Friday, November 30, 2012

Gator Grumblings and Supercontest Week 13

Some of us are way too invested in sports. I make my living as a lawyer while daydreaming I could actually find a way to turn my vast sports knowledge and above average (admit it, it's true I'm fairly accurate compared to guys who get paid to do this) analyses into a career that would actually give me joy. I love sports. I love sports the way MTV junkies love The Real World or Jersey Shore. I simply can not get enough. I love playing them, in my life so far I have competitively played in some kind of organized league or tournament or competition in the following sports with varying levels of success: baseball, old man softball, tackle football, flag football, cross-country/distance running, track and field, basketball, soccer, racquetball, and darts. Yeah I added that last one as a joke, but whatever it's on ESPN2 at 2am sometimes and I have actually played in numerous leagues and would likely crush you at that "sport". I also golf, but haven't played in a tournament...yet. I love the competition. I love watching professionals and semi-pros (read: college athletes) do it better than I can. I love debating with anyone that can stand to listen to me for 5 minutes. I love playing fantasy sports.

Cue Nancy Kerrigan: Whhhhhhhyyyyyyyy??????


But over the last few years as I approached and turned 30 I felt like I had been less emotional about my sports and the teams I cheered for. I suffered one of the all time gut punches as a fan in the 2011 World Series. I mean we are talking on level with the Buckner series in 1986. You are never one strike away from winning the World Series twice in separate innings and lose. After that game I was fairly despondent but still optimistic with Game 7 to follow. Even after losing Game 7, I only needed about an hour or so of alone time to come to grips with what i just experienced over the last two days. Put this in stark contrast to when I was 12 and Cowboys lost the NFC Championship game to the hated 49ers. I was so angry and crying on my way home while riding my bike I didn't notice some gravel and crashed my bike. I have the scar on my wrist from that day still. I didn't think at this point I could feel the same way, but after Notre Dame's win on Saturday night at USC and realization that Notre Dame was going to be the #1 team in the country heading into the bowl season I was about as fired up about sports as I have been in forever.

Despite winning the previous two Super Bowls, this game hurt as bad as any I had experienced in my short fandom.


A lot of this stems from the fact that the Gators were going to backdoor their way into the National Championship game with a loss from Notre Dame at USC. And yes, I am in full agreement that this portion of my angst should be a non-factor, since if Florida decided to actually play their normal game against Georgia instead of turning the ball over 6 times and still only losing by 8, we wouldn't have been in that situation on Saturday night needing a mediocre USC team to win. I understand that, and really I'm not THAT mad the Gators aren't playing in the national championship game. They should have beat Georgia and I honestly think they would have beat Alabama this weekend. The blueprint was out on them and two teams that Florida beat this year (A&M and LSU) either beat Bama or gave away a victory by playing 15 yards off the ball against a QB that can only throw accurately on short routes, notwithstanding wide open receivers against a shitty Auburn secondary. But that's simply an alternate reality. What I am mad about is actual reality.

I guess it's alright if YOU think you're #1, Manti. But no one else. 


Notre Dame #1. What a disgusting proposition. It's amazing that a system that requires human input has Notre Dame as a unanimous #1. There is something severely robotic and fraudulent about the polling. 12-0 equals #1. No questions asked. No observations considered, no data inspected. If you are 12-0 and no one else is you must be the best team in the country. This is the biggest crock of shit I have ever seen. There is no rule that states you must vote the only 12-0 team #1. Isn't the purpose of this poll to actually vote for who you think the best team in the country is? But there it sits. All 60 voters of the AP Top 25 poll have Notre Dame number 1. At least 3 people in the Coaches poll have some idea of what they are doing splitting their votes between Georgia and Alabama.

You know what's so stupid about the AP poll? A majority of these same voters (who are writers and broadcasters) will assuredly pick the SEC champ to beat Notre Dame in the title game. How can you not? The SEC has never lost to anyone outside the SEC in the BCS title game (8-1 all time, with the 1 loss being LSU to Alabama last year) If that's the case why is Notre Dame #1? The stupid 12-0 next their name? It's unreal. This is how I feel about it right now: CRAZY PILLS

Why can't these voters use the things in front of them? Notre Dame has two wins all year that could be considered "impressive". A controversial win against Stanford @ home in overtime where Stanford was denied the tying touchdown, and the real feather in the cap: @ Norman against Oklahoma. But let's face it, even mediocre teams can show up with impressive wins every season: Baylor against K State, NC State @ Florida State, Washington against Stanford, etc.. What is more telling about Notre Dame's season are the unimpressive wins: by 3 @ home to BYU, by 3 @ home to Purdue, 3OT @ home to Pitt, in game that Pitt completely gave away in OT, 21-6 against a 2-10 Boston College team. They could only beat a USC team with a redshirt QB making his first state and possessing one of the worst defenses in the Pac-12 by 9. Oregon and UCLA beat them by more and USC lost to an unheralded Arizona team. This is not the resume of the #1 team in the country. If this was college basketball their RPI would be like 18. What about Notre Dame this year leads anyone to believe that are the best? All it is is a robotic response to a win-loss record.

If you put this question to the 60 AP voters: Who would win at the Orange Bowl this year, Notre Dame or _____? I'm positive the majority would come out in favor of the following fill-ins for that blank: Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Oregon, LSU, Kansas State, Texas A&M, maybe Stanford and maybe South Carolina. I think you could draw the line at Nebraska and Oklahoma and the ACC rivals Florida State and Clemson. I would be fine putting Notre Dame somewhere in the 8-14 range. Yet despite this all 60 voted Notre Dame as the #1 team in the country.

What could have been...


A valid argument could be made for Florida to be the #1 team. They went 11-1, their only loss a completely out of character 6 turnover game that they still were in until the end. They beat 4 of the top 13 teams in the country, lost to the #3 team, and beat two teams that took it to the #2 team. No one has an onfield resume even close to that. They punctuated it by crushing the #10 team in the country on the road. You know what, they have an even better resume than Alabama  (loss to #3 neutral field v. loss to #9 @ home), but for some reason Alabama is #2 because the media jocks Nick Saban. Whatever.

The worst thing is that the currently devised playoff doesn't cure this problem. I don't think Notre Dame is one of the best 4 teams in the country but they would have gotten in. Nothing but intellectually honest voters will cure this problem. Not voters that will vote one team #1 because of their record without looking at the onfield performance but then pick against them in the national title game. Hypocrites.

And this is why I have this blog, for when I really feel passionate about something in sports. Sure making supercontest picks every week is fun, but these emotions are what really drive me as a sports fan, even negative ones that I still can't shake several days later. Nothing would satisfy me more than the SEC champ absolutely waxing the floor with Notre Dame.  Guess I'll have to wait about 40 days for that to happen. On to the picks!

Week 12 Recap

Bills @ Colts (-3)

This one was close and yet never really in doubt the whole way. For once I nailed the Chuck Pagano karma train. I do feel a little sleazy basing spread picks on the presence of a man fighting leukemia, but the Colts show up every time something Chuckstrong related happens. This week? Two cheerleaders shaving their heads on the sidelines during the game in solidarity with Chuck. Buffalo didn't stand a chance after that. Also Indy is AFC Seattle, good at home bad on the road. 

Packers (+3) @ Giants

Hahaha. Stupid Giants. I totally forgot that the "nobody believes in us" card was legitimate again for this team. They absolutely dominated this game after a lot pundits really felt Green Bay had made itself the team to beat again. I should have seen this coming, shame on me. At least it's the only blemish on this week's card. 

Seahawks @ Dolphins (+3)

Seattle just looked really flat this game. I love the fact that NO ONE was taking Miami in this game. I think you could get -3 at +105. That's about as good of odds as you can get on a spread before the line moves. Like my Giants pick and their nobody believes in us crap, betting America failed to take into account actual betting rules that apply to the Seahawks: West coast travelling to East Coast for morning game AND Seattle sucks on the road.  I feel good about this one. 

Ravens (-1) @ Chargers

I haven't said this out loud to anyone but I don't think Ray Rice actually got there on 4th and 29. But who cares? This result was simply not surprising for the Chargers.  In control the entire first half they get shut out in the second half by a team not entirely motivated to win. And then the 4th and 29. See ya Norv! If he survives this season I don't know whether to call him Michael Myers from Halloween or Zombie Norv. There is no way he sticks around after last week. 

Falcons (-1) @ Buccaneers

Everything in life must have a balance. I can't get a miracle Packers cover last week and expect the exact same cover the following week with the Falcons. Matt Bryant had a shot at the end of the game to make this a 4 point win, instead he missed, giving me my first push of the season. C'est la vie. 

Before I start this week's picks I just want to post a link to a new blog started as a collaboration between myself and a my friend Teach. You can see it over here at Straight Pickin' Ya. Pretty neat little spread pick 'em blog. Teach will be selecting 3 games each week in NBA, NCAA Basketball, and NCAA Football as well as my 5 game Supercontest slate and we will each give our takes and picks on the season. Check it out!

Week 13 Picks

(Ed. Note: This is the first week I've had a full slate to pick from, minus the Thursday game, and it was one of the hardest weeks to make picks. I'm bracing for my first 0-5.)

Bengals (-1.5) @ Chargers

I feel like Bill Murray from Groundhog day. I keep waking up to the same spread scenarios. The Bengals are in a big push for the playoffs and are playing some of their best football recently against the Giants and cellar dwelling Chiefs and Raiders.  The Chargers aren't much better than either of their AFC West counterparts. So why is this spread 1.5? Are we going to expect the same no show from another AFC North oppinent? Did the Chargers fix their myriad offensive issues? Did Norv learn how to coach? The answer to all of those is NO.

Buccaneers (+7) @ Broncos

This may be an unpopular pick since it does send Tampa on the road in an unfriendly atmosphere against a red-hot Broncos team, but the Bucs haven't lost a game by more than 7 all year and they have more than enough offense to keep up with Denver. I'm not saying Denver isn't for real, I think they have a good shot to make a deep playoff run but their recent 6 game winning includes San Diego x2, Carolina, Kansas City, and an actual fraudulent team in New Orleans. I just think 7 might be too high here. Also it's nice to be betting with my sweethearts again.

Browns (Pk) @ Raiders

Sexy, sexy matchup. Thank god for the Redzone channel or i'd be force to watch this snoozefest. Yeah, this is also how bad the card is this week that this is my #3 game. Simply put the Browns are playing better than the Raiders. Nothing more to really evaluate. Now where is the Chiefs game so I can pick against all 4 AFC West teams?

Jaguars (+6) @ Bills

Yeah this one actually does have some more appeal, both teams have fairly potent offenses with defenses that leave something to be desired. Since Henne has stepped in Jacksonville has looked like a passing juggernaut. Who would've thought that Blaine Gabbert wasn't the answer in Jacksonville? I fully expect Tannehill to be a victim of these similar circumstances next year. What a waste of a first round pick. As for this game, the old mantra don't guive more than 3 with mediocre teams applies here. Could Buffalo win by 7? Sure. But more likely they lose or win by 4 or less.

Cardinals @ Jets (-4.5)

Yuck. This game is horrible and that spread is horrible. But Whisenhunt is trying to get himself fired by sticking with Ryan Lindley over Skelton. Kolb may return, but there hasn't been any positive news on that front this week. The Jets like to do the Jekyll and Hyde routine, look terrible one week then beat a team good the next week. This is a perfect scenario for that to happen, I just wish I didn't have to give 4.5.

Bonus

49ers @ Rams (+7)

Back to back road games for the 49ers and of course we all remember how fired up the Rams were for this game last time they met. The 49ers also needed some help from a couple of interception returns to put away the Saints. I don't like Amendola in a walking boot, but I also just don't like giving 7 with the 49ers. Kinda odd having a bonus in a week where I hate the card, but I haven't had a bonus in a couple of weeks.

Last week: 3-1-1, Season: 31-23-1 (34-27-1 with bonus)

Good luck everyone!

1 comment:

  1. Good Stuff!! I think for me, as I am getting older, I'm getting more emotionally invested in my teams. I'm still riding high from the World Series.

    And I'm with you on the watching and playing sports. Nicole and I just got into an argument the other night about how much sports and sports programming I'm watching (every night) and how it's clogging up our DVR. Trying my best to dumb it down a little and enrich my life with other forms of entertainment, but sports always seems to dominate and as in the GodFather, "they pull me back in!!"

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