NBA Finals Preview

Well that was a shocking ending to the Eastern Conference Finals. To delight of my readers I had a good baseball post ready to go and then Miami wins another game I didn't think they would win and I actually have to write this post.

Here is the summary of the post in 3 words: Dallas in six.

Let's get something out of the way. Vegas will have Miami as favorites, probably something between -160 to -200. Of the 22 ESPN "experts" on the Finals page on espn.com only 7 pick Dallas. So why do I have Dallas winning without trying to be a homer, which is something I try very hard to do. Well read on:

Because it's LeBron and Wade, the media just wants to gush about how awesome they are playing, how they are ice cold closers now, and that they are just dominating their opponent. In no way did they dominate Chicago, the same way that Dallas did not dominate OKC even though both series ended 4-1. But for some reason, Miami is dominating, and Dallas is surviving according to the media. If anyone ever questions experience in the NBA playoffs going forward they are dumb. Miami rolls in with three key players, James, Wade, and Haslem who have been to the NBA finals, with two players winning it all. Chicago rolls in with no key players ever reaching the conference except Boozer once in 2006-2007 with the Jazz.

The same goes for the Dallas/OKC series. Noone of consequence (Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden, Durant) had ever made it out of the first round before this year. Dallas has 3 key players who have played in at least 1 NBA finals (Dirk, Kidd, Terry) and another in Marion who has been to the Conference Finals a couple of times before this year. That experience bore itself out in these Conference Finals. We all saw the collapse of Games 4 and 5 in the Dallas Series, and Game 5 in the Miami series. But in Games 2-4 of the Miami series, the games were always in doubt in the 4th quarter and prior to last night no halftime lead was bigger than 3. I find this hardly dominating, and I think the media is not giving enough credit to Chicago and too much to Miami. If we go into experience, while Miami has two players with one ring each, Dallas certainly has the edge in the number of playoff games played by its key contributors.

The level of competition played has been fairly different too. Miami played a .500 Philly team, a Boston team that clearly had no spirit after the Perkins trade, and then essentially lost its most effective player in Game 3 after that gruesome injury to Rondo (look at his Game 4 and 5 stats), and then of course Chicago who presented them their toughest challenge so far. Dallas had to go through Portland (14 games over .500), the LA Lakers (defending Champs), and Oklahoma City (NBA's leading scorer). Of the three teams Miami played, they only faced 1 member of any of the 3 All-NBA teams, of which there are 15 total members. That was Rose. Of the three teams Dallas faced, they played 5, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Kevin Durant, and Russell Westbrook. That's 1/3 of the best 15 players in the league. Dallas has one in Dirk and the eastern conference, whom they can't play had 6 total, 2 of which Dallas faces in the Finals. Dallas will have faced the most possible All-NBA players when these playoffs end. I think if you look at those list of teams Dallas has played, on aggregate, tougher competition.

Here's where someone come out and says "But what about homecourt advantage?" Dallas has won 5 straight road games, including a closeout game at the Rose Garden, the only two games at the Staples Center and the only two games at the Oklahoma City Arena. I think any reasonable analyst agrees that those three places are all tougher to play at than the American Airlines Arena where the Heat play. True, the Heat are undefeated at home in the playoffs, but I really feel like homecourt is irrelevant. These are the two best road teams in the regular season and they both play in less than suffocating arenas. Homecourt is marginal at best in this series.

Dallas is also going to be the best offense Miami has seen so far in these playoffs and the only team that averages 100 points per game. I understand Miami has excellent team speed and that's what makes their half court defense so good, but they haven't faced a team with an offense like Dallas'. They have excellent ball movement, they can put 3-4 spot up three shooters on the floor at any time and well as good of defense as LeBron has played, no one has stopped Dirk yet. Miami has the 3rd worst 3 point % defense in these playoffs (Dallas has the best) and that can't bode well going forward. Chicago got a bunch of open shots but couldn't knock them down at a good enough rate. Dallas can, especially since Dallas has much better ball movement than Chicago, Dallas has the second highest rate of assists per game in the playoffs, just .1 behind Boston. Dallas can put pressure on Miami's defense but knocking down shots and making the Heat work with Dallas' excellent ball movement.

Dallas' defense has been anywhere from good to excellent these playoffs as well. This is the defense between those 06 Mavericks and these Mavericks. For much of the Thunder series they forced OKC into bad shots, especially in crunch time. This has to relate as to why Dallas leads the playoffs in 3 point shooting defense, they have been able to put excellent offensive players: Kobe, Westbrook, Durant, and force them to take bad shots. I understand there is a difference between Wade and James and those guys, but not much. Marion and Kidd both have been showing excellent defensive resolve on some of the best players in the game, I am confident they can continue to put up a fight.

Miami's offense is largely predicated on transition and quick basics. When you watch them in the half court, I still don't think they know what they are doing. LeBron didn't touch the ball for like 5 minutes in the 4th quarter last night because Chicago took care of the ball and kept Miami in the half court, and they have pretty poor ball movement. Dallas comes into the finals taking better care of the ball than either Boston or Chicago did. Dallas has the ability to take care of the ball and force their pace on teams. OKC is used to running up and down the court in transition (105 ppg in the regular season), and for the most part Dallas contained that part of the game. When Dallas did OKC bogged down in half court too, just like Miami does. I'm again confident that Dallas can take care of the ball and prevent too many easy transition baskets.

Lastly, Shawn Marion and Jason Kidd have kind of jumped into the time machine these playoffs. Its been so long since I've seen either of them play defense to this level, and Shawn Marion hasn't had a game like he did in Game 5 of the OKC series in 5 years. Dirk is playing unstoppable offense. These guys just seem to have the desire. If Kidd and The Matrix can keep up the intensity for another 6 or 7 games, Dallas just has much more talent overall across the board than Miami does. James will be the best player on the court when hes on there, but Wade struggled in Chicago, and I think he's a little hurt, and Bosh has been very inconsistent. Outside those three you can't count on anyone else. Haslem's reemergence (Go Gators!) has been nice, but he has only made a significant impact in one game. Same with Mike Miller. Dallas has been getting significant impacts from everywhere. In a 7 game series I really feel like the deeper, more driven team will win. Dallas has the drive, they have the sense of urgency, and they have the killer instinct, to go with the deep lineup. Miami has the drive to validate everything they did this year, but I don't see it to the same level Dallas has displayed these playoffs. I think Miami KNOWS it will be back. I think Dallas KNOWS they have a slim chance to. It's a big difference. You also can't discount that Dallas has a team full of guys who would seriously consider selling their first borns for this ring. Kidd NEEDS it. Dirk NEEDS it. If LeBron never wins a ring, he'll still go down as a top 5 player ever. If Kidd gets his ring, you start talking about him with Stockton. If Dirk gets his you start talking about him with Malone or Barkley. Without it, these guys know their legacies will fall short despite the amazing things they have done over the last 16 and 12 years respectively. Sports are about drive. You can will yourself to great things with the right level of determination and I feel like Dallas has it in a way they never have.

So after reading all of this I am sure people are wondering how Miami has a chance at all, and why I didn't pick Dallas in 4. Well two things scare the crap out of me. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade on the floor at the same time and the foul calls. I mean you don't just discount 2 of the best 5 players in the game on the same team on the floor at the same time. They are great and that's why this series is no walk in the park for either team. Both teams are great. I'm also worried a little about the foul calls. If the refs call it tight, Dallas is in trouble, they just don't get to the foul line the same way Miami does. Really, that's how Miami gets a lot of half court offense, through the foul line. If they call it loose, Dallas has an edge because Miami's half court offense isn't great. Of course I am a little snakebitten as well by Wade's 46 FTs in the last two games of the 06 Finals so I always worry about it.

This should be a great series, and I am glad Dallas is back, but I want this championship for them so badly, I think even more than I wanted the Rangers to beat San Francisco last year. It's a sense of urgency I have as well with this team. Dirk has earned this. Kidd has earned this. I will truly feel terrible if they end their magnificent careers without a ring. Going through Miami this year will make it possibly the best championship I have ever rooted for among my Dallas teams, ranking right up there when the Cowboys went through the Niners in 1992 for their first Super Bowl of the 90s and the first time I got to celebrate a title for one of my favorite teams. That still ranks as my favorite, but if Dallas can run through Miami, I'll have to think long and hard about whether it remains there.

What do you out there think in the cyberspace? Am I too homerish? Is Miami going to win? Bring a prediction and a bring a reason why, anyone can say Dallas in 6, but I have shown you why.