And that's where I think the problem lies in what Kiper does. He has incomplete information and considers more irrelevant things over relevant things on a number of occasions. Lastly, I think he fails to check himself on what the draft is really about: getting the best talent on your team. And talent often exceeds things like failed drug tests, short arms for a LT, a 4.6 40 for a WR, a 6'0" quarterback. It's easy to take risks on these things if they have talent, because they will find a way. If they don't then so what, there is 6 more rounds to this draft and another draft in one short year. For a variety of reasons sure thing first rounders flame out all the time and GMs understand this better than Kiper. You can't possibly hit home runs every time in the first round, so why not just do the sensible thing and get the most talent you can. I loved Gruden's comment on Mathieu for that very reason. He understands the process. If he flames out, then so what, hes just one of hundreds of draft picks that will flame out. But he has the talent to be an actual game changer, not just another cog in the machine, and that kind of talent is rare in the draft.
A couple more things before I get to my own analysis. I never watch the combine unlike my good friend fellow blogger Mr. Armchair. He uses it for his mock draft which you'll find here. I feel like the combine is some goofy thing started out as a well conceived idea but is now done just for the sake of itself. Gruden kind of alluded to it a little bit when they were talking about Chance Warmack and his 40 yard dash. What the hell is the point of a 40 yard dash for a guard? Actually that takes me to the 40 yard dash in general, with the exception of defensive backs, wide receivers, and running backs, it's totally meaningless and even for those players its not really that important. Why are we clocking 40 yard dashes for middle linebackers who spend more time moving laterally than vertically? Or even speed pass rushers who run 15 yards at most at a time. The 40 yard dash is completely ridiculous except for those specialty players that would actually use it. It's more like a game now than any kind of measurable skill for football players. Same goes for generally everything else. The bench press cracks me up too. The next time someone's ability to bench press 225 pounds 21 straight times projects them to be a great football player will probably be the first time. The Cowboys drafted a "strong" lineman with their first round pick, who also apparently cant move that well. Being a lineman is as much about technique and IQ than it is about brute strength.
Which takes me to my last point. Why is it so hard to grade these players solely on their body of work instead? Besides the interviews, which I think can be important if used right to determine whether the kid is a football player and not just an athlete and not as a means to ferret out homosexuals I think the combine just muddles the picture. The video shows what these kids can do in a football setting, not in a gym setting. I loved Russell Wilson in college. If I got a good NC State line I'd bet on them almost all the time solely because of the kid's talent. The same was true of Drew Brees. These kid were just plain good on mediocre teams in big time conferences. But they were short, so they didn't go in the 1st round, because somehow their ability to throw over bigger linemen in college wouldn't translate to the pros. Meanwhile Drew Brees, even before getting in the video game offense of Sean Payton, was a very good QB for the Chargers and Russell Wilson only took the Seahawks to the playoffs in his rookie season getting better and better as the season went on showing his innate talent and ability to learn and be a football player.
With all of these things in mind I make my draft grades based not entirely on what I think the player will do in his career since that's simply impossible to judge unless his name is Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck, but also on the process the team made, who they passed up, my perceived needs for the team, and whether Jerry Jones was involved in the process.
Pick 1 - Kansas City Chiefs - Eric Fisher OT, Central Michigan Grade: C
That's a telltale sign this draft class lacked any franchise players. I didn't even know who this guy was before the draft season. Like the Jets, the Chiefs are trying to stem some attrition here with Branden Albert leaving. Basically you replace a good not great NFL left tackle with a prospect that projects to be a good not great left tackle. Sweet you're really going places with this first overall pick. It fills a need on the line and he is supposedly one of the best prospects this year so I guess that's fine, but they better spend the draft pick they are getting for Albert on something good as well as the dollars they are trying to save by not signing Albert.
Pick 2 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Luke Joeckel OT, Texas A&M Grade: B
Its hard to complain about this pick even though the Jaguars had the second worst defense in the AFC because they also had the second worst offense in the AFC. There's no QB to take here and they didn't pull the trigger on any number of serviceable QBs to plug the hole this season until the 2014 draft so I guess you set yourself up down the road with a good lineman. I still think they should have gone defense here.
Pick 3 - Miami Dolphins (from Oakland Raiders)- Dion Jordan OLB, Oregon Grade: F
Ok so there were two funny things that happened around this time. The first was after the Dolphins completed the trade every analyst on TV was high fiving each other over calling the fact that Miami was going to move up to take Lane Johnson about 20 seconds before Miami took Dion Jordan. That was awesome. As always, these fools get paid money to be as right about sports as I am who does it for free. Why it was especially funny was that the Dolphins are inches from acquiring Brendan Albert for the next half decade to play left tackle. They may have tabled the deal but it's done. Good job talking heads.
Part 2 of the funny episode was Miami actually taking Dion Jordan with the 3rd pick. I think this officially signals the jumping of the shark moment of the "you must have pass rushers" mentality on defense. Whoever said it on ESPN was right (and I think it was Gruden, of course), Oregon plays hockey lines on defense. Its the strategy you use when you have mediocre talent on defense. Why play one guy the whole game who will play 90% speed to pace himself, when you have 2 guys of equal caliber who will go 110% because they only play 40-50% of the defensive snaps. If Dion Jordan was actually any good and not just a workout warrior (4.6 40) he would've been on the field more for the oft-challenged Oregon defense. Anytime you can get the equivalent of a good middle reliever in baseball with the 3rd overall pick you just have to do it. If you can give up your mid 2nd rounder to in the process even better. Way to go Miami.
Pick 4 - Philadelphia Eagles - Lane Johnson OT, Oklahoma Grade: B+
I like this pick. I think he is a great fit here and the only thing holding me back from an A was the fact that the defense is horrible on this team and well Lane Johnson doesn't tackle or cover anyone. But if you have Vick back there for another go around you might as well let him stand upright as long as possible since he is still talented and the Eagles went to total shit when the O-line fell apart from injuries. Prior to that they were only partial shit thanks tot he defense. Seems to be where they find themselves now pending these next few rounds.
Pick 5 - Detroit Lions - Ezekiel Ansah DE/OLB, BYU Grade: D
Look this pick may pan out 3 years down the road, and I will be honest I was impressed by his sheer athleticism and domination in some games last year, but the dude is clearly raw and unlike someone like Aldon Smith who had the privilege of joining a great defense with players like Patrick Willis and Justin Smith, Ezekiel Ansah is supported by a couple of bad news bear DTs and thats about it. He may make waves year 1, but I doubt it, and with Jim Schwartz on the hot seat, this is a project player that may fall by wayside when his coach leaves. I just think there were more polished defensive players that could better help the Lions in that spot.
Pick 6 - Cleveland Browns - Barkevious Mingo DE, LSU Grade: B-
Speak of the devil, a more polished destructive defensive force than Ansah went exactly one pick later. This grade isn't for the player, I watch a lot of SEC football and I like Mingo. I think he has a good future in the NFL. I just really wished the Browns took Tavon Austin. That was the player they needed to really spark some interest in this new regime in Cleveland. Tavon Austin strikes me as one of the very few game changers in this draft. No one would even have made Geno Smith a possible 1st rounder if he didn't have Tavon Austin who took so many short passes for hug gains. The Browns did fine here, but I think this was the case where they could've hit a home run and given the Browns fans a second explosive playmaker along side Richardson. At the very least they would've sold more jerseys.
Pick 7 - Arizona Cardinals - Jonathan Cooper OG, North Carolina Grade: A
This was the right pick for the right team at the right time. Cooper grades as probably one of the safest linemen in the draft along with Lane Johnson and even though guards are supposedly less valuable in the draft, take it from a fan of team that had zero interior line play they are just as important. If the Cowboys traded up this was the player I hoped they got. Things are looking up in Arizona.
Pick 8 - St. Louis (from Buffalo Bills) - Tavon Austin WR, West Virginia Grade: A-
Gotta get your guy. Maybe the grade should be an A, because this was the case of a perfect fit. That Rams defense has come to life under Jeff Fisher and with Amendola gone they needed his replacement bad. Amendola is a fine if fragile player, but Austin is a real talent. I wouldn't go so far as to compare him to Percy Harvin yet, and maybe that's why I give it an A-. What makes Harvin so great is how surprisingly strong he is for his size. He takes square hits and keeps going. Austin never really takes square hits. I just wonder how well his elusiveness will translate from the Big East/Big 12 to the NFL. But that's nitpicking I like this pick a lot.
Pick 9 - New York Jets - Dee Milliner CB, Alabama Grade: D
Basically the Jets are making up for self-imposed attrition when they dumped Revis. They are no better for this pick. Of course they did get #13 so we'll explore that further, but really CB wasn't a problem with Revis out. Cromartie had one of his best seasons ever and the Jets needed so many other things. Also, I don't think that highly of Milliner. Kiper was right to point out his lack of ball skills although his phrase "miss an interception on first down, touchdown on second down" is downright retarded. In fact the highlights ESPN showed of Milliner after he was picked highlighted his lack of ball skills. He is a good cover corner I guess, but I was never that impressed by him.
Pick 10 - Tennessee Titans - Chance Warmack OG, Alabama Grade: A
Having been an owner of Chris Johnson I could tell you O-Linemen and especially run blocking O-linemen were heavily needed by the Titans. I love this pick. I saw some mocks that had Warmack in the 20s for whatever reason. He wasn't getting by Dallas at 18. This fool is a mauler and already combo blocks liek a man. Youll never hear about him in the NFL unless he makes the Pro Bowl but for O-linemen that's the way it should be if you're good.
Pick 11 - San Diego Chargers - D.J. Fluker OT, Alabama Grade: A
Here's what I wrote to my Charger fan friends on facebook: How you can tell AJ Smith is no longer in charge of the Chargers: They didn't select an OLB with their first round pick.
The new regime in San Diego got off to a solid start with this pick. They didn't get fancy or cute. They took the best available player at the highest position of need. Good work.
Pick 12 - Oakland Raiders - D.J. Hayden CB, Houston Grade: C
I'll be honest I don't know much about the kid other than he miraculously survived some weird heart injury. What I do know is this wasn't a super strong CB class, certainly not enough to take the 2nd one at 12. I would've liked to see some defensive front seven help. I gave them a C because at least they traded out of 3 and got another 2nd rounder out of the deal. But it just still seems to me that the Raiders have a unique way of going about the draft that just has not worked out the past decade.
Pick 13 - New York Jets (from Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - Sheldon Richardson DT, Missouri Grade: F
Not an indictment of Sheldon Richardson whom I know very little about. This is mostly what you traded Darrelle Revis for. There is no DT in the game today that impacts a game like Revis. Obtaining this pick to take Richardson was horrible. Rob Ryan we'll see you on ESPN in 2014.
Pick 14 - Carolina Panthers - Star Lotululei DT, Utah Grade: C
Well the Panthers certainly did pick on the right side of the ball, but I feel like they could've made a bigger impact with a different player. They are stuck in a conference with Drew Brees and Matt Ryan for at least the next few years and the Panthers have a garbage secondary. Not a terrible pick and they probably tried but I would've like them to trade out of this spot.
Pick 15 - New Orleans - Kenny Vaccaro S, Texas Grade: C
Personal philosophy here: There are three positions you shouldnt take in the first round: Kicker, Punter, and Safety. I feel like besides DT, safety is the least technical position on the field. Every safety drafted high in the last 5 years should send 10% of their paycheck to Troy Polamalu who revolutionized the playmaking safety. But really besides him and Ed Reed you're hard pressed to even name another good safety in the league. I can at least name three DTs immediately offhand: Suh, Ngata, Wilfork. New Orleans had so many holes and there were players at this point better suited than Vaccaro to help immediately.
Pick 16 - Buffalo Bills - E.J. Manuel QB, Florida State Grade: B-
I don't hate this pick as much as some especially given that they could've either taken him 8th or traded down got an extra second rounder and still got Manuel at 16th. That was excellent. The problem is when you take a QB in the 1st round it puts so much pressure on him and the organization to make it work and when you dont have as high of a pedigree as say Andrew Luck or Matt Ryan the odds of failure are so high. I feel like Buffalo could've traded down to 16 taken any other player and still got Manuel at 41. AT thatpoint he becomes a "QB in waiting" not an immediate franchise QB. Do I think Manuel can have a career in the NFL? Sure. Do I think he's Buffalo's franchise QB? No, but at least Buffalo got more than just Manuel with their first round pick.
Pick 17 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Jarvis Jones OLB, Georgia Grade: A+
Unbelievable. This is why the combine (or in Jones' case, pro day) is stupid. If you watched just a handful of Jarvis Jones games this year you saw a sure fire NFL talent. Then he has a bad 40 time and now he falls. Tell me the next time Jarvis Jones' 40 yard dash helps him sack a QB. He had 28 sacks the last two years in the SEC. He is a football player and I thought that's what we are drafting in this exhibition. Here is a list of teams above I think would've done better to draft Jones than whoever they drafted: Dolphins, Eagles, Lions, Jets, Jets again, Raiders, Panthers, Saints. Jarvis Jones was a top 5-10 pick for sure until that 40 time came out which is ridiculous. Now he gets to learn from one of the professional defensive units in the NFL and as usual the Steelers somehow get their player. I'll bet the second Jones slid past the Raiders, Jets, Panthers, and Saints, everyone in Pittsburgh's war room was popping champagne bottles.
Pick 18 - San Francisco (from Dallas Cowboys) - Eric Reid S, LSU Grade: B+
San Francisco has a million picks and very few needs so trading up made sense. Given that they only gave up some 70 something pick to move up 13 spots in the 1st round is why they get a B+. I actually don't like the pick that much. First, he's a safety. Second, he's more of a SS which a team like San Francisco really doesn't require. Third, he got burned a bit in pass coverage at LSU which was his predecessor Deshon Goldson's specialty last year. I agree with Mr. Armchair, I think shoring up the pass rush was the way to go with this luxury pick. Justin Smith is not young and when he went down the pass rush stopped.
Pick 19 - New York Giants - Justin Pugh OT/OG, Syracuse Grade: A-
This was kind of a weird spot for the Giants to be in with who was off the board, and I liked the pick. This also made me laugh because Gruden loved the pick but Kiper had to say he has short arms for LT like 3 times. Who fucking cares? For one thing, I'm sure the Giants were not picking their franchise LT with this pick. Their O-line was thin and older and they needed a lineman that had some versatility. For another thing, since when does long arms translate to success? I'd rather a lineman have T-rex arms and a great base and foot work, than be Stretch Armstrong and get abused by multiple rush techniques. Kiper just doesn't get it sometimes. Why the A- then? With Osi gone, I thought this was a great spot for Bjoern Werner. He's a good talent and might need some work but Tuck and JPP could make him great. Too bad for Werner.
Pick 20 - Chicago Bears - Kyle Long OG, Oregon Grade: D
Another Oregon prospect who has little experience at his position compared to his peers. The Bears were in need of something a little more polished than Long. While Gruden and Kiper were talking about his inexperience and weaknesses, the ESPN highlights showed me a guy who did look lost and out of place at his position. I don't want to predict busts because it's too hard, but if I did, he would certainly make the Round 1 list.
Pick 21 - Cincinnati Bengals - Tyler Eifert TE, Notre Dame Grade: D
Ok, if you played fantasy football the last three years, as part of your draft prep you probably looked at Jermaine Gresham and thought, hey here is a talented guy I can get on the cheap at TE. And then you get him and he's just kinda average and you either platoon him or drop him outright. You know why? It's not his talent, it's his usage pattern. Look up some 2012 fantasy outlooks on Jermaine Gresham's usage pattern and why he's not a 900/8 TE for your fantasy team and you'll understand what I mean. Given that little nugget of information why am I now supposed to get excited about Cincinnati having two great pass catching TEs? This seems like a terrible fit for the Bengals and probably would've been better off reaching for Cordarrelle Patterson or Justin Hunter instead.
Pick 22 - Atlanta Falcons (From St. Louis through Washington) - Desmond Trufant CB, Washington Grade: C-
I think this pick works out for Atlanta as I think with the right coaching Trufant could be as good as his brother. They have the same set of skills. Why I dump on this pick? Atlanta has a need for picks at this point and was Desmond Trufant really getting picked before 30? Now they are without their third and sixth this year on the heels of losing their 2012 first and fourth from that Julio Jones trade.
Pick 23 - Minnesota Vikings - Sharrif Floyd DT, Florida Grade: A
Ok, so I'm glad we finally got to him. I probably watched more total Florida games than most of these mock draft experts and I couldn't figure out why Floyd was a top 3 pick. Floyd is a good player and he was a disruptive force a good defense, but this is not a game changing player in my opinion. He a good piece of a good line. I think he got picked exactly where he should've gone and he'll help out Minnesota on the interior of that line. But if someone took him top 3, then they wasted their pick.
Pick 24 - Indianapolis Colts - Bjoern Werner DE, Florida State Grade: B+
I like Werner and think he has a good future ahead of him, but I was hoping that a player like him went to a more veteran and talented D-Line than this one like San Francisco or New York. I have confidence that Werner will work hard and really try to improve but he is fairly raw. That said, Indy could've done worse with this pick. Eddie Lacy would've been an intriguing pick here too.
Pick 25 - Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle Seahawks) - Xavier Rhodes CB, Florida State Grade: D
Yeah Rhodes will be a fine player too I think, but you just traded one of the most dynamic all purpose players in the league in his prime for Rhodes. Whether Harvin was having migraines or causing them with the coaching staff he is worth way more than this pick. As New York learned this was not a draft you wanted to stockpile picks in.
Pick 26 - Green Bay Packers - Datone Jones DE, UCLA, Grade: B
Jones is a good player and I think has a good ceiling, better than that of say Tank Carradine who is still on the board. A lot of people wanted Eddie Lacy here but I think Green Bay did a good job addressing the more pressing need than the sexy pick. Green Bay hasn't fallen flat in the playoffs the last two years because of their offense. It's been their defense.
Pick 27 - Houston Texans - DeAndre Hopkins WR, Clemson, Grade: A
I love this pick. I didn't think Hopkins was getting his due and compared to Patterson or Hunter I think he is way more polished. It's a better fit on a Houston team that's window is now, not 3 years from now and this was clearly the most pressing need for this team.
Pick 28 - Denver Broncos - Sylvester Williams DT, North Carolina, Grade: A
This was a plug and play pick that is at just the right spot for the Broncos at 28. They had to have a starter on defense that could help shore up their D-line. Even with Dumervil gone, the Broncos pass rush will be fine and DT was one of the more pressing needs. A solid pick from a franchise that usually does the right things in the draft.
Pick 29 - Minnesota Vikings (from New England Patriots) - Cordarrelle Patterson WR, Tennessee Grade: F
Sold the farm in mid round picks for this guy. I hope he's worth 2 or 3 prospective starters 3 years from now, because he sure isn't worth anything now. I hated this move. If you want to take a project or an unsure thing at WR why not just hold your picks and get Keenan Allen or Robert Woods. Despite some flaws they were both way mroe productive in college than this guy was.
Pick 30 - St. Louis Rams (from Atlanta Falcons) - Alec Ogletree ILB, Georgia Grade: B
This is a good player with a very checkered past. He also forms one of the bonuses the Rams ended up with for trading out of #2 last year. I think I would've liked the Rams to maybe even double down at WR on this pick. It's not like they have any real talent there, even though they did spend an early second rounder on Brian Quick and their early first rounder this year on Austin. But all in all a solid pick assuming his talent shines through his issues.
Pick 31 - Dallas Cowboys (from San Francisco 49ers) - Travis Frederick C, Wisconsin Grade: F
It's hard for me to grade a team bad for trading back when they had no obvious pick at their former spot. When Jarvis Jones went off I wanted Dallas to trade back. And they did! Getting almost no compensation for dropping 13 spots in the first round. Ok fine, maybe the mid 3rd rounder will be a good safety or guard or something. But then to drop this steaming pile on me in the first round is ridiculous. Even the kid himself says he's probably not a first round pick. What the hell? Even against my own personal policy I would've rather had Matt Elam at safety in the 31st pick than this huge dude who can't move, which by the way is a bad trait for a center who often has to go second level. Sigh. Hopefully we are all wrong but given Jerry Jones' talent evaluation lately we probably aren't.
Pick 32 - Baltimore Ravens - Matt Elam S, Florida Grade: A-
Yeah yeah it's a safety in the first round but its the last pick of the first round and huge need for Baltimore. Plus Matt Elam is really good, better than Vaccaro I would say. It was a solid pick I wished the Cowboys made one pick earlier.
A brief word on Geno Smith and Manti Te'o:
Geno Smith was never a first round QB. That guy is a system QB (credit: Dana Holgorsen) from a system that hasn't exactly produced good pro QBs yet (see: Case Keenum and Brandon Weedon). Why he ever accepted an invitation to the draft is beyond me, he had to know he wasn't getting selected in the first round after all the QB movement this offseason.
Manti smartly declined for more than publicity reasons. He knew he was falling out of the first round and rightly so. Reason #325 why you can't take Kiper that seriously is he had Manti at like #17 on his board. First he plays MLB, a position of increasing unimportance in the NFL. Case in point was Ogletree, taken at #30 as the only ILB taken in the first round. Then there is the performance issues. He got straight up abused by a junior NFL team. That had to raise serious questions about his abilities to actually play at the NFL level. Lastly is that whole hoax thing. Even though it has mostly blown over, it wont ever blow over and he seems to be genuinely shaken by it. Do you want to invest a first rounder in a emotional kid who is going to hear nothing but taunts about that for the rest of his NFL career from both fans and players. I'll bet whoever gets him, most players on that team wont even want him. He's not as talented as people think and now he's damaged goods.
It's good to be back! Enjoy the rest of the draft and making fun of my 'Boys. I certainly will.
