Unwritten Law and Week 16 Supercontest

We hear about the unwritten law all the time. In sports it's especially prevalent. There is this romantic notion that all sports are governed not only by the written rule, but by some preconceived notion of gentlemanly conduct to goes beyond the scope of the rule book. A specific example I often laugh at is in baseball or its derivative in old man softball: taking the extra base.  In baseball if you are leading 11-2 in the 8th inning it's frowned upon for you, as a member of the team winning, to steal bases, especially 3rd base. In my adult baseball league this came up as my team was crushing the other team and our fastest guy stole 3rd. He's just trying to play the game hard and the other team takes offense.  In old man softball it becomes a take a single base scenario even though your hit would have landed you at 2nd, 3rd, or even home. For some reason not taking the extra-base is sportsmanship or something. Both teams are on the field, and both teams should be expected to play hard. If I was getting thrashed I'd take it as more of an insult if the other team just stopped playing hard. It makes a statement like 'yeah we are so good we don't even need to really play the game hard anymore'.  If a team gets upset because the other team, despite winning handily, plays hard then they can just take the cowardly way out and walk off the field. But while both teams are on the field, both teams should be expected to play hard.

For professional sports that should be even more strictly followed. People pay to watch the pros pay. They don't pay to watch one team quit and the other team ease off the brakes. This is why I find it ridiculous that Pete Carroll even felt it necessary to give some half-assed, sarcastic apology after running a fake punt in his teams 50-17 win over Buffalo. Or getting questions about Matt Flynn throwing into the end zone in a 58-0 drubbing of the Cardinals. These guys are professionals and they should act like, on both sidelines. You don't want them running up the score? Well stop them. Hit their QB hard, pick off passes, make defensive stands. Do something on the field to show you have a sense of pride. Don't cry like a bitch after the game because a team ran up the score on you because you didn't do anything on the field to stop them.

We are at the stage of the NFL season that we run into that problem. Only 16 of the 32 teams are even playing for the postseason at this point. We get a lot of Pro Bowl effort on defense, and experimentation on offense, and as a result we get some teams just running up the score like Seattle has done two weeks in a row. It's simple: be a professional. Work your craft as diligently as you can. Don't cry when your opponent does that very thing. It disgusts me when athletes and coaches cry about that. With that said let's move on to the picks:

Week 14 Recap

(Ed. Note: Obviously I missed week 15's picks. Unfortunately I was in a wedding as well as being the officiant for the wedding. Prior to that I was the busiest I had ever been at work. Some things just have to take a back seat I guess.)

Ravens @ Redskins (-2.5)

This was an unnecessary back door cover with Kirk Cousins playing the hero. I don't know what happened to spark Baltimore's offense but every now and then the Ravens come up with this game where they look competent on offense. But a cover is a cover no matter how you put it and the way I've been going the last coupel of weeks I need all the ones I can get. 

Texans (+3.5) @ Patriots

Holy shit. Crazy ass Patriots. I maybe should have seen this coming. Houston was giving up yards and points to far inferior offenses.  Hindsight is 20/20 but the final result was also not out of the realm of easy predictions. 

Lions @ Packers (-7)

Yeah the Lions have quit and are back to being the same old Lions. What changed? Nothing really. The Lions were fortunate last year in their wins and regression has taken place. They still have not really cured that defense and that was never more evident than in the Houston come back on Thanksgiving and the Indy come back a few weeks back.  No half way decent team loses either of those games. 

Falcons (-3.5) @ Panthers

This was a dumb pick and I underestimated Cam's resilience. Despite playing for nothing, Carolina wanted this game for revenge and Atlanta didn't need this game and could take the week off after crushing Drew Brees and essentially winning the division. Kudos to Cam, I give him a lot of shit but he's not a quitter. 

Chiefs (+6.5) @ Browns

Romeo only has magic for one game and it looks like his magic has run out. The Chiefs are an absolute mess and rumor is now Crennel and Pioli are gone. The AFC West is ripe for the taking over the next few years so getting a good coach and personnel man in will do wonders for this team. Same for the Browns. Shurmur needs to go and Holmgren is already gone. Both these teams could right the ship really quick. I just wonder which team will do it first.

Bonus

Jets @ Jaguars (+2.5)

How Mark Sanchez continued to win games is beyond me, but it looks liek his tenure is up. I have no idea what was more shocking: Sanchez only passing for 111 yards against Jacksonville, Sanchez actually winning, Montell Owens running for 6.5 ypc, or Jacksonville losing even though their glorified 4th string running back/fullback ran all over the Jets. What an ugly. 

Week 16 Picks

49ers @ Seahawks (Pk)

Seattle is on an incredible roll and this isn't the same the Russell Wilson San Francisco saw half a season ago. Of course, Colin Kaepernick isn't the same QB Seattle saw either. But Seattle enjoys the best homefield advantage in football and I just get the feeling the 49ers blew their wad on that Patriots game on Sunday Night. The 49ers could easily roll in here and win but I like Seattle's chances at home in this big game.  Teh crowd will be rocking and another mini earthquake might be in store if Marshawn busts another one of these:  GET OFF ME!!!!!!!!

Man...how do you not get excited watching that. It puts a smile on my face every time I watch it. This game isn't as important as that home game was, but I have a feeling with SF in town it's going to be every bit as crazy in the stadium. 

Giants (-2.5) @ Ravens

This the game right here. This is the everyone wrote off New York and left them for dead but somehow they come back game. The Ravens are a mess. Offensively, defensively you name it. Baltimore could be 6-8 right now if not for 4th and 29, a Dan Bailey missed fg, and the Patriots uncharacteristically failing to close out their game. Seriously. The Ravens are only 3 plays from 6-8. Besides, New York loves going on the road in one of these nobody believes in us games. 

Redskins (-5.5) @ Eagles

Yes, the Eagles are not the same pushovers they were a few weeks ago when they had totally quit, but in a game of this meaning for Washington and this meaningless for Philly it's hard not to take the fewer than 1 td spread. I think this spread is likely higher with RG3 back, but even if he wasn't Kirk Cousins showed he was more than capable to handle a crap defense like the Eagles'. 

Falcons (-3.5) @ Lions

Yeah I know I just lost a Falcons -3.5 line, but here's the deal: Atlanta needs one more win to clinch homefield, Detroit has totally quit (see: last week's Arizona game and also their coaches statements about the team being off the rails again), and Atlanta just put the absolute smackdown on New York. Atlanta has it in them and there is no reason outside of Megatron for this Lions team to even care. I'll go double or nothing on the Falcons here. 

Saints (+3) @ Cowboys

I have a bad feeling about this game. Dallas hasn't exactly overwhelmed me on their 3 game winning streak beating a crappy Foles-led Eagles team by 5, going down by 9 to Cincy and needing several dropped interceptions, several dropped AJ Green passes, and a bogus personal foul penalty to win, and then letting Pittsburgh storm back after controlling most of that first half. I still believe Drew Brees has the ability to make people pay (see: 41-0 over Bucs) and he is the last person that would ever quit on his team.  Just a bad, bad feeling about this game for my 'Boys. Hope I'm wrong. 


Last week: 2-3, Season: 35-29-1 (39-34-1 with bonus)

Good luck to everyone and Merry Christmas or whatever other holiday you may or may not celebrate this week!

Lukewarm Stove and Supercontest Week 14

Baseball's winter meetings are an ingenious way to put baseball in the spotlight when the season is still 4-5 months away. Very few things interest sports fans off the field but two really stand out: NFL Draft and baseball's winter meetings. The NBA draft is a far distant third from the other two offseason bonanzas due to the fact there is hardly any interesting talent that slips beyond the 15th pick and there are about 152 trades per draft so you have no idea where everyone will eventually end up. But baseball's winter meetings are such a neat idea. Executives from all 30 teams come and meet in one spot and basically spend the 4 days trying to  completely reorganize their roster with the other 29 teams as captive audiences. It would be awesome to be a part of it.

What usually fuels the fun is the pure speculation attached to the wheelings and dealings and the excitement or the lament that your team is or is not involved on a particular free agent or working a blockbuster deal. While in recent years these meetings are usually dominated by the teams flush with cash (read: Yankees) every team gets involved in the rumors one way or another and a lot teams sign at least one sort of notable free agent. For instance this year the Royals, a team usually not wheeling and dealing unless its a proven MLB talent for some more prospects, has actually been at the forefront of a number of rumored deals and pursuits of free agents, even the top pitching prize Zack Greinke. Or a team like Cleveland that has sign a free agent, has been rumored to be a linchpin for some blockbuster deal involving Justin Upton to the Rangers.

Usually most big name free agents sign around this time, with a few exceptions like Prince Fielder last year. But Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson, arguably the top free agent prizes in their respective positions signed with the Angels on the same day leading to all sorts of "Who can beat the Angels now?" headlines for months. In 2010 it was the Red Sox swinging a deal for Adrian Gonzalez and then splurging on Carl Crawfor. The Hot Stove season is awesome. It allows for renewing of hope and some actual off the field excitement as there is usually a frenetic pace to free agent signings and trades. Remember the excitement that we had in free agency prior to last NFL season once the lockout was lifted? That's usually the winter meetings. But baseball has it every year.

Well this year has been terrible. Probably the worst winter meetings for player movement in recent memory. We had all the usual speculation and even a burgeoning head to head race between Texas and the Dodgers for Greinke, but then nothing happened. Hamilton is still a free agent. Greinke is still a free agent. Justin Upton is still a Diamondback. The Royals haven't traded their best prospect Wil Myers yet. The best we've had is BJ Upton going to Atlanta (a great signing) and Dan Haren going to Washington (whatever). It has been disappointing to say the least. But Jayson Stark over at espn.com wrote a interesting piece on the meetings yesterday and basically stated the Rangers have corked the flow.

The Rangers are frontrunners for Hamilton, Greinke, AND a trade for Justin Upton, although its clear they wont get all 3. But one piece has close for the others to fall into place and it's not happening. And those pieces have to fall for the market to set for other free agents and other teams move to address their needs elsewhere. While the slow pace has been disappointing, I'm stoked the Rangers are taking the lead here. Texas has been relevant for exactly 3 years of the last 10 and 6 years in its entire existence. They've made two huge splashes in the offseason prior to this run: Alex Rodriguez for 252 million and Chan Ho Park for 65 million dollars. Neither of those worked out well. Well this year we are the alpha dog. Players wait for us. Teams wait for us. I love that status. We aren't the new Yankees of the winter meetings where we come in a blow out the market by throwing unreasonable offers at players, we are a new breed of offseason dominator where we control the flow UNTIL we get what we ultimately want. While it may temper the excitement, it's great for Texas Rangers baseball. Jon Daniels our GM continues to impress and I hope he remains GM for a long time.

One NFL note before we get to last week's recap and this week's games. I've been fairly harsh on Romeo Crennel and usually a fan writes about sports to commend and/or criticize. But, we ignore the basic humanity of the players, coaches, and executives and basically write about these people as if they are legendary heroes or unrepentant criminals. I sincerely felt bad for Romeo Crennel the human being last Saturday. To watch one of your players who you've invested time and energy to help make successful kill themselves has to be one of the most mentally painful experiences in life. Romeo handled the situation with class and then went out on Sunday, the very next day, and probably coached the game of his life. The sheer level of aggressiveness struck me that Crennel wanted this game more than any other he has coached. Sure, Carolina isn't a tough matchup, but on the field Kansas City has rivaled Oakland and Arizona as clearly the worst teams in the league. Crennel went out there and coached his team to a victory. That's the highest praise you can make for any coach and I commend you Crennel. That was a great performance. There is often opportunity in tragedy and maybe something clicked in Crennel's head, because he was great last week. Good luck the rest of the season Kansas City, you didn't deserve to have this tragedy thrown on your doorstep.

Week 13 Recap

Bengals (-1.5) @ Chargers

I will say this, I am writing this without having looked at the lines, but if San Diego is only a 1.5 pt underdog to the Steelers I'm going to bankrupt Vegas. It's as if Vegas and the betting public feel like it's 2006 and LaDainian Tomlinson is setting NFL records for these Chargers. These are not the same Chargers we knew in the 00's. They are seriously devoid of talent in several areas and are simply not good. They should easily be lumped into the category of teams just above the terrible 3: Arizona, Oakland, and Kansas City. I'd love to see the Eagles and Chargers play. It would be a game of who can piss away the game last. 

Buccaneers (+7) @ Broncos

1 point. Ridiculous. That bad defense caught up to them in the 3rd quarter and they just couldn't recover after a great first half or finish the cover after a great 4th quarter. I still believe in my Bucs and I think this line would've been covered on most occasions. 

Browns (Pk) @ Raiders

Love it. The AFC West is clearly the worst division in football this year. You can't have the 2nd or 3rd best team in the conference and then the two clearly worst and a third that may be almost as bad. Cleveland is game folks. Be cautious with how you bet in games involving them. 

Jaguars (+6) @ Bills

Whoops. I don't really know what to say except shame on me for betting on Jacksonville. 

Cardinals @ Jets (-4.5)

You know what? Fuck you, Mark Sanchez. Seriously. Your ball control acumen is making Rex Grossman look like Tom Brady. Butt fumbles, horrrrrrible passes that are intercepted, 97 yards passing in 3 quarters, what the hell are you doing back there? No NFL QB should EVER be benched in favor of Greg McElroy.  Greg McElroy was drafted to be a 3rd string QB. He came from a smart coaching system and his job is to wear a headset and look at a clipboard and act like a coach. His job is not to actually play football. Yet you got benched in favor of him. Just do the league a favor and retire. At least be honest with the Jets and restructure your contract so you aren't stealing 8 million guaranteed dollars from them. I can not believe the Jets at home could not cover this spread against Ryan Lindley who is somehow even more inept. When a team has 137 total yards you should win by 20, not 1.  So fucking ridiculous. 

And no I'm not really mad at Shonn Greene for kneeling. That would've been a backdoor cover and Shonn Greene absolutely did the right thing. It's not his fault his quarterback is the worst in the league among those who have started every game. 

Bonus

49ers @ Rams (+7)

Probably shouldn't have covered, although I still think it was right call. And to every 49er fan who blew up my facebook with "I want Alex Smith back" shut up.  Kaepernick didn't call a play requiring him to pitch the ball 15 yards laterally while 10 yards from his own end zone (Harbaugh), didn't drop an easy touchdown that would have made the previous play moot anyway (Delanie Walker), didn't make an egregious late hit on a sliding Bradford at the end of regulation giving the Rams 15 yards that immensely helped get the Rams in position for a game typing field goal (Dashon Goldson), or miss a game winning field goal in overtime in a dome (David Akers). 

You know what Kaepernick has done though: Bring the 49ers back from down double digits against the Rams in week 10, something Alex Smith couldn't do if he wished for it from a genie; destroyed the Bears defense in Chicago; beat the Saints handily in new Orleans without requiring 5 turnovers and despite the pitch fumble last week drove the 49ers down in two plays for a go ahead field goal making plays Alex Smith simply can't. So deal with the rookei starter bumps and take comfort in the fact that he makes your offense much more explosive, and teams like the Giants are now less comfortable playing you in the playoffs.

That being said Fisher sure seems to know how to get the Rams coached up for a game against the 49ers. Harbaugh/Fisher is shaping up to be a doosy of a coaching matchup.

Week 14 Picks

Ravens @ Redskins (-2.5)

I've been kind of waiting for a line like this for the Ravens for a little while. This team has pulled so many wins out of its ass that its record is simply immaterial to betting. Their offense is miserable and their defense is at least as bad or worse than the Redskins maligned defense. Losing to Charlie Batch is inexcusable. I don't care that it was a Pittsburgh/Baltimore game and that it will just always been close. If the Ravens were anything like their actual 9-3 records that game never would've been close and they certainly would not have lost it. Meanwhile RG3 is somehow riding a wave of more confidence than he was early in the season. He has eviscerated two division opponents in back to back weeks and has completely re-energized the Washington fan base. The rule is all things being equal the home team gives 3 points. The fact the Redskins give less shows Vegas thinks Baltimore is better. At this stage of the season, they aren't.

Texans (+3.5) @ Patriots

Sure this is a Monday night game in Foxborough, but I still can not fully trust the Pats. Maybe they withheld some game plan against Miami to use on Houston, but Houston has been so solid all season no would be the least bit surprised to see them win. This is the ultimate test for both teams heading into the playoffs and I think Houston actually wins this one. I'm happy I get 3.5 and you know theyll go in a bunch of 6 pt teaserss

Lions @ Packers (-7)

Yeah they played to a 1 pt victory a couple of weeks ago (technically 4 but that last Crosby field goal doesn't count), but there is something I've figured out a little bit about this season. When teams lose very winnable games the previous week, they often no show the next week. How do the Lions even bother to get up for this game after the ridiculous way they pissed away a home game to the Indianapolis Lucks. If Rodgers goes for less than 300 and 3tds Ill be disappointed. Plus its those horrible losses that coaching really stands out. Schwartz is not a good coach.

Falcons (-3.5) @ Panthers

See above about the Lions and apply it to the Panthers. Also apply the fact that Atlanta has had some extra rest, it's a short trip and the Panthers are done. Both Houston and Atlanta get very little credit for what they've done this year. It's not often an 11-1 team gives less than 4 against a 3-9 team. Yes there are obviously pitfalls with this game most notably that Atlanta may pull out just enough to win but Carolina seems  to have lost all fight and it just doesn't strike me that Panthers players are too interested in saving Ron Rivera's job.

Chiefs (+6.5) @ Browns

Yep, part of this is a Romeo Crennel appreciation pick for the way he coached last week but it goes deeper than that. Kansas City has really been game these last couple of weeks combined with Cleveland simply underwhelming. I mean does anyone trust Cleveland to beat any NFL team by 7? One week they need 8 turnovers to win by 6 and the next week they slug it out to a 3 pt win with one of the worst defenses in the league. I know I said beware of the Browns in the recap, but that was meant to apply to them as dogs. I just can not take the Browns seriously in the role of touchdown favorites. Good luck Crennel.

Bonus

Jets @ Jaguars (+2.5)

This is the dumbest game in the world to bet on, so please don't. That being said I found it entirely too funny that there was a game that involved a team I have decided to check out on (Jax) and a team that will be lead AGAIN by Mark Sanchez. How can he have any confidence at this point? The Jags are hurting going down to some 4th string running back who is kind of a fullback and their best WR Cecil Shorts has been ruled out, but I don't care. The second Rex Ryan said gimme some more Sanchez, I had to pick against them in the bonus. What a terrible game, but may offer quite a bit of unintentional comedy. I really try to stay away from O/Us but its currently 38.5 for this game. It could be 28.5 and I'd probably still want the under. Awesome.

Last week: 2-3, Season: 33-26-1 (37-30-1 with bonus)

Good luck this week!

Gator Grumblings and Supercontest Week 13

Some of us are way too invested in sports. I make my living as a lawyer while daydreaming I could actually find a way to turn my vast sports knowledge and above average (admit it, it's true I'm fairly accurate compared to guys who get paid to do this) analyses into a career that would actually give me joy. I love sports. I love sports the way MTV junkies love The Real World or Jersey Shore. I simply can not get enough. I love playing them, in my life so far I have competitively played in some kind of organized league or tournament or competition in the following sports with varying levels of success: baseball, old man softball, tackle football, flag football, cross-country/distance running, track and field, basketball, soccer, racquetball, and darts. Yeah I added that last one as a joke, but whatever it's on ESPN2 at 2am sometimes and I have actually played in numerous leagues and would likely crush you at that "sport". I also golf, but haven't played in a tournament...yet. I love the competition. I love watching professionals and semi-pros (read: college athletes) do it better than I can. I love debating with anyone that can stand to listen to me for 5 minutes. I love playing fantasy sports.

Cue Nancy Kerrigan: Whhhhhhhyyyyyyyy??????

But over the last few years as I approached and turned 30 I felt like I had been less emotional about my sports and the teams I cheered for. I suffered one of the all time gut punches as a fan in the 2011 World Series. I mean we are talking on level with the Buckner series in 1986. You are never one strike away from winning the World Series twice in separate innings and lose. After that game I was fairly despondent but still optimistic with Game 7 to follow. Even after losing Game 7, I only needed about an hour or so of alone time to come to grips with what i just experienced over the last two days. Put this in stark contrast to when I was 12 and Cowboys lost the NFC Championship game to the hated 49ers. I was so angry and crying on my way home while riding my bike I didn't notice some gravel and crashed my bike. I have the scar on my wrist from that day still. I didn't think at this point I could feel the same way, but after Notre Dame's win on Saturday night at USC and realization that Notre Dame was going to be the #1 team in the country heading into the bowl season I was about as fired up about sports as I have been in forever.

Despite winning the previous two Super Bowls, this game hurt as bad as any I had experienced in my short fandom.

A lot of this stems from the fact that the Gators were going to backdoor their way into the National Championship game with a loss from Notre Dame at USC. And yes, I am in full agreement that this portion of my angst should be a non-factor, since if Florida decided to actually play their normal game against Georgia instead of turning the ball over 6 times and still only losing by 8, we wouldn't have been in that situation on Saturday night needing a mediocre USC team to win. I understand that, and really I'm not THAT mad the Gators aren't playing in the national championship game. They should have beat Georgia and I honestly think they would have beat Alabama this weekend. The blueprint was out on them and two teams that Florida beat this year (A&M and LSU) either beat Bama or gave away a victory by playing 15 yards off the ball against a QB that can only throw accurately on short routes, notwithstanding wide open receivers against a shitty Auburn secondary. But that's simply an alternate reality. What I am mad about is actual reality.

I guess it's alright if YOU think you're #1, Manti. But no one else. 

Notre Dame #1. What a disgusting proposition. It's amazing that a system that requires human input has Notre Dame as a unanimous #1. There is something severely robotic and fraudulent about the polling. 12-0 equals #1. No questions asked. No observations considered, no data inspected. If you are 12-0 and no one else is you must be the best team in the country. This is the biggest crock of shit I have ever seen. There is no rule that states you must vote the only 12-0 team #1. Isn't the purpose of this poll to actually vote for who you think the best team in the country is? But there it sits. All 60 voters of the AP Top 25 poll have Notre Dame number 1. At least 3 people in the Coaches poll have some idea of what they are doing splitting their votes between Georgia and Alabama.

You know what's so stupid about the AP poll? A majority of these same voters (who are writers and broadcasters) will assuredly pick the SEC champ to beat Notre Dame in the title game. How can you not? The SEC has never lost to anyone outside the SEC in the BCS title game (8-1 all time, with the 1 loss being LSU to Alabama last year) If that's the case why is Notre Dame #1? The stupid 12-0 next their name? It's unreal. This is how I feel about it right now: CRAZY PILLS

Why can't these voters use the things in front of them? Notre Dame has two wins all year that could be considered "impressive". A controversial win against Stanford @ home in overtime where Stanford was denied the tying touchdown, and the real feather in the cap: @ Norman against Oklahoma. But let's face it, even mediocre teams can show up with impressive wins every season: Baylor against K State, NC State @ Florida State, Washington against Stanford, etc.. What is more telling about Notre Dame's season are the unimpressive wins: by 3 @ home to BYU, by 3 @ home to Purdue, 3OT @ home to Pitt, in game that Pitt completely gave away in OT, 21-6 against a 2-10 Boston College team. They could only beat a USC team with a redshirt QB making his first state and possessing one of the worst defenses in the Pac-12 by 9. Oregon and UCLA beat them by more and USC lost to an unheralded Arizona team. This is not the resume of the #1 team in the country. If this was college basketball their RPI would be like 18. What about Notre Dame this year leads anyone to believe that are the best? All it is is a robotic response to a win-loss record.

If you put this question to the 60 AP voters: Who would win at the Orange Bowl this year, Notre Dame or _____? I'm positive the majority would come out in favor of the following fill-ins for that blank: Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Oregon, LSU, Kansas State, Texas A&M, maybe Stanford and maybe South Carolina. I think you could draw the line at Nebraska and Oklahoma and the ACC rivals Florida State and Clemson. I would be fine putting Notre Dame somewhere in the 8-14 range. Yet despite this all 60 voted Notre Dame as the #1 team in the country.

What could have been...

A valid argument could be made for Florida to be the #1 team. They went 11-1, their only loss a completely out of character 6 turnover game that they still were in until the end. They beat 4 of the top 13 teams in the country, lost to the #3 team, and beat two teams that took it to the #2 team. No one has an onfield resume even close to that. They punctuated it by crushing the #10 team in the country on the road. You know what, they have an even better resume than Alabama  (loss to #3 neutral field v. loss to #9 @ home), but for some reason Alabama is #2 because the media jocks Nick Saban. Whatever.

The worst thing is that the currently devised playoff doesn't cure this problem. I don't think Notre Dame is one of the best 4 teams in the country but they would have gotten in. Nothing but intellectually honest voters will cure this problem. Not voters that will vote one team #1 because of their record without looking at the onfield performance but then pick against them in the national title game. Hypocrites.

And this is why I have this blog, for when I really feel passionate about something in sports. Sure making supercontest picks every week is fun, but these emotions are what really drive me as a sports fan, even negative ones that I still can't shake several days later. Nothing would satisfy me more than the SEC champ absolutely waxing the floor with Notre Dame.  Guess I'll have to wait about 40 days for that to happen. On to the picks!

Week 12 Recap

Bills @ Colts (-3)

This one was close and yet never really in doubt the whole way. For once I nailed the Chuck Pagano karma train. I do feel a little sleazy basing spread picks on the presence of a man fighting leukemia, but the Colts show up every time something Chuckstrong related happens. This week? Two cheerleaders shaving their heads on the sidelines during the game in solidarity with Chuck. Buffalo didn't stand a chance after that. Also Indy is AFC Seattle, good at home bad on the road. 

Packers (+3) @ Giants

Hahaha. Stupid Giants. I totally forgot that the "nobody believes in us" card was legitimate again for this team. They absolutely dominated this game after a lot pundits really felt Green Bay had made itself the team to beat again. I should have seen this coming, shame on me. At least it's the only blemish on this week's card. 

Seahawks @ Dolphins (+3)

Seattle just looked really flat this game. I love the fact that NO ONE was taking Miami in this game. I think you could get -3 at +105. That's about as good of odds as you can get on a spread before the line moves. Like my Giants pick and their nobody believes in us crap, betting America failed to take into account actual betting rules that apply to the Seahawks: West coast travelling to East Coast for morning game AND Seattle sucks on the road.  I feel good about this one. 

Ravens (-1) @ Chargers

I haven't said this out loud to anyone but I don't think Ray Rice actually got there on 4th and 29. But who cares? This result was simply not surprising for the Chargers.  In control the entire first half they get shut out in the second half by a team not entirely motivated to win. And then the 4th and 29. See ya Norv! If he survives this season I don't know whether to call him Michael Myers from Halloween or Zombie Norv. There is no way he sticks around after last week. 

Falcons (-1) @ Buccaneers

Everything in life must have a balance. I can't get a miracle Packers cover last week and expect the exact same cover the following week with the Falcons. Matt Bryant had a shot at the end of the game to make this a 4 point win, instead he missed, giving me my first push of the season. C'est la vie. 

Before I start this week's picks I just want to post a link to a new blog started as a collaboration between myself and a my friend Teach. You can see it over here at Straight Pickin' Ya. Pretty neat little spread pick 'em blog. Teach will be selecting 3 games each week in NBA, NCAA Basketball, and NCAA Football as well as my 5 game Supercontest slate and we will each give our takes and picks on the season. Check it out!

Week 13 Picks

(Ed. Note: This is the first week I've had a full slate to pick from, minus the Thursday game, and it was one of the hardest weeks to make picks. I'm bracing for my first 0-5.)

Bengals (-1.5) @ Chargers

I feel like Bill Murray from Groundhog day. I keep waking up to the same spread scenarios. The Bengals are in a big push for the playoffs and are playing some of their best football recently against the Giants and cellar dwelling Chiefs and Raiders.  The Chargers aren't much better than either of their AFC West counterparts. So why is this spread 1.5? Are we going to expect the same no show from another AFC North oppinent? Did the Chargers fix their myriad offensive issues? Did Norv learn how to coach? The answer to all of those is NO.

Buccaneers (+7) @ Broncos

This may be an unpopular pick since it does send Tampa on the road in an unfriendly atmosphere against a red-hot Broncos team, but the Bucs haven't lost a game by more than 7 all year and they have more than enough offense to keep up with Denver. I'm not saying Denver isn't for real, I think they have a good shot to make a deep playoff run but their recent 6 game winning includes San Diego x2, Carolina, Kansas City, and an actual fraudulent team in New Orleans. I just think 7 might be too high here. Also it's nice to be betting with my sweethearts again.

Browns (Pk) @ Raiders

Sexy, sexy matchup. Thank god for the Redzone channel or i'd be force to watch this snoozefest. Yeah, this is also how bad the card is this week that this is my #3 game. Simply put the Browns are playing better than the Raiders. Nothing more to really evaluate. Now where is the Chiefs game so I can pick against all 4 AFC West teams?

Jaguars (+6) @ Bills

Yeah this one actually does have some more appeal, both teams have fairly potent offenses with defenses that leave something to be desired. Since Henne has stepped in Jacksonville has looked like a passing juggernaut. Who would've thought that Blaine Gabbert wasn't the answer in Jacksonville? I fully expect Tannehill to be a victim of these similar circumstances next year. What a waste of a first round pick. As for this game, the old mantra don't guive more than 3 with mediocre teams applies here. Could Buffalo win by 7? Sure. But more likely they lose or win by 4 or less.

Cardinals @ Jets (-4.5)

Yuck. This game is horrible and that spread is horrible. But Whisenhunt is trying to get himself fired by sticking with Ryan Lindley over Skelton. Kolb may return, but there hasn't been any positive news on that front this week. The Jets like to do the Jekyll and Hyde routine, look terrible one week then beat a team good the next week. This is a perfect scenario for that to happen, I just wish I didn't have to give 4.5.

Bonus

49ers @ Rams (+7)

Back to back road games for the 49ers and of course we all remember how fired up the Rams were for this game last time they met. The 49ers also needed some help from a couple of interception returns to put away the Saints. I don't like Amendola in a walking boot, but I also just don't like giving 7 with the 49ers. Kinda odd having a bonus in a week where I hate the card, but I haven't had a bonus in a couple of weeks.

Last week: 3-1-1, Season: 31-23-1 (34-27-1 with bonus)

Good luck everyone!

Rapid Fire Supercontest Week 12

Week 11 Recap

Packers (-3) @ Lions

Haha, awesome backdoor cover, teams never kick that last second field goal, but I'll take it. After this Thanksgiving the Lions are certainly a tough out but not a good team, I wonder if they'll quit on Schwartz the rest of the way.  

Buccaneers (-1.5) @ Panthers

An even more ridiculous cover. The Bucs down 8 with no timeouts and less than 2 minutes to go drive the length of the field, score on a ridiculous throw into double coverage, get the two point conversion just to tie and then get the ball first in OT and drive the field again. If I'm a member of the Carolina 

Bears @ 49ers (-4)

KAEPERNICK. Amazingly, despite being shouted down by my "knowledgeable" 49er fan friends the days before this game I now here no one complaining that Kaepernick gets the start this week. How fickle the love for the Alex Smith was (and should have been). 

Colts (+9.5) @ Patriots

Can't beat 21 points on defense and special teams. Luck is still a little shaky on the road. Pats can score at will and actually made some defensive plays. But they still gave up quite a few points. 

Jets @ Rams (-3)

That'll teach me to trust the Rams. Maybe ill try to stay away from mediocre teams giving 3 at home. That used to be a solid bet. 

Week 12 Picks

Bills @ Colts (-3)

Pretty much the reverse of the Patriots game. Luck is back home. You have to be cautious with Indy's defense, but I feel very confident they score all over Buffalo at home. 

Packers (+3) @ Giants

Kind of shocked the Packers are giving three here. The Giants aren't that great at home, and going into the bye they looked terrible. I'm not sure they are really that talented, but I am braced for the Giants to come out and drop 21 right away on the Packers. I just don';t think it happens. It seems the noodle arm switched from Peyton to Eli. 

Seahawks @ Dolphins (+3)

Simple west coast team travelling to east coast for early game and the Seahawks are not good on the road. I'll definitely take the points in that situation. I'd like to see some Matt Moore here though.  

Ravens (-1) @ Chargers

The Chargers should be giving more than 1 point to all teams with winning records. Even ones as banged up as the Ravens. 

Falcons (-1) @ Buccaneers

I hate picking against my sweethearts here but I just think they'll run into an offensive buzzsaw here that they can't come back from. Gotta improve that pass defense. 

Last week: 3-2, Season: 28-22 (31-26 with bonus)

Good luck everyone!

Sports Pu-Pu Platter and Supercontest Week 11

Lots of happenings in the world of sports in this past week, so it feels right for another potpourri blog before I get into my picks.

In baseball, the major postseason awards came out this week. Not a lot of surprises and not a lot of arguments to be made. No apologies to Angels fans since Cabrera deserved that MVP and deserved it by the landslide he won it with. For much of the season the Tigers floundered on offense and in the bullpen and needed a strong September to seal up a division crown that should have been won at the beginning of August Cabrera was really the torch bearer on that offense. Besides it's a triple crown. I mean come on, we can debate for eternity whether the MVP is a traditional statistical award (it is) or whether it's more nebulous than that with sabermetrics or just a subjective opinion that in ballgames one player was more "valuable" to his team than the other. Despite all the amazing plays Trout made this year and the ridiculous ceiling he has as a major leaguer going forward, once Cabrera won the triple crown and the Tigers won their division while the Angels shuffled to a third place finish there should not have been a debate. Congrats Cabrera, I hope you split whatever MVP bonus you have in your contract  with Prince Fielder who has now protected two straight MVP winners. Makes a great case for Prince as the true most valuable player going forward if, you know, it wasn't a true traditional statistical award (of course it is). 

Buster Posey won an uninteresting NL MVP race. He had a great season on a division champ but .336 24 HR and 104 RBI would've landed him somewhere around 6th in the AL race. It's been pretty frustrating watching a much better league lose in the World Series every year, which continues to support my argument that the NL has an inherent advantage in any World Series due to the DH rule switch for home teams. NL teams are built to support hitting pitchers and AL teams slump bad with hitting pitchers. There are a number of reasons but a lot of it has to do with big bats poor gloves playing DH in the AL. Those bats are crucial for the AL's success and usually they involve questionable talent on defense. Recall Delmon Young this year or Vladimir Guerrero in 2010. So when an AL team has to go to an NL home park their team gets worse. A pitcher who never hits has to bat and a DH who never fields has to field. Meanwhile the NL team plays as it always has. Conversely when the NL team travels to an AL home park, the AL team gets to finally play as it was constructed according to its rules, but now the NL gets a boon by adding a bat to its lineup it ordinarily wouldn't have otherwise. So if you are keeping score at home, the NL gains an advantage no matter where the games are played. Two ways to solve this: Unify the DH rule, either abolish it or apply it consistently to both leagues (my choice) OR let the teams play as they have all year. The AL team uses a DH and the NL team bats its pitcher. This one is intriguing but in a certain way logical. The DH really impacts how teams are teams are assembled. Simple example is without the DH the Tigers absolutely do not go after Prince Fielder this year completely altering that roster. Without Prince the Tigers may not have made the playoffs this year, instead they go to the World Series. It just seems inherently stupid to have teams assembled two different ways and then in the championship series alter them contrary to how they were assembled. Baseball needs to fix this. Maybe I'll start a petition on change.org. 

Trout was ROY, duh. Harper was ROY, also duh but again a much weaker slate. I'll bet if you shifted Cespedes and Darvish to the NL they would have beat Harper. 

In a season with impressive award winners, Bob Melvin's manager of the year award may be the most impressive manager of the year award since it started. The team that Melvin took to the playoffs, including winning a division over two other prohibitive favorites was really a masterful job. It can't be easy cobbling together a rotation and lineup of rookies, but he finally found success in that second half. Buck Showalter did a great job maneuvering his own squad but there was major league experience on that roster. The A's had very little. I will say though Coco Crisp probably does deserve an assist on this once. He was basically the manager on the field and you could tell he was the one likely galvanized that clubhouse and showed them that just because they were rookies they didn't have to lose. I hate you guys but hats off for one of the more shocking seasons in recent memory. The Nationals' Davey Johnson won the NL award as the manager of the "most surprising" division winner. Whatever, the Nationals were much better than most people were willing to give them credit for at the beginning of the season. I think with all the injuries to the Reds that Dusty Baker did a better job but he came out with only 5 first place votes to Johnson's 23. Still with such a young roster and the uneviable task of managing Strasburg's innings limit Johnson did earn it. 

With that done 2012 is in the books. The clock is ticking on the Giants' title defense and the first step to unseating them happens in the Hot Stove League this off-season. Where will Josh Hamilton go? How much more will the Dodgers spend? Can the A's repeat the magic? Are the Nationals early season favorites with an unlimited Strasburg? Its going to be a great offseason, can't wait for April. 

In college football we just had a massive shift in the BCS. For the first time in what feels like forever an SEC team is not in the top 2 and in fact at this point no SEC team controls its own destiny. Alabama survived LSU (barely) and then Texas A&M took what it saw in LSU and exposed the Crimson Tide. This is what I simply have not understood all year, why do teams not play press coverage with 8 in the box against Bama? McCarron is so disgustingly overrated as a QB that I think it made teams afraid to actually test him. If you watch a Bama game McCarron is simply not a downfield passer. This drove me nuts on that last possession in the LSU game. LSU played off coverage and McCarron threw 5 yard passes that turned into 13 yards and Bama moved down the field way too easily. Look, you don't even have to get quick pressure on him, just make him throw intermediate and deep. I think Texas A&M finally saw it and made McCarron make throws down the field and the Crimson Tide paid for it. Needless to say all pundits and bloggers (including myself) owe Texas A&M an apology. They fit in right from the start this season and should be very proud of their season.

So where do we go from here now that we likely will not have BCS champion from the SEC for the first time in 213 years? Well the obvious front-runners are Oregon and K-State. Oregon still must beat Stanford, Oregon State, and likely USC again when they beat UCLA this weekend. Stanford isn't built to beat Oregon. Stanford is a prostyle in the trenches team that just really has no hope of stopping Oregon. Oregon State has a more dynamic defense but the rigors of the schedule have worn on them as they've lost two of three and while I think they stack better on both sides of the ball than Stanford, they just probably lack the talent to compete. But never sleep on those rivalry games. If USC could get just one stop they might've won that game. Oregon obviously doesn't want to seem them again and is rooting for UCLA, but Oregon's path is clear. There are a couple pitfalls but it's more likely than not that Oregon runs the table. As for K-State they have one more real "test" at home against Texas and no championship game. Texas has played better of late, but I've really tuned in for K-State games because I like watching Collin Klein at work and they are an impressive team. They score easily but they also aren't a swinging gate on defense. It's really hard to gauge how they would matchup against Oregon, but it sure would be a fun game to watch.

Of course this leaves Notre Dame sitting on the outside hoping Oregon stumbles into one of those traps. I think this is proper too for a couple of reasons. First, on a personal note, join a freaking conference already. If you guys just stepped into the Big 10 years ago you'd have your platform for title game considerations. This holier than thou attitude is stupid and really turns you guys off your program. Maybe you guys are one of the top two teams in the country, but the system in college football revolves around conferences. Get with the program. The second reason is that they really aren't one of the top 2 teams in the country. You've watched Notre Dame play and then compare them to K-St and Oregon and it's no question that everyone would rather have those teams on the field than Notre Dame. I will say that win at Norman was amazing, but then struggling at home to Pitt? Underwhelming win at a 2-7 Boston College? Meh. Oregon and K State haven't underwhelmed at any point. Of course all it takes is one slip up, I can hear the Irish getting out their Duck and Wildcat voodoo dolls. 

We could talk about the next 6 teams in the BCS (all SEC - No Mr. Armchair, the SEC is not down) but really I don't think there is any hope there. Looking at the remaining schedules and the fact that K State and Notre Dame don't have conference championship games, it's hard to see Alabama or Georgia leapfrogging two schools down the stretch. As a college football fan I'm just hoping we keep the Oregon K State matchup intact. There is something...unsettling...about the stupid Irish in the BCS championship game. 

In basketball, I think we've had kind of a slow start to the season. Of course football always dominates the early part of the season, but here it just feels more related to injuries. Dirk, Love, Rose, Rondo, Wade, Nash have all missed games already. Even B list stars like Danny Granger are down and Anthony Davis has already missed a game. Just kind of a slow start to a weird NBA season. Maybe we wre on to somethign starting the season at Christmas time and running the playoffs through the slow months of June and July. 

But we did get our first coaching vacancy and hire and it was done as sloppily as possible. The Lakers fire Mike Brown 5 games in despite a public statement giving him this homestand to correct things. One thing I will say is Mike Brown was set up to fail. It's so hard to gel new parts, especially two alpha parts who ran their former teams like Nash and Howard did. Throw in Nash's injury and Howard's slow recovery and predicting a slow start for the Lakers was like predicting a the sun to rise in the morning. We all forget history so quickly, but when the Heat assembled their super team they finished November 10-8 before winning all but 1 game in December. It just takes some time and it's clear Mike Brown had no chance. That being said, he's no Popovich or Phil Jackson. He's not a good coach and the Lakers have a very small window with this team. You can't waste a season learning how to use these parts which is why if I was a Lakers fan I'm proud of the way the Lakers took charge early even if they were two faced about Mike Brown.  Speaking of two-faced the Lakers then dragged Phil Jackson through the mud by alluding he had the job then calling him at midnight to tell him no? It couldnt wait til 6am? Midnight? That's ridiculous. The Lakers front office is rude, but I think they were shrewd in both firing Brown and hiring D'Antoni. Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, and Ron Artest know how to play defense. They needed to get the most out of this offense. Phil Jackson has never had a point guard talent like Nash and I don't know if Jackson's offense would have maximized the potential of this Laker team. Of course new coach, still injured Nash, still recovering Dwight, and still gelling lineup means the Lakers will still be mediocre for some time. But by April this team could be humming. 

With the potpourri out of the way lets get to the picks! 

Week 10 Recap

Chargers @ Buccaneers (-3)

Money in the bank. This got a little closer than necessary for half the game but Phil Rivers showed up with the worst pick six of the season. Watch at the 1:30 mark. The Buccaneers didnt even get to show off it's potent offense with two defensive touchdowns, but the spread was easily covered. The sick thing is what the line for the Bucs is the week, which we'll get to in a minute. 

Lions @ Vikings (+2.5)

I knew it. The was a classic combo of two mediocre teams where one played a very tough schedule the last few weeks and the other played an easy schedule (yes, Seattle on the road is an easy team) and everyone is writing one team's obituary while raising another from its grave. Memo to the masses. The Lions are mediocre AT BEST. Even in 2011 they were mediocre at best. The Lions and Vikings are certainly even from a talent standpoint, there was no reason for the Vikings to be giving points at home. 

Falcons (-2.5) @ Saints

This was fucking ridiculous. I guess the Falcons were due to lose, but really they shouldn't have. An 8-0 team scores from a yard and half out with three downs against the second worst defense in the league to win and cover this spread. I hope people keep riding the Saints because they are basically the Patriots of the NFC with a much tougher schedule. If the Pats played the same schedule as the Saints the Pats would be lucky to be 4-5. 

Giants (-4) @ Bengals

Should've heeded the Eli Manning tired arm warnings. The Giants look terrible, but also they look terrible every November. Pretty much dropped the ball on this one. My bad. 

Chiefs @ Steelers (-12.5)

Stupid double digit spreads. Stupid Roethlisberger life threatening rib injury. Stupid Crennel actually handing the ball to his best player on offense. This is why I predicted a 7-9 record for the Steelers. Maybe they'll be better than 7-9, but they aren't good. Should've just gone with my bonus here. 

Bonus

Cowboys (-1.5) @ Eagles

Everything happened as expected, except for the random Cowboys meltdown. The O-Line for Philly hindered all offense and Nick Foles just wasn't ready to bring them back despite a ridiculously wide open throw to Maclin in the 3rd quarter. Stick a fork in the Eagles. They've totally quit on the season. 

Week 11 Picks

Packers (-3) @ Lions

What? I don't even know what to say with this line. Packers coming off a bye, Lions are mediocre. Why does the betting public think the Lions can even stay close in this game after getting beat by the Harvin-less Vikings. Why does the public continue liking the Lions?  There is no reason for it. Sure its in Detroit, but that turf only makes Green Bay faster. Spread should've been double this. 

Buccaneers (-1.5) @ Panthers

So no one really believes in the Buccaneers. There's always that team no one believes in that keeps winning and right now it's clearly the bucks. What have the Panthers shown that shows they should only be 1.5 pt underdogs to any team not named the Chiefs? Another hoem team and this one coming off a bye sure, but you still need talent. The Bucs defense hasn't been good but the Panthers offense has been horrible, and you just know the Bucs are putting up 31 at least this game. Can Carolina do the same?

Bears @ 49ers (-4)

Cutler is out and while the Bears defense has been every bit as good as the 49ers defense, you just know the lack of offensive production by the Bears is going to put too much pressure on that defense. This game reminds me of the Cardinals/49ers game earlier this year. The Cards were game on defense but they were on the field so often and the offense couldn't do anything the 49ers covered easy. This line says a lot though, it came out after Alex Smith passed concussion tests. It means despite facing a backup at home in primetime the gamblers dont believe at all in the 49ers offense and believe very strongly in the Bears defense. If the 49ers are as good as they say they are, they take this game and run away with it. 

Colts (+9.5) @ Patriots

This line is stupid. This line appears to have been made by some casual fan that didn't watch any football this year. The Patriots, no matter where they are, simply are incapable of covering any big spread. Meanwhile, Andrew Luck, Reggie Wayne, and the rest of the Colts passing offense is more than capable of throwing on what is easily a bottom 5 defense. This is how teams have been able to stay in these games. Andrew Luck has already thrown off that can't win on the road crap. I just don't know what the Patriots have shown lately to make anyone believe they can cover this spread, especially with the continued growth of Andrew Luck and whatever magic Chuck Pagano is throwing their way. 

Jets @ Rams (-3)

These lines crack me up. It's like a Titans/Jags line. No one cares and half the country hasnt seen one down of Rams football this year. This is why this line isn't 4 or higher. Did you see the Jets at Seattle last week? The Rams have gotten healthier and can smell blood in the water here. Its not sexy and it's weird making the Rams as 3 point favorites one of your 5 picks but geez, the betting community still thinks the Jets are ok when they are certainly a bad team.

Last week: 2-3, Season: 25-20 (28-24 with bonus)

Coaching Inferno Seat and Week 10 Supercontest

Well I've survived my first week of fatherhood no worse for the wear and have no even gotten in a fantasy draft. Life returns to normal (yeah, right). Well I promised something on the Giants. I guess we really shouldn't be surprised the Giants swept the Tigers. In playoff baseball we tend to forget the regular season because it usually doesn't matter. The playoffs are merely a 11-19 game stretch where the statistical evening of the playing field of a 162 game season is thrown out the window. Things like Marco Scutaro being named the NLCS MVP and the Yankees being swept in any postseason series are the norm in the playoffs. Winning a championship is about timing and luck as much as it is about the names on the lineup card.

But every now and then tendencies we saw in the regular season creep back up in a playoff series. For the Tigers it was their defense and hitting and completely unreliable bullpen that did them in. The Tigers only won 88 games for a reason and we forget that because they took out the hottest AL team in the first round and then swept the Yankees. But in the World Series the Tigers of the regular season emerged. If that team emerged at any stage of the playoffs they would have been soundly beaten. And they were.

The second reason we shouldn't be shocked is that long layoff. It just never helps anybody, ever. And there simply nothing you can do about it. In the playoffs you are penalized for doing your job right. There are more instances of this than I can count. This is why you see rust in basketball, hockey, and baseball playoffs and to  a small degree football playoffs. Even in my old man softball league it happens and the playoff games are the same day. In our league the #1 and #4 seed play at 630, the #2 and #3 at 730 and then the winners at 830 for the title. This design is allow the #1 seed to "rest" after likely winning its game. The problem is its old man softball. If you need to rest after a 55 minute game in which you sit on the bench for half of it you have some issues. Instead that #1 seed gets knocked out of its rhythm and starts slow in that championship game while the #2 or #3 seed just keeps on playing without missing a beat. This isnt scientific but I am confident saying or team has had a better record in the playoffs as a #2 than as a #1. Every time we are a #1 (which we are this season, god help us) we start that 830 game super slow and end up playing catch up with too little too late.

This is what happened to Detroit. They had a whole cycle of a rotation of days off meaning these pitchers were pitching on too much rest and the bats had lost all sense of timing. Verlander was on 8 days rest, Scherzer on 10, etc...Go back to 2010 when the Giants beat what seemed to be an unstoppable ace in Game 1 against the Rangers. Cliff Lee that day was pitching on 9 days rest. It's such a psychological advantage for a team to win that game and it showed. on regular rest Verlander would probably sport a sub 2.00 era against this particular Giants team if they played 10 times.  They took to Verlander and never looked back. It was the same blueprint in 2010. This World Series is just not as much of a shock as people may have thought. That said though, the Giants showed up and for that they are champs. Hold on to this moments you butthole bandwagon San Franciscans, you never know when your team will suck for 17 years following a cluster of championships and you forget what it's like.

In the NFL we are nearing coaching armageddon. I never understood why teams arent more liberal with the trigger finger on firing coaches. By Week 9 or 10 you know what you have. There is a proven track record of poor teams picking up their play with a change in scenery under the headset and it allows you to vet your candidates early and allow you to be better prepared to make that coaching decision immediately to give you the most possible transition time. But for some reason bad teams hang onto coaches for the whole season deciding its better to pay for the bad coaching than to pay the coach to simply leave. If I was a GM these are the coaches I'd fire immediately:

(Ed. Note: I found appropriate memes for every head coach except Crennel. I just couldn't find a good one. He's so bad people can't even make fun of him. Get lost Crennel.)


Romeo Crennel - I'm sorry when you've played 8 games and have never lead in regulation you can't possibly keep your job. Kansas City isn't the least talented team in the league but they play like it. Keeping him around is only hurting your franchise. There is a Save Our Chiefs twitter account that is now up to 120,000 followers. No other team, not even the Browns or the Bills feel this much despair about their franchise. Every week this goes on where the Chiefs never lead (and there is a high probability of continuing this week on the road in Pittsburgh) it makes it that much harder to bring those fans back. If I was this bad at my job I wouldn't have seen Week 3. Inexcusable. You are 1-7. You have zero hope to make the playoffs. Make the change and at least bring back some goodwill for your fans. This is borderline criminal what the front office is doing to them.

Andy Reid - This has gone on long enough. The team has quit on him and unlike the Chiefs, the Eagles could use the bounceback a new interim coach usually brings. The NFC East is still very much winnable for all but the Redskins but the Eagles can't do it with Reid and that's because he refuses to play a quarterback that would understand he has to release the ball NOW and that diving head first only leads to fumbles. Besides Reid's never won anything and is a constant running joke about how to properly mismanage crunch time. The Eagles would have multiple titles within the last decade with someone more competent running that team.

Jason Garrett - I'm doubling down here in the NFC East because the Cowboys are in an even more favorable position than the Eagles to still make playoff noise. No I'm not being a homer, check the schedule. The Cowboys had the toughest schedule in the first half and now they play 7 games against sub .500 teams. They could easily finish 10-6....if they had a head coach that knew what the fuck he was doing. Nothing has changed from Phillips to Garrett. NOTHING. The Cowboys still bog down in the red zone. The Cowboys can't convert crucial third downs. The Cowboys make ridiculous mental errors at the worst times. Yellow flags litter the field. All of this is coaching related. The Cowboys have a very legitimate path to a 7-1 second half and a 10-6 finish. But they won't. They will lose at least 2 games they shouldn't (just like they've lost 3 in recent weeks they shouldn't) finish 8-8 again and we do this merry go round again. Spare me. Please.

Pat Shurmur - He's awful. The Browns have talent but little in the way of coaching. As Simmons noted on Monday they were conservative in one situation while aggressive in another, with neither occurring at the appropriate times. Weeden is 29. You have a 5 year window with him and he could be legit, but he needs someone to put him in a position to win. You have a dominant left tackle, the best pair of corners in the league, an all-pro linebacker, and an electric running back. This team should be 3-5 or 4-4. Shurmur obviously isn't the best you could do.

Zombie Norv Turner - The guy has already blown a game to an interim interim head coach and gave his team no chance to win against the Broncos despite a 20+ point advantage. He lost to the aformentioned Browns when he only gave up 7 points. While some point the finger at Rivers, I point it squarely at zombie Turner. He's been dead long ago. He simply can't keep his team in position to win. The Chargers never lose those total head scratchers like the Cowboys do because Norv takes them out of it in the 3rd quarter. Norv is about 2.5 years overdue to be buried. Let's do the humane thing and stick a screwdriver in his brain.

These are easily the 5 worst head coaches in football. No reason not to dump them now. On to the picks!

Week 9 Recap

Bears (-3.5) @ Titans

Nope I wasn't missing anything here. The Bears have put up a couple of slow rollers the last couple weeks with Detroit and Carolina but this Bears team is good and has a historically good scoring defense. Teams should be afraid to put the ball up in the air against these guys because it's likely coming back the other way at least once a game. 

Dolphins (-2.5) @ Colts

The Dolphins just didn't have enough. They had a good shot at this spread until Luck was able to complete that heave into double coverage in the end zone. Luck likes playing at home and also Chuck Pagano gave an inspirational speech. This is the second time now I've bet against Chuck Pagano and lost. If he shows up on the sidelines at some point I'm dumping my kid's college fund into the Colts. 

Panthers @ Redskins (-3)

Double no-show. Now the Redskins are in "evaluation" mode. Too bad for Skins fans they had so many crucial injuries this season because this NFC East is still very winnable right now. This game was never close and now we have to watch out for too much RG3 hyperbole throwing lines. Losing at home handily to the Panthers does nothing for my confidence. 

Buccaneers (+1.5) @ Raiders

Two words: Muscle Hamster. Two more words: Raiders suck. 

Ravens (-3.5) @ Browns

Oi, I probably should not have won this one. The Ravens are a dangerous bet now. They are just missing a little too much talent from their opening day roster and unlike Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco simply hasn't made the leap. Here is what Flacco is: a mediocre quarterback playing with awesome talent around him. The fact Flacco has a better playoff record than Matt Ryan has little to do with the respective qualities of the QBs and more to do with the fact Flacco has my favorite running back in the game, a great defense, and a coach that knows what he is doing. The Browns are probably still sneaky good underdog value. 

Week 10 picks

Chargers @ Buccaneers (-3)

My Bucs pick for the playoffs is back alive! This team's offense has been loaded the last few weeks. Freeman is slinging touchdowns, Muscle Hamster is looking like some wicked Emmitt Smith/Ray Rice hybrid, and slow-ass Vincent Jackson seems uncoverable. Sure their defense hasn't been good and they traded Aqib Talib and they lost a second All-Pro guard for the season but there is a lot to like about the Bucs. There is almost nothing to like about the Chargers. They actually needed a second half to put away the god awful Chiefs. They are a west coast team playing an early east coast game. And I just bad mouthed Norv Turner. Walk the Pewter Plank, San Diego. 

Lions @ Vikings (+2.5)

Christian Ponder didn't all of the sudden become bad. They've had a tough stretch and I'm simply not buying any Lions stock. Especially when it involves going on the road in a division game. I know Harvin is almost assuredly out but Adrian Peterson has been lights out and Ponder can get back on the saddle against a below average Lions team. Give me my home dog here. 

Falcons (-2.5) @ Saints

No the Saints aren't the same Saints. They've beaten San Diego, Tampa (in a weird game), and Philadelphia. It's not exactly a murderers row and Tampa eviscerated their defense. The Falcons are due to lose, but you right them until they do. Their offense will have no problem out pacing the Saints. Due to the Saints recent resurgence against mediocre or bad teams the betting public would be all over this. Nothing has changed the last few weeks. If this spread was done in Week 7 instead of Week 10 it would've been Falcons -4 at least. 

Giants (-4) @ Bengals

The Bengals just aren't any good. They've lost four in a row, 3 of them at home, by an average of 7.25 points per game to the Dolphins, Browns, Steelers, and Broncos. The Giants are every bit as good as any of those teams. The Giants have been a little sluggish, but that's expected of this team. The Giants aren't a 13-3 regular season team. They need motivation every week. Running off wins for them leads to bad performances like they've had the past couple of weeks (barely beating Dallas despite 6 turnovers and losing a very winnable game against Pittsburgh). People are talking about how poor Eli is playing and now the Giants are getting less respect this week than normal. The Giants love the road and the relish in media talk about how they aren't one of the top 5 teams in the NFL. Giants win this one by a TD easy. 

Chiefs @ Steelers (-12.5)

I can't help myself. Matt Cassel, on the road, under the lights on Monday night? The O/U on Cassel turnovers is probably 3.5 and the over is playing at -120. 12.5 is a lot of points and usually not a spread I go for, but no one anywhere would be comfortable taking the Chiefs +12.5 here. Even a 75% performance by Big Ben and the Steelers defense should lead to a two touchdown win. Hopefully for Chiefs fans this is the game that does in Crennel. 

Bonus

Cowboys (-1.5) @ Eagles

The Cowboys gut punch you and break your heart but don't lack in talent. The Eagles are actually starting to lack talent, especially on the offensive line. No starting tackles or starting center. I mean even if the Eagles did want to do some things on offense that line can't help them. Scoring only 13 against the Saints is terrible. The Cowboys will be in the backfield all night and despite the fact Dallas will settle for at least 2 field goals where they should have had 2 touchdowns, they will win this game by more than a point.  

Last week: 3-2, Season: 23-17 (25-21 with bonus)