Thursday, July 19, 2012

1992 v. 2012: Is this really a debate?


It’s about time I got back here. We have hit a sort of lull in the sporting world. Basketball and hockey have ended their seasons a month ago, football is still 6 weeks away from being remotely entertaining, Wimbledon is over, the U.S. Open is over.  All we have had lately is the MLB All-Star game.  I have already said my piece in a podcast at the start of the season but for an interesting take on the game and voting that I largely disagree with (Sorry Mr. Armchair, can’t agree on everything) go here: http://mrarmchair.blogspot.com/2012/07/midsummer-classicdebate.html

What has been interesting is the approaching 2012 Olympics, U.S.A. Basketball team selection and the 20th anniversary of the 1992 Dream Team. ESPN put up an awesome documentary on the 1992 Dream Team last month and Kobe Bryant has recently come out and said he thinks the 2012 version would beat the 1992 version.  Of course the more vocal members of the 1992 team dispute that.

Of course two things spring to mind: what else would you expect from Kobe and this is another one of those historical comparisons that would be amazing to play out but is simply fuel for endless sports bar debate.  Nonetheless it is fun to go back in time and make comparisons to the present. Also, Kobe is smoking crack (in case you were wondering where I’m heading).  Let’s do a side by side comparison shall we?
Starting with the 2012 version, we’ll include a healthy Blake Griffin here because up until a few hours before exhibition season he was healthy and ready to play.

This would be my starting lineup if I was Coach K:

PG Chris Paul, 27, NBA Rookie of the Year, 5x All-Star, 2x All NBA 1st Team, 1x All NBA 2nd, 1x All NBA 3rd, 2x All NBA defensive 1st team, 2x All NBA defensive 2nd team

Pretty damn good resume from Paul. If I had a choice between all the good American point guards with all things being equal and no injuries to worry about: Rose, Paul, Williams, Rondo, I think Paul is the choice hands down.  I think he is the best PG for this type of team (and any type of team), he is a known closer (see his 4th quarter metrics), but above all he brings probably the most complete package.

SG Kobe Bryant, 33, 5x NBA Champ, 2x NBA Finals MVP, 1x NBA MVP, 14x All-Star, 10x NBA 1st team, 2x NBA 2nd team, 2x NBA 3rd team, 2x Scoring champ, 9x NBA defensive 1st team, 3x NBA defensive 2nd team

The elder statesmen and captain of the US team. There is no question Kobe could go into the hall of fame this second and that he was the best player of his generation. The real question is what does a 33 year old Kobe Bryant have to offer in a game against history’s best? He has already gone through some weird German blood spinning treatment in his knee, and while he scored a ton this last year, he really wasn’t the same deadly Kobe Bryant. He became a volume scorer this year. He also can’t possibly keep up the defensive intensity either. If he wasn’t Kobe Bryant and wasn’t the captain he wouldn’t be a starter on this team. The pedigree is there but the age works against him. If matched up against 29 year old Michael Jordan, he would get destroyed. Purely destroyed. More on that later.

SF Kevin Durant, 23, NBA Rookie of the Year, 3x All-Star, 3x 1st NBA 1st team, 3x scoring champ.

A pure scorer, inside and out, Durant is still really green. His mental game and defensive game are sorely lacking compared to some of the other best players in the game today. How many ridiculous fouls did he take in that Miami series? We may love the Durantula for his quiet demeanor and beautiful offensive game but overall Durant is maybe the 4th best starter on this team and has some ways to go before legitimately being compared to LeBron or Kobe. I don’t find Durant as useful as others would.

PF Lebron James, 27, 1x NBA Champ, 1x NBA Finals MVP, 3x NBA MVP, 8x All-Star, 6x NBA 1st team, 2x NBA 2nd team, 4x NBA defensive 1st team, 1x scoring champ, NBA Rookie of the Year

LeBron finally turned the corner. He finally found what he needed to rise in the moment instead of shrink from it. While I hate that he did it with the Heat he obviously deserved it. He played like a man in the postseason. Power forward is not his actual position but based on his size he’s a natural there in this game. He is probably the most deadly of the players on the 2012 national team and its biggest mismatch.  The way to take him out of the game is to be able to play a bully style of defense. I would love to see Sir Charles banging against LeBron and generally getting under his skin.

C Kevin Love (I guess?), 23, 2x NBA All-Star, 1x NBA 2nd team

The US team is woefully thin here. Maybe you start Griffin, but I think Love is the better player. I know that debate has raged on for a couple years (Love v. Griffin) now but Kevin can get dirty on the boards as a center and then take a center out of the perimeter to shoot his 3s. Kevin is just a much more complete player than Griffin. Still this is pretty weak  at this position even though I like K-Love.

BN Carmelo Anthony, 28, 5x NBA All-Star, 1x NBA 2nd team, 4x NBA 3rd team

I heard on Mike and Mike an e-mailer say that if you were going to replace people on the 1992 youd replace Barkley with Anthony. That’s pure lunacy. Carmelo is basically a broke person’s Kevin Durant.  He can score, not as well, and provides little else. Not to mention on offense at least Durant can be a facilitator. Carmelo is just a black hole. As I explained above Durant is probably the 4th most useful guy on the team.  Carmelo is probably the 8th or 9th. Carmelo wouldn’t have sniffed the 1992 team.

BN Russell Westbrook, 23, 2x NBA All-Star, 2x NBA 2nd team

Russell and his 15-18 foot jumpers were made for the international game. He also has the ability to dish, penetrate and kick and be a spot up shooter. The problem is he is reckless and is yet another volume shooter that isn’t the most attuned defensively. Also he is still just so young; he and Durant have only really scratched the surface of their team basketball abilities. In 4 years this might be a different story for them, but for now they aren’t the most useful players on this team.

BN Blake Griffin, 23, 2x NBA All-Star, 1x NBA 2nd Team , NBA Rookie of the Year

Just keep getting younger and more inexperienced here don’t we? Blake would likely have split time between the 4 and 5. He’s still really raw and relies entirely on his athleticism. The 4s and 5s on 1992’s team would eat him alive. In fact given the lack of depth here for 2012 and 3 of the greatest big men of all-time sitting on the 1992 team (and Patrick Ewing) Blake would probably not play more than spot minutes or if someone got into foul trouble in a seven game series. You just get the impression that he would get absolutely dominated at this stage of his career.  The evidence is in his underwhelming playoff run this year. He needs more seasoning and more actual basketball acumen.

BN Deron Williams, 28, 3x NBA All-Star, 2x NBA 2nd Team

Once upon a time there raged a debate whether Deron or Chris Paul was the best point guard in the league. I think the simple resumes on the screen answer that question. Deron Williams is a good player no doubt but in his 8 full seasons in the league he has only been considered in the top three at his position twice, whereas in the same time frame Chris Paul has been named in the top 3 4 times.  There isn’t anything particularly wrong with Deron, simply that I just wouldn’t consider him elite, only very, very good.

BN Tyson Chandler, 29, 1x NBA 3rd Team, 1x Defensive Player of the Year, 2x 2nd NBA Defensive Team

Chandler is the one guy who would be able to hold his own at least on defensive end inside. He’d score anywhere from 0-4 points per game but at least he’d be able to slow down the bigs of the 1992 team until he got into foul trouble. Nothing much more to say about him, he is what he is.

BN Andre Iguodala, 28, 1x NBA All-Star, 1x NBA Defensive 2nd Team

It’s bizarre to think Iguodala and Williams are the same age. In fact, what is Iguodala even doing on this team? For fantasy purposes he is useful for his multi-position eligibility (G/F) and do a little bit of everything stat sheet. But come on, we are talking about playing him against the 1992 Dream Team? In 1992 he likely would’ve been lucky to make the team as a ball boy.

BN James Harden, 22

Yeah there are no accolades next to his name like the other members. To be sure there will be, but not now. He has been described as kind of a Ginobili prototype slash and shoot type of player. It’s nice to be compared to Ginobili because even if you hate his game you know in your heart hes good. But what Harden showed me in those NBA Finals this year is that he just isn’t ready. And that was against only 3 of the potential 2012 U.S. Olympians (James, Wade, and Bosh). Against 1992’s team he’d never play.

The starters on 2012 team are good to be sure and include two sure-fire Top 10-15 of all-time hall of famers.  How does this team stack up against 1992 (these ages, accolades, and stats are not career based, but based on what they had earned up to their inclusion on the 1992 team)?

PG Magic Johnson, 32, 5x NBA Champ, 3x NBA MVP, 3x NBA Finals MVP, 12x NBA All-Star, 9x NBA 1st Team, 2x NBA 2nd Team, 1x NBA 3rd Team

Having retired prematurely the season before the Olympics due to HIV Magic Johnson was Lebron James before there was a LeBron James. He had the ability to play anywhere on the floor, score and distribute with the best of them and even started at center in Game 6 of the 1980 NBA Finals throwing down a 42/15/7 line while playing nearly every position on the court. In his last full season before the Olympics he still averaged 19 points and 12 assists while shooting  47% and 90% from the field and line. He wasn’t in his prime during the Olympics but he was still at least every bit as good as you believe Kobe Bryant is now.  Besides, who guards him? None of the PGs on the roster would be able to. Youd think it would be LeBron maybe, but as youll see below leaving Kobe on Jordan may not be a great idea. Kobe on Magic might make the most sense.

SG Michael Jordan, 29, 2x NBA Champ, 3x NBA MVP, 2x NBA Finals MVP, 8x All-Star, 6x NBA scoring champ, 1x Defensive Player of the Year, 6x NBA 1st Team, 1x NBA 2nd Team, 5x NBA Defensive 1st Team,  Rookie of the Year

Michael is the only guy who requires three lines for his mini-resume and was in the absolute prime of his career. He is the undisputed best player in the history of the game. If Kobe was in his prime he still wouldn’t have matched Jordan, but being 33 Kobe has to get slaughtered up and down the floor by Jordan. Jordan would probably do it out of spite following Kobe’s smack talk that they would win (More on this in the next paragraphs) . So what do you do, you switch LeBron on Jordan defensively? LeBron is a wicked weakside defender but on the ball even 33 year old Kobe is probably better when he wants to. Jordan stops Kobe and no one stop Jordan. Period.

These next two stories are ripped off from Bill Simmons’ Book of Basketball. If you have been even remotely interested in this blog post or the debate itself you MUST pick up the book. It’s 700 pages but it reads easy and you learn more about basketball than you will ever remember.

Story No. 1: Game 1 of the 1992 NBA Finals (just a month or so before the Olympics) – At the time there had been talk that Clyde Drexler (a fellow Dream Teamer) who finished 2nd in MVP voting that year and many thought Clyde and MJ would cancel each other out in the analysis of the Finals. 6 minutes left in the 1st quarter Portland is leading 17-9. Here is what Michael does in the next 17 minutes of game time: 3 pointer, 2 pointer and 1, 3 pointer, 3 pointer, 2 pointer, 2 pointer. 1st quarter ends and Portland is only up 33-30 and MJ has 18 as he sits for a breather. Later in the 2nd quarter it’s Chicago 45-44 and MJ comes back in to this: 2 pointer, 3 pointer, steal + 2 pointer, 2 pointer, 3 pointer, follow up dunk, awkward Drexler airball, 3 pointer with the famous shrug. Jordan scored 33 points in that 17 minutes, had 35 for the half, outscored Drexler by 27, and broke the playoff record for three pointers in one half. All because someone said Drexler might be as good as him. Of course Jordan would later ride Drexler some more during Dream Team practices to the point Magic Johnson would have to tell him to knock it off so he doesn’t ruin his confidence for the Olympics.

Story No. 2: It was 2011, Jordan was 39 and running the Washington Wizards as he mulled what would be his last comeback. While evaluating talent in California, Paul Pierce came up to Jordan and told him that he better not comeback that it was their league now and they didn’t want to embarrass him.  Jordan nodded and asked when the Wizards played the Celtics that season because he was going to make a point to drop 40 on him. At that point Pierce’s coach pulled Pierce aside and told him to never talk to him, that he’s the one guy you don’t talk smack to. At this time Jordan had been retired for three full years and was 39 years old and still was the one guy you never talked smack to. By the way (and this isn’t in Simmons’ book – thank you basketball-reference.com), Jordan didn’t get to 40, but he did drop 32 in their fourth game of the season. At age 39. After 3 years off. Simply because Paul Pierce talked shit.  Pierce only had 14 in that game.

After reading those stories, if you believe that Jordan on his own (not to mention the pride of the rest of the 1992 team) would ever let the Dream Team lose to 2012, especially after Kobe talking smack, you are crazy. One more thing I’ve thought about reflecting on Jordan’s homicidally competitive nature is that the most dominate athletes in their sport have always been compared to Michael. Tiger Woods is the Michael Jordan of golf. Roger Federer (5 years ago) is the Michael Jordan of tennis. Barry Bonds is the Michael Jordan of baseball.  It was never the other way. Michael Jordan wasn’t the Babe Ruth of basketball. Michael was the Michael Jordan of basketball. There has been no other athlete like him and if you said he was the greatest professional athlete across all sports of all time I would probably agree with you. Kobe, I hope you have a good psychologist after Jordan ruins you for a series.

SF Scottie Pippen, 26, 2x NBA Champ, 2x NBA All-Star, 1x NBA 2nd Team, 1x NBA Defensive 1st Team, 1x NBA Defensive 2nd Team

This one is a tough one to judge. Obviously Scottie was only just entering the prime of his career. He would have his best statistical seasons after Jordan retired the first time in 1994-1996. But Scottie was a very good player at the time of the Dream Team. He was a proven distributor in Phil Jackson’s triangle offense (in fact he was second on the Dream Team in total assists during the Olympics), and he was already a proven defensive bulldog. Stick him Durant and let him go to work. Im sure Durant would work to get points but it would be a great matchup seeing two young guys just starting their primes, one the best defender at his position and the other the best scorer at his position. It’s one of those very evenly matched positions.

PF Charles Barkley, 29, 6x All-Star, 4x NBA 1st Team, 3x NBA 2nd Team

For some reason you always feel the need to defend Charles Barkley because he was a 6’6” power forward. But his stats really speak for themselves. He was in the middle of prime at the time of the Dream Team and was one year away from winning the MVP (right or wrong) in Jordan’s last season before his baseball sabbatical. When you own the glass as a 6’6” power forward you know how to play basketball. It would be fun to watch Charles bang the glass against another old school rebounder like Kevin Love. While he would probably have trouble defensively against LeBron is James played the 4, Barkley would certainly use every bit of his aggression and relentlessness to make him work.  Also there is something to be said for Barkley being the leader scorer in the Olympics for the Dream Team. Replace Charles with Melo, ha! Whoever that e-mailer was that wrote into Mike and Mike should be banned from further emails.

C David Robinson, 26, 3x NBA All-Star, 2x NBA 1st Team, 1x NBA 3rd Team, 1x Defensive Player of the Year

Robinson had only completed 3 years in the NBA to this point and already had a better resume than any big man the 2012 team can put forward. He becomes the biggest mismatch of the series. If 2012 devotes any effort to stopping him it opens things up for more prolific scorers like Johnson, Jordan or Barkley. There isn’t any more analysis needed here. He is Coach K’s biggest problem.

Before I get to the bench I wanted to make a couple of comments. First, where was Kobe getting the idea that these guys are old? This team starts two of the best players ever at their position in the middle of their primes (Jordan and Barkley), two guys who had just entered their prime (Pippen and Robinson) and one guy who was just exiting his prime who is still as good as any player the 2012 team can put at the same PG position. Kobe needs to brush up on his NBA history. Second, take a look at that five. Go back and take a look at the 2012 five. Really let it sink in. It’s hard to imagine seriously arguing that the 2012 starting five is better than the 1992 starting five. Why that’s an issue is because that starting five is the 2012 strength. When you get to the bench, it’s a bloodbath.

BN John Stockton, 30, 4x All-Star, 4x NBA 2nd Team, 1x NBA 3rd Team, 3x NBA Defensive 2nd Team

It’s hard to imagine Stockton was a 30 year old as member the Dream Team, especially when more of his accolades came later including his two runs to the NBA Finals. What I think is important to note here is that Stockton is not his generation’s Steve Nash (often drawing the comparisons because they are white and have similar stats). Stockton was tough and is not the defensive liability Nash has been his whole career. Stockton could certainly step in and guard Paul, Westbrook, and Williams (of course with some help since no one can keep up with Westbrook).

What I like most about Stockton is that where everyone else is boisterous and flashy, Stockton quietly represented the character of the Dream Team: professional, hyper-competitive, skillful basketball players. 2012 has 1 guy that completely fits that mold and in his prime would have fit in well on the Dream Team: Kobe. Not even LeBron fits the mold of the Dream Team basketball player (although he would undoubtedly be on the team). This is why this team couldn’t lose to the 2012 team. They are basketball players first and all of them have earned their chops. 2012 is full of a bunch of flashy athletes, many of which (Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Griffin) either haven’t fully figured out how to really be basketball players yet or haven’t even begun to figure out how to really be basketball players.

While it’s not a perfect comparison look to college basketball. Nearly every year for a long time North Carolina and Duke sit among NCAA royalty in the rankings and standings. North Carolina recruits better athletes and generally produces more productive NBA talent than Duke. Duke also recruits good athletes but produces basketball players and its teams reflect their level of basketball talent. Duke is consistently good including making the NCAA tournament 27 of the last 28 years and 17 straight. North Carolina has missed the tournament 3 of the last 11 years alone despite recruiting better athletes. They aren’t better basketball players. That’s the difference here between 1992 and 2012.  

BN Karl Malone, 28, 5x NBA All-Star, 4x NBA 1st Team, 1x NBA 2nd Team, 1x NBA Defensive 2nd Team

The Mailman! As an aside, why do nicknames suck now? They are super uncreative. You had The Mailman (Malone), The Admiral (Robinson), His Royal Airness (Jordan), The Round Mound of Rebound (Barkley), etc…Nowadays we get garbage like CP3, AK-47 (Andrei Kirilenko if you don’t know), or Linsanity which was a ripoff of Vince Carter’s shitty nickname: Vinsanity. Lame.

Anyhow there is no one on 2012 that could really guard Malone. He was in the middle of prime, in the middle of a run of 11x NBA 1st Team selections. He is likely the greatest player never to win a championship (Maybe Elgin Baylor was better). His final resume is really impressive (though not totally relevant here) and he would simply dominate inside. I also would find it hard to believe that in his prime Karl Malone could not guard any combination of Love, Chandler, or Griffin.

BN Patrick Ewing, 29, 6x All-Star, 1x NBA 1st Team, 4x NBA 2nd Team, 3x NBA Defensive 2nd Team, Rookie of the Year

Now I slighted Ewing a little bit earlier on in the blog but it is true, you really couldn’t call Ewing one of the best big men of all time. Too many big men before him and after him are better. But, if he’s your fourth best big man and still better than any big man on the floor for the other team? Now you’re talking. I’d be surprised if Ewing couldn’t take advantage of the mismatch in the same way as Malone.

BN Chris Mullin, 28, 4x NBA All-Star, 1x NBA 1st Team, 2x NBA 2nd Team, 1x NBA 3rd Team

Mullin filled a very specific role here and I’m not even going to try to defend it. One of the first guys you take off the Dream Team to replace with a 2012er is this guy. It’s no slight, he is in the hall of fame (on his college resume mostly since the basketball HOF is not just a pro one), but really when you look at it he was here because he had his best season right before the Olympics and they were really lacking another spot up shooter.  If Reggie Miller was born a few years earlier this would have been his spot. In reality, this should have been Isaiah Thomas’ spot but Jordan had such a beef with the guy he didn’t want to play with him.
Mullin still would get run in this series though, after all wouldn’t you rather have 28 year old Chris Mullin coming off his best year ever or 28 year old Andre Iguodala? Yeah, thought so.

BN Clyde Drexler, 30, 6x NBA All-Star, 1x NBA 1st Team, 2x NBA 2nd Team, 1x NBA 3rd Team

This was another guy coming off his best statistical season ever and clearly was in his prime, even at 30 (remember NBA primes started later in the 80s and 90s because no one was a 1 and done college player).  Of course he was crushed by Jordan as explained above and was never the same, but Clyde was a very smooth SG and a great backup to Jordan on the Dream Team as 1 of only 5 Dream Teamers to average double figures. He is another very capable scorer coming off the bench, especially against the dregs of 2012s bench like Chandler, Harden, and Iguodala.

BN Christian Laettner, 22, College  

This will probably go down as Laettner’s greatest basketball experience, even over his college championship winning shot that is one of the 3 or 4 most iconic college basketball moments ever. Laettner, not yet a pro, was getting to play with the greatest players of all time, every single one of which would make the Basketball Hall of Fame (he is the only one who hasn’t yet – and may still get there because as I said its not a pro Hall of Fame).  He beat out Shaq for this spot. You can’t question the decision. Laettner’s coach, Coach K, was on the assistant staff under Chuck Daly and Laettner had the basketball acumen to fit in on the squad. Shaq was simply an athletic beast. Getting the picture now? Basketball over athleticism.  Still he is assuredly the 
one obvious weak link on this team.

BN Larry Bird, 35 (and a half), 3x Champion, 3x NBA MVP, 2x NBA Finals MVP, 12x NBA All-Star, 9x NBA 1st Team, 1x NBA 2nd Team, 3x NBA Defensive 2nd Team, Rookie of the Year

Ok so I found this one interesting. Obviously Bird is one of the greatest players ever and this team was his swan song, he never played professionally again afterwards. It wasn’t for a lack of ability either his final season was 20.2 ppg, 9.6 rpg and 6.8 apg. Can you say MONSTER? Still I do wonder how a balky backed 35.5 year old Larry Bird would hack it against 2012. I think he would be able score but he probably wouldn’t be able to cover anyone.

Most likely he would be good for some trash talking (by all reports he was one of the greatest trash talkers ever) and then back it up with some ridiculous play. He would give everything and he was still a sharp shooter, finishing 2nd on the Dream Team in 3 –pointers. He would be useful but only with a more defensive oriented team around him.

Those are the teams. Of course what does Kobe mean that he thinks the 2012 team could beat the 1992 team? 1 game straight up? 7 game series? Something else? I mean for a comparison as to which team is better I think a 7 games series is appropriate. But don’t get me wrong, I think 2012 wins a winner take all game maybe 5/100 times. There is just no way with everything on the line that players like Jordan, Barkley, Stockton, and Bird lose very often.

In a 7 game series you could see the 2012 guys taking a game or 2, but I would venture a guess to say the series would NEVER get to 7 games. The problem is when you start exposing that 2012 bench. They just couldn’t compete.

Of course the other question is by what rules? 1992 rules, 2012 rules or simply international rules? Both 
1992 and international rules heavily favor the Dream Team because play is a lot more physical. This is a major reason why athleticism leads to success in today’s NBA. Because with far less emphasis on physical defense, the quicker you are the better and why the best players are among the fastest or are the ones who can jump the highest or both.

Still, even in 2012 the NBA is about winning as a team regardless of the athleticism. Dallas a much older and slower team beat Miami two years ago by playing basketball instead of being in a track meet. Miami took down OKC this year, even though OKC is arguably more athletic because Miami finally played basketball instead of relying on their superior athletic talents. Duke lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament this year to Lehigh. Lehigh doesn’t have anyone athletically superior to Duke but won because they played a team game. So even if they played by 2012’s high flying rules the Dream Team is still favored because there is no chance of them not playing team basketball. 2012 doesn’t even know what that is (except maybe Kobe).

There is a reason The Dream Team is called the greatest team ever assembled. I think we can stop having these debates now. Just like Kobe is not Michael Jordan, 2012 or any other recent iteration of the USA Men's basketball team is not The Dream Team. 

2 comments:

  1. Looks like someone was using their TBOB.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Could you add statistics for the number of players that the 1992 team and 2012 team opponents regarding:

    1. How many years of NBA experience their players had, combined

    2. How many NBA All-Star appearances their players had, combined

    3. How many years of USA college experience their players had, combined

    It seems like the majority of the analysts who provide stats to back up the Dream Team's easy dominance forget to factor in the increased level of competition that the current teams' stats are based against. I don't think anyone can say that the challengers to the Dream Team would have had any shot against the current Spain, Russia and Argentina squads.

    By the way, I agree that the Dream Team > 2012 Team.

    ReplyDelete