Unhappy Valley and What We Learned This Last Month 11.11.11

First, I apologize to my devoted readers for a lack of posts for a month. Life happens sometimes. Let's get down to business:

It's unavoidable. You can not discuss the current college football landscape without devoting time to the Penn State scandals. I have debated how to handle this particular topic and I think after a little bit of reflection I think the whole thing is just sad. How sad? Every single party involved in this story has done things the wrong way. Let's start at the top.

Jerry Sandusky - This guy is fucked up in the head, if the allegations are true. . Plain and simple. How fucked up? If you can stomach it, here is the graphic representation to what he did to 8 (known) young boys, none of which was older than 13 at the time of the alleged abuse: http://www.freep.com/assets/freep/pdf/C4181508116.PDF

That's the indictment handed down by the Grand Jury that is the root of this story. I think the most disgusting part of this is the man sets up a program in the 70's called The Second Mile which was supposed to provide support to children struggling with poor, broken or negligent homes. These are boys who are already emotionally weak that are being preyed on by Coach Sandusky. If you believe in this sort of thing, there is a special spot in hell reserved him, if the allegations are true.

Administrators at Penn State - Athletic Director Curley, Vice President Schultz, and President Spanier have no right to continue leading a well-regarded public institution of higher learning. If the allegations are true these men owe every boy molested after 1998 more than an apology. Why? Well, they all acknowledged that Coach Sandusky was investigated for the oldest incident referred to in the indictment which occurred in 1998. Regardless of the level of inappropriate touching that occurred (which in the indictment refers to at least naked "bear hugs" in the shower), Sandusky should have been stopped there. Even without criminal charges, adminsitrators who should be looking out for the best interests of not only the University, but children introduced to the University, should have distanced themselves not only from Sandusky but from The Second Mile which called Penn State its home. They did neither, instand accepting Sandusky's retirement and negotiating a package that allowed Sandusky free range to continue using the same facilities where much of the alleged abuse occurred, and where the worst of the alleged abuse would occur in 2002.

This is what makes the culture of the administrative staff of Penn State so repugnant. In 2002, according the grand jury, then-graduate assistant Mike McQueary, first heard, then witnessed Sandusky having anal sex with a boy estimated to be 10 years old in the football locker room showers. While McQueary's conduct will be reviewed shortly, he indicates that he did inform his father, who then encouraged him to report the incident to Coach Paterno. He was also interviewed by the above administrators and testified that he told them the extent of the contact. The administrators tell a different to the grand jury, a story that the grand jury find so incredible that both Schultz and Curley have been charged with perjury. Schultz and Curley allege they were only told of horseplay in the shower. Regardless, their proposed course of action, later ratified by President Spanier, was to tell Sandusky not to bring children on campus anymore and took away his shower key. Curley and Schultz later testify they knew these provisions to be unenforceable.

Are you fucking serious? High level administrators of a public institution thought it wasn't prudent to report this conduct (even if it really was only reported to this as horseplay) to anyone? Even in light of the very recent 1998 investigation of the same guy for the same type of conduct in the SAME FUCKING PLACE???? These men are every bit as culpable for every other instance of abuse taking place on Penn State's campus after that 1998 investigation, which is at least 3 known victims who were abused in the Penn State showers, and another to be abused at Sandusky's home and at the victim's high school as recently as 2008 or 2009. Good riddance to all three of you.

Coach Joe Paterno - This is the saddest section for me to write. Coach Paterno represented all that was right with college football. Penn State never had a sniff of scandal with its program in the 40+ years he lead the program. They produced wonderful talent on the field and emphasized being good citizens off the field. You never hear about suspensions either at the college or pro level for Penn State athletes for off the field conduct. It was THE model program in modern collegiate sports and it was still widely successful, even this year, with a current 7-1 record and a decent shot at the Big 10 title despite being unranked to start the season. All reports indicate Paterno to be a model citizen and demanded the same from his student-athletes. Paterno's conduct in this event basically shatters any illusion, whether rationally or irrationally, that there is anything good left in collegiate football. If the coaches aren't violating numerous NCAA rules, or the players taking 100 dollar handshakes and free stripper parties, the "good" men in charge of instilling life long values into their student athletes are refusing to follow their own lessons.

I am saddened with what I read about Paterno's conduct. Informed of the 2002 incident by Coach McQueary, Paterno decided the appropriate thing to do was "pass the buck" onto the school administrators who clearly proved themselves incompetent after failing to remove Sandusky from Penn State altogether after the 1998 investigation. You would think if any man in college sports would do the right thing it was coach Paterno. I understand that it involved a very close friend in Sandusky, a man who coached along side him for 30(!) years. But Coach Sandusky was no longer Coach Sandusky and honestly Coach Paterno owed that child in 2002 much more than he gave him.

What I think makes the conduct more reprehensible is based on speculation, but Coach Sandusky abruptly retired in 1999 after being told by Paterno that he was no longer the "coach-in-waiting". The timeline is far too coincidental, but I believe, and many others do as well, that the reason for this stemmed from the 1998 investigation. Coach Paterno knew of the 1998 investigation and that probably spurred the move away from Coach Sandusky, yet, when presented in 2002 with another chance to properly report his conduct, Coach Paterno passed the buck. It's sad to think that Coach Paterno after 40 years of extolling more than just football wisdom would fail in his own lesson, but he did, and unfortunately I think he is as culpable as those despicable administrators.

Graduate-Assistant McQueary - Coach McQueary was the wide receivers coach at Penn State for the 2011 season, but at the time of the 2002 incident he witnessed he was a graduate assistant with the program. If Coach McQueary's testimony is turthful, and the grand jury found it to be so, he at least did not sugarcoat the event. What he did fail to do was rescue a kid with a grown man raping him, or contacting the proper authorities. Sandusky was no longer a coach with Penn State (even though he was a coach at the time McQueary was QBing for Penn State in the late 90's) and had no reason not to immediately call the cops. It was another failure in judgment that allowed Sandusky to continue doing what he did and making at least one more known victim after this incident. A call to the police would have ended Sandusky's reign of terror of vulnerable boys right then and there. Yet at least another kid was allowed to be abused because McQueary as a 28 year old man couldnt call the cops on child rape. The trustees erred in not firing his ass, but all was made right as McQueary is no longer coaching for Penn State and now is in hiding under protective custody like some mafia rat. Good riddance.

The Media - The media did a poor job reporting this incident and it is partly their fault and their fear of what has become an overly sensitive American society for helping incite the riots. The media never let on as to the severity of the conduct by Sandusky or the absolute failure of administration by all of those mentioned above, yet inflamed the passions of a nation that relies on the media to actually tell them the news and muddling the story to the point that Coach Paterno was villain number 1. I understand the angle, it's Joe Paterno for crying out loud, but the poor level of reporting as to the severity of the actions led in part to the rioting at Penn State. The media is charged with reporting the news and as disgusting as it is, the media and the public can not be afraid to know that Sandusky allegedly raped a 10 year old boy, forced oral copulation on others, and at a minimum rubbed his naked body on the naked body of several young boys. Tell it like it is media, that's your job. Who cares if the news isn't exactly PG? Real life is not PG. If you reported the news accurately, Penn State's student body may not have rioted that night when Paterno was rightly fired.

The Trustees of Penn State University - I know, let's have a press conference at 10pm on a Thursday night (a prime drinking night for students) that inexplicably allows non-credentialed students in the conference and announce that we told Joe Paterno he is fired over the phone. Whose brilliant idea was this? First, even though his conduct was reprehensible, Paterno gave so much to the University he deserved the dignity of being fired to his face. That has to be at least partly responsible for inflaming the passions of the students. But the manner in which this was all hastily put together was completely irresponsible. This was a decision that was not so urgent as to require a response at 10pm on Thursday night, a response at 10am on Friday would have worked just as sufficiently and allowed the Trustees to prepare for any fallout from the announcement.

Instead the Trustees lacked the foresight to believe that firing the most legendary Penn State staff member over the telephone wouldn't cause drunk students to get rowdy. Are you kidding? Of all the living collegiate coaches maybe only Coach K at Duke is more famous. The Trustees should have given themselves a chance to prepare, instead the campus was caught off guard and allowed for a riot to take place. It's clear that ALL the leaders of Penn State University have no fucking clue what they are doing. If I was a Penn State student I would want a refund on my administrative fees, because they are obviously not going towards paying competent people.

Penn State Students - Demonstrating is one thing, rioting like Vancouver is another. Educate yourselves before you start burning and damaging other people's property. I understand the media did a poor job telling you the real story, but the news was out there. Plus, even though the Occupy Wall Street movement may be aimless and disjointed, the reason it still has legs is because it's non-violent. You shamed yourselves and your University which has already done so much to shame itself. If you pushed over a news van or danced on top of car, grow up. You only serve to marginalize yourself.

In the end the real tragedy is that these kids from underprivileged or broken backgrounds were made to be victims by the head of the very organization that was supposed to help them. The other adults put in place to help protect them turned the other way and allowed these 10-13 year old boys to be sexually abused in a manner that they may never recover from. Of all the parties in this incident, it's sad that the only party that did no wrong was the victims, because in reality they couldn't help themselves.

Penn State, the model of how a good program can operate legitimately, still failed in living up the lessons it extols every day to dozen of students. It's a sad day for not only college football, but really the human race.

In other news, there is still a BCS race going on. Oklahoma is out, just as I predicted. Even if several other teams like Stanford and Oklahoma State lose, they will never recover from a home loss to unranked Texas Tech.

Unfortunately, I also had the second half of my BCS title game wiped out last weekend. In what was billed as a possible "Game of the Century" Alabama lost an overtime heartbreaker to LSU in Alabama, 9-6. This is where I regret not blogging the last month, because I told my brother that any spread on this game larger than 3 is stupid because the score is going to be 12-9. The game involved the two best defenses on paper, offenses who can run but will struggle to pass. Meaning some yards can be gained but you can't expect much scoring. And that's what happened. LSU has demonstrated this year time and again they are the team to be reckoned with and dismantling what might be the best of the Pac-12 on a neutral field, the best of the Big East on the road and the other possible best in SEC on the road, they earned that #1 ranking. Assuming no hiccups against Arkansas or (probably) South Carolina, LSU earned its place in the title game.

I thought LSU had too tough of a schedule and not nearly enough offense to get through unscathed and they proved me wrong, to the benefit of my dad who is an LSU alum. I'm happy for him even though they flat out embarrassed my Gators.

Something I am happy about is that I extolled the virtues of Oklahoma State and Stanford all year and they sit pretty at that number 2 and number 4 BCS spot (how Alabama is ahead of Stanford shocks me). They both have do or die tests coming up against Oklahoma and Oregon respectively and if they both win, well at least I was right they were good teams, but with them and Boise State probably undefeated, I think it would be nice if we had a playoff. No one has any idea really if Oklahoma State is better than Stanford or vice versa. Oklahoma State can put the points up as well as anyone, but their defense is quite suspect. Stanford has Andrew Luck, but the real strength of the team is to shove down the defense's throat on the run. The styles are so unique but I think each team has proved they are elite and each team woudl really deserve a shot at taking down the Tigers of Baton Rouge.

This doesn't even include Boise State which went into the state of Georgia and beat the Bulldogs pretty soundly. Over the last decade Boise State has gone into the jungle and come out victorious time and again. They have beaten Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, a supposedly superior TCU team in 2009, and now Georgia. These are all high level programs in their own right and Boise has beaten them all. They manhandled Utah last year who is now in the Pac-12. I think any talking head who dismisses Boise State because their schedule sucks should take a long hard look at them. I would not be surprised if they were the second or third best team in the nation this year.

In other news the ACC still sucks, they just keep beating each other and generally behaving mediocre and just when you thought maybe a team would emerge like Clemson they lose. Virginia Tech and Clemson are vying for the title but I wouldnt be surprised if the ACC champ has 2 loses. They still have a long way to go, even though I picked Florida State to rep them in the BCS title game.

The Big 10 is an even bigger mess. Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Michigan all have 2 losses. The leader is Penn State with one loss, which will likely change this weekend with everything going on there. It's impossible to believe that Penn State has the proper level of participation from coaches and players to be ready for Nebraska. Nebraska may still come out of here after all.

If I were to pick my BCS game right now it would be LSU and Stanford. I believe LSU can't be beat right now, even though they still have games against #8 Arkansas and #15 South Carolina. I believed all year that Stanford would beat Oregon and I still no reason to think otherwise. I think Oklahoma State's defense is too much of a liability and beating Oklahoma might be a tough task. Especially if Oklahoma thinks by beating the #2 team in the country that they can get back into BCS talks.

Moving on the pro front, the Suck for Luck sweepstakes are heating up:

1. Indianapolis Colts -It's clear there are too many problems to fix to make Luck the answer. The defense sucks, the offensive line sucks, the run game sucks, and the QB sucks. If Indy ends up with the first pick you still have to take Luck (unless you believe these recent rabble-rousers thinking Barkley is the same). Manning is 35, has had 3 neck surgeries and may actually be at the end of his career sooner than some expected. You need an heir apparent and you need to give him a year or two to learn from the best. But if you get a king's ransom for that pick and you believe in Barkley I think you can make a trade.

2. Miami Dolphins - The need him. It's all they all missing. Matt Moore actually pretends to be an NFL QB and the Dolphins win running away. Beating Kansas city was a bad move.

3. St. Louis Rams - I think they end up with leik 4 or 5 wins taking them out of the running. Plus with 50 mil in Bradford and still so many other problems I think you pass on Luck and get mother fuckin Justin Blackmon. Bradford needs a stud to throw to and he is just way too fucking good.

4. Minnesota Vikings - Can't use him. I always thought Ponder was a good pick (better than Locker taken two picks ahead of him) and he has been serviceable. If Minnesota can keep the talent aroudn him I think Ponder has a chance to blossom. Plus Minnesota has some defense defects they need to cure in that front 7 with their top pick.

5. Carolina Panters - Obviously not. Even thought I think Cam Newton sucks ass they have bigger needs. The lowest point total in any loss this year is 24. The others: 28, 30, 30, 31, 34. So where do they need help? Exactly on defense. Andrew Luck offers them no better chance to win than Newton at this point.

Hon. Mention: Kansas City - WTF? Way to go on and win 4 in a row and pretend like you are the reigning AFC West champs. No Luck for you, even though he would instantly make your team a new perennial Colts. Yeah, I said it.

Washington Redskins - They won too many early on, but now they look like total shit. 3 may be too many, but it wouldn't surprise if they didn't win anymore even though they play Miami, Seattle, and Minnesota. But, seeing how two of those teams are on the watch list and the third is the next Hon. Mention, they can help themselves out by tanking completely. Beck/Grossman is not the answer. In fact, after watching Beck the last couple of weeks I can't believe Shanahan thinks he gives him the best chance to win. He's terrible.

Seattle Seahawks - There is talent here, but the QB is just terrible. I think Seattle is sucking for Barkley more than Luck, especially with the Carroll connection, but they only sit on 2 wins and I could see them losing out.

TEBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW!

My Super Bowl prediction looks much better now than it did, despite Pittsburgh late defensive collapse against Baltimore. Who is really the best team in the AFC? New England and the Jets and especially the Bills have looked vulnerable this year. Baltimore looked awful last month and probably should've lost Sunday night to Pittsburgh. Meanwhile Pittsburgh has turned the corner and has woken up now that we are halfway through. Green Bay is easily the best team in the league and only injuries can bring them down (and even then they survived last year). It was a good young team that I believed was a new dynasty based on age/talent of the team and it's holding true.

The Eagles are no dream team. Way too many holes on the defensive 7 and the offensive line. They just don't have the same explosiveness on offense as the Packers or Lions or the same defensive prowess as say San Francisco or the Bears to be able to win consistently. The Eagles are in real danger, and this time it has nothing to do with Vick being unable to win the big one.

Speaking of SF, what are they really? 7-1? Are they really the 2nd best team in the NFC? Probably not. Honestly, to the chagrin of my 49er fan readers, I think they may be the 6th best team when it comes down to playoff time. In a playoff game, even at whatever they call Candlestick now, I still believe the Packers, Falcons, Saints, Bears, and even the Giants/Cowboys NFC East winner would beat them. The defense is amazing, but you just can't fully trust that offense, and in a playoff game where intensity is increased I think Alex Smith crumbles to dust and San Francisco is lucky to score 10. But hey, it's better than it's been in years for the Bay Area.

The Patriots coronation was premature (as usual). Philip Rivers has been really bad and San Diego is in trouble of losing the division for a second consecutive year. Palmer may really have been the answer in Oakland as you can only assume he'll get mroe comfortable and he has another 10 days to learn before his next game after winning a huge Thursday road game in San Diego.

TEBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW!!!

Finally, it was too early to count out Atlanta, and thinking New Orleans just may not have had enough skill to navigate a tough schedule was wrong as well. The NFC is shaping up as the best conference which is rare lately given the recent dominance of teams like New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and the Jets. If I were a betting man I would put money on the spread of the NFC representative in the Super Bowl right now.

As always, feel free to comment, and I'm glad to be back!

Fall Classic, Take Two

Well at least the phrase "there's always next year" actually meant something this time. A year after playing some awful baseball and losing to a team that sports 8 players in its lineup that resembled my offensive talent in old man softball last week (seriously, how do you hit into two double plays in one game in old man softball?), the Texas Rangers return to the World Series looking for that elusive ring.

6 words: I could get used to this.

After spending the first 25 years of my fandom rooting for a perennial loser owned by one of the stupidest men ever to run a country, having a juggernaut like the current Texas Rangers is pretty damn cool. The Rangers have a relatively young team, a loaded farm program, a good GM, a CEO/Owner dedicated to winning, and now a tremendously huge new revenue stream from a newly minted regional TV contract deal that can be used to go out and buy Prince Fielder.

All of this started with three people: Ron Washington, Mike Maddux, and Nolan Ryan. How did Nolan and Mike contribute? Lets look at something. In 2008, the year before Ryan and Maddux took over their respective roles as President and pitching coach, the team ERA was 5.37. IN '09 it was 4.38. In '10 it was 3.93. In '11 it was 3.79. They've done it with a converted closer (CJ Wilson), a pitcher who had to go to Japan for two years to keep his babies in diapers (Colby Lewis), a pitcher so young and with so much raw left handed power he had no idea how to harness it (Derek Holland), a rookie full season starter (Matt Harrison), and probably their most talented starting pitcher as the closer (Neftali Feliz).

So what happened? Two changes in philosophies that came with Ryan and Maddux. Maddux has been on record as saying the perfect inning is 3 pitches, not 9. Three strikeouts isn't that good. His coaching has resulted in pitchers looking to induce bad contact as opposed to nibbling the strike zone to induce strikeouts. Any Red Sox fan who watched Daisuke Matsuzaka pitch with otherworldly talent but with inability to trust that he could induce bad contact is sadly shaking his head right now. It's no small wonder that the Rangers are among the top teams in turning double plays (tip of the cap to Andrus/Kinsler as well). Instead of looking for the strikeout with a runner on, Texas pitchers look to induce bad contact for the double play to simply erase that runner who did get on and as a result get out of the inning faster.

Ryan brought a different attitude as well. A pitcher known for his longevity not only in career (an amazing 26 regular seasons), but also in individual outings, Ryan (with Maddux on board) banished pitch counts as a determining factor for pulling a pitcher. This benefits the team two-fold. First it allows a team to allow a starter to continue dominating a lineup as he had been the first 100 pitches thus increasing the likelihood they win and keeping the bullpen fresh for more important uses. Second, it offers a mental stability to a pitcher. When a pitcher knows he is on a pitch count he is probably more likely to press in those later innings just to get through a few more batters. Of course in addition to no pitch count ceilings, Ryan instituted a strenuous cardio program for pitchers too to keep up their stamina even though they only pitched once every 5 games. Between these two additions, no starter has been lost to a season ending tommy john surgery or blown rotator cuff or something.

It has been nothing but joy watching these two guys transform the pitching staff into a strength instead of the pile of shit that our offense always had to get over. But what Ron Washington has done to these guys as a whole has really put it over the top, and kudos to Nolan Ryan and GM Jon Daniels for having the foresight to see what Ron (hired before '07 season) was growing in that clubhouse when they had the tough choice of whether to fire him before the '10 season for cocaine use. Washington has kept the club loose, often strutting in the dugout like some cheesy caricature of a 70's pimp, and is usually the most animated man in the dugout when good things happen. My favorite moments are when Washington sits in a stool and starts his legs running like he is running with the guys out on the basepaths. I love that in my manager.

What I also love is his desire to keep it loose while keeping it professional. There is a difference between being loose and being unprofessional *cough* beer and fried chicken *cough*. Back in the day the Rangers used to employ Mark Teixeira prior to trading him to Atlanta for...wait for it...Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, and Matt Harrison. Yes 3 instrumental pieces in our 2011 WS run for a player who can hit like a beast in a 13-2 rout of the Kansas City Royals in May, but has no idea how to play in the postseason (.207 with 3 home runs in 31 games). Tex and Ron were having problems with each other because of differences in plate philosophies where Ron wanted Tex to take pitches in the later innings to get something really good to hit off of a tired starter or mediocre reliever instead of jumping on the first reasonable pitch he saw. Tex was afraid he'd only ever get one reasonable pitch and being selfish jumped on it and more often then not killed rallies or even prevented them. Since one is still here and the other isn't I'll let you guess you won. I like that in my manager. The ability to let guys play but demand a level of professionalism when he needs it. This is after all the guy whose claim to fame in the Moneyball book and movie is turning a catcher (Scott Hatteberg) into a first baseman during his time as infield coach with the A's. He knows how to play the game and he knows how to keep players loose while reining them in at the same time.

Thanks to these three guys, and Jon Daniels who as GM has really done a nice job bringing in talent both at the farm level and the big league level I can now really look forward to long run r near the top of the American League every year. And no, I will never get bored of it.

In our second go around I remain as confident as I was going into the World Series last year. We may not have Cliff Lee and our rotation has been shaky at best and shitty at worst (Im looking at you CJ) but our bullpen and lineup is much deeper this year. What a travesty it was having to play 55 year old Vladimir Guerrero in the outfield just to get his bat in the lineup in NL parks. Sure, the Cardinals have Carpenter and a much better offense than those pricks in San Francisco (nice championship defense, btw) but we already faced two teams with better pitching and comparable lineups.

I don't like facing the wild card team that had to claw their way into the playoffs and then knock off the two best teams in the NL, but I think Texas knows what it is doing this year. Any improvements in our starting pitching in this series and this could be a sweep. I'll stay conservative and go Texas in 5.

Reason why I worry? According to ESPN "Experts" 21 out of 25 picked Texas to win. I never like being the overwhelming favorite. There is something to be said for the "no one believed in us!" rallying cry. But I don't think it's enough. It's our time! Let's go Rangers!!!

What We Learned Last Weekend 9.27.11

What you should all learn is that I'll always stand up and take a bow for good predictions and welcome the rotten vegetable throwing when my prediction sucks. I made a number of predictions in both college and pro football prior to the season and in 3-4 weeks several of them look awful. This week I'd like to focus of several of those predictions, good and bad, as we look back at another week of football.

In the college ranks we have a new Number 1. It doesn't happen often that a #1 team wins by more than a touchdown against a decent team (who by the way beat them last year) and still gets leapfrogged by Number 2. But that's what we have this week as those large cats from the Bayou in Louisiana went into coal country and laid a smack down on the best the Big East has to offer. I wrote LSU off this year as a BCS contender because I felt like their schedule was way too brutal for them to escape unscathed. They played possibly the best the Pac-12 has to offer on a neutral field and definitely the best the Big East has to offer on the road and they still have to go into Tuscaloosa later in the year against what might be the best the SEC has to offer. But somehow Jarrett Lee has decided he figured out how to be a big game QB and with what is probably the best defense in the country they are very serious contenders.

See ya Florida St, no one will miss you. Sure I predicted them to be in the BCS Championship game last year, but as I indicated last week I'm glad they're not. Now they may not even make a BCS bowl after another loss to Clemson, despite what was supposed to be a pretty soft schedule.

It felt nice to get something right though. Oklahoma State went on the road into College Station and gave Texas A&M a parting shot as the Aggies are officially SEC now. This was a huge win for Oklahoma State and in order to justify their hype they need to do what all championship programs do and avoid any letdowns between now and that huge matchup with Oklahoma. In the meantime the Weeden to Blackmon connection is as sweet in college as Montana to Rice was in the pros.

Weeden has Ben Roethlisberger's face is I do say so myself. Women in Stillwater better watch out.

Alabama rolled pretty well against Arkansas. It was interesting to see Bama actually break out offensively against a decent opponent. That 'Bama/LSU game could be spectacular. If more than 15 players make it out of that game alive I'll be surprised.

Wisconsin and Nebraska rolled. They are rolling right into their BCS matchup this weekend. I think the winner here wins the Big 10 and has an outside shot at a chance in the title game. I made Nebraska my pick and I'm sticking by it, but the way Wisconsin is playing versus the way Nebraska is playing and being in Madison this weekend it's looking tough for the Cornhuskers. But at least the Big 10 got what it wanted when they added Nebraska. They got a big time football market with a team that is now very competitive every year. Should be a fun game. Nebraska must stop Russell Wilson. He is quietly sneaking up Heisman charts with how he has stepped into a new program and made Nick Toon a verifiable star at WR.

That one above is probably the biggest game of the week, but for me I am all geeked up to see how the Florida Muschampions handle a big time game for the first time this year. Luckily it is at home. John Brantley, much maligned last year, needs to step up and have a big game. He's much more comfortable in the pro style offense put in place by Charlie Weis, but he hasn't really been used this year as Rainey and Demps have been absolute monsters. When you are a collegiate track champion and average nearly 10 yards a carry through 4 games, life is pretty good.


Yeah that is what Demps has looked like in the first 4 games, as if he's just running track and outrunning everyone else on the field. I am always optimistic about my Gators and if they have a chance to knock off a top team I think this game presents their best chance this year. Go Gators!

There are a lot of other fun games this week. South Carolina will be put to the test again with Auburn coming to visit. South Carolina has started EVERY game slowly. Auburn has enough firepower to make things difficult for South Carolina if they start slowly. They are #10 but this is a trap game for sure.

A&M and Arkansas get to rebound from their wounds against each other. This has always been a natural rivalry and now with A&M coming to the SEC this should be fun. If either team scores less than 35 ill be surprised.

Last but not least the Fighting Dabo Swinneys go to Virginia Tech to take on the Beamers. Not so amazingly, Virginia Tech is undefeated, a little more amazingly, Clemson is. Clemson has had two good recruiting classes in the last 3 years and those guys are finally coming to play (Rivals.com #12 in 2008, and #19 in 2010). Clemson has always been that team with firepower but never the ability to be consistent. That might be changing this year and they will give Beamerball all it can handle on offense. I like Clemson's chances of taking the ACC lead this week.

Swinney does not look like a football coach to me. More like a chemist or my accountant. There's a good chance this is why the superior athletes here keep losing.

As for my predictions, well they are all still alive. South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Oregon, Oklahoma, Alabama, Nebraska, West Virginia, Stanford are all still in good shape to make BCS bowls, even if several of them look shaky *cough* South Carolina *cough*. Lets see if i still get (most) of the order right.

Moving to the pros it might be apparent after 3 weeks that my first coach fired prediction is wrong. I predicted Marvin Lewis as the first coach fired this year, but Tony Sparano or Todd Haley look to be in the driver's seat. I am still amazed that Marvin Lewis has a job. He must perform "extra" services for Cincy owner Mike Brown. Marvin has presided over the worst collection of criminals and malcontents ever. Between Cedric Benson, Chris Henry (R.I.P.) Odell Thurman (almost Defensive rookie of the year who ruined his career with drugs, drunk driving and kicking people), Chad Johnson (no off field stuff but definitely a 3 ring circus on his own), Terrell Ownes (ditto), Carson Palmer (who can blame him for retiring from this mess), and last but not least Jerome Simpson who was harboring 6 pounds of pot plus getting another 2.5 delivered. This is the NFL's version of the Portland Jail Blazers. Getting caught with 8.5 pounds of marijuana in your home is a problem. Almost a bigger problem than Simpson's head shape.

For all the problems caused this alien headed pot dealer and his cronies that came before him wearing the orange and black, the team actually had a decent shot to be 2-1. Meanwhile Miami and Kansas City look like they have no prayer to field a competitive team. I guess Marvin might survive being the first coach cut, but he needs to go. They are moving on from Carson, they need to move on from the problems and move on from a coach that can't control his team.

Speaking of the Dolphins and Chiefs, I'm starting a new segment tracking the Suck for Luck sweepstakes, presented by Imodium. Why Imodium? Well its the cure for diarrhea and well these teams look and play like shit.

1. Kansas City Chiefs - They nearly blew their advantage by trying to beat San Diego at its most vulnerable: in September. LUCKily (intentional pun from capitalization), they have Matt Cassel. A guy who can even put his hat on right. That image alone should be all anyone needs to understand why Kansas City must win the Suck for Luck.

2. Miami Dolphins - That new QBr stat ESPN keeps trying to use indicates that through 3 weeks Chad Henne is the 12th best rated QB ahead of Josh Freeman, Ben Roethlisberger, and wait for it...Philip Rivers. Yes. There is a stat out there that says Henne has been a better QB than Rivers for the first 3 weeks. Advanced stats can sometimes be silly. With Sparano (almost) gone and Brandon Marshall looking both suicidal and catatonic Miami should start tanking. Miami would probably be the 2nd best place for Luck to go. Fans there have been waiting for their new God...I mean Marino for 20 years. He would instantly own that city more than LeBron and Dwayne Wade combined.

3. Indianapolis Colts - Anyone question why I would pick Peyton Manning to be the most valuable player every year? Colts almost blew their shot too by trying as hard as I think they can to beat Pittsburgh. The problem here is, while the Colts need Luck to groom for Manning, the Colts just paid Manning A LOT of money. I'm not sure it's good finances to pay another 25 mil for a backup. Even though in 5 years they wont regret it.

4. Minnesota Vikings - They already drafted Ponder in the first round, who by the way will be starting in about 2.5 weeks. They are now completely wasting the last 2-3 good years of Adrian Peterson (the only bankable back now) by continuing to try to bridge the QB position with ancient washed up guys. I think Ponder might work, but if Minny is sitting with #1 its hard not to grab Luck and figure out which one is better. Having 2 QBs under rookie contract is much better than having McNabb start for you. I think they are better than 0-3 (They have lead each game by double digits at the half) so I doubt they end up in this discussion much longer.

5. St. Louis Rams - They are 0-3 but they have Bradford. So i'll move to a different team that isn't 0-3.

5b. Denver Broncos - Orton AND Quinn are not under contract through this year. Denver is at its very best the 3rd best team in the AFC WEst and if KC wants to keep playing spunky, I could see Denver losing twice to KC. Fans have been clamoring for Tebow all year, but John Fox obviously doesn't like him and I think fans will forget their Tebow lust should they land Andrew Luck.

Look at him. He's like a cross between Mr. Clean, Fabio, and the Brawny lumberjack with just a small amount of his own hotness thrown in there. Forget what I said before, Denver fans will never lose their Tebow lust. It's hypnotic.

Are Buffalo and Detroit for real? I think the answer is partially yes and partially no. They will be tough outs every week going forward. They just each won test games, not by dominating but by gritting out 20+ deficits. That's the definition of a tough out. For Buffalo this was something that wasn't entirely out of the blue. Last year they lost 4 games by 3 points to the following teams: Baltimore, Kansas City, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. They had the fight, now they are turning last year's close losses into close wins. Do I really believe Buffalo is a playoff team? No. I still think the Patriots, Jets, Steelers, and Ravens finish higher than them leaving them out. Could they go 10-6 and miss the playoffs? Absolutely.

For the Lions, I think they may actually be a playoff team. That was a gritty win on the road against a team they haven't beaten in several years. They have a tough schedule though and somehow have to earn a wild card by finishing higher than the non-division winners in the NFC East and South. They have a win against the Bucs, but their other two wins are against 0-3 teams. They get a decent test this week against the Cowboys on the road. Granted the Cowboys have issues in execution and injuries and are coming off a short week, but its another one of those tests for the Lions to learn how to win consistently in the NFL. I think it will be a great game.

NFC West - How awful is that division? It may be worse than last year. Arizona losing the worst team in the division just showed how bad it was. I think it's amazing but San Francisco might be the class of that division. That was a gutsy win on the road against a feisty defense. Also I can't wait to drop ALL of the money I will ever earn against Alex Smith in a playoff game against the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, Saints, Falcons, Bucs, Lions, Bears, or Packers. I don't care if the spread is 17. ALL THE MONEY IN THE MIDDLE!

















Another prediction looking good is going "against the grain" and not picking St. Louis to win the division. I said it at the beginning that the team isn't ready to win yet and they just didn't bother showing up against Baltimore. They have had a tough schedule to start with the Giants, Eagles, and Ravens, but they just look so sloppy and lack playmakers on both sides of the ball.

Just to balance it out, my Falcons prediction is looking terrible. They look terrible. They mortgaged their future to add Julio Jones as the missing piece but just can't seem to score (Philly game aside). If Vick doesn't go out the Falcons definitely are 0-3. With games against New Orleans (twice), Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Houston, plus 2 against the surprisingly spry Panthers and the a game against the Titans who seem to linger in every game like a stale fart, Atlanta really could go 8-8 this year. I stick by my predictions but this one is looking bad.

Besides the Lions-Cowboys game already mentioned, a couple of games I'm really interested in are Pittsburgh-Houston and New England-Oakland. The Pittsburgh game will say a lot about how good that defense really is when they step up against a top 5 offense. Also it will indicate how ready Houston will be to handle contenders. They lost that New Orleans game last week in usual Houston fashion so they still haven't learned. They get a second crack this week. I also want to see how for real the Raiders are. They are easily the best team in the bay area and with another east coast team coming to the bay I want to see if they can sustain success. That game should be fun (for once I don't get stuck watching unwatchable games due to the regional TV contracts).

To all my fantasy and pick em players happy hunting this week and go Cowboys and Gators!

What We Learned Last Weekend 9.23.11

Well the first thing we learned was that I went way out on a limb and snapped the branch while crashing to the ground. Florida State, you are outta here! Thank god anyway, to have to root on the inside for FSU to make the BCS Championship game just so I can say I was right, kind of killed my soul a little. Now I can go back to hating FSU with every ounce of passion I have.

That being said I think "Big Game Bob" has a little bit of trouble on his hands. There are a few powerful teams still left in the Big 12 (Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St.) and I still stand by my thoughts that Oklahoma does not make the title game. The following picture explains everything. That leaves it open to Pac-12 champion Stanford or Big 10 champion Nebraska.


The Oklahoma/FSU game wasn't a complete disaster for FSU. Their defense came in a stepped up big and despite losing EJ Manual for essentially the entire second half, the offense still moved the ball well. Two turnovers in the red zone were the difference. When you play the top ranked team you have to be flawless to beat them and FSU just couldn't avoid the untimely mistake. Reminds me of a certain NFL game I'm going to discuss.

In further developments, LSU may now have the best odds to represent the SEC in the BCS title game. That defense, and especially that seconday minus Patrick Peterson, is easily the best in the country. I watched them take a very potent Miss. St. offense and turn it into the 7th best offense in the Sun Belt conference. They were that dominating. Considering that Arkansas, Auburn, and Alabama are a little more offensively challenged than they have been the past few years, LSU may actually survive with Jarrett Lee at QB. Besides, if you have the eye of the tiger at midfield its pretty hard to lose. Definitely the coolest midfield logo in college and pro football.


The rest of this weekend was fairly boring from a title chase standpoint. I thought Toledo would give Boise State a run for its money, but it did not as they committed costly turnovers as well. Alabama, OK St, Texas A&M, Stanford, Wisconsin all took care of business against worthless foes. But, I am deeply concerned about South Carolina. I was high on this team to start the season, but they seem intent on being the cardiac kids. Of course, Auburn was king of the cardiac kids last year and the year turned out fine. I worry that a lack of focus and a rough start could end their title hopes in the flash of 2 quarters of football.

Nebraska is also concerning me. They are giving up way too many points. If they get involved in a shootout with Wisconsin I fear they'll lose that game. The offense continues to roll under Taylor Martinez and the young kid may have found himself some consistency now.

And don't look now but the Gators are poised to go 4-0 before their brutal midseason stretch. Muschamp has them playing well, maybe thye can knock of LSU or 'Bama....or both.

This weekend offers up a ridiculously good slate of games. LSU travels AGAIN, this time to Morgantown to take on West Virginia. Geno Smith and the Mountaineers have a decent team, and homefield advantage is much more meaningful in college than pros, but that LSU defense looks absolutely savage. I think LSU escapes this game and gets another huge feather in its cap for the computer rankings because this may be WVU's only loss this year.

Staying in the SEC, 'Bama gets to welcome Arkansas into the Crimson jungle. I'm starting to have a sneaking suspicion that 'Bama might be a little overrated. Their defense is doing everything I expected but the offense just isn't clicking like I thought it would. Im sure it's related to the QB shuffling going on there, but it's SEC time and 'Bama might get caught sleeping. Speaking of sleeping, after demolishing its first two opponents, Petrino's Hogs played pretty poorly down the stretch against Troy. Maybe, they were looking ahead to this game, but Arkansas is a real unknown right now and this game will serve to show what the Hogs really have.

Moving to my favorite game this week: Texas A&M and OK State. Texas A&M, on its way out to the SEC, finally gets to take one last crack at its Big 12 opponents. Or maybe, its the other way around. I feel like OK State is going to give Texas A&M a butt-smacking. I hate Tannehill and I have an irrational man-crush on Brandon Weedon and Justin Blackmon. We may be in line for a 41-38 game but if you are only going to watch one game this saturday, this is the one. The winner of this one sits in pole position to get to the BCS title game should they knock off Oklahoma.

In the NFL we actually did learn something this week. Kansas City and Indianapolis are in a fight to the death to win the Suck for Luck sweepstakes. For Andrew Luck's sake I really hope Indy wins. Hes a solid football player and the chance to learn behind Manning is invaluable, as opposed to being thrown to the wolves in Kansas City.

The problem is, I'm 100% confident that if Indy and Kansas City played this Sunday, Indy would probably wipe the floor with them. They are that bad. While Buffalo and Detroit are improved, they arent the Packers, Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Saints, Chargers, Jets, well you get the idea. Getting 40 dropped on you two weeks in a row by those two teams and then failing to break double digits in either game yourself means you are probably the worst team in the league.

Speaking of Buffalo and Detroit, I think Detroit has really shown more to me than Buffalo. Buffalo and Detroit's demolitions of Kansas City can be thrown out. Detroit had an impressive basically wire to wire victory against Tampa Bay, whereas Buffalo was generally outplayed by Oakland. I still stand by my prediction that neither team makes the playoffs, but at least the future is brighter for both teams. It's been a long time.

The St. Louis Rams aren't ready to win yet. I said that at the start of the season and two straight games have proved it. Neither the offense or the defense has enough star power to take that next step. If you are complaining about your lack of a passing game because you don't have Danny Amendola, well I think you see where your priorities lie. Bradford needs a big time target. The defense needs more help for Chris Long. Still a year or so away.

Staying in the West, San Francisco showed me something on Sunday. I wrote the off the win against Seattle as merely a combination of poor special teams and poor NFL team. But they really showed up against the Cowboys and made that game especially frustrating for the Cowboys fans. The NFC West is now a two-team race and congrats Niner fans your team is in the hunt.

Speaking of the Cowboys, I think it's time to hang up the criticisms of Tony Romo. Yes he fumbled the snap in Seattle in 2006. Yes it took him awhile to win a playoff game. But just chew on these stats for a minute and actually reflect on what they mean for Tony Romo the QB. He has a career passer rating higher than that of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and Drew Brees and Joe Montana and etc...Even better, he has the highest QB rating in the 4th quarter of games with point differentials of 7 or less points outside of Peyton Manning. The whole he's not clutch argument is dumb. For crying out loud, he came back with a broken rib and punctured lung and brought a team back from down 10 in the 4th quarter and then essentially ended the game with one throw in OT.

Others says he has too much Brett Favre in him. You know what? If Tony Romo can do half of what Brett Favre did in his career I will be happy. Favre went to two Super Bowls, won 3 NFL MVP awards, is the career leader in just about every passing category (yes, including interceptions), and is generally regarded as one of the best players in his generation. Favre threw bad picks (see NFC Championship game against New Orleans Saints two years ago) but its the price you pay for the type of player he is. And if I have a choice between a player that has too much Brett Favre in him and Jason Campbell, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Luke McCown, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton, or Jay Cutler I'm taking the guy who shares the good and the bad of Brett Favre every day of the week and twice on Sundays. So let's just give this guy a break.


Things we didn't learn. How good the Ravens and Steelers really are. The Ravens got beat by the Titans, who got beat week one by the McCown Jaguars, who got nearly shut out by the Jets. That circuitous logic tells me nothing. Meanwhile, the Steelers have had to deal with every talking head lamenting about how old the defense is, went on to shut out the Seahawks. Sure the Seahawks more closely resemble a UFL team like my hometown Sacramento Mountain Lion, but for all intents and purposes they are an NFL team and shutting out an NFL offense means you still have a very good defense.

Hmmm. Cam Newton. I (and about 50 million other people) are starting to look silly for lambasting the Panthers for taking this guy. 400 yards against the Cardinals was one thing. No one thought he would pass that much, plus the Cardinals defense isn't very good. But 400 yards the very next week against the Super Bowl Champions who knew he could throw for that much and in fact had 10 days to prepare? Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me. Of course we can't expect 400 yards every game, but he's clearly much better than anticipated. But, look at his head, I still think he's on a bunch of HGH. His head makes Bonds' head look tiny.

Meanwhile, the Jets, Packers, Eagles, Falcons, Saints, and Texans all are playing well enough to satisfy me that picking them to go to the playoffs was right.

The last game to review was that god awful Chargers Patriots game. On first glance, I was ready to start talking about the Patriots offense in those hushed tones that surrounded the 2007 undefeated season. This offense looks just like one. A big time passing orgy. On further inspection, the Patriots can't expect to go 16-0 or even 15-1. The defense is just way too terrible. Even if they did somehow go 16-0 again, they wouldn't get far in the playoffs. The Chargers shot themselves in both feet and in their own balls with 4 turnovers in the red zone. Yet, still scored 21 points. The Chargers are as good as advertised, a lot of talent on offense, and yet still find fun and creative ways to lose winnable ball games, especially in September. The Patriots are definitely high powered, but I don't know how good they'll be come playoff time when the worst defense they might face is San Diego's and they definitely will have to go through some combination of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and the J-E-T-S.

Not too many compelling games this week. The Bills get to show their mettle against the Patriots, luckily at home to what will probably be the most raucous crowd in Buffalo since the 90s. The Lions also get to take an important step in the right directions but stepping on the Vikings' throat and sending a message the Lions are no longer the doormat of the NFC North. Texans-Saints has the makings of a college football scoreboard (read: 48-41) and of course we can never forget the traditional Monday night football game between Washington and Dallas. I hate Washington more than any other team and even if you don't you can at least dislike them because their fans dress like this:


With that last image burned into your brain I wish everyone a happy weekend and good hunting ahead for you players of the fantasy and the pick 'em!

What We Learned Last Weekend 9.14.11

Im going to start a weekly review of each week of the football season, both college and pro and make some predictions regarding this upcoming week's games.

Let's start with college. I never get enough of my Notre Dame bashing. This loss officially put Notre Dame out of contention for a BCS bowl game and I couldn't be happier. The idea of Notre Dame rubs me the wrong way. The sheer hubris with which they operate their program is a real turn off. This independent deal with NBC, not joining a conference, even Touchdown Jesus. I revel in their failures and the image below usually brings a smile to my face.

That being said, Brady Hoke who is Michigan's coach, has a giant set of balls. Instead of doing what a million other coaches would do by lining up for a game tying 33 yard field goal. Hoke went for a 16 yard touchdown with 2 seconds left in the game. GIANT BALLS. I was sad Hoke left SDSU as that program was just turning around under Hoke and hadn't had anything really good happen for them since the Marshall Faulk days. But congratulations Michigan I think you just landed the coach you needed to rebuild this program.

Staying with the Big 10, my pair of dark horse BCS contenders out of that conference had polar opposite games. Wisconsin at home blanked Oregon State 35-0, coming as no surprise considering Oregon State lost to D1-AA Sacramento State at home the previous week. Wisconsin continues to roll. Nebraska had a much tougher time at home against the "We will play anyone anywhere" Fresno St. Bulldogs. Don't get me wrong, FSU was picked to finish 2nd in the WAC and they can always play tough, but I expect much better out a top 10 Nebraska team at home. I might regret picking them as the Big 10 winner.

The SEC continues to be a meat grinder. Mississippi State, a team I felt had a chance to put their mark on the BCS races in the SEC, got tripped up on the road against an inferior Auburn team. This is the lesson as always, the SEC is brutal. If you come out of it unscathed you deserve an automatic shot in the title game. The good news for Mississippi State is that they have a chance to return the favor against LSU tomorrow.

South Carolina almost learned the same lesson. They have been sloppy two games in a row

Many of our contenders managed to not stumble against inferior opponents: Alabama showed that Penn State is only a middling team now, LSU, Stanford, Florida State, Oklahoma State all rolled.

Heading into this week there are two big games on the slate: LSU @ Mississippi State and Oklahoma @ Florida State. Both of these games can go a long way towards determining our entries into the national championship game.

For LSU its just another SEC hurdle that can easily trip them up. I feel like LSU might be walking into a buzzsaw in Starkville on prime time with a short week. If you like good football tune in to this one for a Thursday night treat.

For Florida State this represents their biggest hurdle to proving me right and getting into the BCS game. Florida State has gone overrated for years now but a home game against Oklahoma on primetime is what they need to throw years of mediocre football off their backs. I picked them to win this game but it should be fun to see how Oklahoma responds to the flaming spear.


In the NFL we learned very little. That's the point of the NFL. You can't tell how good or bad a team is Week 1. You need about 6 weeks before it starts to become clear. Sure we know Green Bay and New England are very good teams, but we knew that heading in. Let's focus on the unknowns:

Buffalo/Kansas City - What the hell was that? KC never loses by 34 points at Arrowhead. I understand Eric Berry is out for the season and all, but this team did not resemble what we saw last year and it is largely the same. I'll leave this as an anomaly for now and i still believe they are an 8-8 or 9-7 team. For Buffalo they took advantage first of some mistakes and then a Kansas City team that looked indifferent. There has been a lot of infighting in the organization and maybe it's come to rear its ugly head on the field.

Seattle/San Francisco - Everyone wants to know who is the contender in the shitbag NFC West. Both of these teams are bad. Seattle is bad because they lost. San Francisco is bad because Alex Smith is bad. They won't win a ton of games sending Akers out there 4 times and hoping for two special teams touchdowns. These are the two worst teams in the division, I think.

Houston/Indianapolis - I would like a mulligan on my Colts pick. I wrote it before I knew Peyton would effectively miss most of the season. You can see it on their faces, they miss their hero. This team will struggle to win 2 games without Peyton. They are suddenly a frontrunner in the Suck for Luck sweepstakes. Houston has finally turned a corner. They were dominant that whole game. For a team that lost games they shouldn't have over the last 3 years it's nice to see them take care of business.

Arizona/Carolina - Many people had Zona pegged for the title in the West and Carolina winning the Suck for Luck race. Arizona needs to play some defense if they are going to win. Cam Newton throwing for 422 yards is disgusting. They laid no pressure on him, and gave him simple man to man looks for most of the first half. The good news for Carolina, Cam Newton can hit a wide open Steve Smith. The bad news is Cam Newton is a mirage and even though they got 422 yards from him they still lost. Carolina sucks.

Cleveland/Cincinnati - I think this outcome shocked everyone, even Bengals fans. The Browns had looked poised to make a dark horse run. They came out flat against a division rival and still looked very unsteady under Shurmur's new offense. They are flashing signs of trouble. Cincinnati on the other hand came out and did the two things they were expected to do: play hard defense and run the ball 35 times. Amazingly it worked. I doubt Cincy wins many more games.

New York Giants/Washington - Everyone wanted to see how the Giants would respond with all their injuries. Poorly is how they responded. I'm very confident that this team is no better than 8-8. Everyone wanted to see if Washington's gangbusters play in the preseason was just the preseason. They came out and worked it on both sides of the ball. Has Rex Grossman grown up enough to handle the role of starting QB? We'll see, I think the jury is out on Washington, they just happened to get a mediocre, probably overrated Giants team.

Cowboys - Yeah everyone thought they'd be good, but they were a significant question mark for me. 3 essentially rookies on the O-Line, injured DBs everywhere, and they just didn't seem to have grasped Rob Ryan's schemes yet. The O-Line played pretty well, and defense looked real good until Scandrick and Jenkins went out. Playing your 4th and 5th CBs sucks. But here is the problem. Dallas has been to the Super Bowl in 15 years. In those 15 years they have developed retarded ways of losing winnable ball games. Of course, this year looks no different. The blame isn't on Tony Romo. In fact he was a big reason they were winning. It was combination of that ridiculous punt block, ridiculous play call on the goal line where Romo fumbled, super backup CBs playing and yes Tony's really bad interception. But the blame isnt on Tony, it's on a lot of people.

Lions/Bucs - How good is Detroit? They look pretty good. Stafford stayed upright and torched a decent TB pass defense. Having Calvin helps and he looks excited to have Stafford throwing to him too. If they are to be a playoff team they need to continue rolling on offense. Tampa Bay didn't play bad, but they just couldn't or wouldn't run the ball, which was a huge strength last year. In the matchup of everyone else's dark horse versus mine, I seemed to lose. But I think Tampa Bay will play tough all year.

This week gives several teams a chance to get their groove back. Pittsburgh looked worse than anyone this weekend and they get a crack at Seattle. Dallas gets to rebound and try to put the screws to a very vanilla offense and beatable defense. I think these two teams bounce back with a vengeance.

The Colts get a chance to beat someone in Cleveland, but for that to happen they need to get back to running the football. I think that game is very close with Cleveland taking it.

Chicago gets a 2nd straight chance to whoop up on the NFC South (which surprisingly went 0-4 last week). Everyone thought Chicago would fall off from last year, me included and a win here would really solidify them by taking out Atlanta and New Orleans.

Lastly, New England gets a much better test in San Diego than Miami. The Pats gave up nearly 500 yards of offense. That offense can be spectacular but to be championship worthy that defense needs to figure it out. This should be a good litmus test game for both teams. I think the Pats get edge in their home opener.

We live for the weekend this time of year lets enjoy it!

Don't Ride the Dark Horses

Welcome back to the blog! With only two days until the start of the 2011 NFL season I feel like it is time to offer my 2011 projections for every team for the NFL season. Before I get started there I wanted to touch on a few college football tidbits form the first weekend of real football.

1. Oregon is done. I did predict this loss to LSU and with another predicted loss somewhere in the Pac-12 I think they are done. As a side note this also probably killed LeMichael James' heisman candidacy, he had a very pedestrian game and with so many other viable candidates I doubt the voters consider him at years end based on this performance.

2. Boise St is far from done. I didn't call this one. I stuck my pride in the SEC on the line with a marginal team and got burned. Boise St. wasn't flashy by any means but they were deadly efficient on both sides of the ball. Ill be very interested to see how the computers rate their MWC schedule this year versus their WAC schedule a year ago, it may make all the difference between the BCS bowl and just another at-large bid.

3. Florida looked great. Granted it's FAU, but man after last year's opener I think this 41-3 game was a welcome sight for Gators fans. Need to keep building in preparation of that October gauntlet.

4. "Notre Dame is going to a BCS bowl this year." - Brian Kelly. I laughed at this in the preseason and I laugh even more now. Granted they moved the ball and their offense put their defense in bad spots but you are not going to a BCS bowl game with Rees or Crist as your QB. Sorry.

5. TCU, the other non-AQ spoiler of year's past didn't miss a beat on offense, but where on earth did that brick wall defense go? TCU has no BCS shot this year, but they can be spoilers by dropping Boise St.

6. All BCS Champ contenders not previously mentioned: OK, Bama, Florida St, Nebraska, OK St, Texas A&M, Wisconsin all looked sharp in their opening games, with the exception of South Carolina. Not starting Garcia turned out to be a bad move for a half for Spurrier but they rebounded. Better not start so slow against Georgia this week.

Alright on to the 2011 NFL Preview. Again this will have the same form as the baseball predictions, I will predict each teams records and have a little blurb as to why i think the way I do. A lot of pundits have a bunch of so-called dark horses that could bust on the scene a la the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs. I identify them but I don't feel any of them are ready. Ordinarily 4-5 new playoff teams emerge every year. I follow this trend by kicking out the Bears, Seahawks, Colts, and Chiefs and repalce them with teams to be seen here in the preview.



NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Dallas Cowboys 11-5
New York Giants 9-7
Washington Redskins 5-11

Philadelphia Eagles - They made themselves into the Miami Heat of the NFL, but not because they assembled some dream team, that's impossible in the NFL. But the way they described themselves after the rush of signings put the targets square on their back. There are several things I don't like: the O-line, the linebackers, the safeties and the prolonged health of Michael Vick over 16 games. Those concerns aren't enough to prevent me from pickign them to win the division.

Dallas Cowboys - Yeah I know it's sick I didn't pick my own team but that defense still scares me. An easier out of division schedule (6 games against NFC west plus Miami and Buffalo) and the continued evolution under Rob Ryan on defense leads me to believe they can win 11 this eyar and go to the playoffs.

New York Giants - So many defections on offense and injuries to those who stayed. The Giants have potent offensive weapons but a remade line and mediocre defense lead them to a tough season in the NFC East. I just don't see them with a winning reocrd with Eli slinging it 40 times a game.

Washington Redskins - Shanahan ran out Haynesworth (not his guy) and McNabb (his guy) and placed the teams weak offense in the hands of "Aww fuck it I'm going deep" Rex Grossman. The defense has real talent but they will be on the field too often with what I project as a well below average offense.


NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers 12-4
Chicago Bears 9-7
Detroit Lions 8-8
Minnesota Vikings 8-8

Green Bay Packers - This team is still stacked with good young talent from its Super Bowl and while the black and blue division is tough, I think they are going to have more problems with their out of conference play in the NFC South. They have enough talent to beat anyone, but a target on their back plus a tough schedule leads me to believe they lose 4.

Chicago Bears - Yeah, I'm a hater. I hate Cutler, I hate Roy Williams, I hate that O-line. The defense is as good as any in the league but its starting to age and with age comes complaining. This time in the form of Lance Briggs asking out of Chicago. Between what i view as a subpar O and a regressing and troublemaking defense I don't see a return to the playoffs.

Detroit Lions - I'm drinking the Kool-Aid on the fantasy Lions, but not so much on the real Lions. They have a bunch of potent weapons on both sides of the ball, but we've heard this same garbage about Houston for 4 years now (more on them later) and I feel this is similar. They have no experience winning and they just have too tough of a slate. This team has real potential in 2-4 years if they keep building the right way, but actually winning in the NFL usually takes time.

Minnesota Vikings - I'm in line with the rest of the public who thinks McNabb is done. There is still talent, but if Favre couldn't get it done well there, I doubt McNabb is successful either. The defense has lost a lot of its luster from 2-3 years ago with defections and aging and Jared Allen can't pull it on his own. I would not be surprised to see Minnesota 0-4 to start the season .



NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons 12-4
New Orleans Saints 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-6
Carolina Panthers - 1-15

Atlanta Falcons - Pretty trendy Super Bowl pick and with an upgraded defense and the addition of what they hope is the last piece of the puzzle in Julio Jones they may make it. They aren't my choice but they aren't a bad choice. Again, I think they have enough talent to beat anyone but their schedule is tough and I think it translates into 4 losses. Doesn't matter, I think they'll get a buy.

New Orleans Saints - This may be low, they still have a killer offense, but I wonder what the departure of Reggie Bush does for their special teams and their scheming. He wasn't particularly productive in the box score but he sure opened things up everywhere and he was electric when he touched the ball. Saints had a nice draft too picking up guys who will play right away on a contender.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I absolutely do not think their run was a fluke last year. They have a lot of young talent and unlike Detroit, they know how to win in a tough division now. This is the only dark horse I like. I actually have a witness to my prediction that they would win 10 last year. If Tampa Bay wins their division this year I wouldn't bat an eye. I am a believer in Josh Freeman!

Carolina Panthers - This was their record last year. They didn't do anything to their team to show me it is improved in anyway. Cam Newton is not your savior. Of course playing Clausen would probably yield the same results. Good luck Carolina, maybe you'll prove me wrong and win 2.


NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals - 8-8
Seattle Seahwaks - 8-8
St. Louis Rams - 8-8
San Francisco 49ers - 5-11

Arizona Cardinals - So as you can see I have a problem picking the winner in this division. All these teams have a brutal out of conference schedule. But, if you were to ask me which team has the most talent and most likely to have the best QB at season's end I'd say Arizona. They paid an arm and leg for Kolb and really if he is just average he'll succeed in this division. I don't think we get the 7-9 debacle of last year but 8-8 just feels right.

Seattle Seahawks - BEAST MODE! That run pictured above was one of the best playoff runs in NFL history. But..Tavaris Jackson? At least he has talent including his old buddy Sidney Rice from Minnesota. There won't be any chemistry concerns there and Pete Carroll seems to light up his team with his enthusiam but I just don't think they make it this year.

St. Louis Rams - Much more blue collar than we are used to seeing the Rams. They are trying to win with solid balanced offense and a tougher defense. The Rams are a popular dark horse, but they aren't my dark horse. Sure anybody can win in this craptacular division, but I feel liek they need a few more weapons and some more time to grow as a team. That shit they took in the "play-in" game against Seattle on Week 17 last year is all the proof you need that they weren't ready. I don't think anything has changed...yet.

San Francisco 49ers - If they can somehow convince Carson Palmer to report and then convince Mike Brown to trade him to the 49ers we are talking about something else. But Alex Smith is worthless. I've never seen a QB with less confidence in his ability to make a throw. At least JaMarcus Russell thought he could make the throw, even if it was 15 yards over someone's head. Smith holds the ball too long and just kills his team's offense. Frank Gore is aging as well and just can't be counted on to be the back he was 4 years ago.


AFC EAST

New England Patriots 13-3
New York Jets 12-4
Miami Dolphins 6-10
Buffalo Bills 4-12

New England Patriots - Why? Because this is just what they do. Every year you feel like they just don't have enough talent to hold on to the division lead and every year they come out and win 13 or 14 games. Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, blah blah blah, as long as they are around things won't change here.

New York Jets - They probably lose both games to Patriots this year in the regular season only to beat them in the playoffs. New York is still very very good and hell, they've gone to the AFC Championship game two times in a row now. Pretty hard to pick against them.

Miami Dolphins - Really dropped the ball by not adding Orton. Orton may nto be a sexy name but he can win and has show he can succeed in the NFL unlike Henne. They added some offensive weapons (Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas) to replace those they let go (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams) but I just don't really see how this team improved at all. They won 7 last year, I say 6 this year.

Buffalo Bills - Their defense sucks and Ryan Fitzpatrick was an anomaly last year. I hate this team. They did draft a bunch of players to help bolster a crappy defense but I just don't see this team really going out and beating anyone. Four wins may be too high. When you are riding Fred Jackson, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson you may struggle to score. When you struggle to score and your defense can't stop anyone, you will struggle to win.


AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers 13-3
Baltimore Ravens 11-5
Cleveland Browns 7-9
Cincinnati Bengals 2-14

Pittsburgh Steelers - I don't see how you don't ride this team as a Super Bowl favorite. They know how to win, they are a much mroe explosive offense than people give them credit for because of their team name. Their defense is as intimidating as any on the field and their only real weakness, at O-Line sure didn't hamper them last year. These guys have to be favorites to go back to the Super Bowl again.

Baltimore Ravens - Poor little stepchildren of the North. Until Flacco makes the move to Big Ben quality this team will struggle. While the Steelers are weak at O-line they can scheme around it. The Ravens can't scheme around their biggest weakness, Flacco. Unless Flacco can avoid this average from the last 5 weeks last year: 157.8 yds/gm, The Ravens will be hamstrung in what they can do on offense.

Cleveland Browns - Another popular dark horse to make the leap, but they won't beat Baltimore or Pittsburgh. They also need to continue to learn Pat Shurmur's schemes and honestly they just need to keep playing meaningful games. They have 11 rookies and 31 players with 3 or less years experience. I think they can be upstarts but envisioning a winning record is pretty far-fetched.

Cincinnati Bengals - Look Andy Dalton was a great college player and I liked him. But playing MWC conference defenses and then staring down the barrel of Pittsburgh and Baltimore is just way too different. CIncinnati has to looks of a team on Carolina's path. They have started their youth movement now, so you can't expect much out of them.

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans 11-5
Indianapolis Colts 9-7
Tennessee Titans 6-10
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13

Houston Texans - Well, after years of being the dark horse, they have to be considered the favorites. They bolstered their defense with experienced NFL talent, they still boast a top 5 offense and they are going to start feasting on a weak division. It took 4 years, but you have finally arrived Houston.

Indianapolis Colts - Even without Manning I would have predicted the Texans to win the division. If Peyton misses any time, especially the crucial Week 1 game against Houston, it just widens the gap between the teams. If Manning misses a few weeks with Houston, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay on tap, the Colts will face an insurmountable hole. For anyone that ever argued that against Manning being MVP, well you are about to find out just how amazing and more importantly, valuable, he was.

Tennessee Titans - Way to pay 30 million guaranteed to what is becoming the fastest marginalized position in the NFL. In 10 years running backs will be a dime a dozen like a kicker or punter. With or without him this team was awful, with him they win 6, without him they win 3 or 4.

Jacksonville Jaguars - The rebuilding has begun. Garrard is out. Luke McCown....is in? Holy moly. Jacksonville had been adding and adding to their defense, but now they continue to erode their offense. MoJo is on rubber legs, Rashad Jenning is on IR and by Week 5 we could be looking at McCown at QB throwing to Mike Thomas with Deji Karim at RB. This could be the worst offense in football this year. It's definitely Jack Del Rio's last year there and he's my pick for first coach fired this year.

AFC WEST

San Diego Chargers 10-6
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
Denver Broncos 6-10
Oakland Raiders 6-10

San Diego Chargers - Pretty tough schedule facing NE, NYJ, Balt, and GB, plus Chicago and Detroit on the road. They have a lot of talent and every year everyone picks them to win. Last year that had the number one offense and defense in terms of yards per game. Their special teams killed them. The same talent returns and there is every indication they should win their division and make the playoffs.

Kansas City - I don't see why there is so much hate. This is a good young, especially on defense. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished inside the top 10 this year on defense (14th last year) and they have talent on offense with Bowe and Jamaal Charles. The real question is Matt Cassel's health and whether the offense can survive Charlie Weis' defection to the University of Florida.

Denver Broncos - Well the Tebow diversion was resolved in favor of Orton. Its probably best for the win now mentality although I may be in the 1% minority who believes Tebow can win in this league. Denver will be significantly better on defense this year (kinda hard not to be better than 32nd) but I don't think this team is significantly better than last year in the standings. a 2 win improvement is reasonable.

Oakland Raiders - They had defections and didn't actually sign anyone other than their draft class, which for their standards was actually a decent class. A lot of people think the Raiders are another one of those dark horses. I don't see it. I think they have trouble keeping pace in their own division (despite going 6-0 there last year) and a 2 win regression is well within the cards.

NFC Playoff Teams - Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Falcons, Saints (It wouldn't take much for me to remove them in favor of TB), Cardinals. NFC Champ game: Packers v. Falcons

AFC Playoff Teams - Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Chargers. AFC Champ Game: Steelers v. Jets.

Superbowl: Packers v. Steelers, Pt. 2. Steelers win this round.

Thats my (educated) opinion, please comment to agree or disagree, give a shout to your favorite team and offer your own predictions.

The Scandals Fade Away

Editors Note: I began this article yesterday and finished it a day after the first games so pardon any outdated references.

It's finally here! The first day of football for the collegiate ranks! We can finally move beyond the scandals and infractions and just start playing football. As I have posted previously, collegiate football is my 2nd favorite sport ahead of professional football. There are many reasons why: the pageantry, the true rivalries (so intense people kill trees over them), the exotic and variable offensive packages, the crowds almost 50% larger than any NFL crowd at many schools, the sheer number of entertaining games to watch on any given Saturday, and the ability to watch sure fire NFL prospects perform spectacular feats (just go on youtube and watch any Reggie Bush USC highlight package to get a feeling for what I am talking about).



I heard something on Colin Cowherd's show I agreed with (a rare circumstance for me) regarding football fans who aren't fans of one or the other of our most popular iterations of football. He said for the college fan that detests the NFL (which is understandable), Colin suggested playing fantasy for one year. I agree, once you play fantasy it helps get you involved in games you would never have watched. I would also add gambling to this since gambling makes everything more fun.

He also could never understand why an NFL wouldn't like college football even if they did not go to a football school or live in the region of a popular one. Unlike almost all of college basketball there are many professional level players in the college ranks. Watching football on Saturday is a small precursor to Sunday and I agree. Going all the way back to my beginnings as a college football fan when I was 12 I always enjoyed seeing the transformation or failure of a stud college football player in the pros.

So for you people who claim to be football fans, get on board with college football. There are already two games with BCS championship implications on the first weekend and many more to come. Now that we've endured a spring and summer of scandal after scandal that has zero impact on the performance on the field, we can finally get back to cheering or hating the teams on the field, not in the NCAA infractions committee.

As my precursor to the season, which starts tonight with a BCS contender Wisconsin taking on MWC gutter trash UNLV, and sneaky scary Mississippi St taking on C-USA unknown Memphis, im going to offer my opinion on the current AP top 25 as well as some predictions for the BCS bowl games.

1. Oklahoma - Not sure that Oklahoma can run the table. They have a good talent base across both sides of the ball and may be the most complete team even if they dont have the best players at their positions. They have a tough schedule, with three matchups against top 10 opponents, another against 21st Missouri, and two tough non ranked opponents in Texas and Tulsa. I see 11-1 in their future.

2. Alabama -Pretty curious to see how they fare now on offense with McElroy and Julio Jones gone. They do return Trent Richardson who is arguably as talented as Mark Ingram who also left. The defense returns a number of sick players starting with Dont'a Hightower. That typical SEC swarming defense will keep them in every game but im worried about them falling behind in a game with this offense. They have the typical difficult slate of games in the SEC but they probably have the best team in the league and could run the table.

3. Oregon - Returning their heisman hopeful LeMichael James and QB Darron Thomas will give them as much as offense as they need in most of their Pac-12 games. They have been dealing with their own scandal this offseason into its recruiting practices and a number of other suspensions for disciplinary reasons. I think they are good, but I dont think they will even be the best team in their own conference. Oregon had its shot last year.

4. LSU - Ran into disciplinary problems this offseason as well and now they will be without their starting QB and a starting WR for the Oregon game. I look at the roster and I'm not sure how LSU gets to #4, but they will again have an excellent, ferocious defense in Baton Rouge. I actually think they beat Oregon, but as is customary they lose a game or two somewhere along the line in the SEC and finish 10-2.

5. Boise State - Gotta give Coach Petersen credit for hanging in there with this program despite the obvious disadvantage of being Boise St. They get two make or break games this year for their BCS resume: Georgia and TCU, which both arent the most exciting programs this year. They return Kellen Moore and are expected to start 10 seniors on defense. This is their last chance to break into elite. Honestly, I think it ends this weekend against an up and coming Georgia team.

6. Florida St - Ugh, its been a while since these assholes were ranked higher than Florida heading into a season. Christian Ponder is gone, but Jimbo Fisher has done a monster job turning around this roster in his two years of recruiting. This is easily the best ACC team and very well could go undefeated....if they beat Oklahoma. The game is in Tallahassee, so they are going to have to ride that crowd to victory against the preseason favorite. Otherwise they are a lock for the Orange Bowl.

7. Stanford - This is my dark horse. Andrew Luck is clearly the best QB in the nation and is overall a very good football player. Even with much of the coaching staff gone to the 49ers the Cardinal return a lot of very good players. They have concerns on the O-Line right now, but they have a soft first month in the schedule to let those players gel. Unlike other teams in the Pac-12, Stanford has a real defense that can stop Oregon and I think Stanford, not Oregon has the best chance to win the Pac-12.

8. Texas A&M - I was kinda shocked to see them here. They played well last year, especially late but I just dont see too much talent on either side of the ball to justify this ranking compared to the next team on the list. They have a good offense, and returning starters on a 55th ranked defense, but the loss of Von Miller and the big fat target they put on their backs by announcing their decision to leave the Big 12 will likely make this a difficult year for them.

9. Oklahoma St. - I think they are going to be better than A&M, and I honestly think they have the next best shot to win the Big 12 this year. While Dana Holgorsen left for West Virginia, the impressions he imparted on the offense and Brandon Weedon will carry over. The offense is every bit as good if not better than Oklahoma's. The difference will come down to the evolution of OSU's defense. The first test of my theory comes in back to back games against Tulsa and A&M, both on the road.

10. Nebraska - I applauded the move to the Big 10 for a lot of reasons, many of which involve the spotlight. While OSU and Michigan still exist in this conference, they are not in a position this year to overshadow Nebraska. Nebraska has the most talent of any team in the Big 10, especially on defense. Nebraska is going to bring a different brand of football to this conference and its a winning brand. Taylor Martinez and the Cornhuskers have a real shot at heading to the BCS game this year based on the countries irrational bias towards the Big 10 and a softer schedule.

11. Wisconsin - A usually decent Big 10 team that I think would far much worse in a few other conferences. They added Russell Wilson, whom I a big fan of and I think he will be the best pure QB in the league, Taylor Martinez and Denard Robinson, and Dan Persa are all nice collegiate QBs but they are better runners than passers. Wisconsin lost some players, but not a lot of experience as only one player makes his first start ever this year. They can be good, but there is always an issue with this team finishing big ball games and I think they stumble against Nebraska or one of those back to back road games against MSU or OSU.

12. South Carolina - This may be an appropriate rank for Spurrier's Cocks but they will definitely be higher than this come SEC championship game time. While they do have the usual tough SEC schedule it doesn't come with Alabama or LSU on it and they reside in a division with a still rebuilding Georgia and a possibly rebuilding Florida. They have two unbelievable playmakers on offense, added the best defensive recruit this year to an all ready tough defense. I wouldnt be surprised to see them 12-0 come championship time.

13. Virginia Tech - Ehhhh. They always have nice athletes and usually make the strongest run at the ACC title in a middling conference, but they ALWAYS seem to get beat out of conference. I think sensing this they have scheduled a craptacular out of conference slate. They lost Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Williams from a decent offense but an easy schedule (not a single preseason ranked team) puts them on track for the ACC title game where I predict they get blasted by FSU.

14. TCU - A personal favorite team of mine because of those uniforms and the absolutely tenacious style of Coach Patterson. I worry greatly about all the losses from that senior-laden team of last year starting with Andy Dalton. The MWC may not be a joke this time around for the Horny Toads, especially with the addition of Boise St. I see a down year for TCU before they head off to dominate the east coast.

15. Arkansas- Of course the obvious question is how they fare without Ryan Mallett who I have always felt was the most NFL ready QB in the draft and a total steal for the Patriots who may need to call on him in a few years. But Tyler Wilson got enough work last year that he shouldn't be shell-shocked by the SEC. The problem for Arkansas is that schedule. As if playing Auburn, Alabama, LSU and South Carolina werent enough they have a road game against their new companion, Texas A&M. I think they are closer to 25 than 15 this year.

16. Notre Dame - The media just LOVES to jump on this bandwagon. Call me when they beat Stanford this year, in other words don't call me at all. To their credit, their defense really came on last year which has been the problem in South Bend for years. I do really like Manti Te'o, so its worth it to tune in just for this stud. Their BCS hopes rest on whether Crist can finally find some consistency but the road is not easy with Michigan State, USC, and Stanford on schedule as well as a date with Michigan who expects to find themselves in the polls.

17. Michigan St. - Sure did me a favor by taking down Ohio State last year and showed a lot grit in going 11-2 last year. They are like a poor man's Virginia Tech for me, they always have some really top notch players like Kirk Cousins and Will Gholston but always lose games they really shouldn't. This year's team is not as good as last year's and I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish 8-5 and out of the polls.

18. Ohio St. - How the mighty have fallen...and I think most non-Ohio State fans couldn't be happier. This was a team that always was overhyped and overrated and never quite as good as everyone thought. The team does have talent but several players good players are suspended for 5 games, Pryor is gone (even though he'll suck balls in the NFL he was a very deadly college player) and the architect Tressel (hahaha replay booth consultant? really?) is gone leaving the program in complete chaos. I think they'll probably do better than most people think probably 10-2, but they won't be Big Ten champs this year.

19. Georgia - Mark Richt is officially on the hot seat and it starts with Boise State this weekend and gets possibly even harder against South Carolian the following week. As a Gator fan i have loved this new terrible Georgia program (and even more so the awfulness that is Tennessee) but I think they are going to be stronger this year even with out AJ Green. It starts with the continued development of Aaron Murray at the QB position and the continued growth of a defense that returns 7 starters. They have to be better than last year's 6-7 but there is a great chance they aren't in the polls at the end of the year and Mark Richt (or all of his assistants) are gone.

20. Mississippi St. - While these guys are SEC foes for my Gators they were always liek Kentucky and Vanderbilt...non-threats. That is until they took away Urban Meyer's best assistant and recruiter Dan Mullen. It was absolutely no shock to me that they won 9 games last year in Mullen's second season. I think they are going to be a dangerous out for every SEC team this year and may play BCS buster more than once.

21. Missouri - I think Missouri may be underranked a little. They are returning a lot of good players from last year's team. They are without Gabbert, but this decade they havent really seemed to miss a beat at QB when a star leaves. Brad Smith, Chase Daniel, Blaine Gabbart all filled in flawlessly for their predecessors and James Franklin may do the same. They also return the same front seven from last year's Big 12 leading scoring defense. I think Missouri will be like Mississippi State, a tough out every week in their conference against everyone they play.

22. Florida - Oh how the mightier have fallen even farther. Im sure with all the cheers that went up with Ohio State's struggles thre were an equal number cheering on Florida's awful (by its standards) season last year. John Brantley was a square peg trying to fit into the round hole of Urban's spread offense. But it wasn't just his fault, that offensive line was terrible last year starting with the failed experiment of Michael Pouncey at center. Florida has a lot of changes in place this year and the learning curve will be steep, but if anything falls in their favor its the pure athletic talent they bring in every year. I'm hoping for the best but they have a brutal stretch of games starting on October 1st where they play home against Alabama, at LSU, at Auburn, at Georgia, and at South Carolina over the next six weeks.

23. Auburn - The 8th SEC team in the top 25 (the debate ended years ago, this is easily the best conference in football), I doubt they survive here. Last year's special run was largely predicated on Cam Newton putting up an all time offensive season. With him and the incredibly talented and incalculably valuable Nick Fairley gone I expect them to take steps backwards and in the SEC where the margin is razor thin week to week I think they get beat by almost every SEC team above them on this list. I doubt they will be in the polls come Dec. 1.

24. West Virginia - Ah the obligatory Big East team finally makes an appearance. I actually think this team will be better this year with Holgorsen (the defect from Ok. St mentioned above) at the help. Coach Stewart just didn't have the edge you need from a top 15-25 program. I think he knew as much when he hired someone to dig up dirt on Holgorsen to help him keep his job. Given how explosive Holgorsen's offenses are (he was the architect behind Texas Tech, Houston, and OK St's light em offenses) it will counteract a young and inexperienced defense. Given the weakness of this conference there is a very real chance they end up in the top 10 or 15 with an 11-1 or 10-2 schedule. They play at LSU so its doubtful they will go undefeated.

25. USC - Its all about Matt Barkley. That's it. I think USC is better than this 25 ranking but none of it really matters since they are still ineligible for a bowl or even the inaugural Pac-12 championship game. We'll revisit them next year.

BCS Predictions:

Sugar Bowl (SEC Champ v. BCS At-Large): Because I think this year's SEC Champ will go to the BCS championship they get two at-larges with one of them assuredly being an SEC team. I don't know that LSU survives their brutal schedule and this spot goes to South Carolina, loser of the SEC title game and liekly owner of a 10-2 record. The tricky part is predicting the other at-large. Given regional considerations i would think the best shot is Virginia Tech, loser of the ACC title game, but because I think the ACC title game winner goes to the BCS championship, Ill go with an 11-2 Wisconsin team that loses the Big 10 championship. So thats what ill go with: South Carolina v. Wisconsin. (SC winning)

Orange Bowl (ACC Champ v. BCS At-Large): I'm going way out on a limb here and I'm going to say my projected ACC Champ goes to the BCS title game. Which means they get two at-larges and likely an ACC replacement being a 12-1 Virginia Tech team that loses in the ACC title game. I think the other spot goes to Oregon who goes 10-2, but doesn't even get to play in the Pac-12 title game because of their loss to Stanford. So my that's my pick Virginia Tech v. Oregon (Oregon winning).

Fiesta Bowl (Big 12 Champ v. Big East Champ - this year) - Because neither the Pac-12 or Big 10 champs will play in the BCS title game this year, this bowl gets the remaining AQ's, Big 12 and Big East. Because I think Oklahoma loses to Florida State (at least), I dont have them playing in the title game. There is no Big 12 championship game anymore so I think Oklahoma finishes at worst with one loss in the conference and wins it. West Virginia is the defacto Big East champ. Oklahoma v. West Virginia is the pick (OK winning).

Rose Bowl (Big 10 Champ v. Pac-12 Champ) - I have Nebraska winning the Big 10 but with a loss somewhere so no title shot. Because their division is so weak I see them having no problem making the title game and winning. I have the same thing for Stanford but because I think they beat Oregon they can absorb a loss and still make the title game against what ever weak ass team in the other Pac-12 division takes USC's place. The pick's in: Nebraska v. Stanford (a personal favorite of mine among the projected bowls with Stanford winning).

BCS Title Game (BCS #1 v. BCS#2) - I think Alabama is a strong contender in the SEC, especially with a weaker East division again and a weakened LSU and Auburn due to infractions and defections. Alabama runs the table and gets in easily. The other pick is a lot more controversial both because they are not a common pick and also because I hate their fucking guts: Florida State. The ACC isn't a strong conference for sure but really outside of the SEC every conference has significant flaws. They play two preseason ranked teams Oklahoma and Florida. If they win them both which unfortunately I'm predicting them to do as well as win all other games including beating Va Tech in the ACC Championship game then a 13-0 Florida State has to get in. So it's Alabama v. Florida St. (with Alabama winning the SEC's 6th straight title in a runaway score of like 55-7 while Florida State's program gets the death penalty immediately afterwards).

It's going to be a fun and exciting season and I can not wait to see how this all shakes out with hopefully Florida shocking the nation and going 13-0 and winning their 3rd title in 6 years.