shouldn't they be just as good (11-5 last year) or better this year? I understand Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis aren't the sexiest coach/QB combos out there, but his team is loaded with talent everywhere. On offense they boast the electric Giovani Bernard and the elite AJ Green, in addition with athletic two TE sets that create mismatches. On defense, Marvin's specialty, they had the best defense in the AFC last year on a PPG basis and return studs like Geno Atkins (who missed half the season last year) and Vontaze Burfict and replacing ancient by DB standards Terrence Newman with first roudn pick Darqueze Dennard. 9 seems so low for their over/under when they return nearly every starter from their 22 last year.

Baltimore has the pleasure of two coaches who know what their doing with the better Harbaugh coach patrolling the sidelines and Gary Kubiak where he belongs in the offensive coordinators booth, but I still think they will be limited at the offensive line like they were last year causing the Baltimore offense to be one of the worst int he league. Not much has changed personnel wise from last year (except adding Steve Smith) so Kubiak can only scheme so much. The defense returns mostly intact from a year ago and will do their part to keep teams in games. 

I'm not sure why I'm supposed to like Pittsburgh. They have been 8-8 two years in a row and aren't going anywhere with what they have talent wise, and it starts defensively surprisingly enough. The secondary that was once vaunted with Ike Taylor, Ryan Clark, and Troy Polamalu is now old and that age showed up big time last year. They also lack a true talent as a pass rusher with Jason Worilds as their sack leader with a paltry 8. Notwithstanding the Bell/Blount blunt issue (haha) I don't see Pittsburgh's offense exceeding its middle of the pack production last year. You could talk me into another 8-8 season but I thought to hammer home the point they weren't finishing above .500 this year. 

Cleveland isn't going anywhere until their QB situation changes. It's a shame since they have a lot of talent EVERYWHERE else, but Brian Hoyer has looked rattled and lacking in confidence following the Manziel hype and Johnny was never a first round pick in the first place. Did you see him with Gruden when asked to name a complex play? Johnny has years to go before I'd trust him with the ball. The NFL isn't a playground and it's often times why the best QBs aren't the most athletic ones who rely solely on physical gifts, but study the game hard and are smart about it. If Hoyer continues to uninspire, he'll be out no later than half way through the season and as soon as Johnny steps out there they will struggle to win even one more game. 

AFC WEST

Denver 13-3 (11.5)

San Diego 9-7 (8)

Kansas City 7-9 (8)

Oakland 5-11 (5 - Over for these purposes)

The only division last year to produce 3 playoff teams is headlined by a Super Bowl favorite again this year and two other teams in San Diego and Kansas City who have their own aspirations for a playoff repeat. Oakland will be a tough out and are headed int he right direction but if Derek Carr is going to be the real deal, sitting behind Schaub and learning what not to do will go a long way towards his and the Raiders' development. 

There isn't much to say about Denver. With Peyton at the helm his teams will always be a favorite to win 11, 12, 13 games. They added some big name talent on defense, but there are various reasons they were all available such as age and lack of versatility (DeMarcus Ware) or head cases (Aqib Talib) but lost some good players such as Rodgers-Cromartie and Shaun Phillips. Overall I think the defense does just enough to get Denver back to 13 wins and the Broncos offense doesn't miss a beat. 

San Diego has some interesting talent everywhere and saw a revival of Philip Rivers under Ken Whisenhunt (who is no longer with the team) but I find it hard to believe Mike McCoy will mess with success. The team has a competent stable of running backs, Keenan Allen who finished 2nd to Eddie Lacy in offensive rookie of the year voting last year, an of course Antonio Gates passing the torch off to hyper talented but raw LaDarius Green. The defense wasn't great statistically but finished the year very strong in their playoff push including holding Peyton Manning to 20 and 24 points in Week 15 and the divisional round of the playoffs last year. No real changes to the unit beyond draft picks means I expect it to be fairly competent as well. I feel like in the AFC just being competent on both sides of the ball will lead to a playoff spot.  

Kansas City won 9 games in a row last year to start the season. They played one playoff team, Philadelphia, who hadn't found its stride yet in Week 3. In its final 7 games it played 5 games against would be play off teams and lost all 5, granted Week 17 against San Diego they mailed it in because their seed was set, but the proof in the pudding as they say. The road gets much tougher this year including out of conference games against New England, San Francisco, Seattle, and Arizona, in addition to two tilts each against the Chargers and Broncos and a road game against fellow mediocre team Pittsburgh. That defense will still be good, but lord help me Jamaal Charles is going to have to be 85% of their offense this year due to a sheer lack of talent everywhere else on offense. Sorry but regression is in the cards. 

Oakland is moving in the right direction making smart decisions such allowing Matt Schaub to take his lumps while Derek Carr relearns a pro system similar to that he played in his first couple of season at Fresno State, and taking hyper talents defensive players like Khalil Mack whom Urban Meyer said was the best defensive player he played against last year, including all the first round defensive talent from the Big 10 that went in the draft this year. Oakland still has too many warts and too much slop to muck out of this roster from the previous regimes, but they are headed in the right direction.

Playoff Teams: New England, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Denver, San Diego

AFC Champ Game: Cincinnati at Denver

AFC Champ: Denver

Super Bowl: Chicago v. Denver 

NFL Champ: Denver in one of the most entertaining Super Bowls ever. 

There you have it folks, no need to play the games, the result is preordained, give Peyton that trophy. So being the NFL, logic rarely takes hold and if the Super Bowl ends up being Indianapolis v Arizona I wouldn't bat an eye. Enjoy the season, enjoy your betting, enjoy your fantasy, the NFL is only great because of these other distractions that allow us to be more engaged and wanting more after that 7 hour binge on NFL Redzone. Can't wait to see how right am I this year. 

2014 Pigskin Prognostications - NFC Edition

Thought it was about time I pulled my fortune teller's hat out of the back of my closet and publish for the world to see my genius in predicting the NFL season. You know, that sport that turns over playoff teams faster than your neighborhood Walmart turns over employees. I thought I would get crazy here and do my predictions before the 3rd week of the preseason ends when we have a good idea as to the Week 1 injury report and how many of the key position battles will end. I do this because I want my predictions to be ever more impressive and to give me a built in excuse if Andrew Luck tears an ACL next week. 

This year ill put my predicted records as well as the current Vegas win total over/under numbers for each team in parentheses. At the end of the year I'll how I would've done placing a future bet on each team's win total. 

NFC EAST

Philadelphia 9-7 (9 - for this purpose I'll take the over)

Washington 8-8 (7.5)

Dallas 7-9 (7.5)

New York Giants 5-11 (8 - hahaha)

So, this division sucks for a second year in a row huh? By facing the brutal NFC West, and the terrible AFC South, the out of conference schedules balance each other out so no one's totals are deflating or inflated for schedule. 

I don't think Chip Kelly's offense was a fluke and I think we'll see some wrinkles in it we didn't see before. Foles has to regress from his ridiculous 2nd half last year and replacing DeSean Jackson with Darren Sproles and whatever they end up getting out of Jeremy Maclin might not work as well as Chip hopes. The defense isn't any better than the mediocre unit they were a year ago. I think the Foles regression is worth 1 more loss than last year but they have to be the best team of the bunch in this division. 

This is all based on Washington's offense exploding under Jay Gruden, with a 100% healthy RG3 and more weapons at his disposal. Washington gave up the 2nd most points on defense last year, and may have made a couple of slight upgrades but nothing to write home about. This is a big 5 game jump from last year, but I believe that anyone that can turn Andy Dalton into a winner can do some magic with RG3 (or Cousins).  

For Dallas they will have an elite offense if Romo and Murray stay healthy. They have invested heavily in that O Line and have three offensive play callers on the sidelines with Garrett, Callahan, and newly acquired Scott Linehan. Might be an all time great offensive season in Dallas history, because it has to be. The defense is no better than last year and they have already lost three key starters for anywhere from 4-16 games this season. But, I actually think they plugged some holes better than people might be giving them credit for and the defense won't be as calamitous as projected. That said, it's no better than last year's dung heap so I give a 1 game regression from last year accounting for potential Romo back issues. 

The Giants suck. Besides saying they will get the ball out of Eli's hands super fast this year tell me what has changed from last year's team to this year's team? Rashad Jennings? Washed up Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie? Yeah, I have no faith in this team. Definitely is not an 8 win team. That's my favorite bet of the division for over-unders. 

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints 11-5 (10.5)

Carolina Panthers 9-7 (8.5)

Tampa Bay 7-9 (7 - For these purposes I'll take the under)

Atlanta 6-10 (8.5)

Vegas sees this as a fairly tough division, but I don't buy it. I don't think we will see a bounce back from Atlanta and a regression from Carolina is due. Out of conference schedules against the NFC and AFC North gives very few cupcakes outside of the division. 

New Orleans is the cream of the crop for sure. Drew Brees thinks he'll play until he's 45 and I don't see why not unless his arm halls off. With the exception of horrible helmet to helmet calls (49er fans know what Im talking about) Brees doesn't get hit often and with Sean Payton pulling the strings it will not be any different. The loss of Sproles is filled by Brandin Cooks, who although a rookie, will be able to do the super athlete things Sproles used to do. This is probably a top 3 offense this year against 3 other in division teams that may have some offensive impotence. Note: Drew Brees only plays two potential cold outdoor games in the regular season: at Pittsburgh Nov. 30 and at Chicago Dec. 15 (foreshadow alert: I think this is a big game for playoff seeding). 

I don't have the same sky is falling mentality about the Panthers receiving corps as many did. After all, Steve Smith can't have much left in the tank and we are supposed to cry about Brandon LaFell leaving? They will be alright, but I think along the lines of Tom Brady, Cam will have a big time adjustment period with so many new players. I also think Greg Hardy may not see the field the first month of the season due to a possible upcoming suspension, although that could be delayed now that Goodell is trying to appear to care about domestic violence after fumbling the Ray Rice thing. Either way I think Carolina starts slow before recovering for a winning record. 

Tampa Bay fielded the third worst offense in football last year, but there is reason for hope that they won't need to score much. They got rid of Greg Schiano and replaced him with Lovie Smith and then picked up a bunch of impact players on defense. This is a good job by the Bucs GM recognizing the easier path to success was not fixing what was a horribly broken offense last year, but tweaking a defense that can do just enough to keep you in games, that is Lovie's specialty. Before you think I'm crazy about a Bucs 3 game gain over last year's 4-12, the over on 7 is the favorite bet. 

Mike Smith might be seeing the hot seat after this season. Atlanta's offensive line may have serious issues (especially after losing its starting LT) a year after it was already bad. I am not confident in the health of Roddy White, Julio Jones, or Steven Jackson. With Gonzo's retirement, Atlanta might actually have a terrible offense at various points this season. I think 8.5 is too generous. 

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears 12-4 (8.5)

Detroit Lions 10-6 (8.5)

Green Bay 9-7 (10.5)

Minnesota 3-13 (6)

I think this will be one of the most fun divisions to watch this year. Gone is the era of the black and blue division. This is all about finesse and throwing points up on the board in bunches. If you live in the North Midwest, sit back, buckle your seatbelts, and enjoy the ride. 

I am all in on Marc Trestman Year 2. This is a big leap of faith that Cutler stays healthy for 16 (or even 14) games, but I just have this magical feeling about them. They very well could have the best offense in the league, which is crazyspeak for any Chicago Bears offense. What sets them apart from the rest of the division is a revamped D-Line that will have the fun task of coming after the QB fairly often as their offense puts the opposing team in obvious passing situations to play catch up. I'm buying big on the Bears over 8.5. 

I think Detroit has had 10 win talent for a few years now but their coach was so bad and the discipline so non-existent that Detroit couldn't live up to its potential. While Jim Caldwell isn't flashy, he certainly won't tolerate the penalties and undisciplined play from Matthew Stafford they've gotten. I expect them to follow through on their promise this year and make the playoffs. 

Green Bay is always the sexy pick thanks to Aaron Rodgers but I actually don't think they stack up on defense nearly as well as the two teams above them and Green Bay hasn't really been dominant since the Super Bowl several years ago. They went 8-7-1 last year with a negative point differential. Assuming better health for Rodgers I moved the tie to a win, but they aren't very good on defense and I doubt that they'll be able to keep up with some of the other high powered teams. 10.5 just seems way too high for such a bad defense (only gave up 4 fewer points than Dallas last year).

Minnesota is probably the worst team in the NFC. Which is too bad, Adrian Peterson barely got the chance to shine in his prime (2009 when Brett Favre ruined his 122 yd 3td performance in a completely Brett Favreian way against New Orleans). Now it appears he'll ride out his last couple years of relevance with crappy QB play. If Norv Turner does anything with this team as the OC it will be pretty amazing. 6 wins isn't a bad line, but I just have a feeling Minnesota won't be able to break through often against many superior teams. 

NFC WEST

Seattle 11-5 (11 - Over for these purposes)

Arizona 10-6 (7.5)

San Francisco 9-7 (10.5)

St. Louis 8-8 (7.5)

Obviously the class of the NFC is the West. Last year's two best teams and the year's biggest playoff snub are all found in this division. And then you have the Rams who are just some competent QB play away from possibly storming up the ladder after they have really solidified the trenches on both sides. 

Seattle has to still be the favorite although I don't think enough is being made of the diminishing passing game weapons. They have the home field advantage and the phenomenal defense, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few upsets this year because they can't score on some days. It will also be interesting to see how the physical secondary takes to the new penalty emphasis on physical CB play, which the NFL should just be honest and call it the Seahawks Enforcement Protocol. Still, they are young, they are the defending champs, and with Pete Carroll at the helm, they will know how to avoid the dreaded plague of excess where everyone tells them how good they are all year and they play poorly because they think they can just show up.

I believe in Bruce Arians. I'll ignore the fact I'm picking a Carson Palmer led team to the playoffs. I believe in Bruce Arians. I'll ignore the fact that one of the sparks to their fantastic defense, Tyrann Mathieu, may not be the same speed he was last year. I believe in Bruce Arians. I'll overlook the fact they are putting so much of their offense in the hands of a a sub-200 lb RB. I believe in Bruce Arians. No team will be more motivated after what happened last year to make the playoffs and I think this team can be scary. Yes, I believe in Bruce Arians. 

No, all of my San Francisco fans who read my blog, I am not trying to troll you. I, and you, should have very serious concerns about the defense. Navarro Bowman is gone for a long time. Aldon Smith is gone for a long time. Glenn Dorsey is gone for a long time. Donte Whitner is gone and the rest of the secondary outside of Eric Reid is in flux. This will not be the same 49ers defense we've seen the last 3 years. Which puts it more on the offense and specifically on Harbaugh and Kaep to figure it out. I wonder how well this offense will play when it plays from behind double digits as I think they will find themselves more often than the last couple of years. I'm just not sure how comfortable Harbaugh and Roman are getting into shootouts. The margin of error is so small in this division, that missing so many key defensive players for so many weeks will put San Francisco in that Carolina camp of falling behind early and scrambling to catch up. 

St. Louis is a total wild card. Much of it depends on Sam Bradford. I think we have enough evidence to show he's a bust as a #1 overall pick, but has also shown enough ability to get it done. If he stays healthy and continues showing that ability to get it done, St. Louis is a surprise team for sure as they have such a good D-line and very strong O-line, and of course a coach you can trust in Jeff Fisher. But I'd like them more if they weren't playing Seattle, Arizona, and San Francisco 6 times this year. 

Playoff Teams: Philadelphia, New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit, Seattle, and Arizona
NFC Champ Game: Seattle at Chicago
NFC Champ: Chicago

And with that I've stuck my head out there for the NFC. The AFC will come later this week.