Exxxxxxxxtreme Limits

So I am running in my second consecutive The Relay in a week and while running and other extreme sports don't have a ball, I'm making an exception for many of the following extreme events. Don't worry, the second half talks about balls again, so you'll get your fill dear reader.

For those that don't know, The Relay is a 12 person running relay that starts in Calistoga, California about 25 miles north of Napa, and runs south for 194 miles to Davenport, California. Each person takes turns running a leg varying from around 4 miles (there are few that are shorter) up to 8 miles at the longest. Each person runs 3 legs and the total mileage any one member runs varies from 12.6 to 18.5 miles. Of course the mileage doesn't quite reach marathon levels and I wouldn't call this an extreme event, it is definitely one of the toughest athletic events I've done, likely because I'm never properly trained going into it. But it is distinct from a marathon.

In a marathon, the amateur gets up in the morning after enough sleep, warms up adequately, and runs for 4 hours at a steady pace and is done. Definitely not easy (and something I may never try), but definitely different from The Relay. In The Relay you cram 6 people, and all their supplies into an 11 person van. Maybe you run right away or like this year you ride in a van for 4 hours before actually getting to run. Usually you get about 10 minutes maximum to stretch out and warmup. Then you hit the road at a pace much faster than if you were running a marathon because your leg is only 4.4 miles. It's 2:30pm in May, not the wonderfully cool 8 a.m. start you would normally get in a race. So you burn through your 4.4 miler in about 35 minutes. You are hot and sweaty, your legs feel a little tired, and you immediately hop back in the van to cheer on your other 5 runners in your van. Because you are in the second group of legs (7-12) your only chance to shower and sleep comes at 9pm with a deadline of midnight as you have to be back in place to run Leg 2. So with a couple hours of sleep and in the blistering wind at the south end of the Golden Gate Bridge you take off on a 7.0 mile leg at about 1 a.m, again running a pace much faster than a marathon because it's only really just another 10k plus a few extra laps around a track. You finish in about hour, sweating more than anyone should sweat on the San Francisco shoreline at 2am. Your legs are wobbly as you get in the van to cheer on your teammates until dawn. Once your van finishes its second set of legs you are sufficiently far enough away from any shower or soft bed that your only sleep recourse is in the crowded van in the morning. You only have the opportunity for a few winks (if any) as 10:30am rolls around and you have to somehow muster the energy to tackle 6.2 miles with no sleep since your 7 miler 9 hours ago, with 20 hours of van travel, and 11.4 miles of race pace already done. Your legs are shot. You've eaten an unhealthy amount of energy supplements. You want to shut your eyes and sleep for 12 hours. The sun is starting to shine bright as another May mid morning heats up in the Santa Cruz Mountains. You take the baton and run for the last time a full 10k as your legs feel like they are slogging through nearly set concrete. Everyone cheers you on but you hear nothing but the voice in your head telling you to quit with every struggling step. You make it to the end of your leg. In 21.5 hours you have covered 17.6 miles in more grueling conditions than any marathon, at a pace faster than you would run any marathon. 4 hours later your team finishes the 194 miles and you can barely muster up a light jog as you join the rest of your team in the customary team finish. You won't be able to run even a mile for the next 2-3 weeks without being excruciatingly sore.

Sounds terrible, no? Well what I just described is a preview of my part in The Relay this year and I wouldn't even think a split second about abandoning the challenge despite knowing how difficult it will be. It is a unique experience and when you finish there is such a great sense of accomplishment you want to go back out and doing it again next month. This sense of accomplishment and adrenaline rush you get from doing something so extreme and out of the ordinary is the driving force behind why people do the crazy shit they do in the name of athletics and personal accomplishment. In celebration of The Relay, let's survey some other extreme sports.

Let's stick with running. There is a race that is actually called the Badwater Ultramarathon. Already sounds terrible. It starts in Death Valley and goes to over 8000 feet up Mt. Whitney. The route is 135 miles. It starts July 16! Can you imagine running even 5 miles in Death Valley in mid-July? This is insane. You have a 48 hour time limit which means you still have to cover the distance at 21mins/mile or just a shade under 3 miles per hour. That wouldnt be easy do to if you just walked the course. Add in over 14000 feet of elevation gain and 130 degree temps and it's amazing anyone finishes at all. Did I mention if you run on the asphalt for too long your shoes melt in Death Valley (Notice the picture above, the runner is staying on the painted white line)? Well people do finish. One 60 year old man, Marshall Ulrich, has finished a record 16 times. Another man, even older at 69, has finished 13 times. Both finished last year. The winner last year did it in 23 hours and 41 minutes. 10 and half mins per mile. That's faster than a whole bunch of serious amateur runners would run 6 miles.  Unbelievable. Those men and women get my badass seal of approval.

How does underwater hockey strike you? This bizarre sport started in Great Britain in the 50's for divers during winter months when the weather was too cold outside for diving. Basically you strap on a snorkel and mask carry a little stick and try to maneuver a puck  on the bottom of a pool into the goal. I think of this as water polo without the ability to breathe. Water polo is extraordinarily difficult due to the amount of physical assertion you have to do above water. Imagine trying to do the same thing underwater without breathing. I think I would last maybe 10 total minutes in a game like that before I became so out of breath i was useless. Way to go swimmers and divers!

That not doing it for you? How about something called limbo skating? Apparently all the rage now in India, your goal is to skate underneath cars. Yes thats right. Skate undeneath a tiny ass car. Requiring an insane amount of balance, flexibility and strength it is no wonder that the world record was set by a 6 year old boy that practices 4 hours a day. At his lowest he is on skates a mere 8 inches off the ground. Just the ability to do that is extreme but with injuries occurring due to the slightest error this is one extreme sport.

And of course besides these you have your "run of the mill" standbys: skydiving, base jumping, cliff diving, free-running (parkour), bmx freestyle, river rafting, and of course the combo 7 Summit climb and ski. Davo Karnicar of Slovenia was the first man ever to climb the 7 Summits (highest point in each continent) and then ski all the way back down. I can't imagine the physical requirements of climbing Mt. Everest and then skiing down it but that guy is one extreme badass.

Obviously you aren't right in the head if you undertake a lot of these extreme sports, but the spirit of them transcends sports. It's about personal growth and an unbridled sense of achievement. In some ways it's no different than Dirk Nowitzki chasing his first NBA championship or Emmitt Smith breaking the career rushing yardage record. Those are extraordinary sense of accomplishments. But in another sense the traditional sports don't come close to what extreme sports try to accomplish. The growth of the human race and an expansion in the known physical limits of the human body are accomplished every day someone engages in these brutal physical trials. The Relay is my idea of extreme, but my hat goes off to each and every one of these extreme sports participants, they accomplish things ordinary humans don't.

 If that wasn't extreme enough to get you going, then I offer you a preview of the first round of the NBA playoffs which start this weekend. Before I get started, a couple of notes. I was asked by a number of people my opinion on the Ron Artest suspension. That makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside that people take my opinion seriously enough to ask. For the record, I think the punishment was appropriate. That elbow was nothing but malicious, and to be honest I don't think there is too much outcry that the punishment was too harsh. Given Artest's track record, I'm surprise he didn't get banned longer. I think had he broken Harden's jaw and removed Harden from the playoffs Artest would be gone too. I'll get to the impact his first round playoff suspension (minus game 7) will have later.

The other thing I want to note is that you need to throw the regular season out the window. It was a bizarre regular season, the final standings this year more than any other year is a poor reflection on the overall talent of the teams. Besides, the playoffs are a completely different beast, so don't be shocked by a number of upsets in the first round. Let's start in on the West.

(1) San Antonio v. (8) Utah

Utah is amazing. A team that continued to be written off all year, made the final push and stole the 8th seed away from Phoenix and Houston. Not that this should be a surprise, Utah has decent talent and it is finally coalescing together in this last month. Meanwhile, I can't believe San Antonio ended up being the #1. I don't even think they are that good. They lost to a big Memphis team last year as the #1 and I can see them losing to this big Utah team as well. Jefferson and Millsap are as capable as Randolph and Gasol were last year. If Harris continues his stellar play to counterbalance Parker I don't even think this is close. In April they split a home and home, with the home team winning each one. That doesn't bode well for Utah, they'd have to win this in 6 to win it at all. And thats what I am picking: Utah in 6.

(2) Oklahoma City v. (7) Dallas

Not sure anyone thought last year's WCF matchup would be rematched in the 1st round this year but that is how inconsistent Dallas has been this year. Don't get me wrong, I don't believe there is a single team in the West that I look at as definitely beating Dallas. That includes everyone's Western darlings the Thunder. OKC has been terrible in April, only beating one playoff bound team and losing to 7 others. Granted OKC has a 3-1 edge in the regular season on Dallas, but two of the losses were 50/50 games (including the Durant buzzer beater in December). Oklahoma City has talent, youth, and athleticism, but as this April showed they may not have the playoff chops yet. Losing the #1 seed to San Antonio was the definitive proof of that. Dallas on the other hand needs BIG defensive contributions from Brendan Wright, Ian Mahinmi, and Brendan Haywood to win this series. Letting Chandler go probably left a repeat for Dallas on the table, but, this team has been very strong defensively without him. If Dallas can get the offense going with their guards to take pressure off Dirk (who can't be covered by anyone in an OKC uniform) Dallas will win this series. They are the champs until beaten: Dallas in 7.

(3) LA Lakers v. (6) Denver

For my money I think LA is as talented as any team in the West. They aren't deep but a starting five of Session, Kobe, Artest, Gasol, and Bynum is a very good starting five. Maybe the best in the conference. Of course they lose Artest for this series and they aren't very deep behind. But I think Barnes can do his best thug impression of Artest and hold down the fort against Denver. Besides I think the loss of Artest's perimeter D is overblown. As we saw last year, Kobe is capable of shutting down any guard when he wants to. (Ex. A: Chris Paul, round 1). Denver has a lot of good pieces but no real killer. It also doesn't have a lot of significant playoff experience as key components of this team, especially in the front court (Faried, Mozgov, and McGee). I think the Lakers expose them in that area and run away with this one, without Artest. LA Lakers in 5.

(4) Memphis v. (5) L.A. Clippers

This one is a no brainer for me. Everyone loves the high flying show of the Clips, and Paul is one of the best if not best clutch players in the game right now. But they run into a Memphis team that finished the way I expected, with a homecourt advantage in round 1. They are a very solid team up and down. They have good size, and the best defense in the Western Conference. They survived a Randolph injury and they are peaking as much as any team in the West right now. Meanwhile the Clippers have shown a propensity to meltdown on occasion and if they get off to a poor start in the first couple of games they don't strike me as a team that will be resilient. It's cool to see them in the playoffs but this is a one and done year for them. Memphis in 5.

Moving to the East

(1) Chicago v. (8) Philadelphia

This could be the most boring playoff series ever. Both teams give up less than 90 points a game. Once upon a time Philadelphia was sitting pretty at the 3 seed and was looking like a solid young team. Then everything fell apart on offense and they just can't seem to score anymore. They would have to fix that in a hurry to have any chance here. Doubtful. This is a great series for Rose to get back into the swing of things as I don't believe Philly poses any threat to Chicago. Chicago is way too deep and is probably more talented at every single position on the floor. Chicago in 4

(2) Miami v. (7) New York Knicks

Everyone seems to think this is going to be a tough matchup for the Heat because of the way New York is playing. Look this team didnt beat Miami all year, including a recent game where Carmelo scored 42. They don't have homecourt advantage and let's not forget they are playing against certifiable playoff killer in Dwyane Wade. New York may get 1 but expecting more is ludicrous. Miami in 5.

(3) Indiana v. (6) Orlando

I don't think this will be as big of a mismatch as everyone thinks it is. Sure Hibbert will have his way inside and Indiana has a very solid team, but Orlando has the ability to put up points in a hurry and Indy isn't exactly the best defensive team in the East. That being said, you dont simply lose Dwight Howard and then win a playoff series against a better team. Indy can score with the best of them in the East too and I think they will be too much. Maybe they lack real playoff experience but they are better than Orlando. Indiana in 6.

(4) Boston v. (5) Atlanta

This smacks of 7 games all over it. Atlanta actually has the better record, but by virtue of the rule that a division winner has to be at least a top 4 seed, Boston is the listed 4, while Atlanta is the listed 5, but Atlanta still gets homecourt. I think it's amazing and a testament to the team that Atlanta finished with the 4th highest record in the East despite losing Al Horford so early and for the whole season. They got a surprise boost from Kirk Hinrich this year which helped keep them afloat. The problem is they run into a Boston team that has been playing very well of late and knows this is the swan song for this current version of the Celtics.. On paper, Boston is still the more talented team, but not by much. Like I said this is as even of a matchup as we have in the playoffs this round. I don't see Boston losing or Atlanta winning a Game 7 even though it is in Atlanta. Boston in 7.

I think for my money the most fun series to watch besides my favorite Mavericks will be the Grizzlies/Clippers and Celtics/Hawks. I think those will be wildly entertaining. 

Americal League Preview Blog

Ed. Note: Life happens and sometimes you type something up tell yourself that you are going to imbed the pictures later then totally forget about it. I guess as I turn 30 im getting old man brain. Anyhow for posterity, the podcast associated with this was recorded March 25, and most of this article was written April 5-6th. As you can see i would change some of the predicted wins now if i could based on the fact the Bobby Valentine is indeed not going to last the year.

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Hey there boys and girls! We are back to review and predict the American League. All 3 parts of the mega baseball podcast are linked below by title: Please listen and enjoy!

AL Predictions
NL Predictions
Memo to Bud Selig


Let's get moving, again starting with the west coast:

Texas Rangers 98-64
Anaheim Angels 96-66
Oakland A's 77-85
Seattle 69-93

 For Texas, it represents another win improvement for the umpteenth consecutive year, but only by 2 over 2011. Honestly, it's hard to predict anything else. They return their entire offense from last year and 3/5s of their awesome rotation from last year. They replaced Ogando and Wilson with Darvish and Feliz. While it is tough to replace two all-star starters, Feliz has the pedigree and Darvish has the stuff. Maybe not this year completely, but with the expected growth of mid-20s guns Holland and Harrison I don't think Texas misses a beat. It will come down to the wire but i give the overall balance to the Rangers.

For Anaheim, every talking head's darling of the AL West, I am still skeptical about a couple of things. I don't know how reliable the offense will be this year. Sure they have Pujols now and he is the studliest studs, but relying on some combination of Wells, Hunter, Abreu, Kendrick, Aybar, etc....to produce on a consistent basis could be farfetched. Also, while they added Wilson to the staff, their back end pitching in the bullpen is still suspect. Needless to say though adding the bets offensive player of the last 10 years and an ever improving Cy Young candidate pitcher to your 25 man roster, you can expect a big jump in wins.

Oakland gutted its strength (pitching) by getting rid of Cahill, Gonzalez and Bailey and yet I still have them winning more than last year? First, I think they were unlucky, it is rare to see a team with a -34 run margin finish 14 games under .500. Second,and in correlation with the first, their offense can not be any worse than last year. They made the most interesting foreign signing in Yoenis Cespedes and who knows what they will get out of him. He rates as a 5 tool player but may need time to catch up to A's pitching. Regardless, if he can hit .220 and mash 25-30 home runs the A's will have something to cheer for. I dont think they are good, but i can definitely see improvement this year over last year.

Seattle blows. The only question is where King Felix will end up. This is such a young team offensively that there is hope for the future but not this year. One thing they seemed to do right is get rid of Pineda. He has been miserable in the spring and was shut down for 6 weeks at least before starting a single game for the Yankees. Good job Seattle!

Moving on to the AL Central:

Detroit Tigers 101-61
Chicago White Sox 81-81
Minnesota Twins 80-82
Kansas City Royals 75-87
Cleveland Indians 72-90

Baseball, Hot Dogs, Apple Pie, and Chevrolet. Worst. Commercials. Ever. Look, Detroit is a good team, they were in the final four last year, they signed Fielder to replace Martinez for the year. Do I think they are the best team in the AL? Mmmm probably not. I think they have a smoke and mirrors rotation that gets obscured by Verlander's greatness. Buuuuut, I think they also play in the worst division in baseball 2-5. Detroit will win this division by 20 games and that requires me to give them 101 wins, I dont think they are the best but I think they have the easiest road to the playoffs in all of baseball. Look for them in the ALCS again this year.

Chicago lost its fiery soul when Ozzie went to Miami and really this is simply a mediocre team. Mediocre pitchers (Peavy, Danks, etc..), mediocre bullpen (Thronton, Reed, etc...), mediocre offense (Konerko, de Aza, Rios, Dunn). But in the AL Central, mediocrity is excellent! Middle of the road team gets .500 record.

Minnesota was ravaged by injuries last year: Morneau, Mauer, and Span arguably 3 of their most valuable offensive players missed something like 1,300 games last year. They are all back and have reported a healthy spring. I think its hard to ask for pre-2011 levels from all 3 but it will be a big improvement over last year. I just worry about the rotation. Liriano has shown brilliance this spring for what it's worth, but the same old tired rotation of Pavano, Blackburn, Marquis just doesnt inspire confidence for me. They are also probably a middle of the road team.

Kansas City no longer cellar dwellers! They finished 4th last year and i think they can do it again. They have a blossoming offense and absolutely no pitching. They should be fun to watch this year, but in an offensive driven AL they will only get so far. 4 win improvement for you Kansas City!

Cleveland was one of the biggest shockers last year record wise and i think it was a fluke. I think they are terrible this year. There is hardly any real recognizable offense there (Santana and maybe Choo notwithstanding), and their staff relies on Ubaldo Jimenez recapturing one half of one season's worth of success and Justin Masterson continuing to grow. I think every other team in the division has more aggregate talent and that's why Bob Uecker will be downing a fifth every broadcast come May 15th.

Lastly the big bad beast, the AL East:

New York Yankees 96-66
Tampa Bay Rays 93-69
Boston Valentines 90-72
Toronto Blue Jays 84-78
Baltimore Orioles 69-93

The Yankees are older yet another year, and every time you think they are about to fall off a cliff they go and put up the best record in the AL. I'm not falling for it this year. I think enough of the AL East is significantly flawed that age isn't a factor here. They still have a monster lineup, they still have CC they still have a good bullpen they win the division. Thats it. I hate their guts but you can't argue with the consistency.

Tampa Bay has a very nice pitching staff and in the offense rich AL i think that translates into some good wins. Their offense doesn't change much other than BJ Upton being out for a few weeks and the return of Carlos .240 40 home runs Pena. I think they have a good amount of talent (despite what i thought was a compeletly fluky bullpen last year) and could win more than this and the division. But i'm not picking against New York.

The Red Sox can either win 90 because of their talent or lose 90 because Bobby Valentine was the worst managerial hire ever.  Bobby has already started his loud mouth this spring picking on everything from Jeter's postseason flip to Varitek beating up resident prissy boy Alex Gonzale to banning beer and chicken and making the team ride the bus during spring training. Boston is going to hate his guts come June 1. Bobby has carte blanche this year, but wouldnt be surprised if he got canned right after the season.

Toronto is everyone's super hyped team to be the sleeper in the East. Why? I don't get it. They sport a nice offense with Bautista, Lawrie, Johnson, Lind and Encarnacion, but that is still probably only good for 3rd best in their own division. Their rotation isn't any better with Romero, Morrow, super post hype sleeper Drabek, etc...I dont know why people think they can win 95 games and win the division or 90-92 to get a wild card. Nope. They can be happy with their 80-84 wins every year until the Red Sox inevitably implode.

Baltimore is just not good. One of the worst rotations in baseball and bunch of underachieving offensive players. In 2009 this would have been a super hyped offense with Markakis, Adam Dont Call Me Pac-Man Jones, JJ Hardy, Nolan Reimold, and Matt Wieters. This team was built to be good on offense in 2012 and everyone has just not quite gotten to the level many expected. Too bad, I have a soft spot for them and Cal Ripken, Jr. so I'd liek to see a return to prominence for them. But it isn't coming this year.

My selections for the playoffs are clear: Texas, Anaheim, Detroit, New York and Tampa Bay. Pretty status quo with last year and everyone's predictions this year. Texas takes out Detroit yet again in the ALCS setting up a World Series where they get revenge on Cliff Lee and finally win their first World Series in franchise history and become the first team to go to 3 straight World Series since thew Yankees won all 3 from 98-00. Not bad company. Enjoy the marathon everyone!

National League Preview Blog

Ed. Note: For posterity's sake the podcast was recorded on March 25, and this article was written on April 4th. 

National League opening day is Wednesday April 4, with a one game series between the defending champ St. Louis Cardinals and the revamped (in multiple ways) Miami Marlins. Much more interesting game than the Oakland/Seattle "regular season" games we were treated to last week. This seems as good of a time as any to do my National League preview. In fact, lucky reader, you get a double dose. The Two Guys and Mic podcast did a national league preview and you can enrich your ears and your mind by listening to that and supplementing it with my actual records predictions, since i spared my listeners a bunch of numbers. Check out and download the blog here:

http://snd.sc/HSBs5G

Remember to follow the blog @ifithasballs on Twitter!

As usual we will start with the west coast since left is best, and to counteract all that BS ESPN east coast bias.

National League West

San Francisco Giants 92-70
Arizona Diamondbacks 86-76
Los Angeles Dodgers 81-81
Colorado Rockies 75-87
San Diego Padres 70-92

San Francisco still returns at minimum the second most feared rotation in the national leagues behind Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner that single-handedly helped them win 86 games last year. In fact, winning 86 games was a semi-miracle given the atrocious offense displayed last season. If you have the second lowest runs allowed in the national league you shouldn't also have a negative run differential on the season. Hence why I think they were lucky to win 86. A regression to 80 would be expected if they were return the same offense, but they don't. The return of Buster Posey, and addition of Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan, as well as the expected slight growth of Brandon Belt should add all the offense the Giants need to add 6 wins to their total last year.

Nothing significant has changed from the Diamondbacks roster. It is a very solid team on offense and in the bullpen. In fact we have no idea where Justin Upton's ceiling is, its probably around Matt Kemp's current production. I can see a regression from Ian Kennedy and maybe even Daniel Hudson that causes them to lose a handful more games this year, but it will still be a good team that pushes for the playoffs one way or another.

The Dodgers made stories this offseason, but not for any player, only because they were sold for a whopping 2 billion dollars. We wont get into how ridiculous that number is considering one of the three assets they bought was a 50 year old rat trap of a stadium. It also doesn't affect this season, other than maybe the players get to deal with excitement around the team instead of gloom following the McCourt divorce last year. It didn't seem to affect their play as they won 82 last year. There is a decent chance that you will find both your Cy Young and MVP on this team in Kershaw and Kemp. The offense is decent for the division but i worry about that rotation, at least if they get a lead theyll keep it with an above average pen. They can push for the wild card but I think this division will be tough for them to crack.

The Rockies need pitching, 49 year old Jamie Moyer anyone? But their offense is likely the class of the division and just like the Rangers of old that leads to low to mid 70s win total. Playing in the National League I'll give their offense a greater advantage than if it was in the AL and give them the mid 70s.

San Diego lost its "slugger" for the first month (Carlos Quentin) and generally sports a bunch of 6-9 hitters in the entirety of their lineup. They also lost their set up man (Mike Adams), their closer (Heath Bell) and their ace (Mat Latos) to start this season. They always have the benefit of Petco Park keeping them in games by nerfing the other teams offense but you still have to score 1 run to win. 70 may be too high, but this Padres has a similar amount of talent to return near the 71 they won last year.

National League Central

Milwaukee Brewers 87-75
St. Louis Cardinals 83-79
Cincinnati Reds 82-80
Pittsburgh Pirates 79-83
Chicago Cubs 71-91
Houston Astros 58-104

The Brewers lost Prince Fielder, but they still made a couple of significant additions this offseason. First they got 50 more games of Ryan Braun. If he was out for those 50 games they'd be lucky to have a winning season this year. They also added a nice bat in Aramis Ramirez. While obviously not as talented or studly as Fielder, he is a very solid bat and should still provide Braun enough protection to let him do his thing. They have two great front of rotation pitchers(Grienke and Gallardo) and a great back end of the bullpen (Axford and K-Rod) that I think makes them the most complete team in the division and the clear frontrunners.

The Cardinals are also dealing with losses, this from Pujols and resident baseball "genius" fuckface manager Tony LaRussa. The Cardinals also made a solid replacement for Pujols in Beltran and are looking to get Adam Wainwright back this season as well. It's a solid National League team with a decent offense and one that will contend for the division again, despite losing Carpenter for an unknown amount of time.

For some reason everyone likes the Reds, I'm guessing because they acquired Latos from the Padres. Hope he has a season's worth of ice since Dusty will run him ragged. The offense can challenge for the best in the division with Bruce, Votto, and Phillips, but I just don't like rotation. You have to expect regression from Latos moving from Petco to Great America and I can't believe the Reds are still rolling Arroyo and super duper post hype sleeper Homer Bailey out there as their 3 and 4 in the rotation. Nothing about this team really feels like a winner to me.

Well this would be a seven game improvement for the Pirates who imploded post All-Star break last season. They didn't lose anyone decent and gain AJ Burnett for what its worth. There is a chance he could add a decent amount of talent to a National League rotation, but he's injured so who knows what they will get from him once he does come back around May. This win increase is due to weakening of the better clubs and the continued expected growth from their young bucks.

Chicago is in rebuilding and toxic asset removal mode. They've almost finished the second part, just gotta find a away to move Soriano. Theo Epstein has already called this a rebuilding year and there is no way they contend. 71 is what they won last year and it's what they get this year. I think they have an underrated rotation that will keep them in it, much like the Padres, but it's still a 90 loss season for sure.

Houston is easily the worst team in baseball, 58 may be too generous. Nothing of note to talk about here, moving on.

National League East

Washington Nationals 95-67
Philadelphia Phillies 90-72
Atlanta Braves 85-75
Miami Marlins 77-85
NY Mets 75-87

You're damn right the Washington Montreal Expos Nationals are going to win this division. They have the combination of pitching and offense needed to win this division. It starts with the return of Stephen Strasburg. The guy is a sabermetrics hard-on. Every rate stat you can think of he has obliterated in his short major league career. He was out with Tommy John most of last year but when he returned he looked great. There were no hiccups with soreness in the spring this year and despite the 160 innings cap he likely has its going to be 160 amazing innings. But the rotation isnt just Steve. They added Gio Gonzalez in the offseason and Jordan Zimmerman has a decent full season under his belt after his Tommy John. They also have some offensive talent. I fully expect Werth to bounceback and when Morse comes back from the DL he is a masher. I am adding a speculative value to Bryce Harper. I think he's up June 1 and I think he's Ryan Braun/Ryan Howard quality on his call-up. (Ryan Howard's call-up 22 home runs, 63 RBI in 88 games; Ryan Braun 34 home runs 97 RBI in 113 games in his). This team has a ton to like and not a ton to hate. They also have one of the deepest bullpens in the league. Go Expos!

The Phillies lost Oswalt and replace him with Vance Worley. For what it's what I hate Oswalt and the way he handled himself last year but he is better than Worley. They also have no idea when Ryan Howard or Chase Utley will be back this season. Both injuries are a a kind of wait and see thing. Utley's is his knee but it strikes me along the lines of Joe Mauer's leg problems last year. Losing Oswalt, Howard and Utley is quite significant. They are now rolling out a lineup that still has some talent in Victorino, Rollins and Pence, but i think Victorino and Rollins are regression cases and that threesome certainly can't hold down the offense without Utley or Howard or both. Sure they still have the likely best trio of starters in the NL in Halladay, Lee, and Hamels, that's why they win 90. But their losses in their roster is why they don't win the division.

Lost in the collapse of the Red Sox was the Braves equally ignominious collapse. Why no story? No beer and fried chicken that's why. I don't know what to think of this team. They are either very young or very old. I think that has the makings of another inconsistent season. You have such young guns as Tommy Hanson, Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy in the rotation with grayhair Tim Hudson. The rotation could be awesome or Hanson could get hurt and Beachy continues the inconsistency he showed this spring and Hudson finally falls off the cliff unable to recover from offseason back surgery. The lineup is the same: young guys in Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman and older than dirt Chipper Jones is still a vital component of the lineup. The Braves could run away with the division or lose 80 games, i wouldn't be surprised either way. I'm hedging and giving them 85 and missing the playoffs by 1 game...again.

Miami has all sorts of new looks. New first name, new logo, new stadium, new manager, new marquee infielder. I think if I was to pick a dark horse in this league to surprise it would be the Marlins. Picking the Nationals the win the division is bold but I'm not the only one picking them. Miami making the playoffs this year would be shocking. The addition of Jose Reyes to a rejuvenated and healthy Hanley Ramirez and young stud Giancarlo Stanton makes this a potent offense. Ozzie Guillen, for all his brashness, does get the best out of his guys and the rotation has some nice arms. Thats where it needs to come together for Miami. Josh Johnson is a stud when healthy but thats always plagued him in his career, Buerhle reunites with his manager from Chicago and gives Miami a quality arm. The question marks come from Zambrano (does change of scenery help?) Anibal Sanchez (can he finally find consistency that belies his talent?) and Ricky Nolasco (can he finally harnaess the command of his power stuff?). I don't think they do it this year, but it would not surprise me one bet if everything came together here.

If you listened to the podcast and then did your due diligence you realize that i changed my mind regarding the Mets. I said that NY and Miami would increase their win totals and then you now see me with New York regressing from last season. I've changed my mind because I've realized there is nothing about the Mets I like. Even Johan Santana coming back doesn't do anything for me. He was already regressing for years before missing all of last year. The offense lost Beltran and Reyes from last season and replaced them with Ruben Tejada and Andres Torres? The rotation outside of Jon Niese (who the Mets agree is a decent up and comer) makes me vomit a little. R.A. Dickey, Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee is not what I would want to comprise 3/5 of my rotation. Especially in a strong offensive division like this one. Even the bullpen is a mess with only Bobby Parnell pitching like a major leaguer. Sorry Mets, I retract my podcast statement. You will regress and it will be a long season for the blue and orange pinstripers.

Obviously my wild cards are the Phillies and Diamondbacks. I couldn't make a prediction on the podcast with who would win out of the National League and after reviewing it, I think I will take the easy way out and take the Phillies. Pitching wins and they have the most.

Stay tuned for the much more entertaining AL preview blog and podcast. Feel free to comment below and agree or disagree with my predictions. Just know this, the Washington Nationals are the best team record-wise in the NL by the end of the year. Am I stupid? Stupid like a fox.

Stop and smell the potpourri

Dont forget to follow the blog @ifithasballs on Twitter. 

So a month long hiatus should be making all my readers salivate at the thought of another column. Because i have been MIA for a while id like to recap the several top stories over the last month as well as my take on them.

But first, a special surprise for everyone. Podcast number 2 is now available regarding recent and not so recent rule changes in major league baseball that i think have had a negative impact on the game. So head on over to http://snd.sc/HvjPIc to download and listen to this 30 minute masterpiece. It is part 1 of a 3 part mega baseball podcast that will be released as the real start of the season takes place this week.

So as a nice segue into the potpourri, I was very disappointed with how major league baseball handled its "official" start of the season (even though ESPN is calling its April 4th Cardinals/Marlins broadcast opening night). In case you were sleeping, and most of us on the west coast were, Major League Baseball played its first official game of the 2012 season at 3am PST in Japan. I made a big deal about this at the time and it wasn't taken well, mostly responses of "who cares?" and "its not that big of deal". Well with baseball as my favorite sport I would love to see the same fanfare about the first official games as we see in football and basketball. I understand that baseball ratings are dominated by football and marquee basketball matchups, but that is really my point. Baseball needs to find a way to spark interest again, and the best way to do that is with a grand opening every season. I don't mind teams playing games overseas and trying to grow an already international sport further, but when you are likely number 3 in your own country the focus needs to start there.

That was what made me so upset in the first place. I couldn't enjoy the first game of the season because major league baseball was pandering to a foreign market. Not only did they ignore its own domestic market, but they scheduled it in such a way as to make Dr. Seuss with all his craziness scratch his head. So, Oakland and Seattle play 2 official games a full week before anyone else. That's ok, I guess, ruins any momentum you may have built up but the travel back from Japan makes sense. But wait, Seattle and Oakland after starting their regular season goes back into spring training mode and play multiple exhibition games again. In fact they played exhibitions 2 days after their second official game, meaning these games didn't need to start a full week ahead of everyone else.

But, who cares? Even if they did schedule the start to the season in such a way that any semblance of logic to it, it's the Mariners and A's, two bottom feeding smaller market baseball teams that haven't been relevant for years and only sport 2 or 3 recognizable players. This is true, this was the final straw in Bud Selig's idiotic start to 2012. Baseball could a take a lesson from basketball, especially basketball's Christmas day extravaganza this year. Basketball needed an instant boost following an ugly lockout that created a fraudulent season, so they packaged up 5 games that was a ratings bonanza to spark interest. One of the few smart things basketball did this year. Here's how baseball could have done this right:

March Madness ends today, the Masters starts Thursday, and basketball and hockey are still just far enough from their stretch runs that there isn't an end of season buzz building yet. So you take Tuesday and Wednesday and make it your opening day(s) bonanza with at least 5 buzz worthy games: A NYY/BOS game or BOS/TB to capitalize on the collapse, a TEX/LAA game to showcase Pujols as an Angel and kick start one of the most interesting division races of the year, a PHI/STL game for an NLCS rematch, a SF/LAD to capitalize on the west coast rivalry and showcase Lincecum and Kershaw two of the top 5 pitchers in the game and if you go with BOS/TB a NYY/DET ALDS rematch, also with Sabathia and Verlander showing down in Yankee stadium with the added bonus of Prince Fielder's first game as a Tiger. All of the sudden you have just involved the New York, Boston, Philadelphia, LA (x2), Dallas, San Francisco, Detroit, St. Louis markets, which comprise 9 of probably the 10 biggest baseball markets (Chicago left out) on opening day with any number of compelling players and storylines on screen. That is how you spark enthusiasm for a new season and generate some momentum. Don't worry Bud, you can take the idea. I give it to you free of charge, just please use it.

Speaking of March Madness, it was a usual mix of the rich staying rich, and some neat upsets. It is hard to enjoy it though. With the exception of Kentucky most teams underperformed big time, and even Kentucky isn't as fun to watch as they should be. For as dominant of a team as Kentucky has been in the 80s and 90s this team would have grown for 3 years and been regarded as one of the most dominating teams of all time. Now they are just a super athletic bunch of kids who happen to be better than everyone else because the talent pool isn't as great. A great example was the Kansas/Ohio State final four game. Those two teams are awful compared to a decade ago, and it created one of the ugliest and boring close final four games ever. While I really enjoyed back to back 15 seed victories over Missouri and Duke, this tournament has been kind of a bust for me. Commentators have been taking about it for a few years and even coaches like Jim Boeheim agree, that the talent level is just far worse than 10 years ago and i think for the first season i really agree. Too bad because March Madness is one of my top 5 favorite sporting events.For the record, Kentucky can't lose this game. Even if Kansas' D steps up like they have against UNC and Ohio State, Kentucky has the D to match it, especially against a pathetic offense like Kansas'. No chance for Rock Chalk Jayhawk.

So shifting gears to the NFL, the big news involves a Peyton and a Payton. Peyton Manning was released as expected by the Colts and went on a fun little recruiting trip around the country, visiting and working out for the Cardinals, Broncos, Dolphins, and 49ers and ultimately making what is likely the best choice of those four teams: the Broncos. My dream team for him was Houston. Dome, he knows the division like the back of his hand, it's the AFC, and despite losses in the defense Houston has a lot of talent in a weaker AFC. They have Schaub but both he and Peyton are questionable in terms of health at this point, and if I am rolling with a damaged QB its Peyton over Schaub any day. But Denver was a good choice. It's a soft division, it's a solid offense and spectacular defense meaning Peyton may not have to drop back 40 times a game and he was able to force out Tebow in the process making Denver his and his alone. Depending on his recovery and assimilation i can see Denver winning 10-12 games and being a contender for a top seed. You can never count out Pittsburgh (aging defense), New England (no defense), or Baltimore (Flacco) but they all have as many holes as Denver does now so it is anyone's game.

This does mean that Tebowmania is over in Denver and moves to the biggest media whore of the NFL, the New York Jets. I think this spells the end of both Sanchez and Tebow's careers. Sanchez will not be able to handle Tebowmania and Tebow once he gets the start there wont be able to handle the New York media. It's sad, it would have been neat to see him go back home and play for Jacksonville where he could have grown as a QB or in Miami where he could've been a savior for a once proud franchise. 

During this process, a story broke of a long running "bounty" system within the Saints defensive group awarding money for a variety of things but the most egregious of which was paying money for injuring a player causing him to be removed from the game or removed from the field on a cart. The bounty system was supposedly an idea of then defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. My first thought on this was "yeah and?" Bounties have been around forever and i would expect nearly all defenses in the NFL to have some sort of bounty system, even involving rewards for injuries. In our concussion weary NFL the idea that defensive players are out there to hit so hard they hurt players makes the league wince at first. But, the reality is hard hitting is integral to playing defense. Obliterating a receiver going over the middle accomplishes any number of things. Dislodging the ball, making the receiver more tentative in the future, reducing his physical capacity either by dinging him up or actually taking him out of the game. If a safety had a clean shot and hit Calvin Johnson over the middle so hard that he had to sit out for a play, a series, or the rest of the game, I think he'd be congratulated by teammates and coaches and proud of himself. Besides scheming, extraordinary physical contact is important to good defense. It's football, people get hurt, and no matter how much Goodell wants to, he'll never legislate it out of the game.

To be clear, if the facts are what they were publicly, that the Saints basically gave the middle finger to the NFL by ignoring requests to affirmatively shut down the bounty system, then the punishment is fine. It's more of an administrative thing, than a bounty thing. Apparently, every punishment (Sean Payton's 1 year suspension, GM Mickey Loomis' 8 game suspension, Asst. Coach Joe Vitt's 6 game suspension, The Saints being fined half a million and losing 2nd round picks in 2012 and 2013) is under a appeal, but considering the appellate judge is the same guy that issued the suspensions in the first place, pretty sure the punishments stand. But honestly, I think this is more about the Saints flipping off the NFL than the bounty program. They existed before and they will exist again, albeit in much more secret this time around.

As mentioned earlier the Masters starts this week, and even if you dont play golf and think watching golf is as stupid as Bud Selig's opening day plans the Masters is always a unique experience, usually because it's the only Major event played at the same spot, and because that course is among the most beautiful in the world. Further it is harder to make it into the Masters field and the Green Jacket award for winning is among the most recognizable along with the Lombardi Trophy and The Stanley Cup. What makes this Masters compelling is the reemergence of Tiger Woods. He dominated Arnold Palmer's tournament two weeks ago and having watched all of the final round he looks very good. Further, many big name players are playing good golf. Mickelson has had a decent start to this season, Rory McIlroy is tearing up the European tour with 4 top 5 finishes in his 4 starts this year. Rory is also seeking a way to erase the epic collapse from last year's Masters.

This is setting up what many want to see: a showdown between Rory and Tiger. I would love to see it and I would love to see Tiger smash him good. I never wavered in my opinion that Tiger could make it back and will win 5 more majors to pass the Golden Bear Jack Nicklaus, and the win two weeks ago puts Tiger back in everyone's mind and made all the talking heads conveniently forget that they wrote him off for dead. If nothing else, watch this Masters to see an ultra competitive Tiger try to blow away everyone at Augusta. Rory is fun to watch, but neither he nor anyone else will ever be Tiger when Tiger is playing well. I expect it this week.

It's good to be back, please comment below and enjoy the podcast!