Thought it was about time I pulled my fortune teller's hat out of the back of my closet and publish for the world to see my genius in predicting the NFL season. You know, that sport that turns over playoff teams faster than your neighborhood Walmart turns over employees. I thought I would get crazy here and do my predictions before the 3rd week of the preseason ends when we have a good idea as to the Week 1 injury report and how many of the key position battles will end. I do this because I want my predictions to be ever more impressive and to give me a built in excuse if Andrew Luck tears an ACL next week.
This year ill put my predicted records as well as the current Vegas win total over/under numbers for each team in parentheses. At the end of the year I'll how I would've done placing a future bet on each team's win total.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia 9-7 (9 - for this purpose I'll take the over)
Washington 8-8 (7.5)
Dallas 7-9 (7.5)
New York Giants 5-11 (8 - hahaha)
So, this division sucks for a second year in a row huh? By facing the brutal NFC West, and the terrible AFC South, the out of conference schedules balance each other out so no one's totals are deflating or inflated for schedule.
I don't think Chip Kelly's offense was a fluke and I think we'll see some wrinkles in it we didn't see before. Foles has to regress from his ridiculous 2nd half last year and replacing DeSean Jackson with Darren Sproles and whatever they end up getting out of Jeremy Maclin might not work as well as Chip hopes. The defense isn't any better than the mediocre unit they were a year ago. I think the Foles regression is worth 1 more loss than last year but they have to be the best team of the bunch in this division.
This is all based on Washington's offense exploding under Jay Gruden, with a 100% healthy RG3 and more weapons at his disposal. Washington gave up the 2nd most points on defense last year, and may have made a couple of slight upgrades but nothing to write home about. This is a big 5 game jump from last year, but I believe that anyone that can turn Andy Dalton into a winner can do some magic with RG3 (or Cousins).
For Dallas they will have an elite offense if Romo and Murray stay healthy. They have invested heavily in that O Line and have three offensive play callers on the sidelines with Garrett, Callahan, and newly acquired Scott Linehan. Might be an all time great offensive season in Dallas history, because it has to be. The defense is no better than last year and they have already lost three key starters for anywhere from 4-16 games this season. But, I actually think they plugged some holes better than people might be giving them credit for and the defense won't be as calamitous as projected. That said, it's no better than last year's dung heap so I give a 1 game regression from last year accounting for potential Romo back issues.
The Giants suck. Besides saying they will get the ball out of Eli's hands super fast this year tell me what has changed from last year's team to this year's team? Rashad Jennings? Washed up Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie? Yeah, I have no faith in this team. Definitely is not an 8 win team. That's my favorite bet of the division for over-unders.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints 11-5 (10.5)
Carolina Panthers 9-7 (8.5)
Tampa Bay 7-9 (7 - For these purposes I'll take the under)
Atlanta 6-10 (8.5)
Vegas sees this as a fairly tough division, but I don't buy it. I don't think we will see a bounce back from Atlanta and a regression from Carolina is due. Out of conference schedules against the NFC and AFC North gives very few cupcakes outside of the division.
New Orleans is the cream of the crop for sure. Drew Brees thinks he'll play until he's 45 and I don't see why not unless his arm halls off. With the exception of horrible helmet to helmet calls (49er fans know what Im talking about) Brees doesn't get hit often and with Sean Payton pulling the strings it will not be any different. The loss of Sproles is filled by Brandin Cooks, who although a rookie, will be able to do the super athlete things Sproles used to do. This is probably a top 3 offense this year against 3 other in division teams that may have some offensive impotence. Note: Drew Brees only plays two potential cold outdoor games in the regular season: at Pittsburgh Nov. 30 and at Chicago Dec. 15 (foreshadow alert: I think this is a big game for playoff seeding).
I don't have the same sky is falling mentality about the Panthers receiving corps as many did. After all, Steve Smith can't have much left in the tank and we are supposed to cry about Brandon LaFell leaving? They will be alright, but I think along the lines of Tom Brady, Cam will have a big time adjustment period with so many new players. I also think Greg Hardy may not see the field the first month of the season due to a possible upcoming suspension, although that could be delayed now that Goodell is trying to appear to care about domestic violence after fumbling the Ray Rice thing. Either way I think Carolina starts slow before recovering for a winning record.
Tampa Bay fielded the third worst offense in football last year, but there is reason for hope that they won't need to score much. They got rid of Greg Schiano and replaced him with Lovie Smith and then picked up a bunch of impact players on defense. This is a good job by the Bucs GM recognizing the easier path to success was not fixing what was a horribly broken offense last year, but tweaking a defense that can do just enough to keep you in games, that is Lovie's specialty. Before you think I'm crazy about a Bucs 3 game gain over last year's 4-12, the over on 7 is the favorite bet.
Mike Smith might be seeing the hot seat after this season. Atlanta's offensive line may have serious issues (especially after losing its starting LT) a year after it was already bad. I am not confident in the health of Roddy White, Julio Jones, or Steven Jackson. With Gonzo's retirement, Atlanta might actually have a terrible offense at various points this season. I think 8.5 is too generous.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears 12-4 (8.5)
Detroit Lions 10-6 (8.5)
Green Bay 9-7 (10.5)
Minnesota 3-13 (6)
I think this will be one of the most fun divisions to watch this year. Gone is the era of the black and blue division. This is all about finesse and throwing points up on the board in bunches. If you live in the North Midwest, sit back, buckle your seatbelts, and enjoy the ride.
I am all in on Marc Trestman Year 2. This is a big leap of faith that Cutler stays healthy for 16 (or even 14) games, but I just have this magical feeling about them. They very well could have the best offense in the league, which is crazyspeak for any Chicago Bears offense. What sets them apart from the rest of the division is a revamped D-Line that will have the fun task of coming after the QB fairly often as their offense puts the opposing team in obvious passing situations to play catch up. I'm buying big on the Bears over 8.5.
I think Detroit has had 10 win talent for a few years now but their coach was so bad and the discipline so non-existent that Detroit couldn't live up to its potential. While Jim Caldwell isn't flashy, he certainly won't tolerate the penalties and undisciplined play from Matthew Stafford they've gotten. I expect them to follow through on their promise this year and make the playoffs.
Green Bay is always the sexy pick thanks to Aaron Rodgers but I actually don't think they stack up on defense nearly as well as the two teams above them and Green Bay hasn't really been dominant since the Super Bowl several years ago. They went 8-7-1 last year with a negative point differential. Assuming better health for Rodgers I moved the tie to a win, but they aren't very good on defense and I doubt that they'll be able to keep up with some of the other high powered teams. 10.5 just seems way too high for such a bad defense (only gave up 4 fewer points than Dallas last year).
Minnesota is probably the worst team in the NFC. Which is too bad, Adrian Peterson barely got the chance to shine in his prime (2009 when Brett Favre ruined his 122 yd 3td performance in a completely Brett Favreian way against New Orleans). Now it appears he'll ride out his last couple years of relevance with crappy QB play. If Norv Turner does anything with this team as the OC it will be pretty amazing. 6 wins isn't a bad line, but I just have a feeling Minnesota won't be able to break through often against many superior teams.
NFC WEST
Seattle 11-5 (11 - Over for these purposes)
Arizona 10-6 (7.5)
San Francisco 9-7 (10.5)
St. Louis 8-8 (7.5)
Obviously the class of the NFC is the West. Last year's two best teams and the year's biggest playoff snub are all found in this division. And then you have the Rams who are just some competent QB play away from possibly storming up the ladder after they have really solidified the trenches on both sides.
Seattle has to still be the favorite although I don't think enough is being made of the diminishing passing game weapons. They have the home field advantage and the phenomenal defense, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few upsets this year because they can't score on some days. It will also be interesting to see how the physical secondary takes to the new penalty emphasis on physical CB play, which the NFL should just be honest and call it the Seahawks Enforcement Protocol. Still, they are young, they are the defending champs, and with Pete Carroll at the helm, they will know how to avoid the dreaded plague of excess where everyone tells them how good they are all year and they play poorly because they think they can just show up.
I believe in Bruce Arians. I'll ignore the fact I'm picking a Carson Palmer led team to the playoffs. I believe in Bruce Arians. I'll ignore the fact that one of the sparks to their fantastic defense, Tyrann Mathieu, may not be the same speed he was last year. I believe in Bruce Arians. I'll overlook the fact they are putting so much of their offense in the hands of a a sub-200 lb RB. I believe in Bruce Arians. No team will be more motivated after what happened last year to make the playoffs and I think this team can be scary. Yes, I believe in Bruce Arians.
No, all of my San Francisco fans who read my blog, I am not trying to troll you. I, and you, should have very serious concerns about the defense. Navarro Bowman is gone for a long time. Aldon Smith is gone for a long time. Glenn Dorsey is gone for a long time. Donte Whitner is gone and the rest of the secondary outside of Eric Reid is in flux. This will not be the same 49ers defense we've seen the last 3 years. Which puts it more on the offense and specifically on Harbaugh and Kaep to figure it out. I wonder how well this offense will play when it plays from behind double digits as I think they will find themselves more often than the last couple of years. I'm just not sure how comfortable Harbaugh and Roman are getting into shootouts. The margin of error is so small in this division, that missing so many key defensive players for so many weeks will put San Francisco in that Carolina camp of falling behind early and scrambling to catch up.
St. Louis is a total wild card. Much of it depends on Sam Bradford. I think we have enough evidence to show he's a bust as a #1 overall pick, but has also shown enough ability to get it done. If he stays healthy and continues showing that ability to get it done, St. Louis is a surprise team for sure as they have such a good D-line and very strong O-line, and of course a coach you can trust in Jeff Fisher. But I'd like them more if they weren't playing Seattle, Arizona, and San Francisco 6 times this year.
Playoff Teams: Philadelphia, New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit, Seattle, and Arizona
NFC Champ Game: Seattle at Chicago
NFC Champ: Chicago
And with that I've stuck my head out there for the NFC. The AFC will come later this week.
No comments:
Post a Comment