Zebras Gone Wild

Ed. Note: This column except for the picks was written on Tuesday morning. Go figure the NFL would render it sort of moot by Thursday. Anyhow it's a blog and I still wanted to express my thoughts on it. 

Anyone who knows me well enough knows I will never blame a win or loss on a ref. Too many other plays have happened in the game for us to squarely blame the referees for blowing a crucial call. Referees blow calls all the time that help direct the outcome of a game, but the players still need to perform. While the replacement referees are really doing their best to change my philosophy, I'll still stick by my beliefs that a referee can never "give a game" to a team. To illustrate how staunch that belief is, I still refuse to place sole blame on the referees for Dallas losing the NBA Finals to Miami when Dwyane Wade was seemingly sent to the free throw line every time down the floor in the pivotal 5. The reality is Dallas had a chance to shut that series down in Games 3 and 6 and failed to execute. That's generally the issue, if you put yourself in a position to be "jobbed" by a referee it's because you failed to execute somewhere down the line. Take last night's game for example. A referee didn't allow Aaron Rodgers to be sacked 8(!) times. At any point, the Packers offensive line could have stepped up and moved them in position for one more field goal and last night's blown call may not have mattered. Or how about actually playing proper safety deep coverage and not allowing Russell Wilson and Golden Tate to hook up for a 41 yard TD pass when at that point Wilson had 17 yards passing. That's the troubling part of this. What should be a top story, the fact that Green Bay's offensive line is so bad that one of the elite quarterbacks may not survive the season for all the hits, is swept under the rug by the calls in this game. Packers fans need to worry more about that offensive line than any calls the refs made in that game.

That being said I think the worst aspect of these refs is not the terrible calls. After all the professionals make terrible "game-altering" calls all the time: The Tuck Rule game, Ed Hochuli's "forward pass" call in the Broncos-Chargers game that led to him being ridiculed, nearly every big call in the the Steelers/Seahawks Super Bowl, the Music City Miracle "lateral" that beat Buffalo in its last playoff appearance, hell they've even gotten a coin toss wrong. Bringing back the professionals won't eliminate horrible calls. They will happen. For some reason these replacement refs have done enough to make everyone forget that horrible pass interference and turnover class are the norm in the NFL.  Even the hit of Darius Heyward-Bey that everyone says should've been flagged may not have been called. The regular refs have often not thrown flags on illegal hits that were later fined.

No the real reason the lockout needs to end is for the administration, confidence, and pacing of the game. I've heard some broadcasters making excuses that hey don't blame the replacement refs they are doing their best and are unqualified to do the job. Being intimidated and blowing judgment calls on pass interference are one thing. Simply not knowing the rules is another. Allowing Harbaugh two, not one, but two challenges after he was out of timeouts is unacceptable. Being unable to mark off the correct yardage for an unsportsmanlike penalty is unacceptable. Allowing scrums EVERY...SINGLE...TIME after plays without flags is unacceptable. Taking 10 minutes to figure out where to mark the ball because you are simply unsure of the penalty rules is unacceptable. The Falcons-Broncos MNF game last week was nearly unwatchable for these reasons. Not because of any particularly bad call but because of the administration of the game. That's what's missing here and blame rests squarely on the replacement ref's shoulders. This is a golden opportunity for the refs to boost their reffing career. They obviously enjoy it as they are willing to subject themselves to the ridicule and intimidation every week. Why not take it seriously and learn the rule book? As I posted on Facebook last night 12 year old veteran Madden players have a better grasp of the rule book than these guys. They have now had 7 weeks of on the job training (4 preseason and 3 regular season) and they still can't get the rules right? That's the real travesty here and that's what is making the NFL borderline unwatchable right now.

Of course, the NFL and its hubris are also blameable, but they may be operating just as any other super powerful entertainment brand would in this situation. NHL is in a lockout, NBA is still weeks away from regular season games, 18 of the 30 teams in MLB are ostensibly eliminated from playoff contention, golf, nascar, and tennis seasons are all either over or winding down. What else are casual sports fans going to watch on Thursdays, Sundays, and Mondays? Estimates range anywhere from 27-36 million people play fantasy football. They aren't gong to stop watching. No amount of bitching is going to alter this situation when the NFL continues to have bottom line leverage over the officials. The statement is we don't give a crap if the sport is a circus, people watch and pay money anyway. And oh by the way, this is taking attention away from other issues Goodell doesn't want to talk about: concussions and Bountygate.

Basically as fans we have two choices as always. 1) Deal with it. 2) Stop watching. We love our teams and the diversions that football provides in terms gambling and fantasy sports too much to stop watching. So fans: deal with it. The lockout will resolve eventually and then at least football games may go back to being 3 hours, 15 minutes long instead of 3 hours and 30 minutes because these replacements waste 15 minutes administering the game. In the meantime stop complaining about horrible calls, they will still be ever present when the pros return.

Moving on to the gambling, I think after a few weeks we have really started to learn tendencies about teams and tendencies with how this season has been going. A key I have found with the lines is to be quick to change your bias. This was ever present in two of my picks last week. I abandoned the Titans (and really the Lions should have covered) and jumped on the Cardinals. I think these were two early season changes in thinking that well help my frame of mind going forward as I try to get a perfect week. Let's examine last week's picks:

Giants @ Panthers (Even) – I'm adding this to my gambling manual. Avoid all Thursday games this year. They are simply too unpredictable on the short rest. There was absolutely no reason for the Panthers to throw down that stinkfest on both offense and defense at home on national TV other than they were simply unprepared. The problem is you can never tell which team will be unprepared. Week 1 it was these same Giants at home, Week 2 it was the unstoppable Bears, Week 3 it was the much-healthier Panthers at home. As much as I'm tempted to pound the Ravens here at home against Cleveland, it would not shock me to see them unprepared and unable to cover. Especially after Sunday night's barnburner against New England. 

Falcons (+3.5) @ Chargers – Yup. I was rewarded in my justification of this pick. Atlanta is too good to be giving 3.5 points to anyone and San Diego was grossly overrated. 

Eagles @ Cardinals (+4) – This one felt good. It just felt good to totally nail this pick. It's not a shocker that I won, I'm just happy with method I used to get there. Changing biases so early in the season is tough, but you just had to after the Cardinals defense made Tom Brady look bad at home. That was no fluke. Making Michael Vick with a new center and no Maclin look bad was taking candy from a baby.

Texans (-2.5) @ Broncos – Texans scared me a little towards the end, but this is just a solid team. Very good up and down, they have to be the AFC favorites over my initial Ravens pick based on the defenses. Baltimore's is not good Houston's is. I could easily see Houston winning a 31-20 AFC title game against Baltimore or New England and it wouldn't even be that close. I'm glad I got the cheap line in this game. 

Lions (-3.5) @ Titans – Can't believe the Lions blew this. They had the seven point lead, relegated Chris Johnson to decoy and just needed to contain Locker. They couldn't and gave up 21 straight points. The some how came back, but couldn't finish the job with a TD in overtime that would've covered. I'm pretty out on both these teams at this point. 

Bonus Game!

49ers (-7) @ Vikings – Guess I should've made this a trap game. 7 may be too many points to ever lay for the 49ers. I know they've covered that line twice already this season, but you aren't so much betting on the 49ers to be an overall great team like the Texans, but rather you are flipping the coin that the 49ers can get up by 7 or 10 early and pin their ears back. This is a team that thrives on leads and struggles when trailing. If a team gets up 7-0 on the 49ers early you can kiss any -7 bet good. Good to know going forward. Also, every Vikings game spread at this point better be within 3 points in either direction. They have been in every game and have won 2 of them. 

Week 4's Picks (As always in order of preference)

Patriots (-4) @ Bills

Why? The Patriots have slaughtered a bad team, and barely lost to what may be two of the top 8 teams in the league (really depends on Kolb's growth). Now they can't beat a Bills team by more than 4 coming off of back to back losses in which the Patriots will almost certainly enter Eff-You Mode. The Bills on the other  hand got smoked by the Jets and beat the Chiefs and Browns, two teams that certainly haven't started strong. I like the Patrioits resume here and I like even more that New England really needs to blow out a team to get the Boston fans/media off their back.

49ers (-4) @ Jets

This is more like it. Alex Smith throws up a clunker and now the 49ers are only laying 4 instead of what should probably be 7 again. The Jets are not good, in fact they may be the worst 2-1 team out there. Sanchez was below 50% for much of the game against the Dolphins. I can't wait to see what the 49ers defense does to him. After all he's no Christian Ponder. Also I'm sure this line stays low under the whole west coast team traveling for an early game on the east coast doctrine, but I read somewhere Harbaugh is actually good in these games. He'll get the charges ready to go for this one. 

Giants (+2.5) @ Eagles

Why am I supposed to like the Eagles here? They continue to be a mess, Vick has turned into the Rex Grossman of 2012 with his incredible turnover rate. There is now 60 minutes of game film on how to beat the Eagles defense courtesy of Kevin Kolb. The Giants have gotten better every week this season and yet somehow they are given 2.5. Take the gift and run. Of course being a bitter NFC East game on national TV this has trap potential all over it. But I'll ignore it.

Vikings (+6.5) @ Lions

Everything everyone has watched form Minnesota has shown they can play with anyone so far this season. As I wrote above the Vikings games should only be 3 points either way until further notice. I think you get a free 3.5 points here. While it looks like Stafford may play the Lions have not been so dominant as to warrant this line. Barely beating St. Louis, getting drubbed for most of the game by San Francisco and getting down by as many as 2 tds in Tennessee. Detroit's defense is terrible and Minnesota's offense has been efficient. Grab me a shank of mutton and horn of ale for marauding Vikings!

Bengals (-2.5) @ Jaguars

There will be no bonus this week. This slate was tough and I have far less confidence in any other pick after those first four. Not too scientific about this other than Cincinnati's offense has been rolling the last two weeks and while their defense hasn't been good I don't know that Jacksonville's able to take too much advantage. As long as Cincy can contain MoJo I think they can win by a field goal.

Last week: 3-2 (3-3 with bonus), Season: 5-5 (6-6 with bonus)

Good luck to all you gamblers out there this week and hopefully we can all have a good time enjoying a better pace of play in the NFL with the pros back. 

Supercontest Week 3

So I didn’t perform terribad, but I wasn’t great last week. The rules of the Supercontest require me to submit all my picks before the Thursday game so that’s why this blog is up early. I think I’ll review last week’s picks before I jump into this slate. It may help me select better.

Ravens (+2.5) @ Eagles – So I won this one but not in the way imagined. The Ravens were obviously robbed by one of the worst calls in recent memory and certainly outplayed the Eagles. But who cares, I was right to trust in the Ravens getting points here and I won.  Ravens will be dangerous all weeks.

Chiefs (+3) @ Bills – Wow. Two teams have hung 35+ on the Chiefs, this time with defensive players back for Kansas City and the offense belonging to Buffalo.  I just don’t know what to think. Is Kansas City really that bad? Did I underestimate Buffalo at home? I have no idea only I guess it’s safe to trust neither team at this point.

Cardinals @ Patriots (-13.5) – So I figured out the trap. Arizona has a good defense. Certainly not elite, but good enough not to lose by 14 points. New England has O-line problems that may make it difficult to cover double digit spreads too. Nice to keep that handy.

Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Giants – Until the 4^th quarter the Bucs defense was solid. I won this one but not in the way imagined either. Tampa Bay may struggle to score this year. New York is going to score 20+ like every game.

Tennessee (+6) @ San Diego – Hahahaha. Tennessee is possibly the worst team in the league right now. Masked by the omnipresent criticism of Chris Johnson is the fact that the O-line sucks, Jake Locker is inaccurate and the defense is one of the worst in the league. I’m still not giving SD a pass especially since any team that gives up 3 TDs to Dante Rosario obviously sucks. San Diego clearly has not played anyone good yet based on Oakland and Tennessee’s current results.

This weeks picks!

Giants @ Panthers (Even) – Im taking the Panthers here. With the absence of a couple of skill position players, the Panthers may be able to tweak their defense enough to really slow down the Giants. Meanwhile Carolina is at home and New York simply doesn’t look poised to stop them.  New York travels on the short week and Carolina doesn’t. I just think Carolina has the edge and with an even spread that’s all I need.

Falcons (+3.5) @ Chargers – I simply don’t get this line. I don’t think the Monday night football turnover for Atlanta makes any difference here, and it is clear that San Diego has face neither an offense nor defense as good as Atlanta’s. I am all in on Atlanta and the fact I get points is a plus.

Eagles @ Cardinals (+4) – Sure Arizona can’t score that much, but I think I like my chances here with a home dog facing a team that just lost its starting center and turns the ball over more than anyone else. The starting center loss is a sneaky play here as the Eagles are already missing Jason Peters and center losses seem to cause chemistry issues on offense. I’ll bet the Eagles win this game, but not by more than 4. If Jeremy Maclin misses this game it’s a lock.

Texans (-2.5) @ Broncos – The Texans have flown under the radar early this season as they basically made no noise. They beat down handily two teams (Dolphins/Jaguars) they were supposed to. This is the first “test” for the Texans, but I think they are legit and one of the few solid all around teams in the league. Meanwhile Peyton, for really the first time in his career, is having to deal with constant performance questions based on his arm strength. I’m interested to see how he handles this, especially after the showing against Atlanta where he just looked confused for half the game. The Texans are the best defense he’ll see thus far (yes better than Pittsburgh’s) and he just wotn be able to come from behind for a 2^nd straight game.

Lions (-3.5) @ Titans – This barely made the list over the bonus game this week. I don’t love the Lions, but 

I did like their resolve against the 49ers last week in San Francisco on Sunday Night. The Titans simply have not been good on all sides of the ball. When that is the case you just feel fortunate this line is 3.5 and not like 6. Nothing scientific here, just that Tennessee simply doesn’t pass the smell test and the Lions can at least do one thing really good. The Titans can’t do anything mediocre.

Bonus Game!

49ers (-7) @ Vikings – I thought about making this a trap game but I didn’t have any good reasons why this was a trap other than the Metrodome roof collapsing. Sure the Vikes have AP, Harvin, and Ponder who looks like an ok QB (I thought he was a good choice after the draft), but the Vikes defense sucks and the 49ers defense has looked great. 7 is a lot, especially for a west coast team travelling for an early game, but the relative talent on the field and with the headsets are just grossly in the 49ers favor. I wasn’t confident enough to make it one of my picks but I think it’s a good bet.

It’s a trap!

Jets @ Dolphins (+3) – I don’t see how you can possibly bet on this game. Division game in Miami, Jets shellacked one team and then got shellacked by another. Ditto for the Dolphins. These are two mediocre teams that know each other well and anything can happen. Stay away, even from the Dolphins (+3), since you simply can’t rely on Tannehill. No dollars to this game.

Bengals @ Redskins (-3.5) – Simply can’t trust the Redskins here to lay the points missing two of their best defensive players. I’m sure the Bengals can’t stop Skins, the Skins may not be able to stop the Bengals. This has randomness written all over it even though the Redskins have surely looked like a competent team.

Packers (-3) @ Seahawks – I think this is pretty self-explanatory. Seattle, in primetime, at home. Earthquakes galore. Even though the Packers are certainly the better team, Vegas just sucks you into to only giving up 3 and next thing you know Rodgers and Co. can’t see muster more than 13 points for most of the game. I’m double down on the trap here with Seattle at home after last week.

Record: 2-3 in the Supercontest, 3-3 with the bonus.

Good luck to everyone as they wager their milk money this week!

Supercontest!

So I've been asked by some friends recently about spreads and bets in a variety of sports and I've been on a hot streak lately so I thought it was time to do my own Supercontest blog. Of course by doing this I doom myself to be terrible the rest of the football season but whatever, at least I don't have $1,500.00 on the line.
In case you don't know what the Hilton (now "The LVH" - sorry Hilton that doesn't hip Supercontest is go here: http://www.thelvh.com/supercontest

I meant to start this last week, but life gets in the way. Going forward I'll make sure to get these out, despite expecting my first born later this season. So the gist of this is, pick five games and choose one team based on the spread of the game. The interesting thing about this is the picks have to be in by 11am on Saturday, when we still dont know the status of all of our "game time decision" players. The LVH also sets the lines on Wednesday, when we know even less about the teams and the lines haven't been affected by bettor money. So pick your 5 favorite bets and lets get going!

Again, these are not the current lines as of today, but the ones in play for the LVH Supercontest in which I am pretending to be playing for a 440k payday. 

Ravens (+2.5) @ Eagles

I know I was in on the Eagles in my preseason picks, but I was also higher on the Ravens.  The Eagles almost let me down last week and almost make me want to change my division pick. I just don't know how Vick even stays upright this season if he is going to get hit like that against a no-named Browns front seven. What's Baltimore going to do to his this week? Meanwhile Baltimore was firing on all cylinders and looked every bit like the AFC favorite I think them to be. Philadephia is one of the least advantageous homefields (Eagles are 7-9 in the last two years v. 11-5 on the road) and Baltimore is one of the few legitimately dangerous teams on both sides of the ball.  Don't get me wrong I think Philly's defense is for real this year so this game should be close but I think Baltimore wins and in the process covers this spread.

Chiefs (+3) @ Bills

I firmly believe the Bills are as bad as they showed last week. They made some moves on defense in the offseason but they were still the worst scoring defense in the AFC last year. They just got shredded by Mark Sanchez. Mark Sanchez just shredded a team. It was the Bills. The Bills got shredded by Mark Sanchez. Just though I'd pound that in to anyone's head who sincerely thought the Bills were some kind of sleeper this year despite the fact they barely improved the worst defense last year and start Ryan "I...uh...broke my ribs, yeah that it's it!" Fitzpatrick. They gave up 48 points to the Jets. Just incredible.

Meanwhile the Chiefs also looked bad but were actually missing two very key defensive pieces against a team I though was actually good, the Falcons. The Chiefs boast at least two skill players (Charles and Bowe) better than any on the Jets and the Chiefs are just simply better than they looked last week. Hali and Flowers are back. Buffalo is awful. Goooooooo Chiefs!

Cardinals @ Patriots (-13.5)

This line has to have some kind of trap component to it. Kevin "deer in headlights" Kolb on the road against the AFC champs. West Coast team playing an early game on the east coast. Why isnt this line like 17? Do people really believe the Cards have a defense capable of stopping New England? Are the Cardinals really any better than the Titans? The Patriots handled the Titans by 20. I expect at least something similar here like 34-13 or 35-10 in this game and I think most of you are nodding your heads in agreement. Don't know what else to say except Kevin Kolb.

Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Giants

After those first three it gets hard for me to like any lines. So I'm going to spend the next two putting my money where my mouth is. I have Tampa as a playoff team and NYG not. So in that case why can't the Buccaneers stay within 7.5 even if they lose on the road? Add in the fact that the Buccaneers renewed defense shut down Cam Cam, the Giants also suck at home, the Buccaneers can run on teams, the Giants can be run on and lastly, Josh Freeman lost 30 pounds! Or something. Somehow thats a good thing, I think. Look I don't love this line, but I think based on Greg Schiano (candidate for this year's Harbaugh, where a good tough coach replaces a shitty coach) and the way these Bucs play, it's more likely they stay within this 7.5 than not.

Titans (+6) @ Chargers

I believe the Titans are better than they looked last week. Was it disappointing to see one of my AFC playoff teams get beat soundly at home on opening day? Yeah. But it's the Patriots. Knowing Belichick they've been game planning that game for 2 weeks. When Belichick gets 2 weeks he'll kill most other coaches. The Chargers barely beat a Raiders team hell-bent on giving them this game and only had one good offensive player. I know it was by 8, but still with all the long snapper issues and the way that game played out I just still absolutely do not trust San Diego. Besides, it's Norv Turner in September. This is totally a game everyone thinks they should win that they inexplicably lose because they are unprepared and Norv doesn't know what he's doing.

Bonus: So I'm not including it, but it was the one line I thought about over the Titans one.

Vikings @ Colts (+1)

I think, repeat think, the Colts will win this one. The Vikings are overrated and took overtime at home to beat what I think is a worse team than the Colts. The Colts started a rookie QB in the buzzsaw that is Soldier Field. The Vikings gave up Blaine Gabbert's best career game he'll ever have. If Luck can't duplicate then I'm out on Luck this year. What concerns me is that the Colts defense is one of those units that you just knew would be bad entering the season and was. Can Adrian Peterson single handedly win this game? It looks like it based on last week. I like Luck to come out in the home opener and win (the kid is no stranger to high pressure big games, I doubt he'll be phased by the jitters), but I was scared off enough by Adrian Peterson v. Indy Defense to back off this.

IT'S A TRAP!

Here a couple lines I think are total bettor traps for whatever reason. Im not telling you to be the underdog, just that the favorite lines represent traps that will suck bettors in that could destroy parlays.

Cowboys (-3) @ Seahawks

Based on Dallas walking into New York and throwing down a great performance and Seattle shitting the bed against the Cards, Vegas is urging you to parlay the Cowboys in every one of your parlays. Don't do it. Just like Seattle did last week, Dallas has kill all parlays potential this week. Seattle is easily the top homefield advantage in the league (Sorry, KC and Pittsburgh), just ask the New Orleans Saints how that earthquake caused by Marshawn Lynch and 70,000 Seattle fans felt. Seattle has a good defense and there are enough issues that cropped up in that Dallas/NYG game that I'm nervous about this game. The O-Line still looks shaky and Dallas still continues to commit way too many drive killing penalties. They almost did it last week when Witten held on the 3rd and 2 to ice the game and Romo had to bail them out with the best slant throw any NFL QB can make. Just stay away.

Broncos @ Falcons (-3)

Atlanta looked dominant on offense and walked into KC and threw down 40. Now they are home they have to be a shoe in right? Peyton Manning showed me more than enough last week to still fully believe in the following rules: Don't bet against Peyton on national TV and don't bet against Peyton indoors. This is Peyton's only indoor game this year and I think he can take full advantage. This game is a total toss-up but don't bet the Falcons thinking its too low of a line. The Broncos have a real shot to upset one of my NFC favorites in this particular circumstance.

Browns @ Bengals (-7)

The Browns have zero offense. Certainly the Bengals can win by 7. I think the Browns defense is grossly underrated and Bengals were less than overwhelming on either offense or defense against the Ravens. It's a divisional game and battle of Ohio. This line just might be too high or Weedon just might be bad enough that it doesn't matter. But if the Eagles couldn't cover 7, I doubt the Bengals can.

Good luck to you bettors out there!

Pigskin Prognostications!

It’s time for my prognosticating skills to be put to the test in the annual “What we know is we don’t know anything” predictions for the NFL. It is simply so difficult to know what is going to happen in any given NFL year.  Look at the Super Bowl last year.  We are looking at one Tom Brady completed pass to Wes Welker for a different champion. Every week some bounce of the ball, or roughing the passer penalty, or unfortunate injury turns the tide of a game. With only 16 games, these effects are greatly emphasized compared to the 82 game seasons of hockey and basketball, or the 162 game season of baseball.  For this reason let me just say, the NFL needs its refs back. I understand there is no such thing as a popular ref and we all hate them, but they are the best we have. If they weren’t they wouldn’t be there. While we have replacement refs we just add another element of randomness to the season. There is already too much in football. Bring back the refs!

Lets get started with the predictions shall we?

NFC East

Philadelphia 11-5

Dallas Cowboys 10-6

New York Giants 8-8

Washington Redskins 6-10

This division is a nightmare to predict. All four of these teams can win it and I wouldn’t be shocked. Sure I predicted Washington at 6-10, largely because I don’t have a ton of confidence in year 1 of RGIII and the Redskins are all assholes, but they definitely have talent and as I write this I may move them to 7-9. I think we would all be lying to ourselves if we didn’t think Philadelphia had the best overall collection of talent and coaching. Sure Andy Reid fucks up two minutes drills but when healthy the offensive skill players of the Eagles are easily the most explosive in the division. That’s saying a lot when you are looking at Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, DeMarco Murray, Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw, and David Wilson in the same division. I mean all of those players are fantasy starters including the Eagles’ foursome of Vick, McCoy, Jackson and Maclin and many of them in the top tier of their positions.

As much as I hate to say it I like the Eagles here because they have a full offseason to pull everything together that they brought in a hurried offseason last year. Desean Jackson looks focused and deadly. Vick will stay healthy enough for them to win 11 games. If Vick was an injury case this team could be 13-3 easy. The Cowboys come in as a team with as much talent but maybe some more question marks. I could see them at 8-8 again and I could see them at 12-4. Split the difference. Unfortunately, some things are cropping up that seem to never go away: an injured secondary, a Miles Austin hamstring issue, and the offensive line continuing to use the holding penalty as their best weapon against sacks. Just frustrating every year, but they have a softer schedule and I think 10 is appropriate.

The Giants were 9-7 last year, lets not forget that. Sure they won the Super Bowl, but they were a couple of blown coverages from Cowboys away from not even making the playoffs. I don’t see why this year’s regular season should be any different, especially with the first place schedule they have. Amazing pass rush and good passing game, but this team just isn’t any different from the one that barely squeaked in. I leave them out this year. Washington has some pieces to like and I think that defense this year will be good. It all hinges on RGIII being able to run the team all season. I just have little faith in it happening this year. Pierre Garcon as your best weapon doesn’t help either.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons 12-4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-6

New Orleans Saints 7-9

Carolina Panthers 6-10

Yep already busting out against the grain. Two years ago I told a good friend Tampa Bay is winning 10 games. They did. I have the same feeling about this team again. They spent some money and draft picks bolstering that offense and are praying that Schiano schemes up a better defense than they had last year. What’s helpful is I don’t think the South is as great as everyone claims it to be. The Saints just have a foul stink on them this year and I don’t trust them to be good this year. Carolina has done little in the off season to repair that horrible defense and the offense can’t expect to be any better than it was last year, they performed great. 

The Falcons though, I think are primed to cruise through the division. They look sleek and seamless on offense, basically Packers Light. The Packers defense was terrible last year and they went 15-1. I think the Falcons are going to emulate the Packers offense this year requiring little support from their defense. They are the 2^nd best team in the NFC.

For Tampa there are simply a lot of things to like about a huge bounce back. A weaker Saints team, a middling Panthers team, a legitimate WR, an actual 3 down RB, a new pro bowl guard, and most importantly a new tough minded coach. You see this every year, a team gets rid of a dog shit coach and replaces him with a new tough disciplinarian coach and they succeed. Look at the 49ers last year for example.

I simply think too much has gone wrong in New Orleans and they have had personnel defections and suspensions to deal with in addition to missing the head of the coaching staff. Sure Brees is back, but man this just feels like a giveaway year for the Saints.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 13-3

Chicago Bears 9-7

Detroit Lions 8-8

Minnesota Vikings 3-13

Packers are a dynasty.  That was an ugly playoff game they played last year but there are few teams that should compete with them and you don't win. Im not buying into the Bears as a playoff team. They have an above average offense but that defense is getting older and never seems to stay healthy, especially in the secondary. The Lions are ok, I think they played above and beyond their talent last year, and the defense is still terrible. Also, how long until the strength of that defense (the line) gets suspended for multiple games? Minnesota and Christian Ponder and not 100% Adrian Peterson all suck.

Chicago seems to be a big time dark horse team for talking heads and I just don’t get it. I think it’s the name brand that seems to sway people than the actual on field talent. Yeah Cutler and Marshall are reunited and Forte is probably a top 10 running back, but all of those players aren’t elite in my mind and will likely continued to be plagued by horrible O-line play. And they make up the more talented part of the roster. The defense was middling last year in terms of both scoring and yardage.  Nothing has changed on that side of ball. I just don’t see how this is a 10 win team.

The Lions simply lack enough defense to be consistent, that’s the end of the story. They will be able to score, but so will everyone they play. It doesn’t bode well for a playoff record. The Vikings are a mess and lack talent basically everywhere. Bring on Matt Barkley!

NFC West

San Francisco 10-6

Seattle 9-7

St. Louis 5-11

Arizona 4-12

While it doesn’t resemble the mess it was 2 years ago, this still rivals the AFC South for worst division in football. San Francisco fans have to expect a regression from a season in which everything when right, especially that enormous turnover differential.  Yes some of it is manufactured by the best defense in the NFL but they won so many games close late that the tide has to shift. A 3 game regression is expected.

I think Seattle is more talented than people give them credit for, until you see Russell Wilson starting Week 1. I loved him in college but this isn’t ideal for the Seahawks who are currently paying 2012 money to Matt Flynn and Tarvaris Jackson to not start for them. But Seattle has the best homefield advantage in football, a weak division, and some talent on all sides of the ball. Pete Carroll the GM may suck, but Pete Carroll the coach isn’t half bad.

St. Louis has nowhere to go but up. Injuries, injuries and more injuries really held this team down last year as Bradford spent much of the year throwing to players named Brandon Gibson and Danario Alexander until he was rescued with a midseason trade for Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd is gone again but there is some new talent there with Brian Quick and the other Steve Smith. I mean they have to go up from last year’s 2-14 record right?

I can’t tell which is worse, Arizona’s QB or their O-line. Kolb and Skelton are obviously bottom feeder quarterbacks in the NFL, but when you give them no time to throw…yeeesh. Given that they don’t have a top defense either, even in a crappy division, I can’t see them winning much. 4 may be generous.  

AFC East

New England Patriots 11-5

Buffalo Bills 7-9

New York Jets 7-9

Miami Dolphins 6-10

First one to 35 points wins in any New England game this year. More likely than not it will be New England. Sporting a passing attack with more weapons than even the Packers, they continue to have enough firepower to make up for what will again be a terrible defense. They did it last year, why not this year? While Brady and Belichick wear the red white and blue, this team is a lock for double digit wins every year. It sure helps when they have other excellent pieces around them.

I was ready to be sneaky and give the Dolphins consideration as a wild card team this year but not with Ryan Tannehill back there. The Dolphins were really good in the second half of the season with Matt Moore at the helm. Why blow it up for someone who isn’t Andrew Luck? The Bills are, well the Bills. They are about as obscure as a team now as the Seahawks, tucked away in the corner of the continent. The Bills sport (probably) the 2^nd best QB in the division and some talent on offense, but they were the AFCs worst defense last year and Stephon Gilmore isn’t enough to change that. But I’ll give them one more win than last year.

The best thing to do with the Jets is to wager when Tebow will start. The Jets offense has been comically bad in the pre-season for what its worth, but even last year they simply weren’t good. They lead off with Buffalo, @Pittsburgh, @Miami and Houston. There is a very real chance they go 1-3 or even 0-4 in that stretch. Is there a chance Tebow starts then? The sooner they get him in, the sooner they start winning. My guess is Tebow never starts this year without injury to Sanchez. The Jets are all in on Sanchez at least for this year. If he fails (which he will) then maybe Tebow gets a chance next year and can actually spend one full off-season and training camp in his career getting all the 1^st team reps, instead of getting backup reps or starting reps as a punt protector.

AFC  South

Houston Texans 11-5

Tennessee Titans 9-7

Indianapolis Colts 6-10

Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13

People seem to think this division is super terrible for some reason. Houston was probably the best AFC team last year and if they had Schaub may have been super bowl champs. They did have a lot of player defections including some pieces on the O-Line, Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans but they had a lot of talent on defense and I think they won’t miss a beat. That said they are the Texans and while they were good last year I still ahvent forgotten the last half decade of the shoulda-0been Texans. They just have a bad habit of losing games they shouldn’t have. They could be 14-2 or 9-7 and I wouldn’t be surprised one bit. 11-5 feels right.

I don’t really see how there is any real difference at this point between Jake Locker and Matt Hasselbeck. They didn’t have Kenny Britt for more than 3 games last year and Chris Johnons was simply awful all year and never rounded into shape. By all accounts their offense should be even better this year and they went 9-7 last year. I don’t get why people are writing them off so quickly.

The Colts were bad, but it wasn’t just Orlovsky syndrome. The defense was horrible, the O-line was bad and I’m not even sure they really employed a running back last year. Good quarterbacks can change the fortunes of a team super quickly. If Cam can take a horrible defense in Carolina and give them 6 wins, Luck can too.

Blaine Gabbert is the worst starting QB in the league. Hands down. But they do have a strong defense and a strong commitment to the run, so they wont be embarrassing as they lose 13 games this year. Next year if they have Barkley throwing to Blackmon I’d be happy to make this a good team.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens 11-5

Cincinnati Bengals 8-8

Pittsburgh Steelers 7-9

Cleveland Browns 4-12

I like Baltimore a lot this year, but their schedule is so tough. They were one horribly bad dropped pass from being in and probably winning the Super Bowl as well. I think this division is also overrated much like the AFC South is a bit underrated, and I think Baltimore will cruise to a title in this division easier than people think.

Cincinnati was a playoff team last year but I can see them regressing this year. They have a good defense and Andy Dalton did manage to prove some doubters wrong like me.  But I get the sense that the NFL is ready for these guys this time around. They have enough talent to be a playoff contender again but I just feel like with that increased difficulty in schedule (trading in the NFC West and a depressed AFC South for the NFC East and AFC West) they just fall short.

Pittsburgh is my team to fall off the map and it’s going to start offensively. They tried to repair a horrible line with DeCastro and he is already out for the season. No matter how tough and durable Ben is, you can only get hit so many times by NFL players before you break and he gets hit more than anyone. Look there is being 30 years old and there is being Ben Roethlisberger 30 years old. I have strong doubts about him even making it through 75% of the season. The schedule is tough and without Ben this team is god awful.

Cleveland. Underrated defense and possibly a decent running game gives them the same fighting chance as Jacksonville. I loved Weedon in college but he doesn’t seem to have grasped the NFL game. It’s nto like Cleveland has any other options. They’ll lose 13 games but I don’t think they’ll look Arizona or Minnesota bad doing it.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs 10-6

Denver Broncos 9-7

Oakland Raiders 8-8

San Diego Chargers 7-9

Look this is the most obviously wide open division in football and usually it can be a pretty fun division and I think this division will produce some of our best games this year. Odds are I have this division completely wrong, but I actually *cringe* believe in Romeo Crennel winning this division. Kansas City returns a wealth of talent from ACL blow outs, has probably the 2^nd best home field advantage and a slightly easier schedule and more talent on offense by default. I just think they are the most solid team in the division.

Peyton Manning in 2010 wasn’t the same as 2005. Why am I supposed to believe that he will be even as good as 2010? Now of course, he is a better QB right now than Tebow. No one can question that, but they won 4 games last year that wouldn’t win 9 out of 10 times and still only finished 8-8. They were a 5-11 team or 6-10 team last year and everyone seems to forget the absolute ass kicking they got at the hands of the Patriots in the playoffs. So I have enough faith in Peyton Manning to give them 3-4 more expected wins. But not enough faith to believe that they are all of the sudden in the same class as New England, Baltimore, and Houston.

Oakland is an enigma. I think they are solid on both sides of the ball. It all rests on Carson and while he of course has talent and youd probably rather have him than Gabbert, Ponder, Fitzpatrick, Cassel, Weedon, Locker, Tannehill and Wilson/Flynn, I just don’t believe hes good enough to get them over the edge and that’s all they need at this point, is a top 15 QB. Not this year.

I’m sick and tired of always hearing San Diego come up as a division winner or super bowl contender. They have m-fing Norv Turner as head coach. End of story. Why they brought back Turner again is simply beyond me. But this goes deeper than that. Their skill positions have deteriorated over the last couple of years. At his very best Ryan Mathews doesn’t present near the threat of LT. Antonio Gates is now 32 with two seasons of feet problems. Philip Rivers turns 31 this and has had his interception rate increase over the last two seasons and his velocity dip. There’s more to this. He was Drew Bledsoesque in the pocket when he was 23. At 31 he’s basically a statute back there. He’s definitely Roehtlisberger problems between his non-mobility and fading O-Line. I don’t think he’s ever the same again. The O-line has lost several key players from those mid-late 2000s team and the defense no longer has enough electric playmakers. Simply put this is just a mediocre team now and there is nothing on paper or on film last year that would make me believe this isn’t the worst team in the division.

NFC Playoff Teams: Eagles, Cowboys, Falcons, Bucs, Packers, 49ers

NFC Champ Game: Packers over Falcons

AFC Playoff Teams: Patriots, Texans, Titans, Ravens, Chiefs, Broncos

AFC Champ Game: Ravens over Patriots

Super Bowl: Packers over Ravens

It’s nice to have football back, enjoy the ride readers!