Well, my Detroit/St. Louis
World Series call last week is looking better every day. Such a crucial matchup
tonight with Lincecum on the mound for the Giants against Adam Wainwright. I
canvassed some Giants fans I know and most seem cautiously optimistic about Lincecum
going tonight. They cite his second half and his postseason relief appearances
as evidence he’s turned the corner. Im not a believer, but he very well may
rise to the occasion. Game 4 of the NLCS is not a road game in June against the
Nationals. If he has any semblance left of his former Cy Young abilities, he’ll
unleash it tonight. The Giants season largely hinges on it. They won’t be able
to afford going down 3-1 with another Bumgarner start looming.
Detroit on the other
hand has simply rolled through a horribly slumping Yankees team that lost its
face, captain, and one of its actually productive offensive players this postseason
in Derek Jeter. Prior to the postseason I dismissed the Tigers as a non-threat.
I don’t think I was totally wrong. Things that plagued them all season have
cropped up in both their series but they have been fortunate enough to get the
most lights out pitching performance of these playoffs from their entire rotation.
The lineup still struggles to score and the back end of that bullpen is a mess.
It drives me nuts seeing such an incomplete team run on to the World Series
when the Rangers this year working on all cylinders would have crushed the
Tigers. That’s baseball though, as the Yankees are figuring out…going cold in
September and October kills your postseason fast.
I still stand by my
pick, if St. Louis gets by the Giants I think they win it all and mail a nice
thank you letter to Bud Selig for the extra wild card spot.
Before I get into the
recap of my own mini-slump, I wanted to speak about coaching in the NFL. We are
in Week 7 and it’s getting close to time for our first dismissal and mid-season
interim coach. Sure we’ve already had an
interim-interim coach and a interim coach for medical reasons, but no one has
been fired yet. It’s coming. In no other sport is coaching an equal factor in
determining whether a team wins or loses. Managers in baseball can lose games,
but they never win them. Basketball coaches can help, and certainly there were
some great ones versus terrible ones, but basketball is such an individual
sport that no matter how good you are, unless you have one of the 10 elite
players in the league (or a player playing like one) you simply can’t win, no
matter how good you are. I mean Erik Spoelstra is not a good NBA. He was abused
by Rick Carlisle, and almost lost to Scotty Brooks (also not a good NBA coach)
in the NBA Finals the past two years. He also almost got knocked out Doc Rivers
with a much more inferior squad of players in the East Finals last year.
But in the NFL coaches
matter. We watched the Saints roll with an interim interim coach that had no
idea what he was doing and lead them to an 0-4 team until they ran into easily
the worst head coach in the league Norv Turner. While the Colts were spirited
in their first game with an interim head coach, they got simply abused against
a clearly bad Jets team. Andy Reid has no idea how to finish games or manage
the most crucial situations that require the most intervention by coaches.
Conversely, coaches like
Jim Harbaugh, John Harbuagh, Tom Coughlin, John Fox, Bill Belichick know how to
get the most from what they have. I think John Fox is one of the more
underrated coaches in the NFL, but a great stat was shown on MNF this week that
shows John Fox as 40-3 when getting 26 points from his team. It shows me that
he knows how to control a game such that even getting less than 4 touchdowns he
can win almost every time. Andy Reid wouldn’t know what to do. Norv Turner sure
as hell doesn’t know what he’s doing.
I’ve never seen a coach panic as bad as he did
with a 24-14 lead. Denver can’t stop the run. You can’t pass protect. Makes
perfect sense to keep grinding this thing out, keeping yourself in short 2nd
and 3rd downs and keeping the Broncos out of their pass rush package
and opening yourself for the play action game and short pass game that works so
well to hide an offensive line that is banged up and underperforming. Instead
Norv just wings it around the field
exposing Rivers to the pass rush that resulted in a bunch of turnovers. Let’s
put it this way, the Broncos have been down by 20+ four times this year and
Norv is only one to blow it. I simply do not understand how this happens. How
can a GM continue to be employed when he endorses such a shitty coach for
years?
This is how: be an owner
and a GM. Hi, my name is Jerry Jones. I am one crazy egomaniac that thinks I
know even a smidgeon about player personnel. I want all the attention, and
absolutely do not want to be upstaged by my head coach. This is why I have
employed Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett as head coaches since Parcells left.
Parcells occupied too much media. Wade and Jason hang out in the background
while I get to talk and say how ‘disappointed’ I am in my team’s mounting
losses. Let’s not mention the fact that Wade and Jason have no business being
head coaches. Wade Phillips is THRIVING as the defensive coordinator in
Houston. Jason Garrett would be an effective offensive coordinator in a lot of
places. But these guys are simply not head coaches. They aren’t leaders. They
are specialized on one side of the ball. An effective head coach is a game
manager, not a play caller. That’s why you have coordinators. You come up with
what you want accomplished and the coordinator goes and finds the play for you.
I think this has killed Garrett. He simply botches time management. Take last week for example. Dallas got into
way too many situations where the play clock was near expiring as Dallas got
set. I’ve never seen two illegal shift penalties back to back. But when you get
plays in late and run out of time this crap happens. After recovering the
onside kick AND getting bailed out with what I thought was a ticky tack PI
call you had about 26 seconds left and
one timeout and in position for a difficult 52 yard field goal. So what do you
do? Well the first thing Jason Garret did was throw a flare out to Dez Bryant
for a yard that kept the clock rolling. Well the play ended in like 3 seconds,
you can take your timeout with 23 seconds left and run ANY play you want and
still have ample time to stop the clock via spike. What does Jason Garrett do?
He decides 51 yards is close enough runs 17 seconds off the clock and takes his
timeout with 6 seconds left to kick a 51 yard field goal that is missed wide
left. Here is what I think is going
through his head after the PI call:
Jason Garrett: YES, the
refs just totally bailed me out. Now what do I do…
(15 seconds elapse in
silence over Tony Romo’s earpiece)
Jason Garrett: Oh crap,
10 seconds left on the play clock, uhhhh bubble screen to Dez, yeah that will
work.
(Garrett watches the
play)
Jason Garrett: Well that
didn’t work. (Ignores that the clock is still running)
Bill Callahan
(O-Coordinator for Dallas): Hey Jason I can call a play if you would like, I’ve
been pretty bored up here and I thought it was my job to call plays and with
our timeout I have a great route for Witten in the soft spot of the Ravens
middle zone.
Jason Garrett: Well I
don’t know, I’ve only ever called the plays and I’m pretty good at it.
Bill Callahan: Well you
hired me to coordinate the offense and I did lead the Raiders to a Super Bowl
in 2002, and you haven’t even gotten to the playoffs yet.
Jason Garrett: Hold that
thought…where does our kicker like the ball? Someone track down that Bailey
kid!
(clock ticks to under 10
seconds)
(Romo has a what bunch
of fucking idiots I work with look on his face)
Jason Garrett: Ok, I got
it! Tony run 42 fake dive X-Post with a hard count…oh is that 6 seconds the
play clock or the game clock? Game clock?!?!? Timeout! Oh there you are Bailey,
where do you like the ball?
Dan Bailey: Right hash
mark.
Jason Garrett: Where’s
the ball?
Dan Bailey: Left hash
mark.
Jason Garrett: Oh well
too late now, just go save my ass.
(Dan Bailey hooks the
kick left, when a right hash mark kick would have been straight down the
middle)
Jerry Jones: Ok, I have
to look solemn. I’m ‘disappointed’. Except now Garrett is the scapegoat again,
and people will yell at him and not me for being a terrible personnel man.
Me: (Bandaging my hand after
punching a window while I email to the guy at www.firejasongarrett.com to sign on
as a contributor).
It has been torture
being a Cowboys fan for the last decade. But keep these lessons in mind when a
team with a bad coach is favored. Just as Andy Reid and Norv Turner did last
week, it’s real easy for them to pull defeat from the jaws of victory.
On to the Supercontest!
WEEK 6 RECAP
Bengals (PK) @ Browns
What the hell, man? Is
it me or is it now time to start betting against Andy Dalton at every chance?
He has looked terrible this season. But so has that Cincinnati run game. Still,
it’s the Cleveland Browns, have some pride Cincy. Also for the love of god some
one please cover Josh Gordon. The guy only has 12 catches this year and is averaging
22 yards a catch. He only goes one way, up the field. Ugh. I should’ve just
stayed away, but the pick’em was so tantalizing.
Patriots (-3.5) @
Seahawks
This is another bullshit
should’ve covered game, like I had last week. A Tom Brady intentional grounding
through the back of the end zone at the half? An ill-advised Tom Brady pass
into the end zone that gets picked? Ridiculous. Seattle has a good defense, but
had absolutely no business winning this game or even making it closer than 7
points. I have no idea what’s going on in New England but they can’t be trusted
right now.
Vikings (-2.5) @
Redskins
Simmons had been warning
me about this game. A decent Vikings team going on the road was bound to have a
letdown game. RG3 was back and geez he was unstoppable on the ground. I’m not
taking too many lessons from this game other than Simmons warned me. But with
this thing you either go with your head or you go with some kind of law of
averages gut feeling that the Viking shave to have a let down at some point. I’m
not upset by this pick.
Chiefs @ Buccaneers
(-3.5)
Easy. Money. I am really
sad the Chiefs are on bye this week.
Giants (+4.5) @ 49ers
Exactly what I thought
would happen, happened. The Giants stayed even and then got ahead and in the
second half simply abused Alex Smith. Annoying 49er friends I have keep trying
to tell me Alex Smith is better than Tony Romo. You guys know who you are. You
also know you’re full of it. This is why I can’t pick the 49ers to win the
Super Bowl, or even get there. You just simply can’t be one of those teams that
loses the second you are down 10. It’s going to happen. A team may score on it’s
first drive, you may give a special team touchdown, a random defensive td might
happen on a fumble, a bad penalty call, something. In the two games they have
gone down early in the first half they’ve simply haven’t had a chance to win. I
just think the 49ers have to be one of the least likely of the favorites to win
it all based on that.
BONUS
Rams @ Dolphins (-3.5)
This was just a bonus,
but man this one stung. This was a perfect read, until freaking Steven Jackson
CATCHES a 2 pt conversion on the right side of the end zone. So stupid. I hate
picking spreads in football sometimes. Bullshit like this happens way too
often. That being said, I’m riding the Dolphins at home and against mediocre
and bad teams. I think in such a crappy conference they actually have 5 or 6
seed potential now.
WEEK 7 PICKS
(Ed. Note: Before I pick these, I just found it
very interesting how few 7.5+ spreads there have been these last couple of
weeks. Even Vegas doesn’t seem to have that good of an idea of what’s going on.
Either that or that we are more in parity than ever in the NFL)
Lions @ Bears (-6.5)
Give me the Bears. The
Lions are bad. They were absolutely crushed last weekend until Andy Reid couldn’t
figure out how to stop a team they had stopped easily for 3 quarters. How do
you just forget? In other news, I still don’t believe in the Lions. They haven’t
looked good in any game this year. You know who has looked good in several
games? Da Bears. Coming off a bye against a team that can’t run, I smell at
least one Charles Tillman touchdown and just total domination on all sides.
That’s a lot of points to give up on MNF but it is at home and I think the
Bears will succeed where the Eagles failed.
Jaguars (+4.5) @ Raiders
Look, I know picking the
Jaguars seems kind of taboo or whatever, since we don’t know what they are. But
I do know the Raiders are bad and should not be giving 4.5 points to anybody.
Jacksonville off bye helps this decision too, especially with the Raiders
coming off an emotional loss on the road. I don’t really see the Raiders
getting up for this game the same way and while they can win this game just
fine, 4.5 is too many points.
Cowboys (-2.5) @
Panthers
I tried to stay away
from betting one way or another on the Cowboys, but with 6 teams on bye and my
forbidden use of the Thursday game, I don’t have too many to choose from. I
think this spread is 1.5 pts too low. The Panthers may be home, coming off a
bye, but I have no faith in them whatsoever. Dallas can run and pass all over
the Panthers and the Cowboys defense is legit. I can see them getting Cam into
a situation where he has to win downfield and he just can’t do it. Of course, I
am totally prepared for Garrett and the Cowboys to let me down again.
Titans (+3.5) @ Bills
I don’t know why I am
doing it. I know it’s wrong. I know I shouldn’t do it. But I JUST CAN’T HELP
MYSELF. I like the 10 days off. I like that Buffalo still almost lost to an
offense that sucks even worse than Tennessee’s. I like that Buffalo’s offense just
doesn’t seem right. I like that Tennessee showed up at least against
Pittsburgh, even if they shouldn’t have won that game and I like the more than
field goal spread. Am I going to lose here? Probably, but I just can’t help
myself. The Titans are like a drug for me. Must have something to do with me
trying to will Chris Johnson to become a useful fantasy player.
Steelers (-2.5) @
Bengals
This is simply a spite
pick. Honestly this qualifies as a trap game but I just couldn’t get myself to
take the Packers as 5.5 favorites on the road against the Rams. I couldn’t do
it, I don’t buy what the Packers did last week as legitimate. Here, I simply am
pissed off at the Bengals for fucking an easy pick last week. Pittsburgh is
banged up everywhere but I don’t care. They need this game or else they are out
of the division. The Bengals have a very bad defense that made Brandon Weeden
look quite competent. Andy Dalton has been shitacular. I’m riding my gut that
Pittsburgh wins an ugly one on Sunday night.
Last week: 2-3, Season: 13-12 (15-14 with bonus)
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