What usually fuels the fun is the pure speculation attached to the wheelings and dealings and the excitement or the lament that your team is or is not involved on a particular free agent or working a blockbuster deal. While in recent years these meetings are usually dominated by the teams flush with cash (read: Yankees) every team gets involved in the rumors one way or another and a lot teams sign at least one sort of notable free agent. For instance this year the Royals, a team usually not wheeling and dealing unless its a proven MLB talent for some more prospects, has actually been at the forefront of a number of rumored deals and pursuits of free agents, even the top pitching prize Zack Greinke. Or a team like Cleveland that has sign a free agent, has been rumored to be a linchpin for some blockbuster deal involving Justin Upton to the Rangers.
Usually most big name free agents sign around this time, with a few exceptions like Prince Fielder last year. But Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson, arguably the top free agent prizes in their respective positions signed with the Angels on the same day leading to all sorts of "Who can beat the Angels now?" headlines for months. In 2010 it was the Red Sox swinging a deal for Adrian Gonzalez and then splurging on Carl Crawfor. The Hot Stove season is awesome. It allows for renewing of hope and some actual off the field excitement as there is usually a frenetic pace to free agent signings and trades. Remember the excitement that we had in free agency prior to last NFL season once the lockout was lifted? That's usually the winter meetings. But baseball has it every year.
Well this year has been terrible. Probably the worst winter meetings for player movement in recent memory. We had all the usual speculation and even a burgeoning head to head race between Texas and the Dodgers for Greinke, but then nothing happened. Hamilton is still a free agent. Greinke is still a free agent. Justin Upton is still a Diamondback. The Royals haven't traded their best prospect Wil Myers yet. The best we've had is BJ Upton going to Atlanta (a great signing) and Dan Haren going to Washington (whatever). It has been disappointing to say the least. But Jayson Stark over at espn.com wrote a interesting piece on the meetings yesterday and basically stated the Rangers have corked the flow.
The Rangers are frontrunners for Hamilton, Greinke, AND a trade for Justin Upton, although its clear they wont get all 3. But one piece has close for the others to fall into place and it's not happening. And those pieces have to fall for the market to set for other free agents and other teams move to address their needs elsewhere. While the slow pace has been disappointing, I'm stoked the Rangers are taking the lead here. Texas has been relevant for exactly 3 years of the last 10 and 6 years in its entire existence. They've made two huge splashes in the offseason prior to this run: Alex Rodriguez for 252 million and Chan Ho Park for 65 million dollars. Neither of those worked out well. Well this year we are the alpha dog. Players wait for us. Teams wait for us. I love that status. We aren't the new Yankees of the winter meetings where we come in a blow out the market by throwing unreasonable offers at players, we are a new breed of offseason dominator where we control the flow UNTIL we get what we ultimately want. While it may temper the excitement, it's great for Texas Rangers baseball. Jon Daniels our GM continues to impress and I hope he remains GM for a long time.
One NFL note before we get to last week's recap and this week's games. I've been fairly harsh on Romeo Crennel and usually a fan writes about sports to commend and/or criticize. But, we ignore the basic humanity of the players, coaches, and executives and basically write about these people as if they are legendary heroes or unrepentant criminals. I sincerely felt bad for Romeo Crennel the human being last Saturday. To watch one of your players who you've invested time and energy to help make successful kill themselves has to be one of the most mentally painful experiences in life. Romeo handled the situation with class and then went out on Sunday, the very next day, and probably coached the game of his life. The sheer level of aggressiveness struck me that Crennel wanted this game more than any other he has coached. Sure, Carolina isn't a tough matchup, but on the field Kansas City has rivaled Oakland and Arizona as clearly the worst teams in the league. Crennel went out there and coached his team to a victory. That's the highest praise you can make for any coach and I commend you Crennel. That was a great performance. There is often opportunity in tragedy and maybe something clicked in Crennel's head, because he was great last week. Good luck the rest of the season Kansas City, you didn't deserve to have this tragedy thrown on your doorstep.
Week 13 Recap
Bengals (-1.5) @ Chargers
I will say this, I am writing this without having looked at the lines, but if San Diego is only a 1.5 pt underdog to the Steelers I'm going to bankrupt Vegas. It's as if Vegas and the betting public feel like it's 2006 and LaDainian Tomlinson is setting NFL records for these Chargers. These are not the same Chargers we knew in the 00's. They are seriously devoid of talent in several areas and are simply not good. They should easily be lumped into the category of teams just above the terrible 3: Arizona, Oakland, and Kansas City. I'd love to see the Eagles and Chargers play. It would be a game of who can piss away the game last.
Buccaneers (+7) @ Broncos
1 point. Ridiculous. That bad defense caught up to them in the 3rd quarter and they just couldn't recover after a great first half or finish the cover after a great 4th quarter. I still believe in my Bucs and I think this line would've been covered on most occasions.
Browns (Pk) @ Raiders
Love it. The AFC West is clearly the worst division in football this year. You can't have the 2nd or 3rd best team in the conference and then the two clearly worst and a third that may be almost as bad. Cleveland is game folks. Be cautious with how you bet in games involving them.
Jaguars (+6) @ Bills
Whoops. I don't really know what to say except shame on me for betting on Jacksonville.
Cardinals @ Jets (-4.5)
You know what? Fuck you, Mark Sanchez. Seriously. Your ball control acumen is making Rex Grossman look like Tom Brady. Butt fumbles, horrrrrrible passes that are intercepted, 97 yards passing in 3 quarters, what the hell are you doing back there? No NFL QB should EVER be benched in favor of Greg McElroy. Greg McElroy was drafted to be a 3rd string QB. He came from a smart coaching system and his job is to wear a headset and look at a clipboard and act like a coach. His job is not to actually play football. Yet you got benched in favor of him. Just do the league a favor and retire. At least be honest with the Jets and restructure your contract so you aren't stealing 8 million guaranteed dollars from them. I can not believe the Jets at home could not cover this spread against Ryan Lindley who is somehow even more inept. When a team has 137 total yards you should win by 20, not 1. So fucking ridiculous.
And no I'm not really mad at Shonn Greene for kneeling. That would've been a backdoor cover and Shonn Greene absolutely did the right thing. It's not his fault his quarterback is the worst in the league among those who have started every game.
Bonus
49ers @ Rams (+7)
Probably shouldn't have covered, although I still think it was right call. And to every 49er fan who blew up my facebook with "I want Alex Smith back" shut up. Kaepernick didn't call a play requiring him to pitch the ball 15 yards laterally while 10 yards from his own end zone (Harbaugh), didn't drop an easy touchdown that would have made the previous play moot anyway (Delanie Walker), didn't make an egregious late hit on a sliding Bradford at the end of regulation giving the Rams 15 yards that immensely helped get the Rams in position for a game typing field goal (Dashon Goldson), or miss a game winning field goal in overtime in a dome (David Akers).
You know what Kaepernick has done though: Bring the 49ers back from down double digits against the Rams in week 10, something Alex Smith couldn't do if he wished for it from a genie; destroyed the Bears defense in Chicago; beat the Saints handily in new Orleans without requiring 5 turnovers and despite the pitch fumble last week drove the 49ers down in two plays for a go ahead field goal making plays Alex Smith simply can't. So deal with the rookei starter bumps and take comfort in the fact that he makes your offense much more explosive, and teams like the Giants are now less comfortable playing you in the playoffs.
That being said Fisher sure seems to know how to get the Rams coached up for a game against the 49ers. Harbaugh/Fisher is shaping up to be a doosy of a coaching matchup.
Week 14 Picks
Ravens @ Redskins (-2.5)
I've been kind of waiting for a line like this for the Ravens for a little while. This team has pulled so many wins out of its ass that its record is simply immaterial to betting. Their offense is miserable and their defense is at least as bad or worse than the Redskins maligned defense. Losing to Charlie Batch is inexcusable. I don't care that it was a Pittsburgh/Baltimore game and that it will just always been close. If the Ravens were anything like their actual 9-3 records that game never would've been close and they certainly would not have lost it. Meanwhile RG3 is somehow riding a wave of more confidence than he was early in the season. He has eviscerated two division opponents in back to back weeks and has completely re-energized the Washington fan base. The rule is all things being equal the home team gives 3 points. The fact the Redskins give less shows Vegas thinks Baltimore is better. At this stage of the season, they aren't.
Texans (+3.5) @ Patriots
Sure this is a Monday night game in Foxborough, but I still can not fully trust the Pats. Maybe they withheld some game plan against Miami to use on Houston, but Houston has been so solid all season no would be the least bit surprised to see them win. This is the ultimate test for both teams heading into the playoffs and I think Houston actually wins this one. I'm happy I get 3.5 and you know theyll go in a bunch of 6 pt teaserss
Lions @ Packers (-7)
Yeah they played to a 1 pt victory a couple of weeks ago (technically 4 but that last Crosby field goal doesn't count), but there is something I've figured out a little bit about this season. When teams lose very winnable games the previous week, they often no show the next week. How do the Lions even bother to get up for this game after the ridiculous way they pissed away a home game to the Indianapolis Lucks. If Rodgers goes for less than 300 and 3tds Ill be disappointed. Plus its those horrible losses that coaching really stands out. Schwartz is not a good coach.
Falcons (-3.5) @ Panthers
See above about the Lions and apply it to the Panthers. Also apply the fact that Atlanta has had some extra rest, it's a short trip and the Panthers are done. Both Houston and Atlanta get very little credit for what they've done this year. It's not often an 11-1 team gives less than 4 against a 3-9 team. Yes there are obviously pitfalls with this game most notably that Atlanta may pull out just enough to win but Carolina seems to have lost all fight and it just doesn't strike me that Panthers players are too interested in saving Ron Rivera's job.
Chiefs (+6.5) @ Browns
Yep, part of this is a Romeo Crennel appreciation pick for the way he coached last week but it goes deeper than that. Kansas City has really been game these last couple of weeks combined with Cleveland simply underwhelming. I mean does anyone trust Cleveland to beat any NFL team by 7? One week they need 8 turnovers to win by 6 and the next week they slug it out to a 3 pt win with one of the worst defenses in the league. I know I said beware of the Browns in the recap, but that was meant to apply to them as dogs. I just can not take the Browns seriously in the role of touchdown favorites. Good luck Crennel.
Bonus
Jets @ Jaguars (+2.5)
This is the dumbest game in the world to bet on, so please don't. That being said I found it entirely too funny that there was a game that involved a team I have decided to check out on (Jax) and a team that will be lead AGAIN by Mark Sanchez. How can he have any confidence at this point? The Jags are hurting going down to some 4th string running back who is kind of a fullback and their best WR Cecil Shorts has been ruled out, but I don't care. The second Rex Ryan said gimme some more Sanchez, I had to pick against them in the bonus. What a terrible game, but may offer quite a bit of unintentional comedy. I really try to stay away from O/Us but its currently 38.5 for this game. It could be 28.5 and I'd probably still want the under. Awesome.
Good luck this week!
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