I still will never
understand America’s continuing declining love of baseball and refusal to love
soccer. Football is a good sport, but it can have its mundane qualities too. 40
seconds between actions, 3 and outs, 2 yard carries, incomplete passes, there
is a lot of boring aspects to individual plays in football. As I’ve written and
talked about for years, basketball isn’t even a 4 quarter spectator sport, it’s
a 1 quarter spectator sport. For most of the first 3 quarters you pay to watch,
or invest time to watch, guys loafing around operating at 50-75% on any given
play.
Meanwhile baseball and
soccer both have the benefit of building a crescendo before scores (runners on
base, build-up counter-attack in soccer) and either giving you a big let down
or huge jubilation. You just don’t get those same emotional highs and lows in
the other two sports, with the exception of maybe a deep pass in football. Sure
baseball and soccer have its equally mundane parts, but so does every other
sport.
While my Rangers were a
complete let down this year it’s still extraordinarily hard to turn the
playoffs off. Every crescendo you feel in a regular baseball game is magnified
in the playoffs. This year’s playoff’s has been no exception. Starting with the wild card games and
continuing through every division series going the distance these playoffs have
been more memorable in the early stages than most.
We’ve had three walk-off
wins, we’ve had a 225 foot infield fly rule, we’ve had a number of major league
rookie starting pitchers throw down excellent games (Darvish, Nearly every A’s
starter), we’ve had back to back extra inning games in one series, a complete
game shutout by the best pitcher in baseball in a Game 5, and we’ve seen the
first ever 0-2 deficit overcome in the NLDS.
As we continue the road
to another baseball champion I had a few thoughts to share about what has
happened in the last week with every team:
Texas: No heart. It’s as
simple as that. Maybe Ron Washington gets blamed for not resting some of the
starters down the stretch but what was he supposed to do? The job is to win the
division and you have play your players until you get there. It’s then the
players’ job to perform. None of those guys are rookies. That whole team is
basically World Series veterans. They just showed me no heart heading into that
last two week stretch. Then when their one “rookie” throws a playoff gem, no
one steps up to back him up. Hopefully the taste of embarrassment boosts this
team going into the offseason with decisions about Hamilton and Napoli at the
forefront.
Atlanta: I guess if there
was one team jobbed by the new playoff system it was Atlanta. But really, you
need to just play the game. It wasn’t as if Atlanta backed into the playoffs
either, they made so progress on Washington towards the end and looked primed
to make a run. But St. Louis was just better.
The infield fly call itself wasn’t that bad either, it’s just the timing
and the fact no one caught the ball. It’s a borderline call, especially given
the language “ordinary effort by an infielder”. The shortstop in that case
certainly wasn’t making anything other than ordinary effort, it just happened
to be a lot of ordinary effort. Kind of a sad way for Chipper to end his
career, but it’s better than finishing last place. Atlanta has a bright future.
Cincinnati: Ahhhh, thank
you Cincinnati for taking some of the attention away from our collapse. The
first team in NLDS history to lose a 2-0 series lead and probably Dusty’s last
season. It is unfortunate to lose your Cy Young candidate in the first inning
and not have him available the rest of the series and then be forced to pitch
your second best pitcher after being sick the day before, but you just gotta
win. Homer Bailey threw a gem and the Reds couldn’t close it out against
Vogelsong. That’s too bad.
Oakland: It was a great
run and that might have been the first time I’ve seen a home team lose an elimination
game and then do a curtain call to the fans who gave them a standing ovation.
No one knows what to expect from these kids next year but its clear they have
to be considered armed and dangerous. Unlike the Baltimore in their series though, I just think Oakland was just
slightly outplayed the entire series. But they may have just taken the next
World Series champs 5 games and that’s something to be proud of for a bunch of
guys expected to lose all season.
Baltimore: Well they
have one shot against CC to advance to a place not even the most diehard
Orioles fan thought they would go: the ALCS. Baltimore by all rights probably
should have punched their ticket already, but one thing is for sure in these
last two games at the Bronx, the Orioles aren’t phased one bit. A night after
losing a gut punch game in the 9th and 12th innings, the
Orioles played tough got out of jams and sprung a run in the 13th to
win. It’s never say die for the Orioles. Despite the result tonight, Baltimore
fans should eb proud. Too bad they wont get the chance to give their Birds a
standing O after the game.
New York: A surprisingly
low scoring series for the Bronx Bombers. Their offense is woefully bad right
now. If they are going to advance they need to get the Granderson and ARod bats
going. Just like the A’s you can’t expect the Yankees to win a pitching duel
against the Tigers with no offense. I hope the Orioles get it done, but just like
Verlander last night in game 5 it’s hard to bet against CC on the line here
tonight.
Washington: A team I
predicted to win a division then flame out in the playoffs almost did that. The
Edwin Jackson start in game 3 shows how much Washington needed Strasburg this
series and beyond. Despite their struggles, they have hung around enough to force
a game 5 at home with Gio Gonzalez on the mound. There are worse places to be.
I thought this team was these least surprising “surprising” playoff team so
while it awesome for the fans in Washington have postseason baseball for the
first time in several decade I don’t think the Nationals fans will be happy
with just forcing a 5 game series the way A’s fans were.
St. Louis: A team that
just won’t die. 10 games worse than the Nationals in the National League
despite playing in a division where they get a lot of games against Chicago and
Houston, yet they look every bit like the better team in this series. I hope
nothing more than for these guys to lose today, but I’m just not confident.
They have come to play every game of the playoffs so far and these guys have a
chance to run it all the way back for another title. Makes me sick.
San Francisco: Another team
that wouldn’t die. With the stupidest playoff motto “Orange October” they
lucked out not having to face the full force of the Reds pitching staff. I
think if the Cards and Giants play the Cards will crush them, I think Giants
fans are hoping for the Nationals to pull off the victory knowing they don’t
have to face Strasburg who absolutely dominated them this year. I’m still
hard-pressed to believe this is the best team in the National League.
Detroit: They definitely
faced one of the toughest rotations in the American League playoffs and came
out and showed they had probably the best. Between Verlander, Fister, and
Scherzer it’s just going to be hard for Baltimore or New York to win 4. Unless
they can get to the bullpen early. Detroit’s bullpen is mess and while Valverde
certainly blew the save in Game 4, he was lucky there was a save to be had as
Benoit was equally bad in the 8th inning. Detroit is not without its
flaws but they certainly look poised to claim a title as well.
My world series call at
this point is Detroit v. Washington/St. Louis.
I think if St. Louis make it they win again, if Washington makes it I think
Detroit wins. Too bad I can’t say the name Rangers in this sentence. Still can’t
believe what a letdown they were.
On to the Supercontest!
WEEK 5 RECAP
Falcons (-3) @ Redskins
The Falcons sure looked
sluggish for a little while but then an RG3 concussion and superior offensive
talent won the day. The Falcons could be a shaky bet until they actually lose
now, but I think if I’m only laying 1-4 points against bad defenses I’ll take
the Falcons every week. That offense is simply too good. I just think the
Falcons will see more 5-8 spreads going forward now after taking care of
business on the road by 7.
Texans (-8) @ Jets
This game is why gambling
is frustrating. One turnover and one kick return and the Texans can’t cover an
otherwise easy to cover game. Take away the momentum and good field position
from the Schaub interception and the ridiculously bad coverage by the Texans on
McKnight’s return and you are looking at 23-3. About the score I predicted for
this game. That one stung but not as bad as a couple others on here.
Ravens (-5) @ Chiefs
This was more hurtful.
It also goes to show that Flacco is not and probably win never be elite. When
Kansas City has been torched by every QB from Brees to Rivers to Fitzpatrick
you can’t put up this stinker. This game was maddening, but from a teaser
perspective it could’ve been much worse if Cassel didn’t fumble at the goal
line. I don’t have any explanation for this one other than Flacco isn’t elite
and this is just another example of why gambling is tough in the NFL.
Packers (-7) @ Colts
For one half I was
dead-on in this pick. Green Bay came out hard and the Colts looked sluggish as
Green Bay gets a quick 21-3 lead and I cost to a win here. But noooooo, Green
Bay, as a they have done all year, takes a whole half off and allows the Colts
to storm back and win. Ridiculous. This game blew my 6 team 10am teaser (I hit
everyone else even the Browns +14.5). I’m out on the Packers, I was a little
worried as I expressed coming into this game but I’m not picking them to cover
squat. They just don’t look anything like the team from last year. I think it’s
that regular season syndrome where you go 15-1 lose in your first playoff game
and realize that winning 15 games in the regular season doesn’t mean shit if
you can’t win in the playoffs. This happens all the time in sports and has
happened recently with some of my teams: The 2008 Mavericks regular season was
sloppy after coasting to the best record in 2007 only to get beat in the first
round by the #8 seed and this year’s Rangers who clearly grew tired of the
regular season so much so they pissed away their division in a span of 10
games. The Packers are only going to do enough to win or to just barely lose
all season. Unless it’s against Jay Cutler in Green Bay. Of course, I also got bit by karma like I
feared for betting against a team whose coach was just diagnosed with leukemia.
Chargers (+3.5) @ Saints
Yet another one that got
blown at the end of the game. Only Norv Turner can blow a 24-14 lead to an
interim interim head coach. I had this spread locked down all game until the 4th
quarter and this ultimately let me down. I’m really pissed I went 1-4 this week
because it’s one of the most inexplicable 1-4 records. I didn’t make bad picks.
Good teams (or mediocre teams in the case of the Chargers) simply pulled out
enough to win (or lose if you are the goddamn Packers). I guess moving into
Week 6 it’s something to consider that these good teams are getting ground down
just as much as the bad teams.
BONUS
Eagles (+3.5) @ Steelers
Of course my bonus pick
was sort of lucky and sort of not. Pittsburgh is not a good team. Philadelphia
is not a good team. They both showed that in this game. But, Philadelphia was
looking grossly incompetent on offense for nearly the entire game until they
managed one good drive into the end zone without turning it over near the end.
Then the Steelers pulled out just enough to win. Haha, too bad I made this my
bonus and not one of the 5, but I think it was the right call.
A little side note, last
night’s game is a perfect example of why I now refuse to make any Thursday
night game one of my picks. Every week one team doesn’t show up, but the
problem is, it’s not just a pick the home team thing, or pick the underdog thing.
At home as an underdog, Tennessee easily covered what I thought was a low
spread (5.5). At home as a favorite, Baltimore didn’t cover. At home as a pick ‘em
the Panthers embarrassed themselves. The Thursday night game is a terrible
place to make picks. What this does show me is that Pittsburgh is not good, and
I feel as confident as ever in my 7-9 prediction for them.
WEEK 6 PICKS
Bengals (PK) @ Browns
The Bengals aren’t good,
but the Browns are clearly terrible. After taking a quick 14 nothing lead
thanks to one Bradshaw fumble and one blown coverage, the Browns couldn’t move
the ball the rest of the game except in garbage time down 21 and proceeded to
give up 41 points after taking that quick lead. I don’t think Cincinnati’s loss
is that bad. It’s clear now that Miami is the AFC’s Vikings, a spunky team that
doesn’t have a totally ineffective offense to pair along with a decent
defense. Cincy has to win this game.
Patriots (-3.5) @
Seahawks
Yeah, yeah I know, it’s
taboo to pick against the Seahawks at home. But there aren’t a lot of fun
spreads out there and I thought the Pats are giving a point less here than they
should. After all, the Packers ostensibly beat Seattle in Seattle by 5. Why
can’t the Patriots beat them by 4? The Patriots are moving the ball very well
and since the beginning of the second half against Buffalo in Week 4 they have
been as good on offense as any team. Also, this pick is an indictment on
Russell Wilson. Carolina does not have a good defense yet the Seahawks can
barely muster up one decent touchdown drive the whole game. Even if the
Seahawks defense comes to play this still smells like 20-10.
Vikings (-2.5) @
Redskins
The Vikings are due for
a letdown game, but I said it two weeks ago and I’m sticking by it until proven
otherwise, I like Vikings lines where the spreads are between -3 and +3. I have
no confidence the Redskins can win this game, even at home, even with RG3 back
against a decent defense. If I’m giving less than 3 in that case I’ll take it.
Chiefs @ Buccaneers
(-3.5)
I want to bet against
Brady Quinn, that’s it really. Plus the Bucs are coming off a bye. Plus, I’d
really like to see Jamaal Charles try to run against a 9 man front. Plus Kansas
City is on the road. That’s 3 plusses. Enough for me to lay 3.5 points.
Giants (+4.5) @ 49ers
This is a prototypical
game the Giants win. On the road, as underdogs, against a good team. The one
concern you have here is watching the Giants go down 10+ early. If that happens it will be pretty damn hard
for the Giants to worm their way back, and the Giants have had a bad history
this season already of going down big to lesser teams (Bucs and Browns). I
think they get up for this one, as they usually do in these types of
circumstances. It will be interesting to
watch the Niners offense actually work against a defense that can do at least
one thing productively. They haven’t seen that in 3 weeks.
BONUS
Rams @ Dolphins (-3.5)
I already explained
above I think the Dolphins are a quality team. What drives this is that the
Rams aren’t good, just benefitted last week from one of the worst offensive
line performances of the season last week by the Cardinals. But if you told me
that Bradford would complete only 33% of his passes and the running game
averaged 3.5 ypc, I would think they lost. I can foresee similar numbers by the
Rams in Miami this week and the Dolphins, unlike the Cardinals, actually do
have a counter for Chris Long on their offensive line. This won’t be an
exciting game but certainly one the Dolphins can win handily.
Last week: 1-4, Season: 11-9 (13-10 with bonus)
No comments:
Post a Comment