World Series is Back/Supercontest Week 8

(Ed. Note: I wrote this yesterday but didn’t post it until today. Of course I fail to acknowledge the fact that pitchers coming off of major layoffs like Verlander did last night really fucks with their performance. The Cliff Lee Game 1 2010 performance mentioned in Mr. Armchair’s blog linked below came on 9 days rest. There’s no way to really account for it, you don’t want to purposefully lose any playoff game but those long layoffs just never seem to benefit a team, especially when the other team has been playing several games during your layoff)

World Series starts tonight and it feels odd that I’m not bouncing off the walls right now like I have the last two years. There is nothing as a fan like watching your team play for championship. Sure as a fan you’ll sometimes be lucky enough to see some memorable individual accomplishments such as Wilt’s 100 or Kobe’s 81 (I think more impressive based on the era in which it happened), Nolan’s 7^th no-hitter, Nolan’s 5000^th strikeout, Cal’s last game in his ridiculous consecutive game streak, Adrian Peterson breaking the single game rushing record as a rookie (I was living in San Diego at the time, Chargers fans weren’t even mad, it was just an incredible performance), Flutie’s pass, The Band on the Field!, the Artest Melee (I’ll never forget where I was when I first saw it, it was almost like 9/11 in that respect). But these things pale in comparison to watching your team in a championship series or the BCS title game or the Super Bowl. The moment is bigger than all the players. This belongs to your team, a team you will root for long after these players are gone, this is real history. So congratulations to the fans of the Detroit Tigers, and a begrudging congratulations to the fans of the San Francisco Giants (even though your fans are mostly bandwagon assholes who don’t know shit about baseball) …enjoy the ride. Hopefully it’s a good one.

For me, it’s nearly impossible to pick this series. You could do a Dr. Jack Ramsey breakdown of the pitching, hitting, fielding, bullpens, baserunning, managers, homefield parks, etc…but it will get you no closer to predicting this series. On one side you have the American League team that probably faced the second toughest out in the A’s in the first round then annihilated a slumping bad Yankees team. The American League was clearly the best league this season with two 93 win teams that didn’t even make the playoffs, but then again, the AL was probably the best league the last two years and couldn’t get it done in the World Series.

For the Giants they have scraped by winning 6 elimination games combined in the last two series riding the bat of Marco Scutaro for crying out loud. The baseball postseason sure can give rise to some awkward stars (nobody ever, anywhere thought that Marco Scutaro would ever win a League Championship MVP award at any point in his life) with its high variance in 4-7 game series. This is also true for teams making it to the World Series. They aren’t always the best teams in their league (Sorry Giants fans you weren’t the best team in your league this year and you know it) but they definitely are one of the best and I’m hard pressed to find teams that don’t belong in the World Series when they make it there. The Cardinals may be an above average regular season team but when they get to the postseason they are just great. Despite barely getting in last year I thought they were a quite deserving team. The Giants are too. They have enough going for them to make this series a toss up.

For me (and this truly isn’t bias Giants fans) I have to pick the Tigers. Unlike the Cardinals, the Giants will not be facing a wilting pitching staff. Verlander is as strong as he has been all year and there is the possibility of facing his 3 times, but at least twice. Besides Verlander, Fister and Scherzer have been excellent in their starts and they’ll be facing Fister twice at least as well. In a series where the pitching edge has to go to the Tigers, the fact that they get 4 games against a NL roster makes them that much more dangerous. The Tigers aren’t hitting well that for sure, but they are getting timely hits just as the Giants are. If the scores get into the 5s and 6s I actually think the Giants have the edge, if it’s 3-1 Giants in the 8^th inning, the Giants have the edge. But I struggle to see too many instances where the Giants blwo it open in the early going as they did late in that series against the Cards. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers sweep or the Giants win in 7, but I just think when you have the best pitcher in the series and the best bat in the series its hard to pick against you. That being said the stink is on your Detroit. Make the AL proud. 

Of course if you want a Giants fan’s take check out Mr. Armchair’s Blog.

On to the Supercontest! I got back on the horse this week with a great weekend and even a Bears missed cover by a half point couldn’t ruin it despite them being the 3^rd team I needed to win a 3 team parlay, because I pussed out and hedged with the Lions guaranteeing me a positive outcome on Monday night. It was nice though I got the variance back my way. My picks have been mostly very solid, with the spreads being blown late rather than the teams just not showing up and this week I was the beneficiary of some nice late magic in a couple.

Before I recap I want to talk about these Thursday night games. They are complete bullshit from a gambling perspective. Actually they are complete bullshit from an integrity perspective as well. This season has totally been fucked by these games. Every week some team comes in hobbled. The beating these players go through requires a week of rest. How on earth are they supposed to recover when they are play 4 days later. The 49ers had to “rest” Frank Gore last week despite being their most effective weapon. In what universe is your best weapon rested in the 4^th quarter. I have a strong feeling this is going to happen this week to Adrian Peterson. While he had a good game he was put the test last week against Arizona’s physical defense. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a pass heavy game plan for Minnesota. My suggestion: no Thursday games without both teams being on bye the prior week. Not only would it make the game better but at least you wouldn’t be talking out your ass about player safety Mr. Goodell. Also, the world doesn’t want to see every team in primetime. The Bucs right now have no business being in primetime. You are making a billion dollars off this scheduling quirk, do it right.

Lets check the recap before this week’s picks.

WEEK 7 RECAP

Lions @ Bears (-6.5)

My one loss this week. It was disappointing seeing the Bears only put up 13 against the Lions, but it was clear Cutler wasn’t the same after getting destroyed by Suh. The fact the Lions only put up 7 was a given. The fact they covered on a touchdown with half a minute left is annoying. I think this game told us exactly what we already know. The Bears are good and the Lions offense is a mess. Curse you Stafford, you’ve fucked me twice in the last minute of games two weeks in a row.

Jaguars (+4.5) @ Raiders

This one should’ve been won more handily than it was, but when you have to play Chad Henne at QB you are in trouble. Prior to that though the Jaguars were laying the smackdown on the Raiders which was one of the more obvious calls this week. The Jags were on bye and the Raiders lost an enormous effort game against Atlanta the week before. The letdown was imminent.

Cowboys (-2.5) @ Panthers

Fortune smiles on me. The Cowboys looked like a lock to miss this spread until they kicked another field goal after the two minute because the Panthers suck. The fact Dallas was in this position is the first place shows me their offense is just not on the same page, their game against Baltimore obviously as fraudulent based on a terrible defense in Baltimore now. The Panthers though again fail to really put up points against a strong defense. Cam Newton is also overrated. He has 1 300 passing game in his last 18 games and his defense isn’t good enough to keep him in games. If you find the Panthers against an actual good offense, fire away.

Titans (+3.5) @ Bills

This looked like a lost bet too until Hasselbeck found Nate Washington in double coverage in the end zone on 4^th and a million. But for most of this game it was a solid call. Tennessee jumped out and was able to keep pace against the Bills terrible defense. This one definitely supported the take the points with two bad teams playing corollary.

Steelers (-2.5) @ Bengals

Easy call. The Steelers are the Bengals’ daddy. Despite the 7 point win, the Steelers by and large outplayed the Bengals, but were plagued by drops on offense. Gambling you are on notice. The Bengals office is just like the Lions’. The Steelers took away AJ Green and Cincy had problems moving the ball. If you find the Bengals against a good offense, fire away there as well.

WEEK 8 PICKS

(Ed. Note: Ride those road dogs! This wasn’t by design and I hate these stats usually since they just serve to take your eye off the ball but home favorites are some ridiculous number of games below .500 in covering)

Seahawks (+2) @ Lions

I just have no idea how the Lions are favored here. Short week after a brutally physical game against another very physical defense. All my previous concerns above. Seattle with 10 days between games and a secondary that is more than capable of handling Megatron and Titus Young. The Lions score maybe 14 again. Seattle and Beast Mode will perform much better than last week against SF. This is a bizarre spread that makes no sense to me.

Falcons (+2.5) @ Eagles

This is almost a fucking stupider spread. When the only reason the Eagles are favored here is because it’s an Andy Reid “after a bye” game that ignores all the other flaws of a team, you’re better off taking the points. Also, I wonder what the record is when Andy Reid comes off a bye facing a team that is also coming off a bye. I’m going to look that up right now…hold on a minute.  Haha amazing…the Eagles have only done this once under Andy Reid, in 2008 against…the Atlanta Falcons! They of course won because Andy Reid is perfect but these aren’t your 2008 Atlanta Falcons. I can tell you what the bye week adjustment was for Andy Reid: Fire your defensive coordinator and give the ball to Shady McCoy and bench Vick the second he fumbles. Whatever, the Eagles are a mess and the Falcons win close games, and there is no way the Eagles blow this one out. I’m feeling an Andy Reid loss here for the foirst time coming off a bye.

Redskins (+4.5) @ Steelers

This is not an ideal game, but you know what? Washington is better than Cincinnati and I can guarantee that had Madieu Williams actually performed his appropriate coverage the Redskins would be 3 pt dogs at most. I think you are getting a big free1.5 thanks to that one plan. The Steelers’ defense is not good and the Redskins offense is much more dynamic than Cincy’s. Plus RG3 just has magic, and I still believe the Steelers are no better than a 7-9 team. That means they find ways to lose these games.

Colts (+3.5) @ Titans

This is how quickly I abandon the Titans. I have no idea why the Titans are getting a .5 point edge beyond their homefield advantage, but they are. The Titans just can’t stop anyone, the Browns can. I see no reason why the Colts cant keep within a field goal pace of what Vegas feels is a sudden “juggernaut” in Tennessee.

Dolphins (+2) @ Jets

I like this game, but I don’t like the spread much. I would’ve thought maybe Vegas forgot about the Jets previous 5 weeks and just remembered last week where they almost beat a super overrated Patriots team. This game has all of the following corollaries: Team coming off a bye, team coming off an emotional loss, Mark Sanchez. How can I not take the points? Wish I was getting 3 though. Besides I’m still riding Miami as the sneaky good mediocre team in the AFC and this is games those teams win as underdogs. This time Miami can allow a random 2 pt conversion pass to a running back for a 3 pt win by Miami (stupid Rams).

Bonus

Patriots v Rams (+7) @ London

I probably shouldn’t pick this game, but as Mr. Armchair puts it: NFL in Europe my ass. Why do you need to do this? It’s the middle of the EPL season. Londoners don’t give a shit about football, as most of the rest of Europe doesn’t either. These teams don’t want to travel for hours to play a football game in front of a crowd as neutral as Switzerland. Basically I put this in the bonus because I have no idea how the Patriots are 7 pt favorites against anyone. ANYONE. Even the Bills or Titans or Chiefs. The Patriots have lost the killer instinct and anyone can play catchup on that Patriots defense. I think it works out better for New England if they are playing catchup like they did in Buffalo. Anyhow, this spread is currently 1-3 pts too high and after all the Rams were game against a Packers team that is starting to rev up its engines.

Bonus II!

Raiders @ Chiefs (-2)

I actually like several spreads, and without getting too crazy with Bonus picks I would’ve also put the Jaguars (+14) @ Packers and 49ers @ Cardinals (+6.5) in my picks, but I won’t. But since I withheld a bonus last week, I feel comfortable doing two this week. I like this one because Oakland sucks, they got a fortunate win and they are travelling to Arrowhead against a home team coming off a bye. Also I needed a favorite and this one is probably my favorite favorite (see what I did there?).  I know I’m banking on Brady Quinn and bet against him two weeks ago, but that’s the fickle nature of NFL bets. You have to jump off your biases as quick as you can and be objective as to the matchups and circumstances. You know what else I like, the fact that Oakland hasn’t lost at Kansas City since 2006. If I’m going against Bye Week Andy, I’m going against this little nugget too.

Last week: 4-1, Season: 17-13 (19-15 with bonus)

Interim-Interim Coaches and Supercontest Week 7

Well, my Detroit/St. Louis World Series call last week is looking better every day. Such a crucial matchup tonight with Lincecum on the mound for the Giants against Adam Wainwright. I canvassed some Giants fans I know and most seem cautiously optimistic about Lincecum going tonight. They cite his second half and his postseason relief appearances as evidence he’s turned the corner. Im not a believer, but he very well may rise to the occasion. Game 4 of the NLCS is not a road game in June against the Nationals. If he has any semblance left of his former Cy Young abilities, he’ll unleash it tonight. The Giants season largely hinges on it. They won’t be able to afford going down 3-1 with another Bumgarner start looming.

Detroit on the other hand has simply rolled through a horribly slumping Yankees team that lost its face, captain, and one of its actually productive offensive players this postseason in Derek Jeter. Prior to the postseason I dismissed the Tigers as a non-threat. I don’t think I was totally wrong. Things that plagued them all season have cropped up in both their series but they have been fortunate enough to get the most lights out pitching performance of these playoffs from their entire rotation. The lineup still struggles to score and the back end of that bullpen is a mess. It drives me nuts seeing such an incomplete team run on to the World Series when the Rangers this year working on all cylinders would have crushed the Tigers. That’s baseball though, as the Yankees are figuring out…going cold in September and October kills your postseason fast.

I still stand by my pick, if St. Louis gets by the Giants I think they win it all and mail a nice thank you letter to Bud Selig for the extra wild card spot.

Before I get into the recap of my own mini-slump, I wanted to speak about coaching in the NFL. We are in Week 7 and it’s getting close to time for our first dismissal and mid-season interim coach.  Sure we’ve already had an interim-interim coach and a interim coach for medical reasons, but no one has been fired yet. It’s coming. In no other sport is coaching an equal factor in determining whether a team wins or loses. Managers in baseball can lose games, but they never win them. Basketball coaches can help, and certainly there were some great ones versus terrible ones, but basketball is such an individual sport that no matter how good you are, unless you have one of the 10 elite players in the league (or a player playing like one) you simply can’t win, no matter how good you are. I mean Erik Spoelstra is not a good NBA. He was abused by Rick Carlisle, and almost lost to Scotty Brooks (also not a good NBA coach) in the NBA Finals the past two years. He also almost got knocked out Doc Rivers with a much more inferior squad of players in the East Finals last year.

But in the NFL coaches matter. We watched the Saints roll with an interim interim coach that had no idea what he was doing and lead them to an 0-4 team until they ran into easily the worst head coach in the league Norv Turner. While the Colts were spirited in their first game with an interim head coach, they got simply abused against a clearly bad Jets team. Andy Reid has no idea how to finish games or manage the most crucial situations that require the most intervention by coaches.

Conversely, coaches like Jim Harbaugh, John Harbuagh, Tom Coughlin, John Fox, Bill Belichick know how to get the most from what they have. I think John Fox is one of the more underrated coaches in the NFL, but a great stat was shown on MNF this week that shows John Fox as 40-3 when getting 26 points from his team. It shows me that he knows how to control a game such that even getting less than 4 touchdowns he can win almost every time. Andy Reid wouldn’t know what to do. Norv Turner sure as hell doesn’t know what he’s doing.

 I’ve never seen a coach panic as bad as he did with a 24-14 lead. Denver can’t stop the run. You can’t pass protect. Makes perfect sense to keep grinding this thing out, keeping yourself in short 2^nd and 3^rd downs and keeping the Broncos out of their pass rush package and opening yourself for the play action game and short pass game that works so well to hide an offensive line that is banged up and underperforming. Instead Norv  just wings it around the field exposing Rivers to the pass rush that resulted in a bunch of turnovers. Let’s put it this way, the Broncos have been down by 20+ four times this year and Norv is only one to blow it. I simply do not understand how this happens. How can a GM continue to be employed when he endorses such a shitty coach for years?

This is how: be an owner and a GM. Hi, my name is Jerry Jones. I am one crazy egomaniac that thinks I know even a smidgeon about player personnel. I want all the attention, and absolutely do not want to be upstaged by my head coach. This is why I have employed Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett as head coaches since Parcells left. Parcells occupied too much media. Wade and Jason hang out in the background while I get to talk and say how ‘disappointed’ I am in my team’s mounting losses. Let’s not mention the fact that Wade and Jason have no business being head coaches. Wade Phillips is THRIVING as the defensive coordinator in Houston. Jason Garrett would be an effective offensive coordinator in a lot of places. But these guys are simply not head coaches. They aren’t leaders. They are specialized on one side of the ball. An effective head coach is a game manager, not a play caller. That’s why you have coordinators. You come up with what you want accomplished and the coordinator goes and finds the play for you. I think this has killed Garrett. He simply botches time management.  Take last week for example. Dallas got into way too many situations where the play clock was near expiring as Dallas got set. I’ve never seen two illegal shift penalties back to back. But when you get plays in late and run out of time this crap happens. After recovering the onside kick AND getting bailed out with what I thought was a ticky tack PI call  you had about 26 seconds left and one timeout and in position for a difficult 52 yard field goal. So what do you do? Well the first thing Jason Garret did was throw a flare out to Dez Bryant for a yard that kept the clock rolling. Well the play ended in like 3 seconds, you can take your timeout with 23 seconds left and run ANY play you want and still have ample time to stop the clock via spike. What does Jason Garrett do? He decides 51 yards is close enough runs 17 seconds off the clock and takes his timeout with 6 seconds left to kick a 51 yard field goal that is missed wide left.  Here is what I think is going through his head after the PI call:

Jason Garrett: YES, the refs just totally bailed me out. Now what do I do…

(15 seconds elapse in silence over Tony Romo’s earpiece)

Jason Garrett: Oh crap, 10 seconds left on the play clock, uhhhh bubble screen to Dez, yeah that will work.

(Garrett watches the play)

Jason Garrett: Well that didn’t work. (Ignores that the clock is still running)

Bill Callahan (O-Coordinator for Dallas): Hey Jason I can call a play if you would like, I’ve been pretty bored up here and I thought it was my job to call plays and with our timeout I have a great route for Witten in the soft spot of the Ravens middle zone.

Jason Garrett: Well I don’t know, I’ve only ever called the plays and I’m pretty good at it.

Bill Callahan: Well you hired me to coordinate the offense and I did lead the Raiders to a Super Bowl in 2002, and you haven’t even gotten to the playoffs yet.

Jason Garrett: Hold that thought…where does our kicker like the ball? Someone track down that Bailey kid!

(clock ticks to under 10 seconds)

(Romo has a what bunch of fucking idiots I work with look on his face)

Jason Garrett: Ok, I got it! Tony run 42 fake dive X-Post with a hard count…oh is that 6 seconds the play clock or the game clock? Game clock?!?!? Timeout! Oh there you are Bailey, where do you like the ball?

Dan Bailey: Right hash mark.

Jason Garrett: Where’s the ball?

Dan Bailey: Left hash mark.

Jason Garrett: Oh well too late now, just go save my ass.

(Dan Bailey hooks the kick left, when a right hash mark kick would have been straight down the middle)

Jerry Jones: Ok, I have to look solemn. I’m ‘disappointed’. Except now Garrett is the scapegoat again, and people will yell at him and not me for being a terrible personnel man.

Me: (Bandaging my hand after punching a window while I email to the guy at www.firejasongarrett.com to sign on as a contributor).

It has been torture being a Cowboys fan for the last decade. But keep these lessons in mind when a team with a bad coach is favored. Just as Andy Reid and Norv Turner did last week, it’s real easy for them to pull defeat from the jaws of victory.

On to the Supercontest!

WEEK 6 RECAP

Bengals (PK) @ Browns

What the hell, man? Is it me or is it now time to start betting against Andy Dalton at every chance? He has looked terrible this season. But so has that Cincinnati run game. Still, it’s the Cleveland Browns, have some pride Cincy. Also for the love of god some one please cover Josh Gordon. The guy only has 12 catches this year and is averaging 22 yards a catch. He only goes one way, up the field. Ugh. I should’ve just stayed away, but the pick’em was so tantalizing.

Patriots (-3.5) @ Seahawks

This is another bullshit should’ve covered game, like I had last week. A Tom Brady intentional grounding through the back of the end zone at the half? An ill-advised Tom Brady pass into the end zone that gets picked? Ridiculous. Seattle has a good defense, but had absolutely no business winning this game or even making it closer than 7 points. I have no idea what’s going on in New England but they can’t be trusted right now.

Vikings (-2.5) @ Redskins

Simmons had been warning me about this game. A decent Vikings team going on the road was bound to have a letdown game. RG3 was back and geez he was unstoppable on the ground. I’m not taking too many lessons from this game other than Simmons warned me. But with this thing you either go with your head or you go with some kind of law of averages gut feeling that the Viking shave to have a let down at some point. I’m not upset by this pick.

Chiefs @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

Easy. Money. I am really sad the Chiefs are on bye this week.  

Giants (+4.5) @ 49ers

Exactly what I thought would happen, happened. The Giants stayed even and then got ahead and in the second half simply abused Alex Smith. Annoying 49er friends I have keep trying to tell me Alex Smith is better than Tony Romo. You guys know who you are. You also know you’re full of it. This is why I can’t pick the 49ers to win the Super Bowl, or even get there. You just simply can’t be one of those teams that loses the second you are down 10. It’s going to happen. A team may score on it’s first drive, you may give a special team touchdown, a random defensive td might happen on a fumble, a bad penalty call, something. In the two games they have gone down early in the first half they’ve simply haven’t had a chance to win. I just think the 49ers have to be one of the least likely of the favorites to win it all based on that.

BONUS

Rams @ Dolphins (-3.5)

This was just a bonus, but man this one stung. This was a perfect read, until freaking Steven Jackson CATCHES a 2 pt conversion on the right side of the end zone. So stupid. I hate picking spreads in football sometimes. Bullshit like this happens way too often. That being said, I’m riding the Dolphins at home and against mediocre and bad teams. I think in such a crappy conference they actually have 5 or 6 seed potential now.

WEEK 7 PICKS

(Ed. Note: Before I pick these, I just found it very interesting how few 7.5+ spreads there have been these last couple of weeks. Even Vegas doesn’t seem to have that good of an idea of what’s going on. Either that or that we are more in parity than ever in the NFL)

Lions @ Bears (-6.5)

Give me the Bears. The Lions are bad. They were absolutely crushed last weekend until Andy Reid couldn’t figure out how to stop a team they had stopped easily for 3 quarters. How do you just forget? In other news, I still don’t believe in the Lions. They haven’t looked good in any game this year. You know who has looked good in several games? Da Bears. Coming off a bye against a team that can’t run, I smell at least one Charles Tillman touchdown and just total domination on all sides. That’s a lot of points to give up on MNF but it is at home and I think the Bears will succeed where the Eagles failed.

Jaguars (+4.5) @ Raiders

Look, I know picking the Jaguars seems kind of taboo or whatever, since we don’t know what they are. But I do know the Raiders are bad and should not be giving 4.5 points to anybody. Jacksonville off bye helps this decision too, especially with the Raiders coming off an emotional loss on the road. I don’t really see the Raiders getting up for this game the same way and while they can win this game just fine, 4.5 is too many points.

Cowboys (-2.5) @ Panthers

I tried to stay away from betting one way or another on the Cowboys, but with 6 teams on bye and my forbidden use of the Thursday game, I don’t have too many to choose from. I think this spread is 1.5 pts too low. The Panthers may be home, coming off a bye, but I have no faith in them whatsoever. Dallas can run and pass all over the Panthers and the Cowboys defense is legit. I can see them getting Cam into a situation where he has to win downfield and he just can’t do it. Of course, I am totally prepared for Garrett and the Cowboys to let me down again.  

Titans (+3.5) @ Bills

I don’t know why I am doing it. I know it’s wrong. I know I shouldn’t do it. But I JUST CAN’T HELP MYSELF. I like the 10 days off. I like that Buffalo still almost lost to an offense that sucks even worse than Tennessee’s. I like that Buffalo’s offense just doesn’t seem right. I like that Tennessee showed up at least against Pittsburgh, even if they shouldn’t have won that game and I like the more than field goal spread. Am I going to lose here? Probably, but I just can’t help myself. The Titans are like a drug for me. Must have something to do with me trying to will Chris Johnson to become a useful fantasy player.

Steelers (-2.5) @ Bengals

This is simply a spite pick. Honestly this qualifies as a trap game but I just couldn’t get myself to take the Packers as 5.5 favorites on the road against the Rams. I couldn’t do it, I don’t buy what the Packers did last week as legitimate. Here, I simply am pissed off at the Bengals for fucking an easy pick last week. Pittsburgh is banged up everywhere but I don’t care. They need this game or else they are out of the division. The Bengals have a very bad defense that made Brandon Weeden look quite competent. Andy Dalton has been shitacular. I’m riding my gut that Pittsburgh wins an ugly one on Sunday night.

Last week: 2-3, Season: 13-12 (15-14 with bonus)

October Excitement and Supercontest Week 6

I still will never understand America’s continuing declining love of baseball and refusal to love soccer. Football is a good sport, but it can have its mundane qualities too. 40 seconds between actions, 3 and outs, 2 yard carries, incomplete passes, there is a lot of boring aspects to individual plays in football. As I’ve written and talked about for years, basketball isn’t even a 4 quarter spectator sport, it’s a 1 quarter spectator sport. For most of the first 3 quarters you pay to watch, or invest time to watch, guys loafing around operating at 50-75% on any given play.

Meanwhile baseball and soccer both have the benefit of building a crescendo before scores (runners on base, build-up counter-attack in soccer) and either giving you a big let down or huge jubilation. You just don’t get those same emotional highs and lows in the other two sports, with the exception of maybe a deep pass in football. Sure baseball and soccer have its equally mundane parts, but so does every other sport.

While my Rangers were a complete let down this year it’s still extraordinarily hard to turn the playoffs off. Every crescendo you feel in a regular baseball game is magnified in the playoffs. This year’s playoff’s has been no exception.  Starting with the wild card games and continuing through every division series going the distance these playoffs have been more memorable in the early stages than most.

We’ve had three walk-off wins, we’ve had a 225 foot infield fly rule, we’ve had a number of major league rookie starting pitchers throw down excellent games (Darvish, Nearly every A’s starter), we’ve had back to back extra inning games in one series, a complete game shutout by the best pitcher in baseball in a Game 5, and we’ve seen the first ever 0-2 deficit overcome in the NLDS.

As we continue the road to another baseball champion I had a few thoughts to share about what has happened in the last week with every team:

Texas: No heart. It’s as simple as that. Maybe Ron Washington gets blamed for not resting some of the starters down the stretch but what was he supposed to do? The job is to win the division and you have play your players until you get there. It’s then the players’ job to perform. None of those guys are rookies. That whole team is basically World Series veterans. They just showed me no heart heading into that last two week stretch. Then when their one “rookie” throws a playoff gem, no one steps up to back him up. Hopefully the taste of embarrassment boosts this team going into the offseason with decisions about Hamilton and Napoli at the forefront.

Atlanta: I guess if there was one team jobbed by the new playoff system it was Atlanta. But really, you need to just play the game. It wasn’t as if Atlanta backed into the playoffs either, they made so progress on Washington towards the end and looked primed to make a run. But St. Louis was just better.  The infield fly call itself wasn’t that bad either, it’s just the timing and the fact no one caught the ball. It’s a borderline call, especially given the language “ordinary effort by an infielder”. The shortstop in that case certainly wasn’t making anything other than ordinary effort, it just happened to be a lot of ordinary effort. Kind of a sad way for Chipper to end his career, but it’s better than finishing last place.  Atlanta has a bright future.

Cincinnati: Ahhhh, thank you Cincinnati for taking some of the attention away from our collapse. The first team in NLDS history to lose a 2-0 series lead and probably Dusty’s last season. It is unfortunate to lose your Cy Young candidate in the first inning and not have him available the rest of the series and then be forced to pitch your second best pitcher after being sick the day before, but you just gotta win. Homer Bailey threw a gem and the Reds couldn’t close it out against Vogelsong. That’s too bad.

Oakland: It was a great run and that might have been the first time I’ve seen a home team lose an elimination game and then do a curtain call to the fans who gave them a standing ovation. No one knows what to expect from these kids next year but its clear they have to be considered armed and dangerous. Unlike the Baltimore in their  series though, I just think Oakland was just slightly outplayed the entire series. But they may have just taken the next World Series champs 5 games and that’s something to be proud of for a bunch of guys expected to lose all season.

Baltimore: Well they have one shot against CC to advance to a place not even the most diehard Orioles fan thought they would go: the ALCS. Baltimore by all rights probably should have punched their ticket already, but one thing is for sure in these last two games at the Bronx, the Orioles aren’t phased one bit. A night after losing a gut punch game in the 9^th and 12^th innings, the Orioles played tough got out of jams and sprung a run in the 13^th to win. It’s never say die for the Orioles. Despite the result tonight, Baltimore fans should eb proud. Too bad they wont get the chance to give their Birds a standing O after the game.

New York: A surprisingly low scoring series for the Bronx Bombers. Their offense is woefully bad right now. If they are going to advance they need to get the Granderson and ARod bats going. Just like the A’s you can’t expect the Yankees to win a pitching duel against the Tigers with no offense. I hope the Orioles get it done, but just like Verlander last night in game 5 it’s hard to bet against CC on the line here tonight.

Washington: A team I predicted to win a division then flame out in the playoffs almost did that. The Edwin Jackson start in game 3 shows how much Washington needed Strasburg this series and beyond. Despite their struggles, they have hung around enough to force a game 5 at home with Gio Gonzalez on the mound. There are worse places to be. I thought this team was these least surprising “surprising” playoff team so while it awesome for the fans in Washington have postseason baseball for the first time in several decade I don’t think the Nationals fans will be happy with just forcing a 5 game series the way A’s fans were.

St. Louis: A team that just won’t die. 10 games worse than the Nationals in the National League despite playing in a division where they get a lot of games against Chicago and Houston, yet they look every bit like the better team in this series. I hope nothing more than for these guys to lose today, but I’m just not confident. They have come to play every game of the playoffs so far and these guys have a chance to run it all the way back for another title. Makes me sick.

San Francisco: Another team that wouldn’t die. With the stupidest playoff motto “Orange October” they lucked out not having to face the full force of the Reds pitching staff. I think if the Cards and Giants play the Cards will crush them, I think Giants fans are hoping for the Nationals to pull off the victory knowing they don’t have to face Strasburg who absolutely dominated them this year. I’m still hard-pressed to believe this is the best team in the National League.

Detroit: They definitely faced one of the toughest rotations in the American League playoffs and came out and showed they had probably the best. Between Verlander, Fister, and Scherzer it’s just going to be hard for Baltimore or New York to win 4. Unless they can get to the bullpen early. Detroit’s bullpen is mess and while Valverde certainly blew the save in Game 4, he was lucky there was a save to be had as Benoit was equally bad in the 8^th inning. Detroit is not without its flaws but they certainly look poised to claim a title as well.

My world series call at this point is Detroit v. Washington/St. Louis.  I think if St. Louis make it they win again, if Washington makes it I think Detroit wins. Too bad I can’t say the name Rangers in this sentence. Still can’t believe what a letdown they were.

On to the Supercontest!

WEEK 5 RECAP

Falcons (-3) @ Redskins

The Falcons sure looked sluggish for a little while but then an RG3 concussion and superior offensive talent won the day. The Falcons could be a shaky bet until they actually lose now, but I think if I’m only laying 1-4 points against bad defenses I’ll take the Falcons every week. That offense is simply too good. I just think the Falcons will see more 5-8 spreads going forward now after taking care of business on the road by 7.

Texans (-8) @ Jets

This game is why gambling is frustrating. One turnover and one kick return and the Texans can’t cover an otherwise easy to cover game. Take away the momentum and good field position from the Schaub interception and the ridiculously bad coverage by the Texans on McKnight’s return and you are looking at 23-3. About the score I predicted for this game. That one stung but not as bad as a couple others on here.

Ravens (-5) @ Chiefs

This was more hurtful. It also goes to show that Flacco is not and probably win never be elite. When Kansas City has been torched by every QB from Brees to Rivers to Fitzpatrick you can’t put up this stinker. This game was maddening, but from a teaser perspective it could’ve been much worse if Cassel didn’t fumble at the goal line. I don’t have any explanation for this one other than Flacco isn’t elite and this is just another example of why gambling is tough in the NFL.

Packers (-7) @ Colts

For one half I was dead-on in this pick. Green Bay came out hard and the Colts looked sluggish as Green Bay gets a quick 21-3 lead and I cost to a win here. But noooooo, Green Bay, as a they have done all year, takes a whole half off and allows the Colts to storm back and win. Ridiculous. This game blew my 6 team 10am teaser (I hit everyone else even the Browns +14.5). I’m out on the Packers, I was a little worried as I expressed coming into this game but I’m not picking them to cover squat. They just don’t look anything like the team from last year. I think it’s that regular season syndrome where you go 15-1 lose in your first playoff game and realize that winning 15 games in the regular season doesn’t mean shit if you can’t win in the playoffs. This happens all the time in sports and has happened recently with some of my teams: The 2008 Mavericks regular season was sloppy after coasting to the best record in 2007 only to get beat in the first round by the #8 seed and this year’s Rangers who clearly grew tired of the regular season so much so they pissed away their division in a span of 10 games. The Packers are only going to do enough to win or to just barely lose all season. Unless it’s against Jay Cutler in Green Bay.  Of course, I also got bit by karma like I feared for betting against a team whose coach was just diagnosed with leukemia.

Chargers (+3.5) @ Saints

Yet another one that got blown at the end of the game. Only Norv Turner can blow a 24-14 lead to an interim interim head coach. I had this spread locked down all game until the 4^th quarter and this ultimately let me down. I’m really pissed I went 1-4 this week because it’s one of the most inexplicable 1-4 records. I didn’t make bad picks. Good teams (or mediocre teams in the case of the Chargers) simply pulled out enough to win (or lose if you are the goddamn Packers). I guess moving into Week 6 it’s something to consider that these good teams are getting ground down just as much as the bad teams.

BONUS

Eagles (+3.5) @ Steelers

Of course my bonus pick was sort of lucky and sort of not. Pittsburgh is not a good team. Philadelphia is not a good team. They both showed that in this game. But, Philadelphia was looking grossly incompetent on offense for nearly the entire game until they managed one good drive into the end zone without turning it over near the end. Then the Steelers pulled out just enough to win. Haha, too bad I made this my bonus and not one of the 5, but I think it was the right call.

A little side note, last night’s game is a perfect example of why I now refuse to make any Thursday night game one of my picks. Every week one team doesn’t show up, but the problem is, it’s not just a pick the home team thing, or pick the underdog thing. At home as an underdog, Tennessee easily covered what I thought was a low spread (5.5). At home as a favorite, Baltimore didn’t cover. At home as a pick ‘em the Panthers embarrassed themselves. The Thursday night game is a terrible place to make picks. What this does show me is that Pittsburgh is not good, and I feel as confident as ever in my 7-9 prediction for them.

WEEK 6 PICKS

Bengals (PK) @ Browns

The Bengals aren’t good, but the Browns are clearly terrible. After taking a quick 14 nothing lead thanks to one Bradshaw fumble and one blown coverage, the Browns couldn’t move the ball the rest of the game except in garbage time down 21 and proceeded to give up 41 points after taking that quick lead. I don’t think Cincinnati’s loss is that bad. It’s clear now that Miami is the AFC’s Vikings, a spunky team that doesn’t have a totally ineffective offense to pair along with a decent defense.  Cincy has to win this game.

Patriots (-3.5) @ Seahawks

Yeah, yeah I know, it’s taboo to pick against the Seahawks at home. But there aren’t a lot of fun spreads out there and I thought the Pats are giving a point less here than they should. After all, the Packers ostensibly beat Seattle in Seattle by 5. Why can’t the Patriots beat them by 4? The Patriots are moving the ball very well and since the beginning of the second half against Buffalo in Week 4 they have been as good on offense as any team. Also, this pick is an indictment on Russell Wilson. Carolina does not have a good defense yet the Seahawks can barely muster up one decent touchdown drive the whole game. Even if the Seahawks defense comes to play this still smells like 20-10.

Vikings (-2.5) @ Redskins

The Vikings are due for a letdown game, but I said it two weeks ago and I’m sticking by it until proven otherwise, I like Vikings lines where the spreads are between -3 and +3. I have no confidence the Redskins can win this game, even at home, even with RG3 back against a decent defense. If I’m giving less than 3 in that case I’ll take it.

Chiefs @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

I want to bet against Brady Quinn, that’s it really. Plus the Bucs are coming off a bye. Plus, I’d really like to see Jamaal Charles try to run against a 9 man front. Plus Kansas City is on the road. That’s 3 plusses. Enough for me to lay 3.5 points.

Giants (+4.5) @ 49ers

This is a prototypical game the Giants win. On the road, as underdogs, against a good team. The one concern you have here is watching the Giants go down 10+ early.  If that happens it will be pretty damn hard for the Giants to worm their way back, and the Giants have had a bad history this season already of going down big to lesser teams (Bucs and Browns). I think they get up for this one, as they usually do in these types of circumstances.  It will be interesting to watch the Niners offense actually work against a defense that can do at least one thing productively. They haven’t seen that in 3 weeks.

BONUS

Rams @ Dolphins (-3.5)

I already explained above I think the Dolphins are a quality team. What drives this is that the Rams aren’t good, just benefitted last week from one of the worst offensive line performances of the season last week by the Cardinals. But if you told me that Bradford would complete only 33% of his passes and the running game averaged 3.5 ypc, I would think they lost. I can foresee similar numbers by the Rams in Miami this week and the Dolphins, unlike the Cardinals, actually do have a counter for Chris Long on their offensive line. This won’t be an exciting game but certainly one the Dolphins can win handily.

Last week: 1-4, Season: 11-9 (13-10 with bonus)

MLB Wrap Up With Week 5 Supercontest

Super blog! Ill give you guys a rundown of how well I predicted the baseball season. Below is each team as they appear in the final standings with my predicted record in parentheses. If you don’t care then jump on down to this week’s Supercontest recap and picks!

AL WEST

Oakland A's 94-68 (77-85)

Texas Rangers 93-69 (98-64)
Anaheim Angels 89-73 (96-66)
Seattle 75-87 (69-93)

Obviously no one picked the A’s to win the west with the two time defending champs Rangers team and a completely reloaded Angels team sitting in the same division, but I will take credit for predicting a much better season for the A’s than most. As predicted the offense was better than last year and while I though McCarthy and Parker would help offset the loss of Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill (who really wasn’t that good last year) what obviously set this team over the edge was performances by 30 other rookies that simply blew apart all statistical projections for players like Brandon Moss, Tommy Milone, and even players like Josh Donaldson (who I watched in Sacramento last year and though he had a bench future ahead). I’m not sure what I’m going to do with this team next year but among sabermetricians they are a likely Top 3 regression candidate. Who knows, maybe the kids are just that good.

For Texas this was a good lesson for both the players and the fans. Divisions are hard to win. Every game matters. Never assume anything. Texas made it easy to assume a division by compiling a rather large division lead for much of the season only to piss it away with a 4-9 stretch at the end of the season. Now they have to set out to do what the Cardinals did last year, take it from the wild card to the championship. There is still a lot of talent and a bunch of postseason experience on the roster. It’s hard to have a lot of expectations for this team right now, but with a possible three straight home games to start the postseason they could build up for a run.

Anaheim has to be the most disappointing team of the season. They basically killed themselves in April and couldn’t play enough catchup the rest of the way. What is doubling disappointing is that they may just be the scariest team right now and have nothing to play for. At least Mike Trout made them a whoel bunch of money to pay that albatross Pujols contract.

Seattle made some nice strides, turning this into possibly the toughest division from top to bottom in all of baseball. The problem here is they just still lack enough rotation depth and offensive talent to compete in the AL. Selling King Felix for a king’s ransom may be the best possible route to get this team moving in the next couple of years.

AL CENTRAL

Detroit Tigers 88-74 (101-61)
Chicago White Sox 85-77  (81-81)
Kansas City Royals 72-90 (75-87)
Cleveland Indians 68-94 (72-90)

Minnesota Twins 66-96 (80-82)

Detroit sure made it interesting. I don’t think this team is as scary as people think they are heading into the postseason and there is a significant chance they get run right out by the A’s. The Tigers ended their schedule in similar fashion to the Giants: A month’s worth of easy pickings in the division. Verlander and Scherzer are capable postseason pitchers but that bullpen and offense outside of Cabrera and Fielder  (and maybe Austin Jackson) simply hasn’t been great all season.  But they did win the easiest division in baseball just not in the dominating fashion I, and many others, expected.

Chicago was shockingly more talented this season than I predicted, yet still only outpaced my predictions by 4 games thanks to a horrible September. It’s amazing what 3 players can do for you and Chris Sale, Adam Dunn’s revived zombie corpse, and the everlasting AJ Pierzynski made all the difference for the White Sox in the first 5 months of the season. They have enough talent to maintain a strangle hold on second, but as constituted this division should continue to be Detroit’s for a few more years.

Kansas City was about expected. There just isn’t much to say about them. A lot of young talent on offense, some of which still has to grow and some of which has grown, but until they get a couple half decent starters in there, they will continue to disappoint.

Cleveland showed us their true colors. I’m glad I was a smart cookie and picked them fourth in this division.  There just is simply no talent on this team. Jimenez is a joke and Santana and Choo, while nice players are not franchise carriers. But really, that rotation has to improve. When Justin Masterson is your statistical leader in wins (11), ERA (4.93), K (153), and WHIP (1.45) you have problems, man.

I guess I overvalued the return of Mauer, Morneau, and Span to this offense and failed to consider that the Twins rotation also sucks. Even with more offense in Josh Willingham they sucked bad. These last three teams are terrible pitching wise and only Kansas City even comes close to carrying an offense to counteract those problems. I need to make sure I remember this heading into next year.

AL EAST

New York Yankees 95-67 (96-66)
Baltimore Orioles 93-69 (69-93)

Tampa Bay Rays 90-72 (93-69)
Toronto Blue Jays 73-89 (84-78)
Boston Valentines 69-93 (90-72)

Surprise, surprise the Yankees win. I thought it would be close, but it wasn’t quite close with the team I expected. Still at this point, until the Yankees collapse, picking them as division winners is easy money. Despite injuries to ARod, Teixeira, and CC (twice), the Yankees just kept coming. I look forward to hopefully beating them out of the playoffs again.

The fighting Showalters! Ok this is obviously the top pick for regression next year with that negative run differential. Adam Jones finally broke out. He needs to be a lesson to everyone that until a guy really gets to 27 or 28 you cant throw him out. Baseball is a funny game like that. It’s like being a quarterback in football, there is so much to learn at the highest level about your offensive approach that it can take years. Also kudos to Chris Davis (age 26) for finally figuring it out too. His 33 home runs would have been useful at first base for the Rangers this year. I wouldn’t have high hopes if I was an Orioles fan, especially after getting beat down by a good pitching staff. They remind me of the Rangers of the late 90s that just had so much offense and not enough pitching they could win big or lose big. 

Tampa Bay reaches about the same levels of disappointment as the Angels. Clearly the AL’s best rotation was not enough to make up for Evan Longoria’s absence as the offense struggled mightily at times. They almost came back but it just wasn’t enough this year. I just don’t know where they go from here. They probably won’t retain Upton, who was their best run producer while Longoria was out and don’t have the cash to make any big splashes anywhere. That awesome rotation is getting wasted by penny pinching owners in Tampa.

Man, I told you guys Toronto wasn’t that good. In hindsight the 84 wins was too high for this team. Of course losing Bautista  for an extended period of time didn’t help but Edwin ENcarnacion did have a career year. For Toronto its like Seattle, some talent in places, but just lesser talent than its division rivals. Its rotation cant compete with the Rays and its offense cant compete with the Yankees. Just no way they do anything in this division.

Sigh, I thought talent would win out at the end of the day over the Bobby Valentine sideshow. Now that talent is pushed out of Boston along with Bobby V. All of it just smacks of a throwaway year from the outset in Boston. Is the team positioning itself to sell? Do they want to make a run at Upton and Hamilton? What about Greinke? Or do they play the developmental game next season? I don’t envy Red Sox fans right now. The team is a mess and it might get messier before it gets better.

NL WEST

San Francisco Giants 94-68 (92-70)
Los Angeles Dodgers 86-76 (81-81)
Arizona Diamondbacks 81-81 (86-76)
San Diego Padres 76-86 (70-92)

Colorado Rockies 64-98 (75-87)

I think someone commented on this prediction that the Giants wouldn’t win the West by 6 games. Instead they went and won it by 8. I wasn’t confident in the talent of this division outside of the Giants. Despite Lincecum’s well chronicled struggles, the Giants still have 2 of the best pitchers in the league in MadBum and Cain. The addition of the Cheater, Angel Pagan, and a full season of Posey was more than enough to improve the offense from last year and give this division easily to the Giants.

LA was a first half dynamo, yet somehow after all of their deadline deals and the post deadline monster trade they seemed to regress. Despite being in a division with the Giants, the Dodgers actually gave up the fewest runs in the division. I would’ve thought with the addition of HanRam and Adrian Gonzalez to a healed Matt Kemp in the second half would make that offense formidable. But while each player played ok, they weren’t enough and the Dodgers faded bad in September. This will be an intriguing team come next season.

Arizona was off the radar all season. Regression in the pitching staff and a horrible by his standards season from Justin Upton didn’t help. They did put up the offense expected in the desert but they just couldn’t find the consistency to push for the division or even a wild card. Turns out the predicted 86 wins wouldn’t have made the wild card anyway.

San Diego made some nice strides with young talent this year and now that the sale is complete San Diego may be in a position to compete going forward. The story was obviously the emergence of Chase Headley who posted an out of nowhere .286/.376/.498 line with 31 homers and 115 RBI. Chase turned 28 this year after losing much of his Age 27 season to injury and inconsistency. Another lesson in giving prospects a chance. Not every player can be Mike Trout.

Colorado gave up 890 runs. That’s 5.5 every game. In the National League. Not going to win much doing that and they certainly did not win much posting the 3^rd worse record in the league.

NL CENTRAL

Cincinnati Reds 97-65 (82-80)
St. Louis Cardinals 88-74 (83-79)
Milwaukee Brewers 83-79 (87-75)
Pittsburgh Pirates 79-83 (79-83)
Chicago Cubs 61-101 (71-91)
Houston Astros 55-107 (58-104)

Swap the Reds and Brewers and I nailed this division. So I didn’t give Latos enough credit, but what really did this was Johnny Cueto’s Cy Young winning season (yep he’s my pick) and the arrival of Aroldis Chapman. If you can get quality pitching in Cincinnati that powerful offense led by Votto (who was hurt), Bruce, and Phillips can give yout he support. They got the pitching this year and so it’s nto a surprise they won the Central handily. I just didn’t believe they’d get such great pitching.

Stupid Cardinals won’t die. Pujols leaves, Carpenter is lost and they keep on trucking. That’s how bad the National League is. If you put the Cardinals in the American League they’d get blown out. Beltran did do enough to help counteract the loss of Pujols and the rest of the offense held its end of the bargain finishing top 10 in Runs, BA, OBP, and SLG. I still think they have a very short future in this postseason and expect regression next season.

The Brewers turned it on way too late. Aramis Ramirez was plenty good in place of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun was maybe even better than last season. With Greinke and Gallardo in the fold there was no reason these guys should have been so bad as to have to sell Greinke. Even 5 of their 6 primary starters stayed under 4.00 era but they just couldn’t do it. I still can’t figure it out.

The Pirates need more seasoning…again. Two seasons in a row they’ve collapsed in the second half. Andrew McCutchen is everything he’s ever going to be and Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker and Garrett Jones all held up their end of the bargain too. The pitching staff just melted away there in the second half and the offense couldn’t keep hot. Pittsburgh will have it’s first winning season in 20 years next year.

Cubs and Astros suck. Cubs will be rebuilding for years and the Astros should be contracted. Whatever, welcome to the AL West, Houston. We’ll make you feel right at home.

NL EAST

Washington Nationals 98-64 (95-67)
Atlanta Braves 94-68 (85-75)
Philadelphia Phillies 81-81 (90-72)
NY Mets 74-88 (75-87)

Miami Marlins 69-93 (77-85)

Freakin’ nailed it. Strasburg is an otherworldly talent that now has performance enhancing surgery behind him. The totally expected and predicted seasons of Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez made this easily the most formidable team in NL. They already had the bats once Michael Morse got off the DL and Jayson Werth had a bounceback campaign. What I don’t understand is why this wasn’t more predictable in the first place. All the pieces were there, and the opportunity was there as well with the Phillies sitting in neutral while they waited for Utley and Howard to comeback. These guys are my pride and joy of my predictions and if something befalls my beloved Rangers in the postseason, I’m riding the Nationals!

Atlanta’s young guns did it. I questioned whether they would be able to, and Heyward and Medlen and Venters and Kimbrel and Freeman all stepped up. Even the old guy Chipper stepped up. This is a dangerous team and it was nice to see them bounce back after an epic collapse last year at the end.

Philadelphia regressed faster than expected. Maybe I should’ve seen it coming, but they did still have players like Rollins and Victorino and Pence in their lineups while they waited. I thought they would start slow but not this slow. I’ll be curious to see what this team does going forward. Halladay and Lee aren’t getting any younger and the Four Horseman went to the Big Three that may just end up being lonely one in Hamels soon. Tough transition time for the Phillies after a great half decade run.

I didn’t factor Dickey in as a 50 game winner when I gave the Mets 75 wins and they still couldn’t get there. The Mets just suck. Johan Santana was a nice story for 1/3 of the year until his 134 pitch no-hitter on June 1. After that he made only 10 more starts with only 3 of them even being quality. What got me more I guess was I overestimated their offense. It’s pretty much a no name offense. I’ll have to keep that in mind for next year.

If I was a Marlins fan I’d want a divorce. New stadium, new manager, new pitcher, and new All-Star position players and they can’t win 70. Granted I didn’t think thye would be any good, since when are Jose Reyes and Mark Buerhle difference makers in a tough division? Giancarlo Stanton is a nice player, but HanRam wasn’t doing anything for this team and the rest of the offense played a pop-gun style with the highest home run total behind Stanton was Ramirez’ 14. Get this team some real bats with some power.

All in all I think I did fairly well in my predictions. I’ll certainly put them up against any “expert” who gets paid to do this shit and I didn’t need any crazy sabermetric predictive models to do it either. Sometimes all of that gets in the way of common-sense and observation. I like sabermetrics, but this column was certainly one for the old-timers.

SUPERCONTEST RECAP AND PICKS

Before I get started I could’ve won some serious money for a lot of people last week. In addition to these five picks which I nailed, I gave out 6 of my best college football picks to a friend in Vegas (that he failed to bet) and nailed all 6 of those. Will I ever see a weekend like that again? One can only hope. On to the recaps:

Patriots (-4) @ Bills

This pick was looking dicey for awhile until Tom Brady and Co. went into eff-you mode and just started slinging it  including a fantasy game changing (for me at least) garbage time 25 yard TD to Brandon Lloyd when they were already up 14 with 4 minutes to go. It’s clear neither of these teams have good defenses, but at least the Patriots showed resiliency once the offense started to charge back and made a series of stops in the second half. Against any team with a half-competent offense it may be difficult for the Patriots to cover higher spreads like 6+ until the back-end of that defense gets it together.

49ers (-4) @ Jets

Crushed. Until further notice, I will not expect the 49ers to lose to teams with minimal talent on offense. It was clear from Minnesota’s first two games that they can at least move the ball, but coming into this game Sanchez couldn‘t complete 50% of his passes.   Add in a scheme ruining injury to Revis, the fact that Harbaugh is certainly a top 5 NFL coach, that the 49ers had an inspiring week of practice in Youngstown and the blowout shutout was fairly predictable.

Giants (+2.5) @ Eagles

This got close towards the end. The Eagles offense is miserable, I’m shocked they were able to win this game. They have to be the shakiest 3-1 team in all the NFL. If they can’t get McCoy going, this team could put together a significant losing streak.  Meanwhile the Giants couldn’t seem to get much going either, but that was to be expected against Philly’s stout defense. Really if you have two even teams who know each other better than anyone, taking the points seems to always be a good bet.

Vikings (+6.5) @ Lions

Didn’t quite win this one how I planned, but one thing is for certain, I hate the Lions offense. I still have no idea how they came back last week, but this offense is just not clicking nearly on the same level as the Jets. Teams shouldn’t be able to roll double coverage or zones to one player every play without paying the price somewhere else but that’s what’s happening with Megatron and Detroit’s offense. Meanwhile, Minnesota was a big let down on offense too, being unable to channel its efficiency from the last 3 weeks and failing to score a touchdown against the maligned Lions defense. It may be too early to call Minnesota a good team, but they certainly are a competitive team.

Bengals (-2.5) @ Jaguars

Glad I went with my gut here, Cincinnati’s offense is decent enough to cover this spread even with a bad defense. Jacksonville still lacks a lot of offensive firepower and I wouldn’t call their defense dominant either. Still, this game shouldn’t sucker people into thinking Cincinnati is somehow great and Jacksonville terrible, I can still see Jacksonville being competitively bad in a lot of games.

WEEK 5 PICKS

Falcons (-3) @ Redskins

So I didn’t hype up the -7 line against Carolina at home last week for a couple of reasons. One, Carolina was not that bad as they showed on Thursday night. That game is just an anomaly. One team seems to come into it completely unprepared (see: Cardinals, Arizona). The other thing is I’m not sold on the Falcons defense being that great. Combine those two factors plus it being a division game and that’s why I stayed away. This line seems ridiculously reactionary to both RGIII’s heroics and the Falcons nearly taking a shit at home against Carolina. But the Redskins secondary is so bad that I just can’t help picturing Atlanta going up and down the field on them all game. Even if RGIII can keep pace, I think Atlanta can cover the 3 in a shootout. With me avoiding the Thursday game and 4 teams on bye, this seems as much of a lock as any pick can be this week.

Texans (-8) @ Jets

I don’t usually like these lines, more than a touchdown on Monday Night Football on the road. But the Jets simply have the most inept offense right now and the Texans defense is every bit as capable as the 49ers defense of pitching the shutout here. With the exception of Peyton Manning, this defense has just taken charge and run through everyone. I’m surprised this line isn’t higher. The Jets run defense is secretly not good and without Revis the pass defense is all screwed up. This game just smacks of 20-3. Besides as a friend told me, “I’m riding the Texans until they lose”. This seems like a good week to do it.

Ravens (-5) @ Chiefs

Arrowhead…blah blah blah…7 pt victory over the Browns blah blah blah…Look I clearly made a mistake on the Chiefs calling them division winners. That defense has been a total failure and the only team they’ve beaten is the hexed Saints. It’s nice Jamaal Charles is back and I know Baltimore  has also had a sneaky bad run defense but still the Chargers went into Kansas City and won by 17. The Ravens had ten days to prepare and I think they do this. You just worry about another, pull out just enough to win game like they had against Cleveland but it’s tough to factor that into play.

Packers (-7) @ Colts

I don’t really like this line but when 6 teams are out of consideration you have to start picking some tough lines. The Packers just simply haven’t looked great for 3 out of 4 weeks and the one week they looked great was skewed by it being a Thursday game. Even when people said well just wait for the Saints since they’ve played 3 good defenses, they didn’t look great. But I think we are getting a speed offense on turf against a team that hasn’t seen an offense of this caliber yet. While it also feels like bad karma to take advantage of a situation like this, Chuck Pagano, head coach of the Colts is out with leukemia. That’s not something that a team rebounds from quickly. I know they had the bye week but I just get the feeling the Colts might be seriously flat this game.

Chargers (+3.5) @ Saints

This is stupid. The Saints just can’t stop anyone when it counts. It’s not like I like the Chargers, but I am out on the Saints giving points until they can show they can win. After all they couldnt hold an 18 point lead against the Chiefs for crying out loud.

BONUS

Eagles (+3.5) @ Steelers

I hate the Steelers. I just don’t think they are any good. Of course I don’t trust the Eagles but they were just competent enough to beat the Giants which is a better team than both these teams. When I hate two teams, it’s never a bad option to take the points. I just happened to like the Chargers against the Saints while also getting the same points.

Last week: 5-0, Season: 10-5 (11-6 with bonus