Anyone who knows me well enough knows I will never blame a win or loss on a ref. Too many other plays have happened in the game for us to squarely blame the referees for blowing a crucial call. Referees blow calls all the time that help direct the outcome of a game, but the players still need to perform. While the replacement referees are really doing their best to change my philosophy, I'll still stick by my beliefs that a referee can never "give a game" to a team. To illustrate how staunch that belief is, I still refuse to place sole blame on the referees for Dallas losing the NBA Finals to Miami when Dwyane Wade was seemingly sent to the free throw line every time down the floor in the pivotal 5. The reality is Dallas had a chance to shut that series down in Games 3 and 6 and failed to execute. That's generally the issue, if you put yourself in a position to be "jobbed" by a referee it's because you failed to execute somewhere down the line. Take last night's game for example. A referee didn't allow Aaron Rodgers to be sacked 8(!) times. At any point, the Packers offensive line could have stepped up and moved them in position for one more field goal and last night's blown call may not have mattered. Or how about actually playing proper safety deep coverage and not allowing Russell Wilson and Golden Tate to hook up for a 41 yard TD pass when at that point Wilson had 17 yards passing. That's the troubling part of this. What should be a top story, the fact that Green Bay's offensive line is so bad that one of the elite quarterbacks may not survive the season for all the hits, is swept under the rug by the calls in this game. Packers fans need to worry more about that offensive line than any calls the refs made in that game.
That being said I think the worst aspect of these refs is not the terrible calls. After all the professionals make terrible "game-altering" calls all the time: The Tuck Rule game, Ed Hochuli's "forward pass" call in the Broncos-Chargers game that led to him being ridiculed, nearly every big call in the the Steelers/Seahawks Super Bowl, the Music City Miracle "lateral" that beat Buffalo in its last playoff appearance, hell they've even gotten a coin toss wrong. Bringing back the professionals won't eliminate horrible calls. They will happen. For some reason these replacement refs have done enough to make everyone forget that horrible pass interference and turnover class are the norm in the NFL. Even the hit of Darius Heyward-Bey that everyone says should've been flagged may not have been called. The regular refs have often not thrown flags on illegal hits that were later fined.
No the real reason the lockout needs to end is for the administration, confidence, and pacing of the game. I've heard some broadcasters making excuses that hey don't blame the replacement refs they are doing their best and are unqualified to do the job. Being intimidated and blowing judgment calls on pass interference are one thing. Simply not knowing the rules is another. Allowing Harbaugh two, not one, but two challenges after he was out of timeouts is unacceptable. Being unable to mark off the correct yardage for an unsportsmanlike penalty is unacceptable. Allowing scrums EVERY...SINGLE...TIME after plays without flags is unacceptable. Taking 10 minutes to figure out where to mark the ball because you are simply unsure of the penalty rules is unacceptable. The Falcons-Broncos MNF game last week was nearly unwatchable for these reasons. Not because of any particularly bad call but because of the administration of the game. That's what's missing here and blame rests squarely on the replacement ref's shoulders. This is a golden opportunity for the refs to boost their reffing career. They obviously enjoy it as they are willing to subject themselves to the ridicule and intimidation every week. Why not take it seriously and learn the rule book? As I posted on Facebook last night 12 year old veteran Madden players have a better grasp of the rule book than these guys. They have now had 7 weeks of on the job training (4 preseason and 3 regular season) and they still can't get the rules right? That's the real travesty here and that's what is making the NFL borderline unwatchable right now.
Of course, the NFL and its hubris are also blameable, but they may be operating just as any other super powerful entertainment brand would in this situation. NHL is in a lockout, NBA is still weeks away from regular season games, 18 of the 30 teams in MLB are ostensibly eliminated from playoff contention, golf, nascar, and tennis seasons are all either over or winding down. What else are casual sports fans going to watch on Thursdays, Sundays, and Mondays? Estimates range anywhere from 27-36 million people play fantasy football. They aren't gong to stop watching. No amount of bitching is going to alter this situation when the NFL continues to have bottom line leverage over the officials. The statement is we don't give a crap if the sport is a circus, people watch and pay money anyway. And oh by the way, this is taking attention away from other issues Goodell doesn't want to talk about: concussions and Bountygate.
Basically as fans we have two choices as always. 1) Deal with it. 2) Stop watching. We love our teams and the diversions that football provides in terms gambling and fantasy sports too much to stop watching. So fans: deal with it. The lockout will resolve eventually and then at least football games may go back to being 3 hours, 15 minutes long instead of 3 hours and 30 minutes because these replacements waste 15 minutes administering the game. In the meantime stop complaining about horrible calls, they will still be ever present when the pros return.
Moving on to the gambling, I think after a few weeks we have really started to learn tendencies about teams and tendencies with how this season has been going. A key I have found with the lines is to be quick to change your bias. This was ever present in two of my picks last week. I abandoned the Titans (and really the Lions should have covered) and jumped on the Cardinals. I think these were two early season changes in thinking that well help my frame of mind going forward as I try to get a perfect week. Let's examine last week's picks:
Giants @ Panthers (Even) – I'm adding this to my gambling manual. Avoid all Thursday games this year. They are simply too unpredictable on the short rest. There was absolutely no reason for the Panthers to throw down that stinkfest on both offense and defense at home on national TV other than they were simply unprepared. The problem is you can never tell which team will be unprepared. Week 1 it was these same Giants at home, Week 2 it was the unstoppable Bears, Week 3 it was the much-healthier Panthers at home. As much as I'm tempted to pound the Ravens here at home against Cleveland, it would not shock me to see them unprepared and unable to cover. Especially after Sunday night's barnburner against New England.
Falcons (+3.5) @ Chargers – Yup. I was rewarded in my justification of this pick. Atlanta is too good to be giving 3.5 points to anyone and San Diego was grossly overrated.
Eagles @ Cardinals (+4) – This one felt good. It just felt good to totally nail this pick. It's not a shocker that I won, I'm just happy with method I used to get there. Changing biases so early in the season is tough, but you just had to after the Cardinals defense made Tom Brady look bad at home. That was no fluke. Making Michael Vick with a new center and no Maclin look bad was taking candy from a baby.
Texans (-2.5) @ Broncos – Texans scared me a little towards the end, but this is just a solid team. Very good up and down, they have to be the AFC favorites over my initial Ravens pick based on the defenses. Baltimore's is not good Houston's is. I could easily see Houston winning a 31-20 AFC title game against Baltimore or New England and it wouldn't even be that close. I'm glad I got the cheap line in this game.
Lions (-3.5) @ Titans – Can't believe the Lions blew this. They had the seven point lead, relegated Chris Johnson to decoy and just needed to contain Locker. They couldn't and gave up 21 straight points. The some how came back, but couldn't finish the job with a TD in overtime that would've covered. I'm pretty out on both these teams at this point.
Bonus Game!
49ers (-7) @ Vikings – Guess I should've made this a trap game. 7 may be too many points to ever lay for the 49ers. I know they've covered that line twice already this season, but you aren't so much betting on the 49ers to be an overall great team like the Texans, but rather you are flipping the coin that the 49ers can get up by 7 or 10 early and pin their ears back. This is a team that thrives on leads and struggles when trailing. If a team gets up 7-0 on the 49ers early you can kiss any -7 bet good. Good to know going forward. Also, every Vikings game spread at this point better be within 3 points in either direction. They have been in every game and have won 2 of them.
Week 4's Picks (As always in order of preference)
Patriots (-4) @ Bills
Why? The Patriots have slaughtered a bad team, and barely lost to what may be two of the top 8 teams in the league (really depends on Kolb's growth). Now they can't beat a Bills team by more than 4 coming off of back to back losses in which the Patriots will almost certainly enter Eff-You Mode. The Bills on the other hand got smoked by the Jets and beat the Chiefs and Browns, two teams that certainly haven't started strong. I like the Patrioits resume here and I like even more that New England really needs to blow out a team to get the Boston fans/media off their back.
49ers (-4) @ Jets
This is more like it. Alex Smith throws up a clunker and now the 49ers are only laying 4 instead of what should probably be 7 again. The Jets are not good, in fact they may be the worst 2-1 team out there. Sanchez was below 50% for much of the game against the Dolphins. I can't wait to see what the 49ers defense does to him. After all he's no Christian Ponder. Also I'm sure this line stays low under the whole west coast team traveling for an early game on the east coast doctrine, but I read somewhere Harbaugh is actually good in these games. He'll get the charges ready to go for this one.
Patriots (-4) @ Bills
Why? The Patriots have slaughtered a bad team, and barely lost to what may be two of the top 8 teams in the league (really depends on Kolb's growth). Now they can't beat a Bills team by more than 4 coming off of back to back losses in which the Patriots will almost certainly enter Eff-You Mode. The Bills on the other hand got smoked by the Jets and beat the Chiefs and Browns, two teams that certainly haven't started strong. I like the Patrioits resume here and I like even more that New England really needs to blow out a team to get the Boston fans/media off their back.
49ers (-4) @ Jets
This is more like it. Alex Smith throws up a clunker and now the 49ers are only laying 4 instead of what should probably be 7 again. The Jets are not good, in fact they may be the worst 2-1 team out there. Sanchez was below 50% for much of the game against the Dolphins. I can't wait to see what the 49ers defense does to him. After all he's no Christian Ponder. Also I'm sure this line stays low under the whole west coast team traveling for an early game on the east coast doctrine, but I read somewhere Harbaugh is actually good in these games. He'll get the charges ready to go for this one.
Giants (+2.5) @ Eagles
Why am I supposed to like the Eagles here? They continue to be a mess, Vick has turned into the Rex Grossman of 2012 with his incredible turnover rate. There is now 60 minutes of game film on how to beat the Eagles defense courtesy of Kevin Kolb. The Giants have gotten better every week this season and yet somehow they are given 2.5. Take the gift and run. Of course being a bitter NFC East game on national TV this has trap potential all over it. But I'll ignore it.
Vikings (+6.5) @ Lions
Everything everyone has watched form Minnesota has shown they can play with anyone so far this season. As I wrote above the Vikings games should only be 3 points either way until further notice. I think you get a free 3.5 points here. While it looks like Stafford may play the Lions have not been so dominant as to warrant this line. Barely beating St. Louis, getting drubbed for most of the game by San Francisco and getting down by as many as 2 tds in Tennessee. Detroit's defense is terrible and Minnesota's offense has been efficient. Grab me a shank of mutton and horn of ale for marauding Vikings!
Bengals (-2.5) @ Jaguars
There will be no bonus this week. This slate was tough and I have far less confidence in any other pick after those first four. Not too scientific about this other than Cincinnati's offense has been rolling the last two weeks and while their defense hasn't been good I don't know that Jacksonville's able to take too much advantage. As long as Cincy can contain MoJo I think they can win by a field goal.
Last week: 3-2 (3-3 with bonus), Season: 5-5 (6-6 with bonus)
Good luck to all you gamblers out there this week and hopefully we can all have a good time enjoying a better pace of play in the NFL with the pros back.
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