Where'd I put that fork?

(Ed. Note: I wrote this the night of Miami's Game 4 loss. A Post Script below addresses Game 5)

Lets get this out of the way: The Miami Heat are done. Everyone wearing a black and red jersey in Miami has one of these sticking out of their backs: 

Last post I wrote that the Spurs would win in 6. This was a mistake for two reasons, 1) I forgot that the Finals format was now 2-2-1-1-1 instead of 2-3-2. Spurs in 6 would have them winning in Miami (like they should have done last year) and 2) I grossly overestimated the Heat's roster despite giving them only marginal credit to begin with. 

As I said last week, this season pits a team that should have won in 6 and had a good shot to win in 7 that got better versus a team that clearly got worse. But how much worse was unknown. I said the Heat went through nobodies to get to the Finals and its bearing itself out in these Finals. No one could really know how good this team was playing playoff novice Charlotte, beyond over the hill New Jersey, and they need to be committed to a mental ward (or maybe just Stephenson) Indiana. 2 of those teams would not have even made the Western Conference final 8 if you factor in the switch in schedules as well. Well, San Antonio is showing us what the Heat were, an aging, tired team, with the world's greatest player. They are slowly morphing into that 2007 Cavaliers team that LeBron put on his back and hiked to the Finals before getting housed by San Antonio. 

Lets investigate the warts that have been uncovered. Dwyane Wade is breaking down. Plain and simple. If you can't bring it physically in the NBA Finals after missing nearly 30 games on a "maintenance" schedule and playing 15 of some of the least grueling playoff games ever to prelude a Finals appearance it's time to transition your game. Dwyane can't cover anyone and that's the start as to why San Antonio is crushing it on offense at a historic level. People forget how important Dwyane was to the team defense. You didn't just have one perimeter defender than can go man on ball without help, you had two. It set the tone for the entire defensive set. Instead of help defenders rotating off to help Wade now as he's getting passed by anyone wearing silver and black, the other defenders could stay home. You've seen how much ball movement has left Miami's usually staunch half court defense in disarray. Watch how bad he is on defense now. You don't have to go any farther than 1:30 into the video before you find Danny Green -- DANNY GREEN -- abusing him on a baseline drive forcing rotating help.

Ok fine, he's loafing on defense so he can contribute on offense, because you've gotta score to keep up  with this version of the Spurs, right? Wrong. Go back to that video. Almost as glaring as the defensive mishaps pointed out by that glorious green arrow is Dwyane Wade's poor offense setting up his poor defense. Dwyane was a much different player in 2011 when he would've been Finals MVP if Miami didn't get beat by the better team. Dwyane Wade now needs to become what Manu Ginobili is, what Jason Terry reinvented himself as: The 6th Man. Blasphemous, maybe, but those 28 games off, and the craptacular performance so far in 4 games against a good team says otherwise. 

Dwyane can clearly alter a game in spurts, especially against a second unit. Ginobili and Terry have done it for years with less physical gifts than i assume Dwyane still possesses. But Dwyane has been asked to play 33,  34, 36, and 33 minutes. That is too many. This isn't meant to be a slight on Wade even though I despise him when he was basically given any foul shot he wanted in the 2006 Finals, this is just reality for a player who is 32 years old and has nearly 12 full seasons on his body, playoffs included. He played hard in his career and he's paying for it now. But this is something he needs to recognize and accept, he's not a starter anymore. Especially going forward. Which actually makes this offseason interesting. More on that later. 

Wart number two is Mario Chalmers. People have been blasting this kid these Finals. Historically bad numbers for a starter, horrible fouls (his elbow flagrant at San Antonio in Game Two should've made this a sweep), and general lack of basketball acumen for four games. I'm going to reverse course on him. I never thought he was any good. When you are the fourth, sometimes fifth best offensive player on the court for your team, its not hard to carve out a little niche as a wide open three point shooter. He's never been a guy that made anyone on the floor better. But here's whats happening: Dwyane Wade is getting exposed and Chris Bosh has been relegated to something like an overgrown Mike Miller. This is putting the spotlight on Chalmers to both make something happen offensively  and contribute defensively. He was never a good offensive player so that is out of the question and defensively he used to be the stay at home guy on perimeter players when people would drive and kick on James or Wade. He can't play man on ball defense at all and its why Parker and even Patty Mills is abusing him. I don't blame Chalmers. He was never good, but he's been the best Miami has been able to grab at Point Guard since Bosh and James came to town. Life was good when your'e the fourth or fifth option on offense grabbing open looks off a James or Wade drive and playing stay at home on the spot up shooter defense while James and Wade go man on ball. Chalmers, your time is up as a starter. You'll be a backup somewhere next year. 

Wart number three is Chris Bosh. This one isn't really his fault either. Or maybe it is. Chris Bosh came to Miami from Toronto as a jack of all trades freak on offense at the Power Forward spot. He was a lot like Dirk Nowtizki if Dirk could play above the rim but without the need to shoot outside so much. He could shoot the three and posterize people.  When you watch that replay you see a lot of isolation and dribble drive from Bosh. Something that LeBron and Dwyane did at least equally as well, but probably not better. So what room was there for Bosh in that half court offense? The truth is there was none. 

Bosh chose the path of the ring over the stardom. It's a choice we all say we would make if we were athletes and the one we always want our best to make, but deep down I think we make it too easy on ourselves. Watch those highlights again. That is not the Chris Bosh people know. People have forgotten what Chris Bosh might have been if he chose to maybe be the first or second banana on a team with some skill, a la Chicago instead of Boozer, or even New York instead of Amare. So from that perspective, what Chris Bosh has become as a man who is a spot up shooter when the dribble drive breaks down the defense is somewhat his fault.

But, I'm not going to exonerate Spoelstra. I think this season was a fantastic opportunity to unleash Bosh again. LeBron and Wade were going through maintenance and in some cases just mailing in games during the regular season. Bosh was 29 this year and easily had the least mileage on his legs compared to James and Wade. Spoelstra instead makes Bosh his new Mike Miller. Bosh never had more than 21 3s made in a season before this year. In the regular season this year? 74! I refuse to believe Bosh has lost those physical gifts you saw on that video. Instead Bosh refuses to assert himself, content to be 3rd banana while Wade breaks down and Spoelstra relies too much on what worked 3-4 years ago. Why is Popovich successful after 15 years with aging superstars? Because he changed. He changed his offensive and defenseive philosophies with the times and his personnel. Spoelstra just went through the motions of what has worked since 2012. This series could be very different if Bosh was made 2nd banana from the outset this year. Duncan and Parker almost feel invisible from these Finals because the other guys are stepping up so big. 

The last wart is that bench. Battier, Haslem, James Jones. These guys used to swing games on their own. Now they are invisible. Meanwhile, Patty Mills, Diaw/Splitter, and the immortal Manu Ginobili are carving up the Heat in both first team and second team sets. Why? Because Popovich played them all 20+ mins a game in the regular season. These aren't guys who are being inserted to try to find a spark. These are seasoned veterans. The Heat got by the last few years with a number of bench specialists. But they are failing now. This is the easiest cure for Miami, but based on the first three warts it won't matter. 3/5 of Miami's starting lineup is playing well below what we've seen before and there is nothing to indicate it won't continue. Miami's lack of bench production is compounding those first three problems.

So, stick a fork in them they are done. But, to make this a little more light-hearted let's play some what-ifs. 

1. What if the Big Three opt out of their contracts and then re-sign for less to make room for Carmelo?

I fail to see how this strategy helps Miami. Sure you get Carmelo to help with the scoring load, but that hasn't exactly been the problem in Miami. It's the waning team defense. Carmelo offers no help in that department. The only way this strategy helps is if Dwyane takes a humongous pay cut to 6th man status, and Bosh and Lebron take big cuts to allow Miami to rebuild their depth. Because, honestly, I do not see Carmelo making it cheap on Miami. If this happens and everyone re-ups for 2-3 more years with the addition of Carmelo, you might see the Heat in the Finals one or two more times because of the sheer incompetence of the East, but that is far from a championship team. 

2. This was a fun one I made up with a friend the other day. What if Duncan retires after winning this championship and LeBron decides to fill the void in San Antonio?

Couldn't this be a mtach made in heaven. LeBron gets to a competent organization that knows how to adapt to the times and personnel, and knows how to cultivate role players. Teh run a such a precision passing offense now that LeBron would fit right in. He'd upgrade what is not the most stellar defense and, while Ginobili has very little left down the road, Parker and Leonard plus role players and Popovich form a very formidable contender. If this scenario were to ever happen I actually think LeBron could win more championships in San Antonio than he's going to win in Miami. This scenario isn't as far fetched as it sounds, if LeBron is serious about getting the rings.

3. What is LeBron opts out and goes to Cleveland?

Well, I guess Cleveland would be a contender in the East again, but why go play with the babies? Kyrie has never won anything and whoever they pick first will have been eliminated in the first or second round of the NCAAs in their only meaningful postseason experience.  Plus, Cleveland has proved less than competent in rebuilding themselves since LeBron left four years ago. All they have to show for it is no playoffs and 3 #1 overall picks. LeBron would be crazy to go there, even if it is a homecoming and the path back to the Finals is paved with gold in the East. 

Also, what happens to Bosh and Wade? If LeBron opts out, you have difficult choices. Wade will not make nearly as much money anywhere else if he opts out. Also who knows how many more years he has. Wade has to stay. But, what about Bosh? Stay and re-reinvent yourself? Become the alpha Heat? Without LeBron, the Heat are 7th in the East, at best. LeBron opting out would make Bosh one of the top free agents, again, and several contenders and would be contenders could go after him. Despite being relegated to Mike Miller status, he could actually command a bigger payday than he is getting now. 

4. What if all three refuse to exercise their ETO?

In all likelihood the Heat would go back to their fifth straight NBA Finals, second all time to the Celtics who did it 10 times when there were like 5 teams in the 50s-60s and none of them had a huge black guy named Bill Russell. But it wont be easy.  The East is just that bad. With only Norris Cole under contract next year, Miami will have to rebuild around another 5 very cheap but reliable bench and role players with limited resources. The good news is they can basically push the role player reset button around Wade, Bosh, and LeBron. This gives them a great advantage. But I think to win it all again they would need to reevaluate how they use Wade and Bosh going forward.

POST SCRIPT

Last night was inevitable and further proves my point that Miami has more issues than just Dwyane Wade. There was one possession where Miami had the ball and Tony Parker was defending Chris Bosh. Bosh didn't get one look on that possession. Miami has to reevaluate how they play offense. They need to get more defensive wing specialists too. For my money of those 4 options above I think all three will remain in Miami to chase yet another Finals appearance.

Congratulations to the Spurs and I am especially proud of my Mavericks for pushing the eventual champs to the brink and giving them their toughest series in the playoffs. Now the offseason fun begins with Miami's three, Carmelo, and some other noteworthy pieces up fro free agency this offseason.

Like a phoenix I rise from the ashes...

A year hiatus is long enough don't you think? Having a kid is a great experience I wouldn't trade for the world but priorities certainly shift and time becomes even more of a premium than before. Looking back it appears my last post was about the 2013 NBA Finals, makes sense I should make a comeback during the 2014 NBA Finals. In order to knock the rust off, I'll do a rapid fire potpourri regarding a number of different fun story lines that have recently occurred. I'm happy to back, hope you're happy to have me back. 

BASKETBALL

This is a 2 for 1. We get the Heat and Spurs again for our first Finals rematch since Bulls/Jazz in the 90s. I think this was the result we were inexorably traveling towards since about March. It was clear at that point the Pacers were too flawed in some regard (coaching, mental toughness, locker room?) and that the rest of the East wasn't good enough to hold the Heat's collective jock strap. Meanwhile the Spurs were cruising towards the best record in the NBA and even though OKC had swept San Antonio 4-0 in their season series this year, no one in San Antonio was panicking. After all, the playoffs are a whole different ball of wax. We know what happened next: The Heat basically steamrolled through the East. The Spurs had to battle hard to beat one of the greatest 8th seeds the NBA has ever seen, took advantage of a young team that didn't know what they were doing, and took care of business against the Thunder, including beating them twice when they had Ibaka, and winning the series in Oklahoma City, which was basically the Spurs' House of Horrors for the last few seasons. 

For the NBA this was about as good of a series as they could hope for. I wrote about this last year and I'm sticking by it even more, I think the NBA is suffering through more of a talent drain than most experts think. This playoffs you were looking at maybe 4.5 viable championship teams our of a league of 30. The Eastern Conference had 1.5: the Heat and the Pacers. The Heat were obvious, but the Pacers were a contender until they inexplicably self-destructed for no good reason other than Danny Granger got traded? The East was terrible. In the West, even though the teams were much better there were only 3 real contenders: San Antonio, OKC, and the Clippers. Houston is fatally flawed on defense, Portland is fatally flawed on defense and with experience, Golden State was missing their key interior defender, Memphis couldnt score, and Dallas lacked just enough defense to get them over the hump. 

Look at where all the best players in the league are: Lebron James, Chris Paul, Tim Duncan, Blake Griffin, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, Paul George. Sure you have some outliers like Steph Curry, Carmelo Anthony, LaMarcus Aldridge, James Harden, and Kevin Love, but most of the All-NBA talent is confined within the 4.5 championship contenders. The league is a long way from parity and guys liek Embiid, Wiggins, and Parker are going to be mired on terrible eastern conference teams and none of them have the ability or pedigree of a Lebron James to simply will their team to the NBA Finals. The NBA is in trouble from a excitement perspective and there is no end in sight. 

For posterity's sake I have the Spurs in 6, assuming Tony Parker's health. Thats basically what it was last year when the Heat had home court advantage if not for just small amount of bad luck and poor execution at the end. Now the Spurs have homecourt (if you dont think that matters for such a veteran team I direct you to the OKC series Games 1-5), Manu Ginobili looks much healthier and spry coming into this series and I think San Antonio's bench will run circles around the Heat's bench. All of this is enough to make up the difference from last year and give San Antonio another title. 

In a victory for the NBA, they were finally able to justify the ouster of one of the most onerous and team-unfriendly owners in all of professional sports: Donald Sterling. This was long overdue and had he engaged in his housing discrimination during the social media era he would have been out back in the 90s. He was notoriously cheap and enjoyed running a terrible product out there every year. He lucked into Chris Paul and Blake Griffin and Doc Rivers and it gives me a small sense of satisfaction that he wont be around to enjoy actual success. Sure he gets to split 2 billion with his equally onerous "wife," which is more like 1.4 billion after capital gains taxes, but the league and sports world is a better place without him. 

And for you First Amendment "scholars" and to Mark Cuban who was equivocating on whether hed vote Sterling out, the First Amendment is a protection from interference by the government. When you are a key member of a business and you hurt not only the business as a whole but the other 29 business partners you pay the price. Sterling couldn't stay. The Clippers would have been an economic drain on the league until he left. So while Adam Silver did the easy thing in immediately canning him, it also doubled as the right thing. Good job NBA, now work on a scenario where more teams are competitive. 

SOCCER

World Cup is here!! I don't follow soccer that regularly, though I do follow international things such as WC Qualifying, Gold Cup, etc..and the World Cup is far and away my favorite sporting event, beating out the Summer Olympics (#2) and March Madness (#3). The pageantry, patriotism, and  fanaticism in the World Cup far outstrips the Summer Olympics and the talent level and skill far outstrips those competing in March Madness. 

In case you've been living under a rock, the U.S National Team drew probably the toughest group of the 8 having to play world ranked #2 Germany and #3 Portugal, as well as a Ghana team that has eliminated them in each of the last two World Cups, though isn't expected to be as good this year. Also, the most iconic American player Landon Donovan was left off the initial World Cup roster. Clearly the general public was disgusted by the idea that he would be left off, but American fans need to place their trust in Manager Jorgen Klinsmann. He has been very successful in every coaching stop including as the US coach with historic wins inside Estadio Azteca in Mexico City and against Italy in Italy. He knows what he's doing. The warm up friendlies thus far have borne this out as the US has won its first 2 of 3 home soil friendlies scheduled in advance of the World Cup including a victory over a Turkey squad which hadn't lost in a year. Unfortunately, I think the defense is bad enough that they won't be able to secure the win against Ghana and draws against Portugal and Germany they'll need to advance. But it won't be because Landon Donovan was left off. 

For posterity's sake, I think the final four standing will be Brazil, Germany, Argentina and Uruguay (sorry Spain) with a Brazil/Argentina final and Argentina walking away with the golden trophy. The world's best player (Lionel Messi) in his prime on one of the world's best teams (Argentina) with a near home field advantage will be enough to overcome a powerful Brazil side that does have home field advantage. Those semi final games will be fantastic, especially the Brazil/Germany one I predict will happen. Either way there are some great teams, great players, and great excitement ahead in what is the best sporting competition out there. Sit back and enjoy!

FOOTBALL

The NFL Draft, the most "exciting" event in the offseason, came and went last month. While I enjoy seeing where some of my favorite-to-watch college football players go, as well as what idiotic things the Cowboys will do this year, actually watching even the 1st round of the draft is horrible. I just cannot stand the cadence by which Mel Kiper talks, I cannot stand Chris Berman stumbling over his words or awkwardly trying to fill in random gaps of silence, and I cannot stand Jon Gruden creaming his pants over every QB. The only entertaining part was the unintentional comedy of Ray Lewis offering "analysis" on draft picks. "This guy's is a player," or "this guy can flat out player," or "this guy is a difference maker." Why is Ray Lewis even there? I dont really know how to make something better when it simply consists of waiting in 10 minute increments for Roger Goodell to announce a name while a few drunk football fans in Radio Music City Hall boo or cheer. Meh. You can do better NFL, I trust you.  

As for the draft itself, I absolutely think the Texans made the right decision taking Clowney. He was unfairly panned his junior year for what was obviously a half-assed effort because he didn't want to tear an ACL a la Aaron Murray or Zach Mettenberger (who i think would've been a 2nd round QB if not for that tear after all was said and done.) Also he had very little help from his defensive teammates. As Gruden correctly pointed out, when someone made the mistake of not double teaming him he caused havoc. The Texans offense wasn't an issue last year, it was the defense. To pair him with an equally talented DL who causes havoc by himself will be a great asset. 

If Jacksonville wasn't intent on starting their rookie QB why take him #3 overall when hes not a fantastic prospect. I dont have an opinion one way or another on Bortles other than he was obviously very good in college for a mediocre team. But for a team in need of a million playmakers and one that has stated they will not start Bortles if they can help it why not choose someone else like Khalil Mack and then get a 2nd round QB? Didn't make a lot of sense to me. Jacksonville will be in London or LA before we know it. 

Johnny Football. First, thank god he didn't get drafted by the Cowboys. That would've been too much and obviously a waste of a pick. I watched a lot of Johnny Football being a Florida and SEC fan (yay SEC Network!!!) and he's not an NFL QB. I'm sorry. People make claims like well he did eviscerate Alabama twice, to which I said, so did Tebow, and Alabama, especially this year was not their usual great defensive team. He can prove people wrong but he has a lot of things going against him: his size (this isn't thick ass Russell Wilson we're talking about), his mechanics (lousy), and his football IQ (non-existent, Texas A&M didn't have a playbook!) Jaworski was actually right on about something, he was not a first round talent, he was better suited to the 3rd or 4th where there wouldn't be the pressure to get him in right away. 

The rest of the first round: I really liked what New Orleans did basically replacing Sproles with Brandin Cook. Be true to yourself, New Orleans makes the playoffs every year with its offense, you don't know how long you'll have Brees so take advantage. San Francisco made a great pick, notwithstanding whatever might happen with Aldon Smith, and Navarro Bowman's injury, San Francisco needed to improve that secondary. As i said to one of my many 49er fan friends you gotta love a safety/nickel corner that lead his team in tackles. He's a tough nosed player that will fit right in immediately. While I imagine a lot of Raiders fans would've loved to see Watkins in silver and black I loved the Mack pick. Oakland is quietly building a decent team especially on defense. Urban Meyer, Ohio State coach, said the best defensive player he played against was Khalil Mack, who played for a small school. Meyer picked him over every other decent Big 10 defensive player he saw that year. Good job Oakland, you are slowly reinventing yourself for the best.

I obviously didn't like Cleveland's taking Johnny Football, but I didn't like their first pick of Gilbert either. You are already sitting on Joe Haden, you need front 7 help and Aaron Donald out of Pitt is still sitting there to anchor your D line. Future still looks bleak in Cleveland. Buffalo sold the farm for Sammy Watkins, a fantastic player to watch at Clemson, one of my favorite, but he's the type of luxury you sell the farm for if he makes you a contender. Buffalo had more warts that another multifunction Clemson weapon like CJ Spiller wont be able to fix. Good job Dallas you took the safe pick and not Manziel. I'm so proud. 

Well it is nice to be back, here's hoping it's not another year before my next post! As always feel free to comment below or make suggestions for story lines you want to get The

Profssor's treatment.