So, I want to give a shout out to you folks who actually clicked my blog earlier this week. My post got 30(!) page views! That may seems like chicken scratch but to me it means a lot. Share the blog, comment, message me with blog ideas. I do this partly for me, but partly to get involved with others. Don't be shy! More activity encourages me to write more.
In case you missed it, here is the NFC Preview. Now on to the junior conference of the NFL. The AFC managed to get everyone to a winner record for the playoffs but it was close with San Diego (9-7) squeaking out a spot just over Miami (8-8), the Jets (8-8), Pittsburgh (8-8), and Baltimore (8-8). The fact that Geno Smith went 8-8 in the AFC should be all you need to know about the relevant strength of the conference. Sit back, relax, and enjoy as we trudge through the murky swamp that is the mediocrity of the AFC. Again the number in parentheses is the current over/under win line for each team.
AFC EAST
New England 12-4 (11)
New York Jets 8-8 (7)
Miami 6-10 (7.5)
Buffalo 5-11 (6.5)
Boy, this sure looks familiar. The Patriots with 12 wins and no one else in the playoffs. Let's play a little which one of these is not like the others. Tom Brady, Geno Smith, Ryan Tannehill, EJ Manuel. Those are the Week 1 starting QBs. Is it any wonder why this division has maintained an incredible level of status quo?
You Boston area football fans have been wicked lucky. Since their first Super Bowl in 2001 they have enjoyed one of the best owners in football (Robert Kraft), one of the best coaches in the history of the game (Belichick), and a first ballot hall of fame QB (Brady). You know what they didn't need? A division that never challenged them. The Patriots level of divisional success is unprecedented, due in large part to that owner, that coach, and that QB, but also due significantly to a lack of a threat. No algorithms, metrics, or other advanced statistics needed here to make this prediction.
I like the Jets everywhere but at QB. I think they stick with Geno far too long before making the short term move to Vick and it's too late to recover. You could talk me into a 9-7 record, but either way they have made strides on offense adding a couple of playmakers in Eric Decker and Chris Johnson and Rex seems to have this defense humming again such that being the 3rd favorite in this division seems semi-crazy.
Miami is relying on a QB who can't seem to stay healthy, a head coach who has little control over his locker room, an offensive line with so many holes it will be a wonder that aforementioned QB makes it through 5 games and a defense that makes you say "Who?" Except for Cameron Wake, that guy is awesome. Nothing to see here, move along.
Yuck. Sorry upstate New York fans (and Toronto fans) but EJ Manual was a semi-bust in college, I'm not sure why anyone thought it would be appropriate to draft him in the first round in the NFL. Buffalo has some fun exciting guys at the skill positions like CJ Spiller and Sammy Watkins, if they can stay healthy, but they need someone to get them the ball and keep the defenses honest. EJ isn't that guy. This defense could rank in the top half, but isn't so much of a game changer that they can win on that alone. Another year, another missed playoff.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis 10-6 (9.5)
Tennessee 7-9 (7 - For these purposes lets go under)
Houston 7-9 (7.5)
Jacksonville 5-11 (5 - For these purposes lets go over)
Another one of those default divisions where you can play the whole QB game again we just played in the AFC East. Andrew Luck v. Jack Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Chad Henne. That might actually be worse than the AFC East.
By the way, before I make my predictions before I look at the over unders, this one is kind of uncanny with how spot on I nailed what Vegas think, which almost assuredly means at least one of these picks is going to be REALLY wrong. I don't like Indianapolis that much and if any of these other teams had any competency on offense I might pick them over Indy. Andrew Luck is force unto himself, but that line sucks, and that defense sucks. Andrew Luck is the reason they beat teams they shouldn't have, but the rest of the team is the reason why they lost games they shouldn't have. 10 wins is generous, but Andrew Luck is probably worth that amount.
All rides on what is usually an above average defense and then an offense that might generate just enough. When Jake Locker is healthy he seems to be able to move the ball well but he just can't. Their skill position players are below average between Shonn Greene, rookie Bishop Sankey, second year wideout Justin Hunter and "veteran" wideout Kendall Wright. Just not a lot of wow factor on this team.
Houston will be better than their 2-14 record last year, you can bet your car, your house, your retirement, your wife,your husband, your kids, your life, etc... on that. But with Gary Kubiak gone and Matt Schaub replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick (yeah, that's not an upgrade) they won't score. So just enjoy they insane havoc JJ Watt and JaDeveon Clowney wreak on opposing QBs.
Jacksonville won't be the laughing stock of the AFC, but they will be close. I like what Gus Bradley does there and about half way through the season the team started to buy in when they went 4-4 over the last eight. Of course you can't go far with Henne and Gabbert. Bortles looks better than the other rookie QBs this year but it's been against 2nd-3rd stringers. Also they have a white running back as their 3 down back. Go get em Toby! Defense doesn't have a lot of playmakers but Gus might get em playing good team defense. Either way this is a 5-6 win team until Bortles grows up into an above average QB.
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati 12-4 (9)
Baltimore 9-7 (8.5)
Pittsburgh 7-9 (8.5)
Cleveland 4-12 (6.5)
Talking heads have made this maybe the 3rd or 4th best division in football as if it was a given, but I think this division is an example of too much deference to popular teams such as Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Cincinnati, who gets little recognition beyond the routine Andy Dalton bashing actually walked away with this division easily last year and I see no reason why they should not again this year.
A dirty little secret from last year is that Cincinnati actually had the 4th best point differential at +125. That's an average of 7.8 points that Cincinnati outscored its opponents over the entire 16 game season. That's some dominance. Why shouldn't they be just as good (11-5 last year) or better this year? I understand Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis aren't the sexiest coach/QB combos out there, but his team is loaded with talent everywhere. On offense they boast the electric Giovani Bernard and the elite AJ Green, in addition with athletic two TE sets that create mismatches. On defense, Marvin's specialty, they had the best defense in the AFC last year on a PPG basis and return studs like Geno Atkins (who missed half the season last year) and Vontaze Burfict and replacing ancient by DB standards Terrence Newman with first roudn pick Darqueze Dennard. 9 seems so low for their over/under when they return nearly every starter from their 22 last year.
Baltimore has the pleasure of two coaches who know what their doing with the better Harbaugh coach patrolling the sidelines and Gary Kubiak where he belongs in the offensive coordinators booth, but I still think they will be limited at the offensive line like they were last year causing the Baltimore offense to be one of the worst int he league. Not much has changed personnel wise from last year (except adding Steve Smith) so Kubiak can only scheme so much. The defense returns mostly intact from a year ago and will do their part to keep teams in games.
I'm not sure why I'm supposed to like Pittsburgh. They have been 8-8 two years in a row and aren't going anywhere with what they have talent wise, and it starts defensively surprisingly enough. The secondary that was once vaunted with Ike Taylor, Ryan Clark, and Troy Polamalu is now old and that age showed up big time last year. They also lack a true talent as a pass rusher with Jason Worilds as their sack leader with a paltry 8. Notwithstanding the Bell/Blount blunt issue (haha) I don't see Pittsburgh's offense exceeding its middle of the pack production last year. You could talk me into another 8-8 season but I thought to hammer home the point they weren't finishing above .500 this year.
Cleveland isn't going anywhere until their QB situation changes. It's a shame since they have a lot of talent EVERYWHERE else, but Brian Hoyer has looked rattled and lacking in confidence following the Manziel hype and Johnny was never a first round pick in the first place. Did you see him with Gruden when asked to name a complex play? Johnny has years to go before I'd trust him with the ball. The NFL isn't a playground and it's often times why the best QBs aren't the most athletic ones who rely solely on physical gifts, but study the game hard and are smart about it. If Hoyer continues to uninspire, he'll be out no later than half way through the season and as soon as Johnny steps out there they will struggle to win even one more game.
AFC WEST
Denver 13-3 (11.5)
San Diego 9-7 (8)
Kansas City 7-9 (8)
Oakland 5-11 (5 - Over for these purposes)
The only division last year to produce 3 playoff teams is headlined by a Super Bowl favorite again this year and two other teams in San Diego and Kansas City who have their own aspirations for a playoff repeat. Oakland will be a tough out and are headed int he right direction but if Derek Carr is going to be the real deal, sitting behind Schaub and learning what not to do will go a long way towards his and the Raiders' development.
There isn't much to say about Denver. With Peyton at the helm his teams will always be a favorite to win 11, 12, 13 games. They added some big name talent on defense, but there are various reasons they were all available such as age and lack of versatility (DeMarcus Ware) or head cases (Aqib Talib) but lost some good players such as Rodgers-Cromartie and Shaun Phillips. Overall I think the defense does just enough to get Denver back to 13 wins and the Broncos offense doesn't miss a beat.
San Diego has some interesting talent everywhere and saw a revival of Philip Rivers under Ken Whisenhunt (who is no longer with the team) but I find it hard to believe Mike McCoy will mess with success. The team has a competent stable of running backs, Keenan Allen who finished 2nd to Eddie Lacy in offensive rookie of the year voting last year, an of course Antonio Gates passing the torch off to hyper talented but raw LaDarius Green. The defense wasn't great statistically but finished the year very strong in their playoff push including holding Peyton Manning to 20 and 24 points in Week 15 and the divisional round of the playoffs last year. No real changes to the unit beyond draft picks means I expect it to be fairly competent as well. I feel like in the AFC just being competent on both sides of the ball will lead to a playoff spot.
Kansas City won 9 games in a row last year to start the season. They played one playoff team, Philadelphia, who hadn't found its stride yet in Week 3. In its final 7 games it played 5 games against would be play off teams and lost all 5, granted Week 17 against San Diego they mailed it in because their seed was set, but the proof in the pudding as they say. The road gets much tougher this year including out of conference games against New England, San Francisco, Seattle, and Arizona, in addition to two tilts each against the Chargers and Broncos and a road game against fellow mediocre team Pittsburgh. That defense will still be good, but lord help me Jamaal Charles is going to have to be 85% of their offense this year due to a sheer lack of talent everywhere else on offense. Sorry but regression is in the cards.
Oakland is moving in the right direction making smart decisions such allowing Matt Schaub to take his lumps while Derek Carr relearns a pro system similar to that he played in his first couple of season at Fresno State, and taking hyper talents defensive players like Khalil Mack whom Urban Meyer said was the best defensive player he played against last year, including all the first round defensive talent from the Big 10 that went in the draft this year. Oakland still has too many warts and too much slop to muck out of this roster from the previous regimes, but they are headed in the right direction.
Playoff Teams: New England, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Denver, San Diego
AFC Champ Game: Cincinnati at Denver
AFC Champ: Denver
Super Bowl: Chicago v. Denver
NFL Champ: Denver in one of the most entertaining Super Bowls ever.
There you have it folks, no need to play the games, the result is preordained, give Peyton that trophy. So being the NFL, logic rarely takes hold and if the Super Bowl ends up being Indianapolis v Arizona I wouldn't bat an eye. Enjoy the season, enjoy your betting, enjoy your fantasy, the NFL is only great because of these other distractions that allow us to be more engaged and wanting more after that 7 hour binge on NFL Redzone. Can't wait to see how right am I this year.
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