Troublemakers and Their Worth

So the NFL lockout is over. Pretty anticlimactic. I loved it back in March when ESPN ran around like a chicken with their head cut off when the NFL officially locked out. All of these talking heads predicted apocalypses or reduced game seasons or a variety of other things that generally did not include training camps essentially starting on time and the NFL missing zero meaningful games. Well I was there. I was there to ridicule those drama queens at ESPN and told them to shove their doomsday predictions. This isn't the NBA where teams are legitimately losing money. This is the NFL where everyone prints their own money. In this economy you don't walk away from that guarantee.

So here we are, the owners and players approved the CBA, not giving enough time to actually have the hall of fame game on August 7th but in time to have every other meaningless preseason game and this lockout will be forgotten the second it ends. This lockout just brought out the full force of negatives of that 24 hour sports media cycle. Everything is so reactionary, that hardly any sports "journalist" stops to think for a moment. It was March when the NFL locked out. As much as people might care about long drawn out free agency negotiations or stupid ass OTAs, the reality is missing those things in March, April, May, and June is not taking any money out of anyone's pockets and the fans really don't miss it.

I have absolutely no hard feelings about this lockout and I doubt anyone in America really does either. People are excited about the up-tempo free agency period we had this year and what it means for real and fantasy rosters. In addition to free agency signings you also have the cut list, holdouts, and trade demands. It's in that second area I wanted to focus a little bit. In that area you have overpriced under performing players, overpriced aging players, mental cases, overachieving underpaid players, locker room cancers, and players with an irrational sense of their worth.

The first guy I wanted to talk about what James Harrision. Look at him here outrunning the entire Cardinals offense in Super Bowl 43.


The guy is a good player and has been the NFL's defensive player of the year before. He definitely earns his money and doesn't have on-field issues. He has off-field issues, mostly running his mouth. In years past he has sparred with league commisioner Roger Goodell over the violent hits policies that have been enacted. He even went so far as to claim he will retire instead of playing in Goodell's league. This kind of behavior is childish but at least isn't detrimental to the team.

No, he's started to do negative things with his own team now. Last month he made comments that placed the blame for the Steelers losing Super Bowl 45 squarely on the shoulders of the Pittsburgh offense, most notably Roethlisberger and Mendenhall, calling them out for their turnovers. This of course overlooking the fact that the defense gave up 24 points of its own, gave up a nearly back-breaking 10 play 5+ minute drive at the end of the 4th quarter, and allowed Rodgers a 111 QB rating.

The problem with these kind of comments is two-fold. First, it just makes you look like a crybaby in media and leaves you completely open to ridicule. It's just poor form on its own.

Second, and more importantly, it makes you a horrible teammate. Sports are all about teams. Ask the Mavericks or ask the Giants. Those two teams probably didn't have the most talent in their respective leagues but they won championships with tight knit teams that worked together and won together.

Now the Steelers have to wonder if there is some tension in the locker room, the players will have to continue to answer questions in the media about chemistry and other things that take away focus from winning. Even though they are professionals ans used to the scrutiny it wears on you. Just ask Brian Orakpo of Redskins. Before Albert Haynesworth was traded this offseason he told the media straight out he was tired of answering these questions about Haynesworth and didn't want to answer them again. The solution? Get rid of Haynesworth. Haynesworth was definitely not worth the distraction because he made no effort on the field.

For me, if I was Pittsburgh I wouldn't make too drastic of a change with Harrison. Sure he's a douchebag crybaby, but hes good on the field and Pittsburgh is one of the consummate professional teams like New England. They just know how to work.

The next guy I want to talk about is Dez Bryant. Here is a picture of him doing things Roy Williams can't do: catch a football.


Dez Bryant is another guy who looks like he will be decent on the field but he may some attitude and personal issues off the field. First was the whole training camp shoulder pads incident. Last year during Bryant's rookie training camp he was asked to participate in some routine rookie hazing: carrying a veteran's shoulder pads. Instead of keeping his mouth shut and doing what a rookie should do, he said he isn't doing that, that that's not what football is about.

A football team has to be like a family. Playing team football is more than just athleticism. In no other sport does chemistry and trust mean more than in football. There are 11 players on the field at a time and so many moving parts designed to collaborate into a single play. Dez Bryant needs to learn that. A little rookie hazing goes a long way towards endearing you to the veteran players and keeping a loose locker room. Instead, Dez created a distraction (not hard to do in a Cowboys uniform) and probably some animosity among his fellow offensive players. Of course, Dez got his hazing in the end when Roy Williams saddled him with a dinner bill for $55,000.

Beyond that Dez has noted maturity issues with money. His rookie contract is for 11.8 million, with 8 million guaranteed over 5 years. It sounds like a lot, especially since there is no state income tax in Texas, but the federal government comes in and takes 39% assuming no Enron accounting. Then you have the lavish lifestyle associated with being an NFL rising star, meaning you buy a shit ton of jewelry, and other things. Dez is allegedly on the hook for failing to repay over 850,000 dollars in jewelry and tickets he "bought". No one is taking him on for endorsement deals and his handler Deion Sanders, a guy who could make Dez a lot of money, dropped him. All of these things are serious red flags.

This is starting to remind me of Terrell Owens all over again. Unbelievable talent, can't get out of his own way. Granted Dez has generally kept his mouth shut, but as anyone who listened to me after the 2010 draft knows, I was very worried about how long Dez would be a Cowboy given his off field issues and lack of professionalism and maturity. He's worth the headache as long as he his producing, but if he doesn't turn into a Top 5 or Top 10 WR over the next few years id be happy to drop his ass.

There are other notable problem children, names who actually did get shipped out by their teams: Chad Johnson Ochocinco Johnson and Albert Haynesworth. These are also All-Pro supreme talents who just can't get out of their own ways and they were deemed expendable. These were good moves by both the Bengals and Redskins. As i mentioned above football is the most team oriented of the team sports. You dont need superstars to win (Just ask the Bears and Seahawks) you need a good team that functions well together to win. These names and the several others I haven't mentioned are all excellent players but they may just take more off the table than they put on.

Mid Season Recap

So it's been nearly a month since I have posted. I owe you guys to be better than that. So i think I might give you guys a two piece today. Part I today is about baseball, Part II today is about college football, so you guys should have something to read today.

So prior to the start of the baseball season I predicted every record and division outcome and got quite a bit of responses. I want to revisit it to see how I stand with less than 70 games to go, since I'm not the type of guy to make predictions and then hide them if they dont pan out. So ill post my predictions, that teams actual pace, what I said back then about them and then add a little mid- season commentary.

So, I haven't looked at these since I made the prediction so it will look interesting to me as I write them as well. Without further ado, lets find out how my swami skills are at this point.

AL West

Texas Rangers 91-71 (Pace: 93-69)

Anaheim Angels of Orange County of Los Angeles 86-76 (Pace: 86-76, Wow...)

The team that shall not be named 82-80 (Pace: 71-91)

Seattle Mariners 63-99 (Pace: 73-89)

What I said then: Here's my thinking. Texas did lose Cliff Lee but go back and check their record in his starts. He bitched about the hot weather in August and didnt bring his A game against lesser opponents. Texas still has the best offense in the division, and while they made a mistake leaving Neftali in the pen the growth of Derek Holland and any use out of Brandon Webb will help the Rangers win ballgames.

Now: Derek Holland has been OK, but the rest of the Rangers staff has been good, especially Ogando coming out of the bullpen to replace Tommy Hunter. They started up and down with Hamilton, Cruz, and Andrus all missing time, but with a full clip, the Rangers have run off an impressive 11 in row. The division is theirs to lose, and still have a great chance at the #1 seed in he AL.

Then: The Angels added a bat in Vernon Wells and hope to have Kendrys (how does it take you several years to correct everyone on the real spelling of your name) back for 5 out of 6 months this year as opposed to the 2.5 he played last year.

Now: Vernon Wells has largely sucked (although he's hot now) and Kendrys isnt playing this whole year. Yet, they are on pace to meet my prediction, why? 4 starters under 4.00 era and Mark Trumbo doing his best Kendrys Morales impression with 18 homers. I see the Angels fading a bit at this point.

Then: The team that shall not be named has the best rotation in the division and possibly in the whole AL but a popgun offense that makes the Giants' offense from last year look like Murderers' Row.

Now: This was true for about a month and half. Their rotation was ungodly. But Cahill and Gio regressed a little and Anderson got hurt. But that offense is worse than popgun. I went to a Rivercats game (A's AAA affiliate) a few weeks ago and the cupboard is somewhat bare. The A's need to be heavy sellers here and get some good offensive prospects at the deadline.

Then: The Mariners were awful last year and while they will still be awful its hard to predict team to lose 100 games but they just didnt make any efforts this offseason to improve.

Now: Michael Pineda gave them a legitimate number 2 starter and their young offense hit well to start the season which gave them their boost. But they have lost 9 in a row and I still see them finishing below the A's giving me the clean sweep on this division. The Mariners have a bright future, but it will be after Ichiro is long gone. He has finally hit his long expected regression this year a la Derek Jeter.

AL Central

Minnesota Twins 88-74 (Pace: 77-85, whoops)

Detroit Tigers 87-75 (Pace: 85-77, thats better)

Chicago White Sox 86-76 (Pace: 78-84)

Cleveland Indians 71-91 (Pace: 85-77, swing and miss)

Kansas City 61-101 (Pace: 65-97)

Then: As you can tell im not comfortable picking the winner of this division. Everyone writes off Minny every year but they just keep winning. If Morneau comes back healthy they have easily the best lineup in this division and Liriano is an ace.

Now: I was right about it being a hard division to predict. Minnesota lost their captain for like 2 months and couldn't seem to buy a win.This was compounded with the frequent DL trips by Delmon Young, Denard Span, and Justin Morneau. This offense was miserable for so long. But they are the hottest team in the division and only 5 games out. I still may be right yet.

Then: The Tigers have Verlander and Scherzer who was a monster in the 2nd half and probably the best rotation up and down in the division. The lineup is only mediocre and gets worse if Cabrera continues to drink a fifth before every game.

Now: Verlander is your AL Cy Young (Sorry Jered Weaver). This team is hitting well and generally avoiding the injury bug. Scherzer has been mediocre. The Tigers are a good candidate for a 2nd half swoon unless they get better pitching.

Then: The White Sox has a killer lineup but not my favorite pitching staff. Peavy just didnt work out. They won 88 last year with kind of the same deal, I think they do about that this year.

Now: What i thought was a killer lineup turned mediocre to subpar. Without the pitching staff I am surprised this team is close to on pace for a .500 record. I don't see them as contending this year anymore.

Then: Cleveland has some nice young offense pieces starting with Black Magic Woman Carlos Santana, but they are still very young and have an awful rotation.

Now: What the hell man. I know I am going to say this about another team in the NL, but geez, that offense just came together, and the rotation I thought was horrible has been good with young pitchers like Carrasco and Masterson putting together a great first half. I think they wilt under pressure from the better teams in Detroit and Minnesota but they have still held that lead.

Then; I guess it was easy to predict a team to lose 100 games. They lost Greinke. They have a bunch of prehype and posthype prospects in their lineup and Billy Butler. This team sucks really bad.

Now: Well they aren't on pace for 100 losses, but they are damn close. The team just has no pitching. They do have some cause for celebration in their young offensive talent, and the final breakout of Alex Gordon who was the posthype prospect I referred to. But this team needs to find some young pitching to go with that young offense that could be special in a couple of years.

AL East

Boston Red Sox 100-62 (Pace: 99-63)

New York Yankees 88-74 (Pace: 97-65, ugh this team just never dies)

Toronto Blue Jays 85-77 (Pace: 79-83)

Tampa Bay Devil Rays (That is the name of the animal you people who are afraid of the word Devil) 79-83 (Pace: 87-75, shouldve flipped flopped Toronto and Tampa)

Baltimore Orioles 77-85 (Pace: 67-95)

Then: Boston has a killer lineup of players i would actually spend 200 million on. They were hampered by injuries last year and still won 89 games. I love Gonzalez in Fenway and the pitching staff is decent enough with Lester at the top.

Now: Yep, Boston has been everything I (and anyone with half a brain) thought they would be. Adrian is your sure fire AL MVP and that makes me happy since i made a heavy investment in him in fantasy leagues.

Then: 7 win drop off for the Yankees. Thats a combination of aging, losing Pettitte in the rotation (say what you want about him but was consistently good enough), and the general malaise that built up in the Jeter negotiations. They are my WC team though.

Now: Wrong. They are actually on pace to win more. Its sick. Between the Posada drama, Jeter drama, and somehow getting incredible half seasons from 2005 studs Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon this team just will not die. They are like cockroaches. I really hope Tampa can some how catch them.

Then: Toronto has good young talent in the rotation (Morrow and Drabek) but no real ace yet. Bounceback years from Lind and Hill make the lineup as productive this year without Wells as it was with him last year when they won 85 last year. I think they are about as good.

Now: Wrong again idiot. I did get the Lind bounceback right (again good for my fantasy numbers), but the young rotation has sucked balls (outside of Ricky Romero). I think the pace they are on is probably the record they will finsih with. No need to blow it up. Just hope the young guns come back better next year.

Then: Tampa lost Crawford, Pena, and Garza in the offseason and replaced them with nothing (yes Damon and Ramirez are nothing at this stage of their careers). They have a decent rotation but its very young outside of Shields and I just dont see this as a winning team this year.

Now: Why are they a winning team? That young rotation plus a complete 180 by Shields. Plus they had more useful bats than I initially gave them credit for with the bounce back by Zobrist and Matt Joyce coming in and replacing any lost production from Crawford. They are a legitimate contender for that wild card spot and I just totally missed this prediction.

Then: Baltimore is young and getting better and that 77 wins will be a byproduct of the sheer determination of Buck Showalter.

Now: Of all my misses so far, I think this is the most disappointing. The Orioles didnt have enough talent in this division to get close, but I love Showalter and I wanted to see what he could do with a full season. They started out so hot and now have just crumbled to Royals status. No pitching (no start under 4.00 ERA) has really killed this team. They are really young so maybe they have some hope in the future but not this year.

NL West

The Team with the most fair weather unsophisticated fans per capita 87-75 (Pace: 93-73)

Colorado Rockies 85-77 (Pace: 77-85)

San Diego Padres 81-81 (Pace: 69-93, Thats a bad miss)

Los Angeles Dodgers 80-82 (Pace: 72-90)

Arizona Diamondbacks 70-92 (Pace: 87-75)

Then: Fair Weather central are the champs. Their biggest loss was Uribe. But i like the looks of Sandoval this year with his ridiculous weight loss. The rotation is still undeniably excellent and until the young guns fall apart you cant write them off.

Now: Yep pretty much what I thought they would be again, except a little surprising that they are ahead of pace after losing Posey and Sanchez for extended periods. This division is weak and they have it by virtue of that staff.

Then: Colorado has the best collection of young talent in their prime in this division and an underrated rotation. I would not be shocked to see this team win this division.

Now: Ubaldo has not been the same since the first half of last year. They also have had a complete lack of a 5th starter. I think the ERA out of that slot is something like 6.00. Its hard to get momentum when you are guaranteed to lose every 5th game. The offense has power this year, but not great average. Basically the young guys just arent playing as well as I thought. I still believe in this team but they have a tough road ahead.

Then: Losing Gonzalez is a blow for the Padres but between the growth and addition of a few pieces they may add up to Adrian's production. The rotations and the ballpark is still a plus for this team but Latos being out will hinder their beginning of the season and their record.

Now: 5 pieces havent made up Adrian's production. Their offense is miserable, Latos has been miserable, and I'm sure Heath Bell is gone. This team is in the shitter, and wont get out for a long time.

Then: The Dodgers have a nice rotation and some good bats, but Hollywood Kemp needs to rebound and be the middle of the order basher he was supposed to be. I see this team at the same level they were last year.

Now: Kemp has been a basher, but this team stood little chance having to answer questions about their paychecks and direction of the team every day for the last 90 games. I think this team is better than their record and they may spark an excellent 2nd half run.

Then: Arizona has a new manager and new team philosophy. They have some nice bats like Chris Young, Kelly Johnson and Justin Upton but a terrible rotation. Small uptick in wins for the new feel in the clubhouse.

Now: At least I acknowledged the new team philosphy, but totally underestimated it. The Diamondbacks have been getting knock out pitching from a bunch of no names and they have really taken advantage of a weakened division. I don't see them making a push but man that games won pace is so high, its already a successful season.

NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers 92-70 (Pace: 86-76)

Cincinnati Reds 85-77 (Pace: 80-82)

St. Louis Cardinals 79-83 (Pace: 85-77)

Houston Astros 77-85 (Pace: 53-109, man thats terrible)

Chicago Cubs 76-86 (Pace: 64-98)

Pittsburgh Pirates 69-93 (Pace: 85-77, wow)

Then: I think top to bottom the Brewers are the most complete team in this division. I know Greinke is hurt but arms like Gallardo and Marcum will hold the fort until hes back. They have a top of division lineup as well anchored by Fielder and Braun.

Now: I think this still holds true, they are the best team but man Pittsburgh and St. Louis aren't making it easy. Also that pitching staff is performing well below what i thought they would, the Brewers have still given up more runs than they have scored.

Then: The Reds won the division last year and they have a top notch lineup as well, but that pitching staff and its age and durability worry me. I see a winning team with a slight regression.

Now: The Reds are pretty close to where I thought they would be but the durability question reared its ugly head so far this year as a lot of pitchers just havent stayed healthy. They are on the outside looking in, in what is maybe the toughest race, but I think they are still contenders.

Then: I think the Cardinals are very overrated. They have two offensive pieces that would scare me and they lost their ace for the season. Carpenter may not make it through the whole season either. I think 79 wins might be a little generous.

Now: Yeah you would think 79 wins is too generous wouldnt you? These guys just keep cobbling together wins as Jaime Garcia picked up Wainwright's slack, and Berkman picked up Pujols. I dont think they win the division though, but they may be a winning team.

Then: The Astros are a middling team with some middling pieces like Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, but not a lot of top end talent to make a real threat. I see them at the same level as last year.

Now: Terribly wrong. Definitely the worst projection of the year. They are a garbage team with garbage pieces. There is no offense outside of Pence. There is no pitching outside of Wandy. 2 players do not make a baseball team. A

Then: The Cubs were terrible last year. They did add Pena and Garza which is enough to improve but they are just like the Astros, not enough top talent here to threaten.

Now: I was little more accurate on this one. Starlin has been a revelation but they need to dump Zambrano for whatever they can get and just retool. This team has too big of a fan base to suck like this for several years.

Then: The Pirates have so much young talent they could be a AAA team. Between McCutchen, Alvarez, Tabata and Walker they could have a sick lineup in 3 years if they can hold it together. Too bad we are talking about this year and not 3 years down the road. The reason they lose so much is that rotation. They are in a better poisition than the Royals but they look an awful lot like them on paper.

Now: Well that really young talent just broke out in a major way. They have a legitimate all-star in McCutchen (not just a mandatory every team has to have an all star, all star) and that offense is scoring some runs finally. But what has them half a game out of first is some pitching. Karstens has been amazing, and they have 4 starters at 4.04 ERA or lower, plus two legitimate back of the bullpen relievers. They are finally a complete team this year and too be honest Im really happy for them. They have a beautiful ball park and loads of history and after a while you just get sick of watching a team suck year after year. Kudos to the Pirates, I cant believe they arrived this year.

NL East

Atlanta Braves 95-67 (Pace: 96-66)

Philadelphia Phillies 92-70 (Pace: 101-61)

Florida Marlines 78-84 (Pace: 79-83)

NY Mets 76-86 (Pace: 79-83)

Washington Nationals 70-92 (Pace: 81-81, that's a little shocking)

Then: Yeah thats right the Braves. They are the more complete team at this point. Tommy Hanson is my dark horse for Cy Young. They added a masher in Uggla (who also has the best track record for health among 2bs) and if Heyward avoids a sophomore slump its the best lineup top to bottom in the division.

Now: Hanson got hurt, Prado got hurt, Uggla has been well below the mendoza line all season and yet they are still on pace for 96. I don't think Philly has this on lockdown and really, Atlanta is right where I expected them be in the won-loss column.

Then: Philly has the four horseman. But this is the regular season record we are talking here. I already mentioned Cliff Lee's penchant for mailing in games. Oswalt and Hamels have both had recent injury problems and the lineup lost Werth and Utley. I think this all hurts their regular season bottom line. They are my WC team and 92 wins is a lot but they wont win the division.

Now: So it's really the three horsemen, Oswalt is douchebag for basically walking out on his team and then getting hurt moving tornado rubble. I'm sorry I thought you were getting 8 figures to play baseball. I underestimated how the other pitchers would totally feed off of each other. I thought they would take nights off and then the offense would let them down. Instead Cliff Lee throws down one of the most dominant months ever in June and Halladay has been Halladay.

Then: The Marlins have an underrated staff. Johnson is an ace and Vazquez has proven he can pitch in the NL at a dominant level. Both Sanchez and Nolasco have also shown brilliance at times. I just worry about them scoring runs outside of Mike Stanton dropping 500 foot bombs.

Now: Hanley has been awful and Josh Johnson has been hurt for a while now. They hit kind of a malaise when Cousins ran over Posey sparking an irrational debate about the catcher rule. They never quite had the talent to compete in this division, and they are currently right around the pace I had them at.

Then: The Mets are old and decrepid with not a lot of hope for rebuilding. Santana is out for month leaving Pelfrey and Niese to hold down the rotation. Not a good prospect. I like players like Pagan and Ike Davis but this team is just too mediocre.

Now: Yeah they came out a little hotter than expected with the MVP-caliber season by Reyes and the rejuvenation of Beltran. The pitching staff is suspect at best and now that they are in fire sale mode, I don't think they hit my projection even though they are on pace to beat it.

Then: Next year I see the Nationals as a 500 ballclub depending on the development of Bryce Harper. This year though the rotation is without Strasburg. The rotation isnt as bad as other clubs, and theres some offensive talent there in Werth and Zimmerman but i just dont see it all coming together this year. The development and rehab of several young players will go a long way toward a better Nationals team

Now: This year they are a .500 ballclub. Id hate to think what this team will be like if Jayson Werth actually hit the ball, Bryce Harper is up in the bigs blowing kisses at Roy Halladay, and the flamethrower himself Strasburg is back and healthy. I think they totally mistreated Riggleman, but somehow the team is surviving. The future is looking up in Washington.

All in all I think I have done well so far this year. 7 of my 8 projected playoff teams are all in the appropriate spots (Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, Giants, Brewers, Braves, and Phillies) and the Twins may still make it out alive. If i was allowed one mulligan i would of course switch out Minnesota for Detroit.

I think the AL gets a fun ALCS with the Red Sox and Rangers and the NL gets the NLCS everyone wants in the Phillies and Braves. Rangers Phillies World Series with the Rangers avenging last year's loss in style by abusing Cliff Lee who was down right terrible in the World Series last year.