Unwritten Law and Week 16 Supercontest

We hear about the unwritten law all the time. In sports it's especially prevalent. There is this romantic notion that all sports are governed not only by the written rule, but by some preconceived notion of gentlemanly conduct to goes beyond the scope of the rule book. A specific example I often laugh at is in baseball or its derivative in old man softball: taking the extra base.  In baseball if you are leading 11-2 in the 8th inning it's frowned upon for you, as a member of the team winning, to steal bases, especially 3rd base. In my adult baseball league this came up as my team was crushing the other team and our fastest guy stole 3rd. He's just trying to play the game hard and the other team takes offense.  In old man softball it becomes a take a single base scenario even though your hit would have landed you at 2nd, 3rd, or even home. For some reason not taking the extra-base is sportsmanship or something. Both teams are on the field, and both teams should be expected to play hard. If I was getting thrashed I'd take it as more of an insult if the other team just stopped playing hard. It makes a statement like 'yeah we are so good we don't even need to really play the game hard anymore'.  If a team gets upset because the other team, despite winning handily, plays hard then they can just take the cowardly way out and walk off the field. But while both teams are on the field, both teams should be expected to play hard.

For professional sports that should be even more strictly followed. People pay to watch the pros pay. They don't pay to watch one team quit and the other team ease off the brakes. This is why I find it ridiculous that Pete Carroll even felt it necessary to give some half-assed, sarcastic apology after running a fake punt in his teams 50-17 win over Buffalo. Or getting questions about Matt Flynn throwing into the end zone in a 58-0 drubbing of the Cardinals. These guys are professionals and they should act like, on both sidelines. You don't want them running up the score? Well stop them. Hit their QB hard, pick off passes, make defensive stands. Do something on the field to show you have a sense of pride. Don't cry like a bitch after the game because a team ran up the score on you because you didn't do anything on the field to stop them.

We are at the stage of the NFL season that we run into that problem. Only 16 of the 32 teams are even playing for the postseason at this point. We get a lot of Pro Bowl effort on defense, and experimentation on offense, and as a result we get some teams just running up the score like Seattle has done two weeks in a row. It's simple: be a professional. Work your craft as diligently as you can. Don't cry when your opponent does that very thing. It disgusts me when athletes and coaches cry about that. With that said let's move on to the picks:

Week 14 Recap

(Ed. Note: Obviously I missed week 15's picks. Unfortunately I was in a wedding as well as being the officiant for the wedding. Prior to that I was the busiest I had ever been at work. Some things just have to take a back seat I guess.)

Ravens @ Redskins (-2.5)

This was an unnecessary back door cover with Kirk Cousins playing the hero. I don't know what happened to spark Baltimore's offense but every now and then the Ravens come up with this game where they look competent on offense. But a cover is a cover no matter how you put it and the way I've been going the last coupel of weeks I need all the ones I can get. 

Texans (+3.5) @ Patriots

Holy shit. Crazy ass Patriots. I maybe should have seen this coming. Houston was giving up yards and points to far inferior offenses.  Hindsight is 20/20 but the final result was also not out of the realm of easy predictions. 

Lions @ Packers (-7)

Yeah the Lions have quit and are back to being the same old Lions. What changed? Nothing really. The Lions were fortunate last year in their wins and regression has taken place. They still have not really cured that defense and that was never more evident than in the Houston come back on Thanksgiving and the Indy come back a few weeks back.  No half way decent team loses either of those games. 

Falcons (-3.5) @ Panthers

This was a dumb pick and I underestimated Cam's resilience. Despite playing for nothing, Carolina wanted this game for revenge and Atlanta didn't need this game and could take the week off after crushing Drew Brees and essentially winning the division. Kudos to Cam, I give him a lot of shit but he's not a quitter. 

Chiefs (+6.5) @ Browns

Romeo only has magic for one game and it looks like his magic has run out. The Chiefs are an absolute mess and rumor is now Crennel and Pioli are gone. The AFC West is ripe for the taking over the next few years so getting a good coach and personnel man in will do wonders for this team. Same for the Browns. Shurmur needs to go and Holmgren is already gone. Both these teams could right the ship really quick. I just wonder which team will do it first.

Bonus

Jets @ Jaguars (+2.5)

How Mark Sanchez continued to win games is beyond me, but it looks liek his tenure is up. I have no idea what was more shocking: Sanchez only passing for 111 yards against Jacksonville, Sanchez actually winning, Montell Owens running for 6.5 ypc, or Jacksonville losing even though their glorified 4th string running back/fullback ran all over the Jets. What an ugly. 

Week 16 Picks

49ers @ Seahawks (Pk)

Seattle is on an incredible roll and this isn't the same the Russell Wilson San Francisco saw half a season ago. Of course, Colin Kaepernick isn't the same QB Seattle saw either. But Seattle enjoys the best homefield advantage in football and I just get the feeling the 49ers blew their wad on that Patriots game on Sunday Night. The 49ers could easily roll in here and win but I like Seattle's chances at home in this big game.  Teh crowd will be rocking and another mini earthquake might be in store if Marshawn busts another one of these:  GET OFF ME!!!!!!!!

Man...how do you not get excited watching that. It puts a smile on my face every time I watch it. This game isn't as important as that home game was, but I have a feeling with SF in town it's going to be every bit as crazy in the stadium. 

Giants (-2.5) @ Ravens

This the game right here. This is the everyone wrote off New York and left them for dead but somehow they come back game. The Ravens are a mess. Offensively, defensively you name it. Baltimore could be 6-8 right now if not for 4th and 29, a Dan Bailey missed fg, and the Patriots uncharacteristically failing to close out their game. Seriously. The Ravens are only 3 plays from 6-8. Besides, New York loves going on the road in one of these nobody believes in us games. 

Redskins (-5.5) @ Eagles

Yes, the Eagles are not the same pushovers they were a few weeks ago when they had totally quit, but in a game of this meaning for Washington and this meaningless for Philly it's hard not to take the fewer than 1 td spread. I think this spread is likely higher with RG3 back, but even if he wasn't Kirk Cousins showed he was more than capable to handle a crap defense like the Eagles'. 

Falcons (-3.5) @ Lions

Yeah I know I just lost a Falcons -3.5 line, but here's the deal: Atlanta needs one more win to clinch homefield, Detroit has totally quit (see: last week's Arizona game and also their coaches statements about the team being off the rails again), and Atlanta just put the absolute smackdown on New York. Atlanta has it in them and there is no reason outside of Megatron for this Lions team to even care. I'll go double or nothing on the Falcons here. 

Saints (+3) @ Cowboys

I have a bad feeling about this game. Dallas hasn't exactly overwhelmed me on their 3 game winning streak beating a crappy Foles-led Eagles team by 5, going down by 9 to Cincy and needing several dropped interceptions, several dropped AJ Green passes, and a bogus personal foul penalty to win, and then letting Pittsburgh storm back after controlling most of that first half. I still believe Drew Brees has the ability to make people pay (see: 41-0 over Bucs) and he is the last person that would ever quit on his team.  Just a bad, bad feeling about this game for my 'Boys. Hope I'm wrong. 


Last week: 2-3, Season: 35-29-1 (39-34-1 with bonus)

Good luck to everyone and Merry Christmas or whatever other holiday you may or may not celebrate this week!

Lukewarm Stove and Supercontest Week 14

Baseball's winter meetings are an ingenious way to put baseball in the spotlight when the season is still 4-5 months away. Very few things interest sports fans off the field but two really stand out: NFL Draft and baseball's winter meetings. The NBA draft is a far distant third from the other two offseason bonanzas due to the fact there is hardly any interesting talent that slips beyond the 15th pick and there are about 152 trades per draft so you have no idea where everyone will eventually end up. But baseball's winter meetings are such a neat idea. Executives from all 30 teams come and meet in one spot and basically spend the 4 days trying to  completely reorganize their roster with the other 29 teams as captive audiences. It would be awesome to be a part of it.

What usually fuels the fun is the pure speculation attached to the wheelings and dealings and the excitement or the lament that your team is or is not involved on a particular free agent or working a blockbuster deal. While in recent years these meetings are usually dominated by the teams flush with cash (read: Yankees) every team gets involved in the rumors one way or another and a lot teams sign at least one sort of notable free agent. For instance this year the Royals, a team usually not wheeling and dealing unless its a proven MLB talent for some more prospects, has actually been at the forefront of a number of rumored deals and pursuits of free agents, even the top pitching prize Zack Greinke. Or a team like Cleveland that has sign a free agent, has been rumored to be a linchpin for some blockbuster deal involving Justin Upton to the Rangers.

Usually most big name free agents sign around this time, with a few exceptions like Prince Fielder last year. But Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson, arguably the top free agent prizes in their respective positions signed with the Angels on the same day leading to all sorts of "Who can beat the Angels now?" headlines for months. In 2010 it was the Red Sox swinging a deal for Adrian Gonzalez and then splurging on Carl Crawfor. The Hot Stove season is awesome. It allows for renewing of hope and some actual off the field excitement as there is usually a frenetic pace to free agent signings and trades. Remember the excitement that we had in free agency prior to last NFL season once the lockout was lifted? That's usually the winter meetings. But baseball has it every year.

Well this year has been terrible. Probably the worst winter meetings for player movement in recent memory. We had all the usual speculation and even a burgeoning head to head race between Texas and the Dodgers for Greinke, but then nothing happened. Hamilton is still a free agent. Greinke is still a free agent. Justin Upton is still a Diamondback. The Royals haven't traded their best prospect Wil Myers yet. The best we've had is BJ Upton going to Atlanta (a great signing) and Dan Haren going to Washington (whatever). It has been disappointing to say the least. But Jayson Stark over at espn.com wrote a interesting piece on the meetings yesterday and basically stated the Rangers have corked the flow.

The Rangers are frontrunners for Hamilton, Greinke, AND a trade for Justin Upton, although its clear they wont get all 3. But one piece has close for the others to fall into place and it's not happening. And those pieces have to fall for the market to set for other free agents and other teams move to address their needs elsewhere. While the slow pace has been disappointing, I'm stoked the Rangers are taking the lead here. Texas has been relevant for exactly 3 years of the last 10 and 6 years in its entire existence. They've made two huge splashes in the offseason prior to this run: Alex Rodriguez for 252 million and Chan Ho Park for 65 million dollars. Neither of those worked out well. Well this year we are the alpha dog. Players wait for us. Teams wait for us. I love that status. We aren't the new Yankees of the winter meetings where we come in a blow out the market by throwing unreasonable offers at players, we are a new breed of offseason dominator where we control the flow UNTIL we get what we ultimately want. While it may temper the excitement, it's great for Texas Rangers baseball. Jon Daniels our GM continues to impress and I hope he remains GM for a long time.

One NFL note before we get to last week's recap and this week's games. I've been fairly harsh on Romeo Crennel and usually a fan writes about sports to commend and/or criticize. But, we ignore the basic humanity of the players, coaches, and executives and basically write about these people as if they are legendary heroes or unrepentant criminals. I sincerely felt bad for Romeo Crennel the human being last Saturday. To watch one of your players who you've invested time and energy to help make successful kill themselves has to be one of the most mentally painful experiences in life. Romeo handled the situation with class and then went out on Sunday, the very next day, and probably coached the game of his life. The sheer level of aggressiveness struck me that Crennel wanted this game more than any other he has coached. Sure, Carolina isn't a tough matchup, but on the field Kansas City has rivaled Oakland and Arizona as clearly the worst teams in the league. Crennel went out there and coached his team to a victory. That's the highest praise you can make for any coach and I commend you Crennel. That was a great performance. There is often opportunity in tragedy and maybe something clicked in Crennel's head, because he was great last week. Good luck the rest of the season Kansas City, you didn't deserve to have this tragedy thrown on your doorstep.

Week 13 Recap

Bengals (-1.5) @ Chargers

I will say this, I am writing this without having looked at the lines, but if San Diego is only a 1.5 pt underdog to the Steelers I'm going to bankrupt Vegas. It's as if Vegas and the betting public feel like it's 2006 and LaDainian Tomlinson is setting NFL records for these Chargers. These are not the same Chargers we knew in the 00's. They are seriously devoid of talent in several areas and are simply not good. They should easily be lumped into the category of teams just above the terrible 3: Arizona, Oakland, and Kansas City. I'd love to see the Eagles and Chargers play. It would be a game of who can piss away the game last. 

Buccaneers (+7) @ Broncos

1 point. Ridiculous. That bad defense caught up to them in the 3rd quarter and they just couldn't recover after a great first half or finish the cover after a great 4th quarter. I still believe in my Bucs and I think this line would've been covered on most occasions. 

Browns (Pk) @ Raiders

Love it. The AFC West is clearly the worst division in football this year. You can't have the 2nd or 3rd best team in the conference and then the two clearly worst and a third that may be almost as bad. Cleveland is game folks. Be cautious with how you bet in games involving them. 

Jaguars (+6) @ Bills

Whoops. I don't really know what to say except shame on me for betting on Jacksonville. 

Cardinals @ Jets (-4.5)

You know what? Fuck you, Mark Sanchez. Seriously. Your ball control acumen is making Rex Grossman look like Tom Brady. Butt fumbles, horrrrrrible passes that are intercepted, 97 yards passing in 3 quarters, what the hell are you doing back there? No NFL QB should EVER be benched in favor of Greg McElroy.  Greg McElroy was drafted to be a 3rd string QB. He came from a smart coaching system and his job is to wear a headset and look at a clipboard and act like a coach. His job is not to actually play football. Yet you got benched in favor of him. Just do the league a favor and retire. At least be honest with the Jets and restructure your contract so you aren't stealing 8 million guaranteed dollars from them. I can not believe the Jets at home could not cover this spread against Ryan Lindley who is somehow even more inept. When a team has 137 total yards you should win by 20, not 1.  So fucking ridiculous. 

And no I'm not really mad at Shonn Greene for kneeling. That would've been a backdoor cover and Shonn Greene absolutely did the right thing. It's not his fault his quarterback is the worst in the league among those who have started every game. 

Bonus

49ers @ Rams (+7)

Probably shouldn't have covered, although I still think it was right call. And to every 49er fan who blew up my facebook with "I want Alex Smith back" shut up.  Kaepernick didn't call a play requiring him to pitch the ball 15 yards laterally while 10 yards from his own end zone (Harbaugh), didn't drop an easy touchdown that would have made the previous play moot anyway (Delanie Walker), didn't make an egregious late hit on a sliding Bradford at the end of regulation giving the Rams 15 yards that immensely helped get the Rams in position for a game typing field goal (Dashon Goldson), or miss a game winning field goal in overtime in a dome (David Akers). 

You know what Kaepernick has done though: Bring the 49ers back from down double digits against the Rams in week 10, something Alex Smith couldn't do if he wished for it from a genie; destroyed the Bears defense in Chicago; beat the Saints handily in new Orleans without requiring 5 turnovers and despite the pitch fumble last week drove the 49ers down in two plays for a go ahead field goal making plays Alex Smith simply can't. So deal with the rookei starter bumps and take comfort in the fact that he makes your offense much more explosive, and teams like the Giants are now less comfortable playing you in the playoffs.

That being said Fisher sure seems to know how to get the Rams coached up for a game against the 49ers. Harbaugh/Fisher is shaping up to be a doosy of a coaching matchup.

Week 14 Picks

Ravens @ Redskins (-2.5)

I've been kind of waiting for a line like this for the Ravens for a little while. This team has pulled so many wins out of its ass that its record is simply immaterial to betting. Their offense is miserable and their defense is at least as bad or worse than the Redskins maligned defense. Losing to Charlie Batch is inexcusable. I don't care that it was a Pittsburgh/Baltimore game and that it will just always been close. If the Ravens were anything like their actual 9-3 records that game never would've been close and they certainly would not have lost it. Meanwhile RG3 is somehow riding a wave of more confidence than he was early in the season. He has eviscerated two division opponents in back to back weeks and has completely re-energized the Washington fan base. The rule is all things being equal the home team gives 3 points. The fact the Redskins give less shows Vegas thinks Baltimore is better. At this stage of the season, they aren't.

Texans (+3.5) @ Patriots

Sure this is a Monday night game in Foxborough, but I still can not fully trust the Pats. Maybe they withheld some game plan against Miami to use on Houston, but Houston has been so solid all season no would be the least bit surprised to see them win. This is the ultimate test for both teams heading into the playoffs and I think Houston actually wins this one. I'm happy I get 3.5 and you know theyll go in a bunch of 6 pt teaserss

Lions @ Packers (-7)

Yeah they played to a 1 pt victory a couple of weeks ago (technically 4 but that last Crosby field goal doesn't count), but there is something I've figured out a little bit about this season. When teams lose very winnable games the previous week, they often no show the next week. How do the Lions even bother to get up for this game after the ridiculous way they pissed away a home game to the Indianapolis Lucks. If Rodgers goes for less than 300 and 3tds Ill be disappointed. Plus its those horrible losses that coaching really stands out. Schwartz is not a good coach.

Falcons (-3.5) @ Panthers

See above about the Lions and apply it to the Panthers. Also apply the fact that Atlanta has had some extra rest, it's a short trip and the Panthers are done. Both Houston and Atlanta get very little credit for what they've done this year. It's not often an 11-1 team gives less than 4 against a 3-9 team. Yes there are obviously pitfalls with this game most notably that Atlanta may pull out just enough to win but Carolina seems  to have lost all fight and it just doesn't strike me that Panthers players are too interested in saving Ron Rivera's job.

Chiefs (+6.5) @ Browns

Yep, part of this is a Romeo Crennel appreciation pick for the way he coached last week but it goes deeper than that. Kansas City has really been game these last couple of weeks combined with Cleveland simply underwhelming. I mean does anyone trust Cleveland to beat any NFL team by 7? One week they need 8 turnovers to win by 6 and the next week they slug it out to a 3 pt win with one of the worst defenses in the league. I know I said beware of the Browns in the recap, but that was meant to apply to them as dogs. I just can not take the Browns seriously in the role of touchdown favorites. Good luck Crennel.

Bonus

Jets @ Jaguars (+2.5)

This is the dumbest game in the world to bet on, so please don't. That being said I found it entirely too funny that there was a game that involved a team I have decided to check out on (Jax) and a team that will be lead AGAIN by Mark Sanchez. How can he have any confidence at this point? The Jags are hurting going down to some 4th string running back who is kind of a fullback and their best WR Cecil Shorts has been ruled out, but I don't care. The second Rex Ryan said gimme some more Sanchez, I had to pick against them in the bonus. What a terrible game, but may offer quite a bit of unintentional comedy. I really try to stay away from O/Us but its currently 38.5 for this game. It could be 28.5 and I'd probably still want the under. Awesome.

Last week: 2-3, Season: 33-26-1 (37-30-1 with bonus)

Good luck this week!