Supercontest!

So I've been asked by some friends recently about spreads and bets in a variety of sports and I've been on a hot streak lately so I thought it was time to do my own Supercontest blog. Of course by doing this I doom myself to be terrible the rest of the football season but whatever, at least I don't have $1,500.00 on the line.
In case you don't know what the Hilton (now "The LVH" - sorry Hilton that doesn't hip Supercontest is go here: http://www.thelvh.com/supercontest

I meant to start this last week, but life gets in the way. Going forward I'll make sure to get these out, despite expecting my first born later this season. So the gist of this is, pick five games and choose one team based on the spread of the game. The interesting thing about this is the picks have to be in by 11am on Saturday, when we still dont know the status of all of our "game time decision" players. The LVH also sets the lines on Wednesday, when we know even less about the teams and the lines haven't been affected by bettor money. So pick your 5 favorite bets and lets get going!

Again, these are not the current lines as of today, but the ones in play for the LVH Supercontest in which I am pretending to be playing for a 440k payday. 

Ravens (+2.5) @ Eagles

I know I was in on the Eagles in my preseason picks, but I was also higher on the Ravens.  The Eagles almost let me down last week and almost make me want to change my division pick. I just don't know how Vick even stays upright this season if he is going to get hit like that against a no-named Browns front seven. What's Baltimore going to do to his this week? Meanwhile Baltimore was firing on all cylinders and looked every bit like the AFC favorite I think them to be. Philadephia is one of the least advantageous homefields (Eagles are 7-9 in the last two years v. 11-5 on the road) and Baltimore is one of the few legitimately dangerous teams on both sides of the ball.  Don't get me wrong I think Philly's defense is for real this year so this game should be close but I think Baltimore wins and in the process covers this spread.

Chiefs (+3) @ Bills

I firmly believe the Bills are as bad as they showed last week. They made some moves on defense in the offseason but they were still the worst scoring defense in the AFC last year. They just got shredded by Mark Sanchez. Mark Sanchez just shredded a team. It was the Bills. The Bills got shredded by Mark Sanchez. Just though I'd pound that in to anyone's head who sincerely thought the Bills were some kind of sleeper this year despite the fact they barely improved the worst defense last year and start Ryan "I...uh...broke my ribs, yeah that it's it!" Fitzpatrick. They gave up 48 points to the Jets. Just incredible.

Meanwhile the Chiefs also looked bad but were actually missing two very key defensive pieces against a team I though was actually good, the Falcons. The Chiefs boast at least two skill players (Charles and Bowe) better than any on the Jets and the Chiefs are just simply better than they looked last week. Hali and Flowers are back. Buffalo is awful. Goooooooo Chiefs!

Cardinals @ Patriots (-13.5)

This line has to have some kind of trap component to it. Kevin "deer in headlights" Kolb on the road against the AFC champs. West Coast team playing an early game on the east coast. Why isnt this line like 17? Do people really believe the Cards have a defense capable of stopping New England? Are the Cardinals really any better than the Titans? The Patriots handled the Titans by 20. I expect at least something similar here like 34-13 or 35-10 in this game and I think most of you are nodding your heads in agreement. Don't know what else to say except Kevin Kolb.

Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Giants

After those first three it gets hard for me to like any lines. So I'm going to spend the next two putting my money where my mouth is. I have Tampa as a playoff team and NYG not. So in that case why can't the Buccaneers stay within 7.5 even if they lose on the road? Add in the fact that the Buccaneers renewed defense shut down Cam Cam, the Giants also suck at home, the Buccaneers can run on teams, the Giants can be run on and lastly, Josh Freeman lost 30 pounds! Or something. Somehow thats a good thing, I think. Look I don't love this line, but I think based on Greg Schiano (candidate for this year's Harbaugh, where a good tough coach replaces a shitty coach) and the way these Bucs play, it's more likely they stay within this 7.5 than not.

Titans (+6) @ Chargers

I believe the Titans are better than they looked last week. Was it disappointing to see one of my AFC playoff teams get beat soundly at home on opening day? Yeah. But it's the Patriots. Knowing Belichick they've been game planning that game for 2 weeks. When Belichick gets 2 weeks he'll kill most other coaches. The Chargers barely beat a Raiders team hell-bent on giving them this game and only had one good offensive player. I know it was by 8, but still with all the long snapper issues and the way that game played out I just still absolutely do not trust San Diego. Besides, it's Norv Turner in September. This is totally a game everyone thinks they should win that they inexplicably lose because they are unprepared and Norv doesn't know what he's doing.

Bonus: So I'm not including it, but it was the one line I thought about over the Titans one.

Vikings @ Colts (+1)

I think, repeat think, the Colts will win this one. The Vikings are overrated and took overtime at home to beat what I think is a worse team than the Colts. The Colts started a rookie QB in the buzzsaw that is Soldier Field. The Vikings gave up Blaine Gabbert's best career game he'll ever have. If Luck can't duplicate then I'm out on Luck this year. What concerns me is that the Colts defense is one of those units that you just knew would be bad entering the season and was. Can Adrian Peterson single handedly win this game? It looks like it based on last week. I like Luck to come out in the home opener and win (the kid is no stranger to high pressure big games, I doubt he'll be phased by the jitters), but I was scared off enough by Adrian Peterson v. Indy Defense to back off this.

IT'S A TRAP!

Here a couple lines I think are total bettor traps for whatever reason. Im not telling you to be the underdog, just that the favorite lines represent traps that will suck bettors in that could destroy parlays.

Cowboys (-3) @ Seahawks

Based on Dallas walking into New York and throwing down a great performance and Seattle shitting the bed against the Cards, Vegas is urging you to parlay the Cowboys in every one of your parlays. Don't do it. Just like Seattle did last week, Dallas has kill all parlays potential this week. Seattle is easily the top homefield advantage in the league (Sorry, KC and Pittsburgh), just ask the New Orleans Saints how that earthquake caused by Marshawn Lynch and 70,000 Seattle fans felt. Seattle has a good defense and there are enough issues that cropped up in that Dallas/NYG game that I'm nervous about this game. The O-Line still looks shaky and Dallas still continues to commit way too many drive killing penalties. They almost did it last week when Witten held on the 3rd and 2 to ice the game and Romo had to bail them out with the best slant throw any NFL QB can make. Just stay away.

Broncos @ Falcons (-3)

Atlanta looked dominant on offense and walked into KC and threw down 40. Now they are home they have to be a shoe in right? Peyton Manning showed me more than enough last week to still fully believe in the following rules: Don't bet against Peyton on national TV and don't bet against Peyton indoors. This is Peyton's only indoor game this year and I think he can take full advantage. This game is a total toss-up but don't bet the Falcons thinking its too low of a line. The Broncos have a real shot to upset one of my NFC favorites in this particular circumstance.

Browns @ Bengals (-7)

The Browns have zero offense. Certainly the Bengals can win by 7. I think the Browns defense is grossly underrated and Bengals were less than overwhelming on either offense or defense against the Ravens. It's a divisional game and battle of Ohio. This line just might be too high or Weedon just might be bad enough that it doesn't matter. But if the Eagles couldn't cover 7, I doubt the Bengals can.

Good luck to you bettors out there!