But every now and then tendencies we saw in the regular season creep back up in a playoff series. For the Tigers it was their defense and hitting and completely unreliable bullpen that did them in. The Tigers only won 88 games for a reason and we forget that because they took out the hottest AL team in the first round and then swept the Yankees. But in the World Series the Tigers of the regular season emerged. If that team emerged at any stage of the playoffs they would have been soundly beaten. And they were.
The second reason we shouldn't be shocked is that long layoff. It just never helps anybody, ever. And there simply nothing you can do about it. In the playoffs you are penalized for doing your job right. There are more instances of this than I can count. This is why you see rust in basketball, hockey, and baseball playoffs and to a small degree football playoffs. Even in my old man softball league it happens and the playoff games are the same day. In our league the #1 and #4 seed play at 630, the #2 and #3 at 730 and then the winners at 830 for the title. This design is allow the #1 seed to "rest" after likely winning its game. The problem is its old man softball. If you need to rest after a 55 minute game in which you sit on the bench for half of it you have some issues. Instead that #1 seed gets knocked out of its rhythm and starts slow in that championship game while the #2 or #3 seed just keeps on playing without missing a beat. This isnt scientific but I am confident saying or team has had a better record in the playoffs as a #2 than as a #1. Every time we are a #1 (which we are this season, god help us) we start that 830 game super slow and end up playing catch up with too little too late.
This is what happened to Detroit. They had a whole cycle of a rotation of days off meaning these pitchers were pitching on too much rest and the bats had lost all sense of timing. Verlander was on 8 days rest, Scherzer on 10, etc...Go back to 2010 when the Giants beat what seemed to be an unstoppable ace in Game 1 against the Rangers. Cliff Lee that day was pitching on 9 days rest. It's such a psychological advantage for a team to win that game and it showed. on regular rest Verlander would probably sport a sub 2.00 era against this particular Giants team if they played 10 times. They took to Verlander and never looked back. It was the same blueprint in 2010. This World Series is just not as much of a shock as people may have thought. That said though, the Giants showed up and for that they are champs. Hold on to this moments you butthole bandwagon San Franciscans, you never know when your team will suck for 17 years following a cluster of championships and you forget what it's like.
In the NFL we are nearing coaching armageddon. I never understood why teams arent more liberal with the trigger finger on firing coaches. By Week 9 or 10 you know what you have. There is a proven track record of poor teams picking up their play with a change in scenery under the headset and it allows you to vet your candidates early and allow you to be better prepared to make that coaching decision immediately to give you the most possible transition time. But for some reason bad teams hang onto coaches for the whole season deciding its better to pay for the bad coaching than to pay the coach to simply leave. If I was a GM these are the coaches I'd fire immediately:
(Ed. Note: I found appropriate memes for every head coach except Crennel. I just couldn't find a good one. He's so bad people can't even make fun of him. Get lost Crennel.)
Romeo Crennel - I'm sorry when you've played 8 games and have never lead in regulation you can't possibly keep your job. Kansas City isn't the least talented team in the league but they play like it. Keeping him around is only hurting your franchise. There is a Save Our Chiefs twitter account that is now up to 120,000 followers. No other team, not even the Browns or the Bills feel this much despair about their franchise. Every week this goes on where the Chiefs never lead (and there is a high probability of continuing this week on the road in Pittsburgh) it makes it that much harder to bring those fans back. If I was this bad at my job I wouldn't have seen Week 3. Inexcusable. You are 1-7. You have zero hope to make the playoffs. Make the change and at least bring back some goodwill for your fans. This is borderline criminal what the front office is doing to them.
Andy Reid - This has gone on long enough. The team has quit on him and unlike the Chiefs, the Eagles could use the bounceback a new interim coach usually brings. The NFC East is still very much winnable for all but the Redskins but the Eagles can't do it with Reid and that's because he refuses to play a quarterback that would understand he has to release the ball NOW and that diving head first only leads to fumbles. Besides Reid's never won anything and is a constant running joke about how to properly mismanage crunch time. The Eagles would have multiple titles within the last decade with someone more competent running that team.
Jason Garrett - I'm doubling down here in the NFC East because the Cowboys are in an even more favorable position than the Eagles to still make playoff noise. No I'm not being a homer, check the schedule. The Cowboys had the toughest schedule in the first half and now they play 7 games against sub .500 teams. They could easily finish 10-6....if they had a head coach that knew what the fuck he was doing. Nothing has changed from Phillips to Garrett. NOTHING. The Cowboys still bog down in the red zone. The Cowboys can't convert crucial third downs. The Cowboys make ridiculous mental errors at the worst times. Yellow flags litter the field. All of this is coaching related. The Cowboys have a very legitimate path to a 7-1 second half and a 10-6 finish. But they won't. They will lose at least 2 games they shouldn't (just like they've lost 3 in recent weeks they shouldn't) finish 8-8 again and we do this merry go round again. Spare me. Please.
Pat Shurmur - He's awful. The Browns have talent but little in the way of coaching. As Simmons noted on Monday they were conservative in one situation while aggressive in another, with neither occurring at the appropriate times. Weeden is 29. You have a 5 year window with him and he could be legit, but he needs someone to put him in a position to win. You have a dominant left tackle, the best pair of corners in the league, an all-pro linebacker, and an electric running back. This team should be 3-5 or 4-4. Shurmur obviously isn't the best you could do.
Zombie Norv Turner - The guy has already blown a game to an interim interim head coach and gave his team no chance to win against the Broncos despite a 20+ point advantage. He lost to the aformentioned Browns when he only gave up 7 points. While some point the finger at Rivers, I point it squarely at zombie Turner. He's been dead long ago. He simply can't keep his team in position to win. The Chargers never lose those total head scratchers like the Cowboys do because Norv takes them out of it in the 3rd quarter. Norv is about 2.5 years overdue to be buried. Let's do the humane thing and stick a screwdriver in his brain.
These are easily the 5 worst head coaches in football. No reason not to dump them now. On to the picks!
Week 9 Recap
Bears (-3.5) @ Titans
Nope I wasn't missing anything here. The Bears have put up a couple of slow rollers the last couple weeks with Detroit and Carolina but this Bears team is good and has a historically good scoring defense. Teams should be afraid to put the ball up in the air against these guys because it's likely coming back the other way at least once a game.
Nope I wasn't missing anything here. The Bears have put up a couple of slow rollers the last couple weeks with Detroit and Carolina but this Bears team is good and has a historically good scoring defense. Teams should be afraid to put the ball up in the air against these guys because it's likely coming back the other way at least once a game.
Dolphins (-2.5) @ Colts
The Dolphins just didn't have enough. They had a good shot at this spread until Luck was able to complete that heave into double coverage in the end zone. Luck likes playing at home and also Chuck Pagano gave an inspirational speech. This is the second time now I've bet against Chuck Pagano and lost. If he shows up on the sidelines at some point I'm dumping my kid's college fund into the Colts.
Panthers @ Redskins (-3)
Double no-show. Now the Redskins are in "evaluation" mode. Too bad for Skins fans they had so many crucial injuries this season because this NFC East is still very winnable right now. This game was never close and now we have to watch out for too much RG3 hyperbole throwing lines. Losing at home handily to the Panthers does nothing for my confidence.
Buccaneers (+1.5) @ Raiders
Two words: Muscle Hamster. Two more words: Raiders suck.
Ravens (-3.5) @ Browns
Oi, I probably should not have won this one. The Ravens are a dangerous bet now. They are just missing a little too much talent from their opening day roster and unlike Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco simply hasn't made the leap. Here is what Flacco is: a mediocre quarterback playing with awesome talent around him. The fact Flacco has a better playoff record than Matt Ryan has little to do with the respective qualities of the QBs and more to do with the fact Flacco has my favorite running back in the game, a great defense, and a coach that knows what he is doing. The Browns are probably still sneaky good underdog value.
Week 10 picks
Chargers @ Buccaneers (-3)
My Bucs pick for the playoffs is back alive! This team's offense has been loaded the last few weeks. Freeman is slinging touchdowns, Muscle Hamster is looking like some wicked Emmitt Smith/Ray Rice hybrid, and slow-ass Vincent Jackson seems uncoverable. Sure their defense hasn't been good and they traded Aqib Talib and they lost a second All-Pro guard for the season but there is a lot to like about the Bucs. There is almost nothing to like about the Chargers. They actually needed a second half to put away the god awful Chiefs. They are a west coast team playing an early east coast game. And I just bad mouthed Norv Turner. Walk the Pewter Plank, San Diego.
Lions @ Vikings (+2.5)
Christian Ponder didn't all of the sudden become bad. They've had a tough stretch and I'm simply not buying any Lions stock. Especially when it involves going on the road in a division game. I know Harvin is almost assuredly out but Adrian Peterson has been lights out and Ponder can get back on the saddle against a below average Lions team. Give me my home dog here.
Falcons (-2.5) @ Saints
No the Saints aren't the same Saints. They've beaten San Diego, Tampa (in a weird game), and Philadelphia. It's not exactly a murderers row and Tampa eviscerated their defense. The Falcons are due to lose, but you right them until they do. Their offense will have no problem out pacing the Saints. Due to the Saints recent resurgence against mediocre or bad teams the betting public would be all over this. Nothing has changed the last few weeks. If this spread was done in Week 7 instead of Week 10 it would've been Falcons -4 at least.
Giants (-4) @ Bengals
The Bengals just aren't any good. They've lost four in a row, 3 of them at home, by an average of 7.25 points per game to the Dolphins, Browns, Steelers, and Broncos. The Giants are every bit as good as any of those teams. The Giants have been a little sluggish, but that's expected of this team. The Giants aren't a 13-3 regular season team. They need motivation every week. Running off wins for them leads to bad performances like they've had the past couple of weeks (barely beating Dallas despite 6 turnovers and losing a very winnable game against Pittsburgh). People are talking about how poor Eli is playing and now the Giants are getting less respect this week than normal. The Giants love the road and the relish in media talk about how they aren't one of the top 5 teams in the NFL. Giants win this one by a TD easy.
Chiefs @ Steelers (-12.5)
I can't help myself. Matt Cassel, on the road, under the lights on Monday night? The O/U on Cassel turnovers is probably 3.5 and the over is playing at -120. 12.5 is a lot of points and usually not a spread I go for, but no one anywhere would be comfortable taking the Chiefs +12.5 here. Even a 75% performance by Big Ben and the Steelers defense should lead to a two touchdown win. Hopefully for Chiefs fans this is the game that does in Crennel.
Bonus
Cowboys (-1.5) @ Eagles
The Cowboys gut punch you and break your heart but don't lack in talent. The Eagles are actually starting to lack talent, especially on the offensive line. No starting tackles or starting center. I mean even if the Eagles did want to do some things on offense that line can't help them. Scoring only 13 against the Saints is terrible. The Cowboys will be in the backfield all night and despite the fact Dallas will settle for at least 2 field goals where they should have had 2 touchdowns, they will win this game by more than a point.
Last week: 3-2, Season: 23-17 (25-21 with bonus)
"Well I promised something on the Giants." Looks like you mostly just talked about the Tigers and your softball league. Oh right, except at the end: "That said though, the Giants showed up and for that they are champs." Excellent analysis, very incisive.
ReplyDeleteI dont know what else to say that just seemed to be how the Giants became champs, by showing up. The ball bounced their way more times than I can count both on and off the field. The didn't have to face one of the 3 best pitchers in the NL in the NLDS for two games, the Cardinals alternated between missing their two best bats in key games in the series, Marco Scutaro averages something like two hits a game in the NLCS. This is a guy who was a career .276 hitter, a 36 year old 2nd basebman that went 3 for 20 in the NLDS. All of the sudden he's Derek Jeter? What about Hunter Pence's most ridiculous double of all time in game 7 of the NLCS off the broken bat. When other team's flares and weakly hit popups went foul, the Giants' found fair ground for key hits and runs. In the World Series we saw bunts that should have gone foul stay fair for the Giants, balls bouncing crazy off the bag to spark rallies, a run saving tag by inches, Barry freaking Zito shedding 6 years of shitty play by pitching shutout innings in the World Series. I refuse to believe that the Giants were the best team in the majors. They certainly werent in the regular season and fortune just seemed to smile on them. If you run back this postseason format 100 times where Cueto doesn't get hurt in the first inning of Game 1 of the NLDS or Holliday or Beltran play the whole series, or Scutaro doesnt hit .500 in a 7 game series the Giants make the world series probably 5 out of those 100 times. Most times they never get out of the first round. So yeah they showed up and the ball bounced their way. Thats the best I can say for them.
ReplyDelete