Gotta write this piece while it's fresh. I watched both Game 2s of each conference finals and here is my take.
Starting with the West. I think OKC just took their best shot and Dallas still kept it mysterious until about 40 seconds left. Maynor throwing down 13 and Harden throwing down 23 and can't put it away until the last minute? OKC shoots 56%, Dallas shoots 44%. Westbrook shot nearly 50% and OKC wins by only 6, with a little bit of free throw help at the end.
Here is where I am worried, Dallas looked tired and slow on several possessions. Barea barely penetrated the lane over the whole game. The offense became stagnant at stretches and transition defense was terrible. Foul trouble became an issue as well in the first half. I would've sworn that after calling 55 personal fouls in the first game, the NBA would've let them play in Game 2. Nope, 46 PFs, with many of them coming in the first half. Also, don't get me wrong, the Thunder are a great team. I know I would've rather had Memphis, playing Kevin Durant is bad for my health. Lastly, Dallas' team defense has disappeared. That defense has to step up.
I am heartened by a number of things. First, Dirk remained as efficient as before despite the much added pressure. 29 points, 59% FG, 90% FT, 5 assists. It was a quiet effort and I think Dirk can put up these stats all series long. Eric Maynor was good, but he's not Russell Westbrook. I'm curious to see how a 22 year old 2nd team All-NBA guard handles being benched the whole 4th quarter. Scott Brooks made the right call in this game, but did he kill his 2nd best player? Also, when you face career playoff games from bench players, when the best bench in the NBA struggles, 50-29 for bench scoring. Terry with 8 points.
All in all, I'm very disappointed in losing at home, but OKC has lost at home already this playoffs and Dallas can balance out the bench. I still feel Dallas takes this in 6 after a road split and a home win in game 5 and a closeout in 6.
Moving to the East, I think Game 2 was an inevitable result. Chicago has few reliable offensive performers. A lot of Rose's value comes from his threat as a scorer. When he is scoring from all over the court, he opens the offense. When he struggles, the team does. In the second half Rose was shut down. Can Miami shut him down for 3-5 more games? No. But they did a great job in Game 2 in the second half. What I found interesting was that Rose put up a 2nd half stinker and got virtually no negative press. If Lebron put up another stinker it was be story #1. Image continues to mean a lot in this series and Lebron continues to face enormous pressure to succeed.
I don't blame Rose entirely for the loss. The entire offense broke down. In the 2nd half Luol Deng made several out of control moves that resulted in turnovers or bad shots. Boozer didn't threaten and shooters couldnt hit shots. 15% from 3, 34% from the field as a whole. Chicago still held a potent offense to 85. I think if Chicago can hold Miami to 85 a game, they will win this series in 5. I still believe Chicago wins this in 7. They can get a road split in Miami, win 5 and lose 6 and take out Miami in a big Game 7.
I won't take away from Miami's defense, it was great. But I felt like a good percentage of their defense was bad offense by Chicago. Chicago showed these problems in two prior series and their defense won out over the long haul, I continue to believe they will wear out Miami on the defensive end and grind out a series win.
What's the prediction out there for everyone else now that both Finals became a best of 5 series with the underdogs holding home court advantage?
The common factor I see in both series is that the Mavs and Bulls played almost perfect game 1s and were bound to have some issues dealing with adjustments that OKC and MIA were going to make.
ReplyDeleteLuckily for the latter, those adjustments seemed to be the right ones. If Dirk repeated his Game 1 performance then the Thunder would already be looking at vacation spots. It was even more so for the Bulls as an entire unit.
For OKC/DAL, I think it just comes down to the non-superstar on the teams. Durant and Dirk are both going to score a ton of points and carry their teams as well as nail a million FTs so it depends on who can step up as the secondary scorer. I remember watching the Blazers series and it was always a different guy stepping up (Kidd, then Peja, then Barea, etc). Game one it was Jason Terry and in game two it was James Harden. We'll see how it goes - I'm biased so I'm going Thunder in 6 because if it goes to 7, then it's probably gonna be the Mavs in the Finals.
For CHI/MIA, I think this is what we were all expecting to see. LeBron and Wade would be too much for teams to handle and then you still have Bosh to sprinkle in. All of a sudden Udonis is back and their only real weakness is PG - kind of like the Lakers, except LeBron and Wade are athletic freaks where they'll score 99% of the points and there's nothing you can do to stop them. They just have to "contain" or limit Rose and not get worked up by Boozer and Noah (who does get away w/ a lot of dirty plays). Heat in 6 or 7 - this Bulls team relies too heavily on Rose. Korver won't get nearly as many open looks as he had against the crap teams they played on the way to the ECF. I will point out that I am biased against the Bulls because I have a bet against them but man, it's nice that everyone on FB shut up about the Bulls Game 1 stomping after they lost their homecourt edge so fast (and same for the Mavs, although the only Mavs fan I know out there is Matt).
Nice post - I like the insight on LeBron getting so much pressure while D.Rose has already built such a squeaky clean image. Didn't see him man up and admit he was wrong after his cheating fiasco - at least Bynum called Barea personally to apologize (and it was accepted).