Where'd I put that fork?

(Ed. Note: I wrote this the night of Miami's Game 4 loss. A Post Script below addresses Game 5)

Lets get this out of the way: The Miami Heat are done. Everyone wearing a black and red jersey in Miami has one of these sticking out of their backs: 

Last post I wrote that the Spurs would win in 6. This was a mistake for two reasons, 1) I forgot that the Finals format was now 2-2-1-1-1 instead of 2-3-2. Spurs in 6 would have them winning in Miami (like they should have done last year) and 2) I grossly overestimated the Heat's roster despite giving them only marginal credit to begin with. 

As I said last week, this season pits a team that should have won in 6 and had a good shot to win in 7 that got better versus a team that clearly got worse. But how much worse was unknown. I said the Heat went through nobodies to get to the Finals and its bearing itself out in these Finals. No one could really know how good this team was playing playoff novice Charlotte, beyond over the hill New Jersey, and they need to be committed to a mental ward (or maybe just Stephenson) Indiana. 2 of those teams would not have even made the Western Conference final 8 if you factor in the switch in schedules as well. Well, San Antonio is showing us what the Heat were, an aging, tired team, with the world's greatest player. They are slowly morphing into that 2007 Cavaliers team that LeBron put on his back and hiked to the Finals before getting housed by San Antonio. 

Lets investigate the warts that have been uncovered. Dwyane Wade is breaking down. Plain and simple. If you can't bring it physically in the NBA Finals after missing nearly 30 games on a "maintenance" schedule and playing 15 of some of the least grueling playoff games ever to prelude a Finals appearance it's time to transition your game. Dwyane can't cover anyone and that's the start as to why San Antonio is crushing it on offense at a historic level. People forget how important Dwyane was to the team defense. You didn't just have one perimeter defender than can go man on ball without help, you had two. It set the tone for the entire defensive set. Instead of help defenders rotating off to help Wade now as he's getting passed by anyone wearing silver and black, the other defenders could stay home. You've seen how much ball movement has left Miami's usually staunch half court defense in disarray. Watch how bad he is on defense now. You don't have to go any farther than 1:30 into the video before you find Danny Green -- DANNY GREEN -- abusing him on a baseline drive forcing rotating help.

Ok fine, he's loafing on defense so he can contribute on offense, because you've gotta score to keep up  with this version of the Spurs, right? Wrong. Go back to that video. Almost as glaring as the defensive mishaps pointed out by that glorious green arrow is Dwyane Wade's poor offense setting up his poor defense. Dwyane was a much different player in 2011 when he would've been Finals MVP if Miami didn't get beat by the better team. Dwyane Wade now needs to become what Manu Ginobili is, what Jason Terry reinvented himself as: The 6th Man. Blasphemous, maybe, but those 28 games off, and the craptacular performance so far in 4 games against a good team says otherwise. 

Dwyane can clearly alter a game in spurts, especially against a second unit. Ginobili and Terry have done it for years with less physical gifts than i assume Dwyane still possesses. But Dwyane has been asked to play 33,  34, 36, and 33 minutes. That is too many. This isn't meant to be a slight on Wade even though I despise him when he was basically given any foul shot he wanted in the 2006 Finals, this is just reality for a player who is 32 years old and has nearly 12 full seasons on his body, playoffs included. He played hard in his career and he's paying for it now. But this is something he needs to recognize and accept, he's not a starter anymore. Especially going forward. Which actually makes this offseason interesting. More on that later. 

Wart number two is Mario Chalmers. People have been blasting this kid these Finals. Historically bad numbers for a starter, horrible fouls (his elbow flagrant at San Antonio in Game Two should've made this a sweep), and general lack of basketball acumen for four games. I'm going to reverse course on him. I never thought he was any good. When you are the fourth, sometimes fifth best offensive player on the court for your team, its not hard to carve out a little niche as a wide open three point shooter. He's never been a guy that made anyone on the floor better. But here's whats happening: Dwyane Wade is getting exposed and Chris Bosh has been relegated to something like an overgrown Mike Miller. This is putting the spotlight on Chalmers to both make something happen offensively  and contribute defensively. He was never a good offensive player so that is out of the question and defensively he used to be the stay at home guy on perimeter players when people would drive and kick on James or Wade. He can't play man on ball defense at all and its why Parker and even Patty Mills is abusing him. I don't blame Chalmers. He was never good, but he's been the best Miami has been able to grab at Point Guard since Bosh and James came to town. Life was good when your'e the fourth or fifth option on offense grabbing open looks off a James or Wade drive and playing stay at home on the spot up shooter defense while James and Wade go man on ball. Chalmers, your time is up as a starter. You'll be a backup somewhere next year. 

Wart number three is Chris Bosh. This one isn't really his fault either. Or maybe it is. Chris Bosh came to Miami from Toronto as a jack of all trades freak on offense at the Power Forward spot. He was a lot like Dirk Nowtizki if Dirk could play above the rim but without the need to shoot outside so much. He could shoot the three and posterize people.  When you watch that replay you see a lot of isolation and dribble drive from Bosh. Something that LeBron and Dwyane did at least equally as well, but probably not better. So what room was there for Bosh in that half court offense? The truth is there was none. 

Bosh chose the path of the ring over the stardom. It's a choice we all say we would make if we were athletes and the one we always want our best to make, but deep down I think we make it too easy on ourselves. Watch those highlights again. That is not the Chris Bosh people know. People have forgotten what Chris Bosh might have been if he chose to maybe be the first or second banana on a team with some skill, a la Chicago instead of Boozer, or even New York instead of Amare. So from that perspective, what Chris Bosh has become as a man who is a spot up shooter when the dribble drive breaks down the defense is somewhat his fault.

But, I'm not going to exonerate Spoelstra. I think this season was a fantastic opportunity to unleash Bosh again. LeBron and Wade were going through maintenance and in some cases just mailing in games during the regular season. Bosh was 29 this year and easily had the least mileage on his legs compared to James and Wade. Spoelstra instead makes Bosh his new Mike Miller. Bosh never had more than 21 3s made in a season before this year. In the regular season this year? 74! I refuse to believe Bosh has lost those physical gifts you saw on that video. Instead Bosh refuses to assert himself, content to be 3rd banana while Wade breaks down and Spoelstra relies too much on what worked 3-4 years ago. Why is Popovich successful after 15 years with aging superstars? Because he changed. He changed his offensive and defenseive philosophies with the times and his personnel. Spoelstra just went through the motions of what has worked since 2012. This series could be very different if Bosh was made 2nd banana from the outset this year. Duncan and Parker almost feel invisible from these Finals because the other guys are stepping up so big. 

The last wart is that bench. Battier, Haslem, James Jones. These guys used to swing games on their own. Now they are invisible. Meanwhile, Patty Mills, Diaw/Splitter, and the immortal Manu Ginobili are carving up the Heat in both first team and second team sets. Why? Because Popovich played them all 20+ mins a game in the regular season. These aren't guys who are being inserted to try to find a spark. These are seasoned veterans. The Heat got by the last few years with a number of bench specialists. But they are failing now. This is the easiest cure for Miami, but based on the first three warts it won't matter. 3/5 of Miami's starting lineup is playing well below what we've seen before and there is nothing to indicate it won't continue. Miami's lack of bench production is compounding those first three problems.

So, stick a fork in them they are done. But, to make this a little more light-hearted let's play some what-ifs. 

1. What if the Big Three opt out of their contracts and then re-sign for less to make room for Carmelo?

I fail to see how this strategy helps Miami. Sure you get Carmelo to help with the scoring load, but that hasn't exactly been the problem in Miami. It's the waning team defense. Carmelo offers no help in that department. The only way this strategy helps is if Dwyane takes a humongous pay cut to 6th man status, and Bosh and Lebron take big cuts to allow Miami to rebuild their depth. Because, honestly, I do not see Carmelo making it cheap on Miami. If this happens and everyone re-ups for 2-3 more years with the addition of Carmelo, you might see the Heat in the Finals one or two more times because of the sheer incompetence of the East, but that is far from a championship team. 

2. This was a fun one I made up with a friend the other day. What if Duncan retires after winning this championship and LeBron decides to fill the void in San Antonio?

Couldn't this be a mtach made in heaven. LeBron gets to a competent organization that knows how to adapt to the times and personnel, and knows how to cultivate role players. Teh run a such a precision passing offense now that LeBron would fit right in. He'd upgrade what is not the most stellar defense and, while Ginobili has very little left down the road, Parker and Leonard plus role players and Popovich form a very formidable contender. If this scenario were to ever happen I actually think LeBron could win more championships in San Antonio than he's going to win in Miami. This scenario isn't as far fetched as it sounds, if LeBron is serious about getting the rings.

3. What is LeBron opts out and goes to Cleveland?

Well, I guess Cleveland would be a contender in the East again, but why go play with the babies? Kyrie has never won anything and whoever they pick first will have been eliminated in the first or second round of the NCAAs in their only meaningful postseason experience.  Plus, Cleveland has proved less than competent in rebuilding themselves since LeBron left four years ago. All they have to show for it is no playoffs and 3 #1 overall picks. LeBron would be crazy to go there, even if it is a homecoming and the path back to the Finals is paved with gold in the East. 

Also, what happens to Bosh and Wade? If LeBron opts out, you have difficult choices. Wade will not make nearly as much money anywhere else if he opts out. Also who knows how many more years he has. Wade has to stay. But, what about Bosh? Stay and re-reinvent yourself? Become the alpha Heat? Without LeBron, the Heat are 7th in the East, at best. LeBron opting out would make Bosh one of the top free agents, again, and several contenders and would be contenders could go after him. Despite being relegated to Mike Miller status, he could actually command a bigger payday than he is getting now. 

4. What if all three refuse to exercise their ETO?

In all likelihood the Heat would go back to their fifth straight NBA Finals, second all time to the Celtics who did it 10 times when there were like 5 teams in the 50s-60s and none of them had a huge black guy named Bill Russell. But it wont be easy.  The East is just that bad. With only Norris Cole under contract next year, Miami will have to rebuild around another 5 very cheap but reliable bench and role players with limited resources. The good news is they can basically push the role player reset button around Wade, Bosh, and LeBron. This gives them a great advantage. But I think to win it all again they would need to reevaluate how they use Wade and Bosh going forward.

POST SCRIPT

Last night was inevitable and further proves my point that Miami has more issues than just Dwyane Wade. There was one possession where Miami had the ball and Tony Parker was defending Chris Bosh. Bosh didn't get one look on that possession. Miami has to reevaluate how they play offense. They need to get more defensive wing specialists too. For my money of those 4 options above I think all three will remain in Miami to chase yet another Finals appearance.

Congratulations to the Spurs and I am especially proud of my Mavericks for pushing the eventual champs to the brink and giving them their toughest series in the playoffs. Now the offseason fun begins with Miami's three, Carmelo, and some other noteworthy pieces up fro free agency this offseason.