World Series is Back/Supercontest Week 8

(Ed. Note: I wrote this yesterday but didn’t post it until today. Of course I fail to acknowledge the fact that pitchers coming off of major layoffs like Verlander did last night really fucks with their performance. The Cliff Lee Game 1 2010 performance mentioned in Mr. Armchair’s blog linked below came on 9 days rest. There’s no way to really account for it, you don’t want to purposefully lose any playoff game but those long layoffs just never seem to benefit a team, especially when the other team has been playing several games during your layoff)

World Series starts tonight and it feels odd that I’m not bouncing off the walls right now like I have the last two years. There is nothing as a fan like watching your team play for championship. Sure as a fan you’ll sometimes be lucky enough to see some memorable individual accomplishments such as Wilt’s 100 or Kobe’s 81 (I think more impressive based on the era in which it happened), Nolan’s 7^th no-hitter, Nolan’s 5000^th strikeout, Cal’s last game in his ridiculous consecutive game streak, Adrian Peterson breaking the single game rushing record as a rookie (I was living in San Diego at the time, Chargers fans weren’t even mad, it was just an incredible performance), Flutie’s pass, The Band on the Field!, the Artest Melee (I’ll never forget where I was when I first saw it, it was almost like 9/11 in that respect). But these things pale in comparison to watching your team in a championship series or the BCS title game or the Super Bowl. The moment is bigger than all the players. This belongs to your team, a team you will root for long after these players are gone, this is real history. So congratulations to the fans of the Detroit Tigers, and a begrudging congratulations to the fans of the San Francisco Giants (even though your fans are mostly bandwagon assholes who don’t know shit about baseball) …enjoy the ride. Hopefully it’s a good one.

For me, it’s nearly impossible to pick this series. You could do a Dr. Jack Ramsey breakdown of the pitching, hitting, fielding, bullpens, baserunning, managers, homefield parks, etc…but it will get you no closer to predicting this series. On one side you have the American League team that probably faced the second toughest out in the A’s in the first round then annihilated a slumping bad Yankees team. The American League was clearly the best league this season with two 93 win teams that didn’t even make the playoffs, but then again, the AL was probably the best league the last two years and couldn’t get it done in the World Series.

For the Giants they have scraped by winning 6 elimination games combined in the last two series riding the bat of Marco Scutaro for crying out loud. The baseball postseason sure can give rise to some awkward stars (nobody ever, anywhere thought that Marco Scutaro would ever win a League Championship MVP award at any point in his life) with its high variance in 4-7 game series. This is also true for teams making it to the World Series. They aren’t always the best teams in their league (Sorry Giants fans you weren’t the best team in your league this year and you know it) but they definitely are one of the best and I’m hard pressed to find teams that don’t belong in the World Series when they make it there. The Cardinals may be an above average regular season team but when they get to the postseason they are just great. Despite barely getting in last year I thought they were a quite deserving team. The Giants are too. They have enough going for them to make this series a toss up.

For me (and this truly isn’t bias Giants fans) I have to pick the Tigers. Unlike the Cardinals, the Giants will not be facing a wilting pitching staff. Verlander is as strong as he has been all year and there is the possibility of facing his 3 times, but at least twice. Besides Verlander, Fister and Scherzer have been excellent in their starts and they’ll be facing Fister twice at least as well. In a series where the pitching edge has to go to the Tigers, the fact that they get 4 games against a NL roster makes them that much more dangerous. The Tigers aren’t hitting well that for sure, but they are getting timely hits just as the Giants are. If the scores get into the 5s and 6s I actually think the Giants have the edge, if it’s 3-1 Giants in the 8^th inning, the Giants have the edge. But I struggle to see too many instances where the Giants blwo it open in the early going as they did late in that series against the Cards. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers sweep or the Giants win in 7, but I just think when you have the best pitcher in the series and the best bat in the series its hard to pick against you. That being said the stink is on your Detroit. Make the AL proud. 

Of course if you want a Giants fan’s take check out Mr. Armchair’s Blog.

On to the Supercontest! I got back on the horse this week with a great weekend and even a Bears missed cover by a half point couldn’t ruin it despite them being the 3^rd team I needed to win a 3 team parlay, because I pussed out and hedged with the Lions guaranteeing me a positive outcome on Monday night. It was nice though I got the variance back my way. My picks have been mostly very solid, with the spreads being blown late rather than the teams just not showing up and this week I was the beneficiary of some nice late magic in a couple.

Before I recap I want to talk about these Thursday night games. They are complete bullshit from a gambling perspective. Actually they are complete bullshit from an integrity perspective as well. This season has totally been fucked by these games. Every week some team comes in hobbled. The beating these players go through requires a week of rest. How on earth are they supposed to recover when they are play 4 days later. The 49ers had to “rest” Frank Gore last week despite being their most effective weapon. In what universe is your best weapon rested in the 4^th quarter. I have a strong feeling this is going to happen this week to Adrian Peterson. While he had a good game he was put the test last week against Arizona’s physical defense. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a pass heavy game plan for Minnesota. My suggestion: no Thursday games without both teams being on bye the prior week. Not only would it make the game better but at least you wouldn’t be talking out your ass about player safety Mr. Goodell. Also, the world doesn’t want to see every team in primetime. The Bucs right now have no business being in primetime. You are making a billion dollars off this scheduling quirk, do it right.

Lets check the recap before this week’s picks.

WEEK 7 RECAP

Lions @ Bears (-6.5)

My one loss this week. It was disappointing seeing the Bears only put up 13 against the Lions, but it was clear Cutler wasn’t the same after getting destroyed by Suh. The fact the Lions only put up 7 was a given. The fact they covered on a touchdown with half a minute left is annoying. I think this game told us exactly what we already know. The Bears are good and the Lions offense is a mess. Curse you Stafford, you’ve fucked me twice in the last minute of games two weeks in a row.

Jaguars (+4.5) @ Raiders

This one should’ve been won more handily than it was, but when you have to play Chad Henne at QB you are in trouble. Prior to that though the Jaguars were laying the smackdown on the Raiders which was one of the more obvious calls this week. The Jags were on bye and the Raiders lost an enormous effort game against Atlanta the week before. The letdown was imminent.

Cowboys (-2.5) @ Panthers

Fortune smiles on me. The Cowboys looked like a lock to miss this spread until they kicked another field goal after the two minute because the Panthers suck. The fact Dallas was in this position is the first place shows me their offense is just not on the same page, their game against Baltimore obviously as fraudulent based on a terrible defense in Baltimore now. The Panthers though again fail to really put up points against a strong defense. Cam Newton is also overrated. He has 1 300 passing game in his last 18 games and his defense isn’t good enough to keep him in games. If you find the Panthers against an actual good offense, fire away.

Titans (+3.5) @ Bills

This looked like a lost bet too until Hasselbeck found Nate Washington in double coverage in the end zone on 4^th and a million. But for most of this game it was a solid call. Tennessee jumped out and was able to keep pace against the Bills terrible defense. This one definitely supported the take the points with two bad teams playing corollary.

Steelers (-2.5) @ Bengals

Easy call. The Steelers are the Bengals’ daddy. Despite the 7 point win, the Steelers by and large outplayed the Bengals, but were plagued by drops on offense. Gambling you are on notice. The Bengals office is just like the Lions’. The Steelers took away AJ Green and Cincy had problems moving the ball. If you find the Bengals against a good offense, fire away there as well.

WEEK 8 PICKS

(Ed. Note: Ride those road dogs! This wasn’t by design and I hate these stats usually since they just serve to take your eye off the ball but home favorites are some ridiculous number of games below .500 in covering)

Seahawks (+2) @ Lions

I just have no idea how the Lions are favored here. Short week after a brutally physical game against another very physical defense. All my previous concerns above. Seattle with 10 days between games and a secondary that is more than capable of handling Megatron and Titus Young. The Lions score maybe 14 again. Seattle and Beast Mode will perform much better than last week against SF. This is a bizarre spread that makes no sense to me.

Falcons (+2.5) @ Eagles

This is almost a fucking stupider spread. When the only reason the Eagles are favored here is because it’s an Andy Reid “after a bye” game that ignores all the other flaws of a team, you’re better off taking the points. Also, I wonder what the record is when Andy Reid comes off a bye facing a team that is also coming off a bye. I’m going to look that up right now…hold on a minute.  Haha amazing…the Eagles have only done this once under Andy Reid, in 2008 against…the Atlanta Falcons! They of course won because Andy Reid is perfect but these aren’t your 2008 Atlanta Falcons. I can tell you what the bye week adjustment was for Andy Reid: Fire your defensive coordinator and give the ball to Shady McCoy and bench Vick the second he fumbles. Whatever, the Eagles are a mess and the Falcons win close games, and there is no way the Eagles blow this one out. I’m feeling an Andy Reid loss here for the foirst time coming off a bye.

Redskins (+4.5) @ Steelers

This is not an ideal game, but you know what? Washington is better than Cincinnati and I can guarantee that had Madieu Williams actually performed his appropriate coverage the Redskins would be 3 pt dogs at most. I think you are getting a big free1.5 thanks to that one plan. The Steelers’ defense is not good and the Redskins offense is much more dynamic than Cincy’s. Plus RG3 just has magic, and I still believe the Steelers are no better than a 7-9 team. That means they find ways to lose these games.

Colts (+3.5) @ Titans

This is how quickly I abandon the Titans. I have no idea why the Titans are getting a .5 point edge beyond their homefield advantage, but they are. The Titans just can’t stop anyone, the Browns can. I see no reason why the Colts cant keep within a field goal pace of what Vegas feels is a sudden “juggernaut” in Tennessee.

Dolphins (+2) @ Jets

I like this game, but I don’t like the spread much. I would’ve thought maybe Vegas forgot about the Jets previous 5 weeks and just remembered last week where they almost beat a super overrated Patriots team. This game has all of the following corollaries: Team coming off a bye, team coming off an emotional loss, Mark Sanchez. How can I not take the points? Wish I was getting 3 though. Besides I’m still riding Miami as the sneaky good mediocre team in the AFC and this is games those teams win as underdogs. This time Miami can allow a random 2 pt conversion pass to a running back for a 3 pt win by Miami (stupid Rams).

Bonus

Patriots v Rams (+7) @ London

I probably shouldn’t pick this game, but as Mr. Armchair puts it: NFL in Europe my ass. Why do you need to do this? It’s the middle of the EPL season. Londoners don’t give a shit about football, as most of the rest of Europe doesn’t either. These teams don’t want to travel for hours to play a football game in front of a crowd as neutral as Switzerland. Basically I put this in the bonus because I have no idea how the Patriots are 7 pt favorites against anyone. ANYONE. Even the Bills or Titans or Chiefs. The Patriots have lost the killer instinct and anyone can play catchup on that Patriots defense. I think it works out better for New England if they are playing catchup like they did in Buffalo. Anyhow, this spread is currently 1-3 pts too high and after all the Rams were game against a Packers team that is starting to rev up its engines.

Bonus II!

Raiders @ Chiefs (-2)

I actually like several spreads, and without getting too crazy with Bonus picks I would’ve also put the Jaguars (+14) @ Packers and 49ers @ Cardinals (+6.5) in my picks, but I won’t. But since I withheld a bonus last week, I feel comfortable doing two this week. I like this one because Oakland sucks, they got a fortunate win and they are travelling to Arrowhead against a home team coming off a bye. Also I needed a favorite and this one is probably my favorite favorite (see what I did there?).  I know I’m banking on Brady Quinn and bet against him two weeks ago, but that’s the fickle nature of NFL bets. You have to jump off your biases as quick as you can and be objective as to the matchups and circumstances. You know what else I like, the fact that Oakland hasn’t lost at Kansas City since 2006. If I’m going against Bye Week Andy, I’m going against this little nugget too.

Last week: 4-1, Season: 17-13 (19-15 with bonus)