Thursday, June 13, 2013

Where Do We Stand on the Heat?

So, I'm sitting here watching Game 4 of the NBA Finals and realized, "Hey, I haven't blogged in forever."  So I have a confession to make. When I blogged it used to be on company time. If I had a couple of down hours I could whip one of these out between taking depositions and answering discovery.  Between a 7 month kid and a new job where I have very little down time and am in court all the time it's been tough. But, don't get me wrong I've wanted to be here a lot. I've had a lot to say too. So I'll continue to try to make it out here, but it just hasn't been easy.

Speaking of Game 4 of the NBA Finals, how about these finals? I think I love nothing better thus far than the crazy pendulum swing of opinions by the ESPN 24 hour talking head news cycle.  You would've thought they learned their lesson in the Indiana-Miami series where no one won a back to back game. Here's a piece of advice, ESPN Analyst Guy, momentum means jackshit between games. Unless a team is grossly outmatched (see: Miami v. Milwaukee) what happened in the preceding games does not carry over to the next game. Injuries aside, of course. The Spurs hitting 16 3 pointers will not carry over the the next game just like San Antonio turning the ball over 17 times and Tim Duncan looking every bit his 37 years of age didn't carry over.  I heard all yesterday and today the trouble Miami is in.  Asking ESPN "experts" on the Daily Dime what trouble Miami was in: "somewhat" or "major" not a single one of the 5 scoffed at the question and everyone one of them said Miami was in some kind of trouble.  That just a complete lack of comprehension about A) 7 game series, and B) The Miami Heat the last 3 years.  It should be no surprise to anyone paying attention that Miami is winning heading into the fourth quarter and that they have been generally playing better tonight.

You know when a team is actually "somewhat" in trouble in a 7 game series? When they are facing multiple elimination games.  That's when you can say a team is in trouble. The defending champs are not in any form of trouble when they are facing a 2-1 deficit in a 7 game series and haven't lost back to back games in months.  Especially when we are talking about the Heat. This team is one of the more enigmatic teams in league history.

Oh look, Miami won.

Their win tonight aside, Miami can't exactly be considered one of the more dominant teams in league history and if this series has proved anything its that LeBron isn't anything close to Michael Jordan. He may be the best player right now, but i still have a hard time believing I'll ever judge him greater than Jordan, Bird, Magic, Russell, or maybe even Tim Duncan, among others. More on LeBron, later. Remember when Miami ripped off that 27 game winning streak and we were talking about where this team would rank all time.  I wouldn't know where to put it without running through a brilliant survey of a top ten all time list provided by Bill Simmons (who else?). This comes straight from his Book of Basketball.  If you havent read it, and love the game of basketball, you have to get it. Easiest 700 page read ever. Before we get there, some key stats from this Miami Heat team giving them the benefit of the doubt by giving them the title and wins in Game 5 and Game 6 (which I don't believe will happen)

66-16 regular season, 16-6 playoffs, 37-4 at home, +7.9 regular season scoring difference, 7.4 playoffs (through game 4 of the Finals), 1st in regular season FG% by 1.5%, tied for first in points per possession, and generally rank in the top 10 in just about every team stat kept by ESPN for the regular season. Now onto the elite 10 according to Simmons, top to bottom:


1. '86 Celtics (shocker Simmons grades his hometown Celtics the best team ever). Some cherry-picked stats from that team: 67-15 regular season, 15-3 playoff record. A ridiculous 40-1 at home. Winning streaks of 14 and 13. +9.4 scoring difference regular season, +10.6 in the playoffs. Won title in 6. Swept Jordan's Bulls when he went for 49 in Game 1 and 63 in Game 2, nearly swept the Hawks with Dominque Wilins the MVP runner-up at the helm, swept a 57-win Milwaukee Bucks team in the finals.

This team had Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Robert Parish, Dennis Johnson, the legendary Bill Walton, and Danny Ainge among others. From just a talent level this team is more complete than this year's Heat. And look, I will be the first to tell you cross generational comparisons are tough.  The league was much more physical and interior oriented in the 80s and 90s, whereas in the 10s you need a stud point guard and as many three point shooters as you can cram onto the court without your defense suffering. But we've seen old-school teams succeed in this era like the Bulls and the Pacers and the Grizzlies so the comparisons still aren't too tough. I don't think he need to go any further, Miami just isn't the best team of all time. Not after that 7 game series against Indiana.


2. '96 Bulls (come on Simmons, you were reaching when you belittled the 72 wins). 72-10 (best all time) regular season record, 39-2 at home, 12.3 regular season scoring difference, 1st in PPG regular season, 2 in PPG allowed regular season, only 2 double digit losses (fewest ever), 15-3 playoffs, 10-0 at home, 10.6 scoring difference in playoffs.

I understand the diluted league argument with Vancouver and Toronto joining the league that year, but come on, the fact that Jordan and Pippen were well past their prime and that's when they won 72? You know what a 33 year old Dwyane Wade and a 30 year old LeBron would do in this league? 60. At best. It still takes talent, chemistry, and a little luck to win 72 when your best players are all in their 30s. But mostly it takes talent and grit. The NBA suffers now what the NBA suffered in 1996: a diluted league. 8 teams finished under 30 wins this year. We could contract Orlando, Sacramento (sorry, hometowners), Charlotte, and Toronto and it still probably wouldn't be enough to make the league as competitive as MLB or the NFL. despite playing in a diluted league, with the best player in the universe in his prime, in a conference where the 8th seed was 6 games below .500, and boasting a 27 game winning streak, Miami missed it by 6 games. Diluted league or not 72 wins plus  the fact they were defending their 5th title in 7 years is very impressive.  This Miami team with its collective lack of focus couldn't hold a candle to what these past their prime Bulls did in 1996.


3. '87 Lakers. 65-17, 37-4 at home, +9.3 regular season, 15-3 playoffs, +11.4 playoffs.

This team had Magic, Kareem, and James Worthy, three of the best Lakers ever, which is saying a lot considering they also have had Kobe,Shaq, Elgin, and The Logo. I think the important fact dropped by Simmons from this team is this: They mastered the art of juggling transition and half-court offense..." That's something Miami wishes they could say.  They got better this year in the half court with their expanding roster of 3 point shooters, but when they play anybody good their half-court offense is mediocre at best. It's been that way since the beginning in 2011. Compare versus the Spurs and Pacers who thrive in half-court offense. Sure transition comes easy against bad teams, but against good careful teams, transition is harder to come by making set offenses and traditional basketball more important. Miami just doesn't have it. Also something interesting you see from these previous three teams: 15-3 playoffs.  Miami will never do something like that. Either a lack of focus or lack of talent causes them to struggle. I think its a little of both, but it has to be an indictment that when things get tough come playoff time they go into a shell. They are good enough to win because they have the best player in the world on the floor, but as a team they just aren't as dominant in the playoffs because their overall talent level doesn't compare to these deeper and more legendary teams.


4. '89 Pistons. 63-19, 37-4 at home. +5.8 scoring difference regular season, 15-2 playoffs, +9.5 scoring difference playoffs.

This was the break through team for Isiah and a very deep team with Dumars, Rodman, Laimbeer, and Vinnie Johnson.  This was actually one of the first basketball teams I remember because they lost the '88 Finals to the Lakers in 7 the year the Mavericks took that same Lakers team to 7 in the Western Conference Finals, which was also my first live basketball experience. Again another versatile transition/half-court offense team with one of the hardest-nosed defenses in league history. You just wanted to shank Laimbeer every time you looked at him. You know how LeBron gets frustrated by physical play? He wouldn't have survived a series against the Bad Boy Pistons. Neither would Wade. They claim exhaustion in Game 1 of the NBA Finals this year? By Game 4 of any series with this Pistons team they'd cry Uncle. Moving on.


5. '01 Lakers. 56-26, +3.4 scoring difference regular season, 15-1 playoffs, +12.8 scoring difference playoffs, only loss in OT in NBA Finals, Game 1

This really could have been higher on this list if they didn't go through the motions in the regular season. But when the chips were down in the playoffs, holy shit this team was unstoppable. You've never seen an inside out combo like 2001 Kobe and Shaq. Some fun combined playoff stats when they actually brought it:

59.8 PPG, 22.7 RPG, 9.3 APG. That's damn near a 30-11-5 player. Twice. Good God. If they weren't at each other's throats and Kobe wasn't a little shithead back then a in his prime Shaq and in his prime Kobe could have dominated for YEARS. We wouldn't even be talking about a Spurs semi-dynasty with them going for their 5th title in 14 years. We'd be talking about how Kobe has 8 rings. Woulda coulda shoulda. But if you think this Heat team was doing anything to stop Shaq, you're full of it.



6. '97 Bulls. 69-13. 39-2 at home, +10.8 scoring difference regular season, 15-4 playoffs, +5.5 playoffs.

I'm going to spend very little time here. Basically Jordan and Pippen were a year older from that '96 team. They still won the 3rd most games ever in the regular season and they added a still good Rodman to a bunch of quality role players. Jordan has the killer instinct alone that the entire Heat team lacks. Even at 34 I'd take him over 28 year old LeBron James to lead my team to a title.

I'm going to skip past 7-9. It's the '71 Bucks, '83 76ers, and '72 Lakers. Just a very very different era and one I know far less about. I will say it involved an in prime Kareem, a better than Dwyane Wade Oscar Robertson, Moses Malone, Doctor J, The Logo, Wilt Chamberlain, and Gail Goodrich. All incredible players and that '72 Lakers team did win 33 in a row. I'm not ready to put this Heat team there.


10. '91 Bulls. 61-21, 35-6, +9.0 regular season, 15-2 playoffs, +11.7 playoffs, best Fg% and 2nd FG% defense in the playoffs.

Michael's breakthrough year. Swept the back to back champs and killed the Bad Boy Pistons, beat the Showtime Lakers in 5 in the NBA Finals and ended that story too. Only losses were Game 1 of the NBA Finals and Game 3 against Sir Charles and the Sixers. Otherwise we had the arrival of Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen and Phil Jackson. This was a huge turning point in NBA history. We would watch the greatest 8 year stretch of any team since the Celtics of the 60s. I'm not convinced Miami would beat this team.

Something else you notice looking through that list: only the '96 Bulls saw their scoring difference drop in the playoffs and it was still double digits. The Heat's +7 differential is quality but you just do not see them turn it on in the playoffs the way these great teams did. Even if the Heat win the next two games, I just struggle a way to put this team in the Top 10 Hall of Fame. The streak was great and certainly will be remembered throughout history, but the legendary status of this team was lost in these last two playoff series and in the collective nonchalant way this team conducts itself. I would likely take all 10 of those teams above this particular Heat team.

This isn't to say this was not a great season and a very good team.  Because they are. Anytime they are counted out, or the vultures are circling they come alive. Just as they did tonight.  They show the heart of a champion, but so have so many other teams in the NBA. It's not enough to show the heart of a champion to be considered among the all-time greats, but you have to rip out the heart of your opponent too. Miami just doesn't have that killer instinct in them. It's beyond them.  They have to play bad to self-motivate to play well.  Greatest teams of all time don't do that.

Part 2 with a way too early look at LeBron's legacy coming soon!




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