2014 Pigskin Prognostication - AFC Edition

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In case you missed it, here is the NFC Preview. Now on to the junior conference of the NFL. The AFC managed to get everyone to a winner record for the playoffs but it was close with San Diego (9-7) squeaking out a spot just over Miami (8-8), the Jets (8-8), Pittsburgh (8-8), and Baltimore (8-8). The fact that Geno Smith went 8-8 in the AFC should be all you need to know about the relevant strength of the conference. Sit back, relax, and enjoy as we trudge through the murky swamp that is the mediocrity of the AFC. Again the number in parentheses is the current over/under win line for each team.

AFC EAST

New England 12-4 (11)

New York Jets 8-8 (7)

Miami 6-10 (7.5)

Buffalo 5-11 (6.5)

Boy, this sure looks familiar. The Patriots with 12 wins and no one else in the playoffs. Let's play a little which one of these is not like the others. Tom Brady, Geno Smith, Ryan Tannehill, EJ Manuel. Those are the Week 1 starting QBs. Is it any wonder why this division has maintained an incredible level of status quo?

You Boston area football fans have been wicked lucky. Since their first Super Bowl in 2001 they have enjoyed one of the best owners in football (Robert Kraft), one of the best coaches in the history of the game (Belichick), and a first ballot hall of fame QB (Brady). You know what they didn't need? A division that never challenged them. The Patriots level of divisional success is unprecedented, due in large part to that owner, that coach, and that QB, but also due significantly to a lack of a threat. No algorithms, metrics, or other advanced statistics needed here to make this prediction.

I like the Jets everywhere but at QB. I think they stick with Geno far too long before making the short term move to Vick and it's too late to recover. You could talk me into a 9-7 record, but either way they have made strides on offense adding a couple of playmakers in Eric Decker and Chris Johnson and Rex seems to have this defense humming again such that being the 3rd favorite in this division seems semi-crazy.

Miami is relying on a QB who can't seem to stay healthy, a head coach who has little control over his locker room, an offensive line with so many holes it will be a wonder that aforementioned QB makes it through 5 games and a defense that makes you say "Who?" Except for Cameron Wake, that guy is awesome. Nothing to see here, move along.

Yuck. Sorry upstate New York fans (and Toronto fans) but EJ Manual was a semi-bust in college, I'm not sure why anyone thought it would be appropriate to draft him in the first round in the NFL. Buffalo has some fun exciting guys at the skill positions like CJ Spiller and Sammy Watkins, if they can stay healthy, but they need someone to get them the ball and keep the defenses honest. EJ isn't that guy. This defense could rank in the top half, but isn't so much of a game changer that they can win on that alone. Another year, another missed playoff.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis 10-6 (9.5)
Tennessee 7-9 (7 - For these purposes lets go under)

Houston 7-9 (7.5)

Jacksonville 5-11 (5 - For these purposes lets go over)

Another one of those default divisions where you can play the whole QB game again we just played in the AFC East. Andrew Luck v. Jack Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Chad Henne. That might actually be worse than the AFC East.

By the way, before I make my predictions before I look at the over unders, this one is kind of uncanny with how spot on I nailed what Vegas think, which almost assuredly means at least one of these picks is going to be REALLY wrong. I don't like Indianapolis that much and if any of these other teams had any competency on offense I might pick them over Indy. Andrew Luck is force unto himself, but that line sucks, and that defense sucks. Andrew Luck is the reason they beat teams they shouldn't have, but the rest of the team is the reason why they lost games they shouldn't have. 10 wins is generous, but Andrew Luck is probably worth that amount.

All rides on what is usually an above average defense and then an offense that might generate just enough. When Jake Locker is healthy he seems to be able to move the ball well but he just can't. Their skill position players are below average between Shonn Greene, rookie Bishop Sankey, second year wideout Justin Hunter and "veteran" wideout Kendall Wright. Just not a lot of wow factor on this team.

Houston will be better than their 2-14 record last year, you can bet your car, your house, your retirement, your wife,your husband, your kids, your life, etc... on that. But with Gary Kubiak gone and Matt Schaub replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick (yeah, that's not an upgrade) they won't score. So just enjoy they insane havoc JJ Watt and JaDeveon Clowney wreak on opposing QBs.

Jacksonville won't be the laughing stock of the AFC, but they will be close. I like what Gus Bradley does there and about half way through the season the team started to buy in when they went 4-4 over the last eight. Of course you can't go far with Henne and Gabbert. Bortles looks better than the other rookie QBs this year but it's been against 2nd-3rd stringers. Also they have a white running back as their 3 down back. Go get em Toby! Defense doesn't have a lot of playmakers but Gus might get em playing good team defense. Either way this is a 5-6 win team until Bortles grows up into an above average QB.

AFC NORTH

Cincinnati 12-4 (9)

Baltimore 9-7 (8.5)

Pittsburgh 7-9 (8.5)

Cleveland 4-12 (6.5)

Talking heads have made this maybe the 3rd or 4th best division in football as if it was a given, but I think this division is an example of too much deference to popular teams such as Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Cincinnati, who gets little recognition beyond the routine Andy Dalton bashing actually walked away with this division easily last year and I see no reason why they should not again this year. 

A dirty little secret from last year is that Cincinnati actually had the 4th best point differential at +125. That's an average of 7.8 points that Cincinnati outscored its opponents over the entire 16 game season. That's some dominance. Why shouldn't they be just as good (11-5 last year) or better this year? I understand Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis aren't the sexiest coach/QB combos out there, but his team is loaded with talent everywhere. On offense they boast the electric Giovani Bernard and the elite AJ Green, in addition with athletic two TE sets that create mismatches. On defense, Marvin's specialty, they had the best defense in the AFC last year on a PPG basis and return studs like Geno Atkins (who missed half the season last year) and Vontaze Burfict and replacing ancient by DB standards Terrence Newman with first roudn pick Darqueze Dennard. 9 seems so low for their over/under when they return nearly every starter from their 22 last year.

Baltimore has the pleasure of two coaches who know what their doing with the better Harbaugh coach patrolling the sidelines and Gary Kubiak where he belongs in the offensive coordinators booth, but I still think they will be limited at the offensive line like they were last year causing the Baltimore offense to be one of the worst int he league. Not much has changed personnel wise from last year (except adding Steve Smith) so Kubiak can only scheme so much. The defense returns mostly intact from a year ago and will do their part to keep teams in games. 

I'm not sure why I'm supposed to like Pittsburgh. They have been 8-8 two years in a row and aren't going anywhere with what they have talent wise, and it starts defensively surprisingly enough. The secondary that was once vaunted with Ike Taylor, Ryan Clark, and Troy Polamalu is now old and that age showed up big time last year. They also lack a true talent as a pass rusher with Jason Worilds as their sack leader with a paltry 8. Notwithstanding the Bell/Blount blunt issue (haha) I don't see Pittsburgh's offense exceeding its middle of the pack production last year. You could talk me into another 8-8 season but I thought to hammer home the point they weren't finishing above .500 this year. 

Cleveland isn't going anywhere until their QB situation changes. It's a shame since they have a lot of talent EVERYWHERE else, but Brian Hoyer has looked rattled and lacking in confidence following the Manziel hype and Johnny was never a first round pick in the first place. Did you see him with Gruden when asked to name a complex play? Johnny has years to go before I'd trust him with the ball. The NFL isn't a playground and it's often times why the best QBs aren't the most athletic ones who rely solely on physical gifts, but study the game hard and are smart about it. If Hoyer continues to uninspire, he'll be out no later than half way through the season and as soon as Johnny steps out there they will struggle to win even one more game. 

AFC WEST

Denver 13-3 (11.5)

San Diego 9-7 (8)

Kansas City 7-9 (8)

Oakland 5-11 (5 - Over for these purposes)

The only division last year to produce 3 playoff teams is headlined by a Super Bowl favorite again this year and two other teams in San Diego and Kansas City who have their own aspirations for a playoff repeat. Oakland will be a tough out and are headed int he right direction but if Derek Carr is going to be the real deal, sitting behind Schaub and learning what not to do will go a long way towards his and the Raiders' development. 

There isn't much to say about Denver. With Peyton at the helm his teams will always be a favorite to win 11, 12, 13 games. They added some big name talent on defense, but there are various reasons they were all available such as age and lack of versatility (DeMarcus Ware) or head cases (Aqib Talib) but lost some good players such as Rodgers-Cromartie and Shaun Phillips. Overall I think the defense does just enough to get Denver back to 13 wins and the Broncos offense doesn't miss a beat. 

San Diego has some interesting talent everywhere and saw a revival of Philip Rivers under Ken Whisenhunt (who is no longer with the team) but I find it hard to believe Mike McCoy will mess with success. The team has a competent stable of running backs, Keenan Allen who finished 2nd to Eddie Lacy in offensive rookie of the year voting last year, an of course Antonio Gates passing the torch off to hyper talented but raw LaDarius Green. The defense wasn't great statistically but finished the year very strong in their playoff push including holding Peyton Manning to 20 and 24 points in Week 15 and the divisional round of the playoffs last year. No real changes to the unit beyond draft picks means I expect it to be fairly competent as well. I feel like in the AFC just being competent on both sides of the ball will lead to a playoff spot.  

Kansas City won 9 games in a row last year to start the season. They played one playoff team, Philadelphia, who hadn't found its stride yet in Week 3. In its final 7 games it played 5 games against would be play off teams and lost all 5, granted Week 17 against San Diego they mailed it in because their seed was set, but the proof in the pudding as they say. The road gets much tougher this year including out of conference games against New England, San Francisco, Seattle, and Arizona, in addition to two tilts each against the Chargers and Broncos and a road game against fellow mediocre team Pittsburgh. That defense will still be good, but lord help me Jamaal Charles is going to have to be 85% of their offense this year due to a sheer lack of talent everywhere else on offense. Sorry but regression is in the cards. 

Oakland is moving in the right direction making smart decisions such allowing Matt Schaub to take his lumps while Derek Carr relearns a pro system similar to that he played in his first couple of season at Fresno State, and taking hyper talents defensive players like Khalil Mack whom Urban Meyer said was the best defensive player he played against last year, including all the first round defensive talent from the Big 10 that went in the draft this year. Oakland still has too many warts and too much slop to muck out of this roster from the previous regimes, but they are headed in the right direction.

Playoff Teams: New England, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Denver, San Diego

AFC Champ Game: Cincinnati at Denver

AFC Champ: Denver

Super Bowl: Chicago v. Denver 

NFL Champ: Denver in one of the most entertaining Super Bowls ever. 

There you have it folks, no need to play the games, the result is preordained, give Peyton that trophy. So being the NFL, logic rarely takes hold and if the Super Bowl ends up being Indianapolis v Arizona I wouldn't bat an eye. Enjoy the season, enjoy your betting, enjoy your fantasy, the NFL is only great because of these other distractions that allow us to be more engaged and wanting more after that 7 hour binge on NFL Redzone. Can't wait to see how right am I this year. 

2014 Pigskin Prognostications - NFC Edition

Thought it was about time I pulled my fortune teller's hat out of the back of my closet and publish for the world to see my genius in predicting the NFL season. You know, that sport that turns over playoff teams faster than your neighborhood Walmart turns over employees. I thought I would get crazy here and do my predictions before the 3rd week of the preseason ends when we have a good idea as to the Week 1 injury report and how many of the key position battles will end. I do this because I want my predictions to be ever more impressive and to give me a built in excuse if Andrew Luck tears an ACL next week. 

This year ill put my predicted records as well as the current Vegas win total over/under numbers for each team in parentheses. At the end of the year I'll how I would've done placing a future bet on each team's win total. 

NFC EAST

Philadelphia 9-7 (9 - for this purpose I'll take the over)

Washington 8-8 (7.5)

Dallas 7-9 (7.5)

New York Giants 5-11 (8 - hahaha)

So, this division sucks for a second year in a row huh? By facing the brutal NFC West, and the terrible AFC South, the out of conference schedules balance each other out so no one's totals are deflating or inflated for schedule. 

I don't think Chip Kelly's offense was a fluke and I think we'll see some wrinkles in it we didn't see before. Foles has to regress from his ridiculous 2nd half last year and replacing DeSean Jackson with Darren Sproles and whatever they end up getting out of Jeremy Maclin might not work as well as Chip hopes. The defense isn't any better than the mediocre unit they were a year ago. I think the Foles regression is worth 1 more loss than last year but they have to be the best team of the bunch in this division. 

This is all based on Washington's offense exploding under Jay Gruden, with a 100% healthy RG3 and more weapons at his disposal. Washington gave up the 2nd most points on defense last year, and may have made a couple of slight upgrades but nothing to write home about. This is a big 5 game jump from last year, but I believe that anyone that can turn Andy Dalton into a winner can do some magic with RG3 (or Cousins).  

For Dallas they will have an elite offense if Romo and Murray stay healthy. They have invested heavily in that O Line and have three offensive play callers on the sidelines with Garrett, Callahan, and newly acquired Scott Linehan. Might be an all time great offensive season in Dallas history, because it has to be. The defense is no better than last year and they have already lost three key starters for anywhere from 4-16 games this season. But, I actually think they plugged some holes better than people might be giving them credit for and the defense won't be as calamitous as projected. That said, it's no better than last year's dung heap so I give a 1 game regression from last year accounting for potential Romo back issues. 

The Giants suck. Besides saying they will get the ball out of Eli's hands super fast this year tell me what has changed from last year's team to this year's team? Rashad Jennings? Washed up Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie? Yeah, I have no faith in this team. Definitely is not an 8 win team. That's my favorite bet of the division for over-unders. 

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints 11-5 (10.5)

Carolina Panthers 9-7 (8.5)

Tampa Bay 7-9 (7 - For these purposes I'll take the under)

Atlanta 6-10 (8.5)

Vegas sees this as a fairly tough division, but I don't buy it. I don't think we will see a bounce back from Atlanta and a regression from Carolina is due. Out of conference schedules against the NFC and AFC North gives very few cupcakes outside of the division. 

New Orleans is the cream of the crop for sure. Drew Brees thinks he'll play until he's 45 and I don't see why not unless his arm halls off. With the exception of horrible helmet to helmet calls (49er fans know what Im talking about) Brees doesn't get hit often and with Sean Payton pulling the strings it will not be any different. The loss of Sproles is filled by Brandin Cooks, who although a rookie, will be able to do the super athlete things Sproles used to do. This is probably a top 3 offense this year against 3 other in division teams that may have some offensive impotence. Note: Drew Brees only plays two potential cold outdoor games in the regular season: at Pittsburgh Nov. 30 and at Chicago Dec. 15 (foreshadow alert: I think this is a big game for playoff seeding). 

I don't have the same sky is falling mentality about the Panthers receiving corps as many did. After all, Steve Smith can't have much left in the tank and we are supposed to cry about Brandon LaFell leaving? They will be alright, but I think along the lines of Tom Brady, Cam will have a big time adjustment period with so many new players. I also think Greg Hardy may not see the field the first month of the season due to a possible upcoming suspension, although that could be delayed now that Goodell is trying to appear to care about domestic violence after fumbling the Ray Rice thing. Either way I think Carolina starts slow before recovering for a winning record. 

Tampa Bay fielded the third worst offense in football last year, but there is reason for hope that they won't need to score much. They got rid of Greg Schiano and replaced him with Lovie Smith and then picked up a bunch of impact players on defense. This is a good job by the Bucs GM recognizing the easier path to success was not fixing what was a horribly broken offense last year, but tweaking a defense that can do just enough to keep you in games, that is Lovie's specialty. Before you think I'm crazy about a Bucs 3 game gain over last year's 4-12, the over on 7 is the favorite bet. 

Mike Smith might be seeing the hot seat after this season. Atlanta's offensive line may have serious issues (especially after losing its starting LT) a year after it was already bad. I am not confident in the health of Roddy White, Julio Jones, or Steven Jackson. With Gonzo's retirement, Atlanta might actually have a terrible offense at various points this season. I think 8.5 is too generous. 

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears 12-4 (8.5)

Detroit Lions 10-6 (8.5)

Green Bay 9-7 (10.5)

Minnesota 3-13 (6)

I think this will be one of the most fun divisions to watch this year. Gone is the era of the black and blue division. This is all about finesse and throwing points up on the board in bunches. If you live in the North Midwest, sit back, buckle your seatbelts, and enjoy the ride. 

I am all in on Marc Trestman Year 2. This is a big leap of faith that Cutler stays healthy for 16 (or even 14) games, but I just have this magical feeling about them. They very well could have the best offense in the league, which is crazyspeak for any Chicago Bears offense. What sets them apart from the rest of the division is a revamped D-Line that will have the fun task of coming after the QB fairly often as their offense puts the opposing team in obvious passing situations to play catch up. I'm buying big on the Bears over 8.5. 

I think Detroit has had 10 win talent for a few years now but their coach was so bad and the discipline so non-existent that Detroit couldn't live up to its potential. While Jim Caldwell isn't flashy, he certainly won't tolerate the penalties and undisciplined play from Matthew Stafford they've gotten. I expect them to follow through on their promise this year and make the playoffs. 

Green Bay is always the sexy pick thanks to Aaron Rodgers but I actually don't think they stack up on defense nearly as well as the two teams above them and Green Bay hasn't really been dominant since the Super Bowl several years ago. They went 8-7-1 last year with a negative point differential. Assuming better health for Rodgers I moved the tie to a win, but they aren't very good on defense and I doubt that they'll be able to keep up with some of the other high powered teams. 10.5 just seems way too high for such a bad defense (only gave up 4 fewer points than Dallas last year).

Minnesota is probably the worst team in the NFC. Which is too bad, Adrian Peterson barely got the chance to shine in his prime (2009 when Brett Favre ruined his 122 yd 3td performance in a completely Brett Favreian way against New Orleans). Now it appears he'll ride out his last couple years of relevance with crappy QB play. If Norv Turner does anything with this team as the OC it will be pretty amazing. 6 wins isn't a bad line, but I just have a feeling Minnesota won't be able to break through often against many superior teams. 

NFC WEST

Seattle 11-5 (11 - Over for these purposes)

Arizona 10-6 (7.5)

San Francisco 9-7 (10.5)

St. Louis 8-8 (7.5)

Obviously the class of the NFC is the West. Last year's two best teams and the year's biggest playoff snub are all found in this division. And then you have the Rams who are just some competent QB play away from possibly storming up the ladder after they have really solidified the trenches on both sides. 

Seattle has to still be the favorite although I don't think enough is being made of the diminishing passing game weapons. They have the home field advantage and the phenomenal defense, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few upsets this year because they can't score on some days. It will also be interesting to see how the physical secondary takes to the new penalty emphasis on physical CB play, which the NFL should just be honest and call it the Seahawks Enforcement Protocol. Still, they are young, they are the defending champs, and with Pete Carroll at the helm, they will know how to avoid the dreaded plague of excess where everyone tells them how good they are all year and they play poorly because they think they can just show up.

I believe in Bruce Arians. I'll ignore the fact I'm picking a Carson Palmer led team to the playoffs. I believe in Bruce Arians. I'll ignore the fact that one of the sparks to their fantastic defense, Tyrann Mathieu, may not be the same speed he was last year. I believe in Bruce Arians. I'll overlook the fact they are putting so much of their offense in the hands of a a sub-200 lb RB. I believe in Bruce Arians. No team will be more motivated after what happened last year to make the playoffs and I think this team can be scary. Yes, I believe in Bruce Arians. 

No, all of my San Francisco fans who read my blog, I am not trying to troll you. I, and you, should have very serious concerns about the defense. Navarro Bowman is gone for a long time. Aldon Smith is gone for a long time. Glenn Dorsey is gone for a long time. Donte Whitner is gone and the rest of the secondary outside of Eric Reid is in flux. This will not be the same 49ers defense we've seen the last 3 years. Which puts it more on the offense and specifically on Harbaugh and Kaep to figure it out. I wonder how well this offense will play when it plays from behind double digits as I think they will find themselves more often than the last couple of years. I'm just not sure how comfortable Harbaugh and Roman are getting into shootouts. The margin of error is so small in this division, that missing so many key defensive players for so many weeks will put San Francisco in that Carolina camp of falling behind early and scrambling to catch up. 

St. Louis is a total wild card. Much of it depends on Sam Bradford. I think we have enough evidence to show he's a bust as a #1 overall pick, but has also shown enough ability to get it done. If he stays healthy and continues showing that ability to get it done, St. Louis is a surprise team for sure as they have such a good D-line and very strong O-line, and of course a coach you can trust in Jeff Fisher. But I'd like them more if they weren't playing Seattle, Arizona, and San Francisco 6 times this year. 

Playoff Teams: Philadelphia, New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit, Seattle, and Arizona
NFC Champ Game: Seattle at Chicago
NFC Champ: Chicago

And with that I've stuck my head out there for the NFC. The AFC will come later this week. 

Where'd I put that fork?

(Ed. Note: I wrote this the night of Miami's Game 4 loss. A Post Script below addresses Game 5)

Lets get this out of the way: The Miami Heat are done. Everyone wearing a black and red jersey in Miami has one of these sticking out of their backs: 

Last post I wrote that the Spurs would win in 6. This was a mistake for two reasons, 1) I forgot that the Finals format was now 2-2-1-1-1 instead of 2-3-2. Spurs in 6 would have them winning in Miami (like they should have done last year) and 2) I grossly overestimated the Heat's roster despite giving them only marginal credit to begin with. 

As I said last week, this season pits a team that should have won in 6 and had a good shot to win in 7 that got better versus a team that clearly got worse. But how much worse was unknown. I said the Heat went through nobodies to get to the Finals and its bearing itself out in these Finals. No one could really know how good this team was playing playoff novice Charlotte, beyond over the hill New Jersey, and they need to be committed to a mental ward (or maybe just Stephenson) Indiana. 2 of those teams would not have even made the Western Conference final 8 if you factor in the switch in schedules as well. Well, San Antonio is showing us what the Heat were, an aging, tired team, with the world's greatest player. They are slowly morphing into that 2007 Cavaliers team that LeBron put on his back and hiked to the Finals before getting housed by San Antonio. 

Lets investigate the warts that have been uncovered. Dwyane Wade is breaking down. Plain and simple. If you can't bring it physically in the NBA Finals after missing nearly 30 games on a "maintenance" schedule and playing 15 of some of the least grueling playoff games ever to prelude a Finals appearance it's time to transition your game. Dwyane can't cover anyone and that's the start as to why San Antonio is crushing it on offense at a historic level. People forget how important Dwyane was to the team defense. You didn't just have one perimeter defender than can go man on ball without help, you had two. It set the tone for the entire defensive set. Instead of help defenders rotating off to help Wade now as he's getting passed by anyone wearing silver and black, the other defenders could stay home. You've seen how much ball movement has left Miami's usually staunch half court defense in disarray. Watch how bad he is on defense now. You don't have to go any farther than 1:30 into the video before you find Danny Green -- DANNY GREEN -- abusing him on a baseline drive forcing rotating help.

Ok fine, he's loafing on defense so he can contribute on offense, because you've gotta score to keep up  with this version of the Spurs, right? Wrong. Go back to that video. Almost as glaring as the defensive mishaps pointed out by that glorious green arrow is Dwyane Wade's poor offense setting up his poor defense. Dwyane was a much different player in 2011 when he would've been Finals MVP if Miami didn't get beat by the better team. Dwyane Wade now needs to become what Manu Ginobili is, what Jason Terry reinvented himself as: The 6th Man. Blasphemous, maybe, but those 28 games off, and the craptacular performance so far in 4 games against a good team says otherwise. 

Dwyane can clearly alter a game in spurts, especially against a second unit. Ginobili and Terry have done it for years with less physical gifts than i assume Dwyane still possesses. But Dwyane has been asked to play 33,  34, 36, and 33 minutes. That is too many. This isn't meant to be a slight on Wade even though I despise him when he was basically given any foul shot he wanted in the 2006 Finals, this is just reality for a player who is 32 years old and has nearly 12 full seasons on his body, playoffs included. He played hard in his career and he's paying for it now. But this is something he needs to recognize and accept, he's not a starter anymore. Especially going forward. Which actually makes this offseason interesting. More on that later. 

Wart number two is Mario Chalmers. People have been blasting this kid these Finals. Historically bad numbers for a starter, horrible fouls (his elbow flagrant at San Antonio in Game Two should've made this a sweep), and general lack of basketball acumen for four games. I'm going to reverse course on him. I never thought he was any good. When you are the fourth, sometimes fifth best offensive player on the court for your team, its not hard to carve out a little niche as a wide open three point shooter. He's never been a guy that made anyone on the floor better. But here's whats happening: Dwyane Wade is getting exposed and Chris Bosh has been relegated to something like an overgrown Mike Miller. This is putting the spotlight on Chalmers to both make something happen offensively  and contribute defensively. He was never a good offensive player so that is out of the question and defensively he used to be the stay at home guy on perimeter players when people would drive and kick on James or Wade. He can't play man on ball defense at all and its why Parker and even Patty Mills is abusing him. I don't blame Chalmers. He was never good, but he's been the best Miami has been able to grab at Point Guard since Bosh and James came to town. Life was good when your'e the fourth or fifth option on offense grabbing open looks off a James or Wade drive and playing stay at home on the spot up shooter defense while James and Wade go man on ball. Chalmers, your time is up as a starter. You'll be a backup somewhere next year. 

Wart number three is Chris Bosh. This one isn't really his fault either. Or maybe it is. Chris Bosh came to Miami from Toronto as a jack of all trades freak on offense at the Power Forward spot. He was a lot like Dirk Nowtizki if Dirk could play above the rim but without the need to shoot outside so much. He could shoot the three and posterize people.  When you watch that replay you see a lot of isolation and dribble drive from Bosh. Something that LeBron and Dwyane did at least equally as well, but probably not better. So what room was there for Bosh in that half court offense? The truth is there was none. 

Bosh chose the path of the ring over the stardom. It's a choice we all say we would make if we were athletes and the one we always want our best to make, but deep down I think we make it too easy on ourselves. Watch those highlights again. That is not the Chris Bosh people know. People have forgotten what Chris Bosh might have been if he chose to maybe be the first or second banana on a team with some skill, a la Chicago instead of Boozer, or even New York instead of Amare. So from that perspective, what Chris Bosh has become as a man who is a spot up shooter when the dribble drive breaks down the defense is somewhat his fault.

But, I'm not going to exonerate Spoelstra. I think this season was a fantastic opportunity to unleash Bosh again. LeBron and Wade were going through maintenance and in some cases just mailing in games during the regular season. Bosh was 29 this year and easily had the least mileage on his legs compared to James and Wade. Spoelstra instead makes Bosh his new Mike Miller. Bosh never had more than 21 3s made in a season before this year. In the regular season this year? 74! I refuse to believe Bosh has lost those physical gifts you saw on that video. Instead Bosh refuses to assert himself, content to be 3rd banana while Wade breaks down and Spoelstra relies too much on what worked 3-4 years ago. Why is Popovich successful after 15 years with aging superstars? Because he changed. He changed his offensive and defenseive philosophies with the times and his personnel. Spoelstra just went through the motions of what has worked since 2012. This series could be very different if Bosh was made 2nd banana from the outset this year. Duncan and Parker almost feel invisible from these Finals because the other guys are stepping up so big. 

The last wart is that bench. Battier, Haslem, James Jones. These guys used to swing games on their own. Now they are invisible. Meanwhile, Patty Mills, Diaw/Splitter, and the immortal Manu Ginobili are carving up the Heat in both first team and second team sets. Why? Because Popovich played them all 20+ mins a game in the regular season. These aren't guys who are being inserted to try to find a spark. These are seasoned veterans. The Heat got by the last few years with a number of bench specialists. But they are failing now. This is the easiest cure for Miami, but based on the first three warts it won't matter. 3/5 of Miami's starting lineup is playing well below what we've seen before and there is nothing to indicate it won't continue. Miami's lack of bench production is compounding those first three problems.

So, stick a fork in them they are done. But, to make this a little more light-hearted let's play some what-ifs. 

1. What if the Big Three opt out of their contracts and then re-sign for less to make room for Carmelo?

I fail to see how this strategy helps Miami. Sure you get Carmelo to help with the scoring load, but that hasn't exactly been the problem in Miami. It's the waning team defense. Carmelo offers no help in that department. The only way this strategy helps is if Dwyane takes a humongous pay cut to 6th man status, and Bosh and Lebron take big cuts to allow Miami to rebuild their depth. Because, honestly, I do not see Carmelo making it cheap on Miami. If this happens and everyone re-ups for 2-3 more years with the addition of Carmelo, you might see the Heat in the Finals one or two more times because of the sheer incompetence of the East, but that is far from a championship team. 

2. This was a fun one I made up with a friend the other day. What if Duncan retires after winning this championship and LeBron decides to fill the void in San Antonio?

Couldn't this be a mtach made in heaven. LeBron gets to a competent organization that knows how to adapt to the times and personnel, and knows how to cultivate role players. Teh run a such a precision passing offense now that LeBron would fit right in. He'd upgrade what is not the most stellar defense and, while Ginobili has very little left down the road, Parker and Leonard plus role players and Popovich form a very formidable contender. If this scenario were to ever happen I actually think LeBron could win more championships in San Antonio than he's going to win in Miami. This scenario isn't as far fetched as it sounds, if LeBron is serious about getting the rings.

3. What is LeBron opts out and goes to Cleveland?

Well, I guess Cleveland would be a contender in the East again, but why go play with the babies? Kyrie has never won anything and whoever they pick first will have been eliminated in the first or second round of the NCAAs in their only meaningful postseason experience.  Plus, Cleveland has proved less than competent in rebuilding themselves since LeBron left four years ago. All they have to show for it is no playoffs and 3 #1 overall picks. LeBron would be crazy to go there, even if it is a homecoming and the path back to the Finals is paved with gold in the East. 

Also, what happens to Bosh and Wade? If LeBron opts out, you have difficult choices. Wade will not make nearly as much money anywhere else if he opts out. Also who knows how many more years he has. Wade has to stay. But, what about Bosh? Stay and re-reinvent yourself? Become the alpha Heat? Without LeBron, the Heat are 7th in the East, at best. LeBron opting out would make Bosh one of the top free agents, again, and several contenders and would be contenders could go after him. Despite being relegated to Mike Miller status, he could actually command a bigger payday than he is getting now. 

4. What if all three refuse to exercise their ETO?

In all likelihood the Heat would go back to their fifth straight NBA Finals, second all time to the Celtics who did it 10 times when there were like 5 teams in the 50s-60s and none of them had a huge black guy named Bill Russell. But it wont be easy.  The East is just that bad. With only Norris Cole under contract next year, Miami will have to rebuild around another 5 very cheap but reliable bench and role players with limited resources. The good news is they can basically push the role player reset button around Wade, Bosh, and LeBron. This gives them a great advantage. But I think to win it all again they would need to reevaluate how they use Wade and Bosh going forward.

POST SCRIPT

Last night was inevitable and further proves my point that Miami has more issues than just Dwyane Wade. There was one possession where Miami had the ball and Tony Parker was defending Chris Bosh. Bosh didn't get one look on that possession. Miami has to reevaluate how they play offense. They need to get more defensive wing specialists too. For my money of those 4 options above I think all three will remain in Miami to chase yet another Finals appearance.

Congratulations to the Spurs and I am especially proud of my Mavericks for pushing the eventual champs to the brink and giving them their toughest series in the playoffs. Now the offseason fun begins with Miami's three, Carmelo, and some other noteworthy pieces up fro free agency this offseason.

Like a phoenix I rise from the ashes...

A year hiatus is long enough don't you think? Having a kid is a great experience I wouldn't trade for the world but priorities certainly shift and time becomes even more of a premium than before. Looking back it appears my last post was about the 2013 NBA Finals, makes sense I should make a comeback during the 2014 NBA Finals. In order to knock the rust off, I'll do a rapid fire potpourri regarding a number of different fun story lines that have recently occurred. I'm happy to back, hope you're happy to have me back. 

BASKETBALL

This is a 2 for 1. We get the Heat and Spurs again for our first Finals rematch since Bulls/Jazz in the 90s. I think this was the result we were inexorably traveling towards since about March. It was clear at that point the Pacers were too flawed in some regard (coaching, mental toughness, locker room?) and that the rest of the East wasn't good enough to hold the Heat's collective jock strap. Meanwhile the Spurs were cruising towards the best record in the NBA and even though OKC had swept San Antonio 4-0 in their season series this year, no one in San Antonio was panicking. After all, the playoffs are a whole different ball of wax. We know what happened next: The Heat basically steamrolled through the East. The Spurs had to battle hard to beat one of the greatest 8th seeds the NBA has ever seen, took advantage of a young team that didn't know what they were doing, and took care of business against the Thunder, including beating them twice when they had Ibaka, and winning the series in Oklahoma City, which was basically the Spurs' House of Horrors for the last few seasons. 

For the NBA this was about as good of a series as they could hope for. I wrote about this last year and I'm sticking by it even more, I think the NBA is suffering through more of a talent drain than most experts think. This playoffs you were looking at maybe 4.5 viable championship teams our of a league of 30. The Eastern Conference had 1.5: the Heat and the Pacers. The Heat were obvious, but the Pacers were a contender until they inexplicably self-destructed for no good reason other than Danny Granger got traded? The East was terrible. In the West, even though the teams were much better there were only 3 real contenders: San Antonio, OKC, and the Clippers. Houston is fatally flawed on defense, Portland is fatally flawed on defense and with experience, Golden State was missing their key interior defender, Memphis couldnt score, and Dallas lacked just enough defense to get them over the hump. 

Look at where all the best players in the league are: Lebron James, Chris Paul, Tim Duncan, Blake Griffin, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, Paul George. Sure you have some outliers like Steph Curry, Carmelo Anthony, LaMarcus Aldridge, James Harden, and Kevin Love, but most of the All-NBA talent is confined within the 4.5 championship contenders. The league is a long way from parity and guys liek Embiid, Wiggins, and Parker are going to be mired on terrible eastern conference teams and none of them have the ability or pedigree of a Lebron James to simply will their team to the NBA Finals. The NBA is in trouble from a excitement perspective and there is no end in sight. 

For posterity's sake I have the Spurs in 6, assuming Tony Parker's health. Thats basically what it was last year when the Heat had home court advantage if not for just small amount of bad luck and poor execution at the end. Now the Spurs have homecourt (if you dont think that matters for such a veteran team I direct you to the OKC series Games 1-5), Manu Ginobili looks much healthier and spry coming into this series and I think San Antonio's bench will run circles around the Heat's bench. All of this is enough to make up the difference from last year and give San Antonio another title. 

In a victory for the NBA, they were finally able to justify the ouster of one of the most onerous and team-unfriendly owners in all of professional sports: Donald Sterling. This was long overdue and had he engaged in his housing discrimination during the social media era he would have been out back in the 90s. He was notoriously cheap and enjoyed running a terrible product out there every year. He lucked into Chris Paul and Blake Griffin and Doc Rivers and it gives me a small sense of satisfaction that he wont be around to enjoy actual success. Sure he gets to split 2 billion with his equally onerous "wife," which is more like 1.4 billion after capital gains taxes, but the league and sports world is a better place without him. 

And for you First Amendment "scholars" and to Mark Cuban who was equivocating on whether hed vote Sterling out, the First Amendment is a protection from interference by the government. When you are a key member of a business and you hurt not only the business as a whole but the other 29 business partners you pay the price. Sterling couldn't stay. The Clippers would have been an economic drain on the league until he left. So while Adam Silver did the easy thing in immediately canning him, it also doubled as the right thing. Good job NBA, now work on a scenario where more teams are competitive. 

SOCCER

World Cup is here!! I don't follow soccer that regularly, though I do follow international things such as WC Qualifying, Gold Cup, etc..and the World Cup is far and away my favorite sporting event, beating out the Summer Olympics (#2) and March Madness (#3). The pageantry, patriotism, and  fanaticism in the World Cup far outstrips the Summer Olympics and the talent level and skill far outstrips those competing in March Madness. 

In case you've been living under a rock, the U.S National Team drew probably the toughest group of the 8 having to play world ranked #2 Germany and #3 Portugal, as well as a Ghana team that has eliminated them in each of the last two World Cups, though isn't expected to be as good this year. Also, the most iconic American player Landon Donovan was left off the initial World Cup roster. Clearly the general public was disgusted by the idea that he would be left off, but American fans need to place their trust in Manager Jorgen Klinsmann. He has been very successful in every coaching stop including as the US coach with historic wins inside Estadio Azteca in Mexico City and against Italy in Italy. He knows what he's doing. The warm up friendlies thus far have borne this out as the US has won its first 2 of 3 home soil friendlies scheduled in advance of the World Cup including a victory over a Turkey squad which hadn't lost in a year. Unfortunately, I think the defense is bad enough that they won't be able to secure the win against Ghana and draws against Portugal and Germany they'll need to advance. But it won't be because Landon Donovan was left off. 

For posterity's sake, I think the final four standing will be Brazil, Germany, Argentina and Uruguay (sorry Spain) with a Brazil/Argentina final and Argentina walking away with the golden trophy. The world's best player (Lionel Messi) in his prime on one of the world's best teams (Argentina) with a near home field advantage will be enough to overcome a powerful Brazil side that does have home field advantage. Those semi final games will be fantastic, especially the Brazil/Germany one I predict will happen. Either way there are some great teams, great players, and great excitement ahead in what is the best sporting competition out there. Sit back and enjoy!

FOOTBALL

The NFL Draft, the most "exciting" event in the offseason, came and went last month. While I enjoy seeing where some of my favorite-to-watch college football players go, as well as what idiotic things the Cowboys will do this year, actually watching even the 1st round of the draft is horrible. I just cannot stand the cadence by which Mel Kiper talks, I cannot stand Chris Berman stumbling over his words or awkwardly trying to fill in random gaps of silence, and I cannot stand Jon Gruden creaming his pants over every QB. The only entertaining part was the unintentional comedy of Ray Lewis offering "analysis" on draft picks. "This guy's is a player," or "this guy can flat out player," or "this guy is a difference maker." Why is Ray Lewis even there? I dont really know how to make something better when it simply consists of waiting in 10 minute increments for Roger Goodell to announce a name while a few drunk football fans in Radio Music City Hall boo or cheer. Meh. You can do better NFL, I trust you.  

As for the draft itself, I absolutely think the Texans made the right decision taking Clowney. He was unfairly panned his junior year for what was obviously a half-assed effort because he didn't want to tear an ACL a la Aaron Murray or Zach Mettenberger (who i think would've been a 2nd round QB if not for that tear after all was said and done.) Also he had very little help from his defensive teammates. As Gruden correctly pointed out, when someone made the mistake of not double teaming him he caused havoc. The Texans offense wasn't an issue last year, it was the defense. To pair him with an equally talented DL who causes havoc by himself will be a great asset. 

If Jacksonville wasn't intent on starting their rookie QB why take him #3 overall when hes not a fantastic prospect. I dont have an opinion one way or another on Bortles other than he was obviously very good in college for a mediocre team. But for a team in need of a million playmakers and one that has stated they will not start Bortles if they can help it why not choose someone else like Khalil Mack and then get a 2nd round QB? Didn't make a lot of sense to me. Jacksonville will be in London or LA before we know it. 

Johnny Football. First, thank god he didn't get drafted by the Cowboys. That would've been too much and obviously a waste of a pick. I watched a lot of Johnny Football being a Florida and SEC fan (yay SEC Network!!!) and he's not an NFL QB. I'm sorry. People make claims like well he did eviscerate Alabama twice, to which I said, so did Tebow, and Alabama, especially this year was not their usual great defensive team. He can prove people wrong but he has a lot of things going against him: his size (this isn't thick ass Russell Wilson we're talking about), his mechanics (lousy), and his football IQ (non-existent, Texas A&M didn't have a playbook!) Jaworski was actually right on about something, he was not a first round talent, he was better suited to the 3rd or 4th where there wouldn't be the pressure to get him in right away. 

The rest of the first round: I really liked what New Orleans did basically replacing Sproles with Brandin Cook. Be true to yourself, New Orleans makes the playoffs every year with its offense, you don't know how long you'll have Brees so take advantage. San Francisco made a great pick, notwithstanding whatever might happen with Aldon Smith, and Navarro Bowman's injury, San Francisco needed to improve that secondary. As i said to one of my many 49er fan friends you gotta love a safety/nickel corner that lead his team in tackles. He's a tough nosed player that will fit right in immediately. While I imagine a lot of Raiders fans would've loved to see Watkins in silver and black I loved the Mack pick. Oakland is quietly building a decent team especially on defense. Urban Meyer, Ohio State coach, said the best defensive player he played against was Khalil Mack, who played for a small school. Meyer picked him over every other decent Big 10 defensive player he saw that year. Good job Oakland, you are slowly reinventing yourself for the best.

I obviously didn't like Cleveland's taking Johnny Football, but I didn't like their first pick of Gilbert either. You are already sitting on Joe Haden, you need front 7 help and Aaron Donald out of Pitt is still sitting there to anchor your D line. Future still looks bleak in Cleveland. Buffalo sold the farm for Sammy Watkins, a fantastic player to watch at Clemson, one of my favorite, but he's the type of luxury you sell the farm for if he makes you a contender. Buffalo had more warts that another multifunction Clemson weapon like CJ Spiller wont be able to fix. Good job Dallas you took the safe pick and not Manziel. I'm so proud. 

Well it is nice to be back, here's hoping it's not another year before my next post! As always feel free to comment below or make suggestions for story lines you want to get The

Profssor's treatment.

2013 NBA Swan Song

Always best to leave commentary on a 7 game back and forth NBA Finals until a few days (in this case nearly 2 weeks) have passed to let the dust settle. Begrudgingly, congratulations to the Miami Heat. They really earned that one and by having the current best player in the world on their roster they were able to push over the top. Let's start with him as we run down some of the key players and people of the NBA Finals:

LeBron James - Well we can now put to rest any questions of his "legacy" in terms of championships. He's got multiple titles and was the best player on his team for those titles. Not like Juwan Howard wearing a suit to get a ring. This is justified, he never deserved some of the flack he received, but again, he invited it with the way he joined the Heat. Also, it is clear after talking with some people that my LBJ comments weren't well received. It's not a popular theory to question the best player in the world in his prime, but I stand by my comments. I'm still not sure he can  be the best player on his team at age 33, 34, 35 like Michael and Kobe. I will grant that his shooting barrage in Game 7 was impressive to an extent, since he did make nearly everything he put up, but he was also as wide open as you can get in the NBA for many of those shots. When he's less physically imposing 4-5 years down the road it becomes easier to get up on LeBron the way Paul George did in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. I'm glad it took him 10 years to learn how to hit an open jumper, if it takes him 10 more years to figure out how to hit a contested jumper, LeBron certainly won't win any more titles as the best player on his team. But for now, the King reigns supreme.

Tim Duncan - What a shame for Timmy. He threw down a classic closeout game in Game 6:  30 pts, 17 reb only to watch his team piss it away in the last 30 seconds. With a chance to take matters into his own hands in Game 7 he missed a point blank runner over Shane Battier he has probably made 1,538,204,302 times before in games and practice. That was all she wrote for the Spurs at that point. No one will question Tim Duncan's legacy. Not after a decade and a half of keeping his head down, working hard, and being so consistently good night in and night out even into his Age 37 season. Seriously, you want the model of consistency? Check out his Per 36 Minute numbers for his entire career here. It's incredible. He's like a robot. People think this was Tim Duncan's last hurrah, that once Westbrook gets back, that once Doc Rivers and Chris Paul are finalized as Clippers, that once Memphis grows up for good, the Spurs will be relegated to the middle tier in the West. I find that to be more questionable than those who were attacking LeBron's legacy at age 28. Tim Duncan is certainly older, and missing that runner shows his age, but he was throwing down 40+ minutes in 3 games in 5 nights and didn't miss a beat. Picking against Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan is like picking against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Yes they both haven't won a title in years, but they are always as good of a bet to get one as anybody. As a Mavericks fan, I won't feel safe until Tim Duncan retires for good.

Dwyane Wade - Man, he looks ragged. Remember the days when Dwyane Wade would explode to the basket throw up some crazy layup attempt, have it go in, get fouled, and crash to the floor? Those days are gone. G-O-N-E. There are two people whose "epitaphs" I'm ready to write after that series and Wade is one of them. What we are talking about here isn't that Wade won't be valuable in some capacity, it's that he is simply Dwyane Wade 2.0 now and not in a good way. Sure, he got in the way back machine Game 7 and started hitting everything from the same spot on the floor, but when you watch him, it seems like he's so easy to guard now. He's become a slash and kick player the same way Steve Nash is. He's no threat to go to the basket and that's where you saw so many 14 point games from him. We do have to take into account that he is actually 31 years old unlike LeBron at 28 and we also have to take into account that Wade absorbed as much contact in his career as LeBron has, only he doesn't have the body to take it the way LeBron does. Wade had a great run, but he's a sixth man at this point in his career. Can't argue with 3 rings though.

Tony Parker - I never liked his game. Ever. He can't defend and for a decade he couldn't shoot either. He still can't shoot that well, but at least he can make a basket outside the paint now. He's like a poor man's Steve Nash to me at the same points in their career. Which bodes well for Tony, I think he still has years to go in this league, but I think his game is too static and if I was Popovich it'd give me a heart attack every time he starts weaving around defenders like its a dog agility course or something. People remember the ridiculous buzzer beater in Game 1 that sealed the deal for San Antonio, but many people don't remember how out of control he was. He single-handedly botched that entire play and really got lucky to get off the shot in time. Even looking at his stats for the series they were mediocre. I couldn't believe that prior to hurting himself in the regular season there was talks of him as 2nd or 3rd in the MVP race. Sure, he's better than Gary Neal and many other starting point guards in the league, but he went into this series overrated and got exposed some.
















Chris Bosh - Ha. Hahahaha. I'm tired of people defending him on various grounds like: 1) Oh he'd be the best player on almost any other team; 2) They don't use him right; 3) There's just not enough ball to go around. First, he wouldn't even be the best player on all of the lottery teams from this year. So stop. Please. He was a good player on a bad team who had NOBODY else. Someone has to score 22 points a game on the team when you have nobody else. Look at DeMarcus Cousins of the Kings. He's skilled and has some talent, maybe as much as Chris Bosh, but would you really say he could be the best player on almost every other team? No. They don't use him right is a bizarre argument. How else are they supposed to use him? A back to the basket post player? Do you see how badly he got abused trying to bang bodies with any good big man? Believe me if he could play like that now, Spoelstra would use him like that. Having a good low post player helps immensely in today's NBA offense. It forces teams to crash down low opening up the 2-3 shooters that Miami likes to have on the floor at the same time. It also gives LeBron and Dwyane a low post pass option as they drive and draw the low post defender. So if he could play that way, I'm betting he would be asked to play that way. Lastly, this was Bosh's best opportunity to get the ball. Dwyane was miserable the last two rounds of the postseason. He could have stepped up and made himself a force as the second banana to LeBron. He shrank from the moment. He was even worse than Dwyane for those same series. How many times did he see him miss a wide open shot followed by his Ostrich scream and being upset with himself. I wonder if being the 3rd or 4th option on the floor at times just stunted his offensive prime. It has to be hard to be motivated to work on your game if you've spent most of the last three years watching LeBron or Wade or Wide Open Shooter X run much of Miami's offense. It's not so much that Miami needs to trade him, because really he's a fresher body than Wade and if he put his big boy pants on hed should be the more valuable piece over the next 2-3 years. It's more that Bosh needs to get out of there if he wants to prove he's more than just a sidekick. Besides how can you trust a guy who celebrates championships with a sexual champagne shower photo one year, followed by confetti stuck to his face the next? The guy is just a tool.

Manu Ginobili - Yeah, not much to say about him. Those 8 turnovers in Game 6 were pretty embarrassing and he was marginalized for the first 4 games of the series. He had the huge Game 5 and a decent bounceback Game 7 but I think we forget that he's turning 36 this summer. It doesn't feel like he should be as old as Duncan, but he was stashed in Argentina for a few years before finally breaking in with the Spurs. Of any of the so-called "Big 3" (I hate that phrase, it should be reserved solely for a coalition of world leaders that put differences aside, came together to fight mutual enemies, and changed the history of the world. Not three great to semi-decent basketball players on one team. That's really lazy to use that phrase for them and inappropriate given where it came from) for either team, I think Manu is the most likely candidate to be dumped, retire, or have his role sharply reduced. It's just time. There no reason he can't be a Big Shot Rob for the next couple of years giving you 17 minutes a game of change of pace offense and lightning in a bottle. But the days of Manu getting 25 minutes a game should be done.

Ray Allen - Best shooter of all time. Period. Sorry Reggie. This shouldn't mean that he's a top 40 or 50 player of all time, because he's not. It took him teaming up with two better players in Boston and three better players in Miami to barely win two titles. Ray Allen also was the epitome of what this generation's NBA is like: "I'll go anywhere for a title shot. Even if I already won one." Jumping from the Celtics to the Heat was a good move for Ray Allen's jewelry collection but it still rubs me the wrong way that a guy could jump to a rival, especially one that they almost beat in a grueling Eastern Conference Finals in 2012, but that's professional sports in the age of free agency. The rivalries are only for the fans now, not the players. But Ray Allen cemented the best shooter ever legacy with that ultra-clutch game-tying three in Game 6.

Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Gary Neal - Maybe it's unfair to lump Kawhi Leonard in with these two since he's a better, and more dynamic, player. But it's the new guard for the Spurs that provided electric moments for them in these Finals and may be poised to be even more effective in 2013-2014. By the end of the series, Kawhi was easily the second best player on the Spurs offering his best defense of LeBron (which was decent for the second-year player) and a new sense of confidence on offense. The Spurs remain in good hands.

Chris Andersen - All I can think about is whether he will decline the actual Finals ring and tattoo the ring on his finger. Every time I look at him I feel like his neck tattoos are strangling him. I will say this. He earned his ring. He worked hard in the ECF and the Finals to get some time on the floor and do his best to contribute.

Mike Miller/Shane Battier - Spoelstra nearly let Mike Miller's "Olé" defense beat him. I don't know how you can really find too much use for Mike Miller anymore. He gives up more points than he contributes.. Sure he's a better pure shooter than Battier, but Battier showed in Game 7 he's the better all around player. If Battier doesn't show up Game 7, the Spurs may have won. By all accounts, Battier is one of the nicest players around and a great diplomat for the sport, notwithstanding an interview he gave on Mike and Mike shortly after the Finals were over where he said he didn't join the others at the club but went to a secluded bar where he could just be himself and dance on the bar. I thought that was a great story.

Gregg Popovich - The Legend. Even without this win I seriously think he belongs on the Coaching Moutn Rushmore with Phil Jackson and Red Auerbach. Spoelstra gets credit for designing a small-ball offense that actually wins championships but the Spurs offense is simply beautiful to watch. Some will detract from him and say well he didn't have to go through a healthy Thunder team, but really, what he did in dismantling the Grizzlies who everyone thought was the best shot to beat Miami is more than enough to counter those claims that the Spurs didn't really earn it. I hate the Spurs, I hate Popovich, I hate Duncan, I hate Ginobili, I hate Parker, but I really respect them. The hate is probably boiled down to being division rivals and just pure jealousy of how the Spurs have conducted themselves as a franchise since Duncan and Popovich came on board.

Erik Spoelstra - This guy has the thankless job of coaching the best player in the world and the lack of respect that comes with it. If the Heat lose, it's his fault. If they win, it's LeBron's vicotry. I do give him that credit for coming out of the film room as a tech and designing a decent offense that focuses on the skills of his players (something D'Antoni should have learned by now). But really, everytime someone identifies keys to beating the Heat, it's limiting turnovers and keeping them out of transition. Their half-court offense is decent at best but often times bogs down horribly bad. I don't think he'll ever win coach of the year but it takes a lot to maintain control of a team with as many stars and perceived stars as there are on this roster.

The NBA Officials - No one talked about them once. That was the best officiated Finals I've ever seen or can ever remember. Good job refs for letting the players decide this one.

The NBA - I think we may have just watched the Swan Song for the Heat and the Spurs in their present forms as NBA Title contenders. I have a hard time believing the Heat can three-peat based on their lack of a killer instinct, Wade's aging knees, and just the sheer mileage put on their collective bodies going to 3 straight Finals. I think the Pacers (and possibly the Bulls) will finally get the Heat's number in the postseason. I also have a hard time believing a 38 year old Duncan and Company can lead the Spurs back after the gargantuan effort put forth to come up short. They will be professionals and they will still be a tough out but i think it's a tall task to ask that they get back. I think we may have just watched the best NBA Finals we are going to see in the next 10 years.

Where Do We Stand on LeBron James?

If you missed Part 1 find it here. We left off deciding that the 2013 Miami Heat, besides its incredible 27 game winning streak, just aren't among the league's elite. I love that Simmons picked up on it a week after I did: legacies. But the reality is this Miami team is just not dominant enough to be a top 10 all time even if they won Games 5 and 6. Well, they lost Game 5 in shocking fashion by getting lit up by the artist formerly known as Manu Ginobili, giving up 110 points and 60% shooting.  No top 10 team of all time gets blasted like that in Game 5 of the NBA Finals in a 2-2 series. It just doesn't happen.  That's not to take away from what Miami has done this year. They are in the Finals for the 3rd straight year, they won 66 games, and an amazing 27 games overall. But when we discuss GOATs you have to hold a team to an extraordinarily high standard. Miami didn't meet it this year.

So that leaves us with LeBron. We seemingly reassess this guy's legacy every time there is a big game. Weren't we just here in Game 7 of this year's Eastern Conference Finals? It's not fair for the guy since he is undoubtedly one of the greatest players of all time (Top 10 for sure) and one of the most versatile greatest players of all time since Magic Johnson. But, what LeBron has done is unique compared to the greats he is often judged against. It starts with his "Decision" and ends with the "Miami Heat Victory Party" before they even won a game. He marginalized himself. No one else is to blame.  He made his free agency decision a national spectacle and then contributed to the Count that will live in infamy Not 1, Not 2, Not 3, Not 4.... And really that's 90% of the reason he has to stand up and answer these legacy questions every time there is a pivotal game. The other 10%? Game 3 of the NBA Finals this year. No legend has such a loss of confidence and such a conspicuous no-show as LeBron had and did in Game 3. 7-21 for 15 points. Sure, LeBron does not need to score to have an impact, he did after all have 11 boards and 5 assists. But he had a whopping -32 while on the floor and just looked lost and confused out there. Then comes back, as he has in all the games this year when the Heat lost and threw down monster performances.

Can we really take LeBron seriously in GOAT conversations when he requires extrinsic motivation like having his back against the wall? Michael did it to murder his opponent's soul. Kobe does it in his ever relentless quest to get better. LeBron is simply gifted with so much overall talent he gets bored. We, as fans who judge who the best of our sports are, take it as an insult that a player with so many gifts gets bored with them and needs to pander to the lowest common denominator. Fans are used to seeing the best of the best operate with a cutthroat mentality and desire to not only win, but destroy.  LeBron seems content to waste NBA Finals games in order to give him the edge he needs to win the series. Fine, the goal is to win rings, but let's not pretend that LeBron has approached anything near the level of domination the way Jordan, Bird, Russell, Magic, and Kobe ever approached the game at its pinnacle. LeBron is simply Shaq in his prime. An unstoppable force when he wanted to be, aloof other times it suited him. And that is really where the career legacy of LeBron should start and stop. He plays the game liek Magic did, but not to the same level of excellence. He is physically imposing just like Shaq and that's where his dominance lies, in his physical attributes.

I have often questioned what LeBron's second career will look like. LeBron is finishing his 10th year where hes been to the playoffs 8 times and the Finals 4. But what will happen to LeBron in this second decade? Is he actually skilled enough to do what Duncan has done for 16 years? Be the same guy night in, night out for 16 years. Duncan's per 36 minute numbers are nearly identical every season. Does he have the drive enough to change his game and give himself longevity the way Kobe and Jordan did by evolving their talents? Or will he simply believe he can rely on his imposing physical talents the next 5 years? Shaq peaked in years 8-9, maintained a just past peak level in years 10-11 and then the wagon came apart in year 12 with a little renaissance in year 13 before he was never the same again. Was it a shock that he became marginalized after 13 years? It can't be. He was a physical brute who relied on his size alone. When his body started breaking down from the physical trauma he had nothing left to fall back on. This is why Kobe may still have a few years left even after a full achilles rupture. Kobe evolved his game to be a more deadly jump shooter the way Jordan did. I just cannot see LeBron putting in the same dedication Jordan and Kobe had in changing their games when he already lacks the level of desire that those two shared.

So this is why it's not entirely to early to start putting LeBron in a box. He has shown nothing to us to demonstrate that his second career will be like Birds or Jordans or Kobe's. He was given free reign to bomb jumpers on the Spurs in Game 3 and got scared. Why? Because they were too open, according to DWade? That's terrible. LeBron will go down as the most physically imposing and versatile wing player of all time. He'll go down as one of the greatest on the ball defenders of all time. But even winning this ring what he has shown us to date still can't compare with the greatest of the great players.

And that leads me to my last point. Watching these NBA Finals has signaled something to me that the talking heads haven't quite picked up on yet. We are watching throwback performances from DWade and Manu Ginobili without asking the question: Who is replacing these guys? Dirk, Duncan, Nash, Kobe, Manu, DWade, Garnett, Pierce, Allen, these are all HUGE names from the last decade of NBA basketball that will be out of the league or completely marginalized in 3-4 years. LeBron is exiting his peak. So is Chris Paul. Who are our greatest players of tomorrow? Kevin Durant? Russell Westbrook? Derrick Rose? Paul George? Marc Gasol? Kevin Love? Blake Griffin? Damian Lillard, who won rookie of the year? Anthony Davis?

I feel like the NBA was spoiled this last decade and we are going to enter an era where one team rules them all a la the 1990s Chicago Bulls. Look at that list of potential best in the leaguers. Outside of Durant or Rose there really isn't star power there and there really isn't game changing ability there unless you add in Westbrook.  The league is not in good hands going forward.  The best player in the league is exiting his prime and probably isn't anything better than top 6-7 player of all time in my opinion. Where is Derrick Rose or Kevin Durant going to rank? They are extremely young and judging them now is worse than judging LeBron but after them the jury is out on what the league has left. The influx of talent has been no better in recent years. In 2011, we got Kyrie Irving and that's it. Sure there were fine starters like Klay Thompson and Kawhi Leonard as well but that's it. We can't even judge Kyrie because he hasn't been able to play a full season in college or pro yet. In 2012, we got Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard. I don't think I watched even 12 minutes of them playing. Bradley Beal, Harrison Barnes, and Andre Drummond all stepped up as the season went on but none of them is even a burgeoning star in this league and they were the second tier of rookies we had. 2013 proves to be no better where a team is legitimately contemplating taking a guy with an ACL tear and no sophisticated offensive game with the #1 pick.

The burden is really on Durant and Rose to step up and take over this league the next couple of years. They are marketable, they are talented, and they are young. But Durant was laid bare this postseason as needing another All-NBA teamer in order to succeed and Rose has been blasted nationwide for his "rehab" and disappearance from the 2012-2013 season while the rest of his teammates fought valiantly to make it to the second round of the playoffs. I think in some small way David Stern knew this and timed his exit with that of the players who made this league what it is today.  When he hands it off to Adam Silver he will say look what I turned this league into, knowing full well the dearth of talent entering the NBA and leaving Silver to hold the bag when ratings decline the next half decade.

As a post script before we start Game 6, it is totally NBA like to make headlines with a referee when they have been so good staying out of the spotlight this series. What genius thought it was a good idea to stick Joey Crawford as referee for Game 6 of the NBA Finals with one of the teams being the Spurs? Crawford infamously tossed Tim Duncan for laughing on the bench against the Mavericks a few years ago and there is no question Crawford has it out for him. Why set yourself up like this, NBA? My heart says the Spurs win this in 6 notwithstanding the Miami crowd and Joey Crawford, but as the Heat have done all year they'll do enough to force a Game 7 after a brutal loss in Game 5 and, well, no team leading 3-2 in the NBA Finals has lost Game 6 on the road and then won Game 7 on the road. My head says the Heat win in 7.