It’s time for my prognosticating skills to be put to the
test in the annual “What we know is we don’t know anything” predictions for the
NFL. It is simply so difficult to know what is going to happen in any given NFL
year. Look at the Super Bowl last year. We are looking at one Tom Brady completed
pass to Wes Welker for a different champion. Every week some bounce of the
ball, or roughing the passer penalty, or unfortunate injury turns the tide of a
game. With only 16 games, these effects are greatly emphasized compared to the
82 game seasons of hockey and basketball, or the 162 game season of
baseball. For this reason let me just
say, the NFL needs its refs back. I understand there is no such thing as a
popular ref and we all hate them, but they are the best we have. If they
weren’t they wouldn’t be there. While we have replacement refs we just add
another element of randomness to the season. There is already too much in
football. Bring back the refs!
Lets get started with the predictions shall we?
NFC East
Philadelphia 11-5
Dallas Cowboys 10-6
New York Giants 8-8
Washington Redskins 6-10
This division is a nightmare to predict. All four of these
teams can win it and I wouldn’t be shocked. Sure I predicted Washington at
6-10, largely because I don’t have a ton of confidence in year 1 of RGIII and
the Redskins are all assholes, but they definitely have talent and as I write
this I may move them to 7-9. I think we would all be lying to ourselves if we
didn’t think Philadelphia had the best overall collection of talent and
coaching. Sure Andy Reid fucks up two minutes drills but when healthy the
offensive skill players of the Eagles are easily the most explosive in the
division. That’s saying a lot when you are looking at Dez Bryant, Miles Austin,
DeMarco Murray, Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Hakeem
Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw, and David Wilson in the same division. I mean all of
those players are fantasy starters including the Eagles’ foursome of Vick,
McCoy, Jackson and Maclin and many of them in the top tier of their positions.
As much as I hate to say it I like the Eagles here because
they have a full offseason to pull everything together that they brought in a
hurried offseason last year. Desean Jackson looks focused and deadly. Vick will
stay healthy enough for them to win 11 games. If Vick was an injury case this
team could be 13-3 easy. The Cowboys come in as a team with as much talent but
maybe some more question marks. I could see them at 8-8 again and I could see
them at 12-4. Split the difference. Unfortunately, some things are cropping up
that seem to never go away: an injured secondary, a Miles Austin hamstring
issue, and the offensive line continuing to use the holding penalty as their
best weapon against sacks. Just frustrating every year, but they have a softer
schedule and I think 10 is appropriate.
The Giants were 9-7 last year, lets not forget that. Sure
they won the Super Bowl, but they were a couple of blown coverages from Cowboys
away from not even making the playoffs. I don’t see why this year’s regular
season should be any different, especially with the first place schedule they
have. Amazing pass rush and good passing game, but this team just isn’t any
different from the one that barely squeaked in. I leave them out this year.
Washington has some pieces to like and I think that defense this year will be
good. It all hinges on RGIII being able to run the team all season. I just have
little faith in it happening this year. Pierre Garcon as your best weapon
doesn’t help either.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 12-4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-6
New Orleans Saints 7-9
Carolina Panthers 6-10
Yep already busting out against the grain. Two years ago I
told a good friend Tampa Bay is winning 10 games. They did. I have the same
feeling about this team again. They spent some money and draft picks bolstering
that offense and are praying that Schiano schemes up a better defense than they
had last year. What’s helpful is I don’t think the South is as great as
everyone claims it to be. The Saints just have a foul stink on them this year
and I don’t trust them to be good this year. Carolina has done little in the
off season to repair that horrible defense and the offense can’t expect to be
any better than it was last year, they performed great.
The Falcons though, I think are primed to cruise through the
division. They look sleek and seamless on offense, basically Packers Light. The
Packers defense was terrible last year and they went 15-1. I think the Falcons
are going to emulate the Packers offense this year requiring little support
from their defense. They are the 2nd best team in the NFC.
For Tampa there are simply a lot of things to like about a
huge bounce back. A weaker Saints team, a middling Panthers team, a legitimate
WR, an actual 3 down RB, a new pro bowl guard, and most importantly a new tough
minded coach. You see this every year, a team gets rid of a dog shit coach and
replaces him with a new tough disciplinarian coach and they succeed. Look at
the 49ers last year for example.
I simply think too much has gone wrong in New Orleans and
they have had personnel defections and suspensions to deal with in addition to
missing the head of the coaching staff. Sure Brees is back, but man this just
feels like a giveaway year for the Saints.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 13-3
Chicago Bears 9-7
Detroit Lions 8-8
Minnesota Vikings 3-13
Packers are a dynasty.
That was an ugly playoff game they played last year but there are few
teams that should compete with them and you don't win. Im not buying into the Bears as a playoff
team. They have an above average offense but that defense is getting older and
never seems to stay healthy, especially in the secondary. The Lions are ok, I
think they played above and beyond their talent last year, and the defense is
still terrible. Also, how long until the strength of that defense (the line)
gets suspended for multiple games? Minnesota and Christian Ponder and not 100%
Adrian Peterson all suck.
Chicago seems to be a big time dark horse team for talking
heads and I just don’t get it. I think it’s the name brand that seems to sway
people than the actual on field talent. Yeah Cutler and Marshall are reunited
and Forte is probably a top 10 running back, but all of those players aren’t
elite in my mind and will likely continued to be plagued by horrible O-line
play. And they make up the more talented part of the roster. The defense was
middling last year in terms of both scoring and yardage. Nothing has changed on that side of ball. I
just don’t see how this is a 10 win team.
The Lions simply lack enough defense to be consistent,
that’s the end of the story. They will be able to score, but so will everyone
they play. It doesn’t bode well for a playoff record. The Vikings are a mess
and lack talent basically everywhere. Bring on Matt Barkley!
NFC West
San Francisco 10-6
Seattle 9-7
St. Louis 5-11
Arizona 4-12
While it doesn’t resemble the mess it was 2 years ago, this
still rivals the AFC South for worst division in football. San Francisco fans
have to expect a regression from a season in which everything when right,
especially that enormous turnover differential.
Yes some of it is manufactured by the best defense in the NFL but they
won so many games close late that the tide has to shift. A 3 game regression is
expected.
I think Seattle is more talented than people give them
credit for, until you see Russell Wilson starting Week 1. I loved him in
college but this isn’t ideal for the Seahawks who are currently paying 2012
money to Matt Flynn and Tarvaris Jackson to not start for them. But Seattle has
the best homefield advantage in football, a weak division, and some talent on
all sides of the ball. Pete Carroll the GM may suck, but Pete Carroll the coach
isn’t half bad.
St. Louis has nowhere to go but up. Injuries, injuries and
more injuries really held this team down last year as Bradford spent much of
the year throwing to players named Brandon Gibson and Danario Alexander until
he was rescued with a midseason trade for Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd is gone again
but there is some new talent there with Brian Quick and the other Steve Smith.
I mean they have to go up from last year’s 2-14 record right?
I can’t tell which is worse, Arizona’s QB or their O-line. Kolb
and Skelton are obviously bottom feeder quarterbacks in the NFL, but when you
give them no time to throw…yeeesh. Given that they don’t have a top defense
either, even in a crappy division, I can’t see them winning much. 4 may be
generous.
AFC East
New England Patriots 11-5
Buffalo Bills 7-9
New York Jets 7-9
Miami Dolphins 6-10
First one to 35 points wins in any New England game this
year. More likely than not it will be New England. Sporting a passing attack
with more weapons than even the Packers, they continue to have enough firepower
to make up for what will again be a terrible defense. They did it last year,
why not this year? While Brady and Belichick wear the red white and blue, this
team is a lock for double digit wins every year. It sure helps when they have
other excellent pieces around them.
I was ready to be sneaky and give the Dolphins consideration
as a wild card team this year but not with Ryan Tannehill back there. The
Dolphins were really good in the second half of the season with Matt Moore at
the helm. Why blow it up for someone who isn’t Andrew Luck? The Bills are, well
the Bills. They are about as obscure as a team now as the Seahawks, tucked away
in the corner of the continent. The Bills sport (probably) the 2nd
best QB in the division and some talent on offense, but they were the AFCs
worst defense last year and Stephon Gilmore isn’t enough to change that. But
I’ll give them one more win than last year.
The best thing to do with the Jets is to wager when Tebow
will start. The Jets offense has been comically bad in the pre-season for what
its worth, but even last year they simply weren’t good. They lead off with
Buffalo, @Pittsburgh, @Miami and Houston. There is a very real chance they go
1-3 or even 0-4 in that stretch. Is there a chance Tebow starts then? The
sooner they get him in, the sooner they start winning. My guess is Tebow never
starts this year without injury to Sanchez. The Jets are all in on Sanchez at
least for this year. If he fails (which he will) then maybe Tebow gets a chance
next year and can actually spend one full off-season and training camp in his
career getting all the 1st team reps, instead of getting backup reps
or starting reps as a punt protector.
AFC South
Houston Texans 11-5
Tennessee Titans 9-7
Indianapolis Colts 6-10
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13
People seem to think this division is super terrible for
some reason. Houston was probably the best AFC team last year and if they had
Schaub may have been super bowl champs. They did have a lot of player defections
including some pieces on the O-Line, Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans but they
had a lot of talent on defense and I think they won’t miss a beat. That said
they are the Texans and while they were good last year I still ahvent forgotten
the last half decade of the shoulda-0been Texans. They just have a bad habit of
losing games they shouldn’t have. They could be 14-2 or 9-7 and I wouldn’t be
surprised one bit. 11-5 feels right.
I don’t really see how there is any real difference at this
point between Jake Locker and Matt Hasselbeck. They didn’t have Kenny Britt for
more than 3 games last year and Chris Johnons was simply awful all year and
never rounded into shape. By all accounts their offense should be even better
this year and they went 9-7 last year. I don’t get why people are writing them
off so quickly.
The Colts were bad, but it wasn’t just Orlovsky syndrome.
The defense was horrible, the O-line was bad and I’m not even sure they really
employed a running back last year. Good quarterbacks can change the fortunes of
a team super quickly. If Cam can take a horrible defense in Carolina and give
them 6 wins, Luck can too.
Blaine Gabbert is the worst starting QB in the league. Hands
down. But they do have a strong defense and a strong commitment to the run, so
they wont be embarrassing as they lose 13 games this year. Next year if they
have Barkley throwing to Blackmon I’d be happy to make this a good team.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 11-5
Cincinnati Bengals 8-8
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-9
Cleveland Browns 4-12
I like Baltimore a lot this year, but their schedule is so
tough. They were one horribly bad dropped pass from being in and probably winning
the Super Bowl as well. I think this division is also overrated much like the AFC
South is a bit underrated, and I think Baltimore will cruise to a title in this
division easier than people think.
Cincinnati was a playoff team last year but I can see them
regressing this year. They have a good defense and Andy Dalton did manage to
prove some doubters wrong like me. But I
get the sense that the NFL is ready for these guys this time around. They have
enough talent to be a playoff contender again but I just feel like with that
increased difficulty in schedule (trading in the NFC West and a depressed AFC
South for the NFC East and AFC West) they just fall short.
Pittsburgh is my team to fall off the map and it’s going to
start offensively. They tried to repair a horrible line with DeCastro and he is
already out for the season. No matter how tough and durable Ben is, you can
only get hit so many times by NFL players before you break and he gets hit more
than anyone. Look there is being 30 years old and there is being Ben
Roethlisberger 30 years old. I have strong doubts about him even making it
through 75% of the season. The schedule is tough and without Ben this team is
god awful.
Cleveland. Underrated defense and possibly a decent running
game gives them the same fighting chance as Jacksonville. I loved Weedon in
college but he doesn’t seem to have grasped the NFL game. It’s nto like Cleveland
has any other options. They’ll lose 13 games but I don’t think they’ll look
Arizona or Minnesota bad doing it.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs 10-6
Denver Broncos 9-7
Oakland Raiders 8-8
San Diego Chargers 7-9
Look this is the most obviously wide open division in
football and usually it can be a pretty fun division and I think this division
will produce some of our best games this year. Odds are I have this division
completely wrong, but I actually *cringe* believe in Romeo Crennel winning this
division. Kansas City returns a wealth of talent from ACL blow outs, has
probably the 2nd best home field advantage and a slightly easier
schedule and more talent on offense by default. I just think they are the most
solid team in the division.
Peyton Manning in 2010 wasn’t the same as 2005. Why am I
supposed to believe that he will be even as good as 2010? Now of course, he is
a better QB right now than Tebow. No one can question that, but they won 4
games last year that wouldn’t win 9 out of 10 times and still only finished
8-8. They were a 5-11 team or 6-10 team last year and everyone seems to forget
the absolute ass kicking they got at the hands of the Patriots in the playoffs.
So I have enough faith in Peyton Manning to give them 3-4 more expected wins.
But not enough faith to believe that they are all of the sudden in the same
class as New England, Baltimore, and Houston.
Oakland is an enigma. I think they are solid on both sides
of the ball. It all rests on Carson and while he of course has talent and youd
probably rather have him than Gabbert, Ponder, Fitzpatrick, Cassel, Weedon,
Locker, Tannehill and Wilson/Flynn, I just don’t believe hes good enough to get
them over the edge and that’s all they need at this point, is a top 15 QB. Not
this year.
I’m sick and tired of always hearing San Diego come up as a
division winner or super bowl contender. They have m-fing Norv Turner as head
coach. End of story. Why they brought back Turner again is simply beyond me.
But this goes deeper than that. Their skill positions have deteriorated over
the last couple of years. At his very best Ryan Mathews doesn’t present near
the threat of LT. Antonio Gates is now 32 with two seasons of feet problems.
Philip Rivers turns 31 this and has had his interception rate increase over the
last two seasons and his velocity dip. There’s more to this. He was Drew
Bledsoesque in the pocket when he was 23. At 31 he’s basically a statute back
there. He’s definitely Roehtlisberger problems between his non-mobility and
fading O-Line. I don’t think he’s ever the same again. The O-line has lost
several key players from those mid-late 2000s team and the defense no longer
has enough electric playmakers. Simply put this is just a mediocre team now and
there is nothing on paper or on film last year that would make me believe this
isn’t the worst team in the division.
NFC Playoff Teams: Eagles, Cowboys, Falcons, Bucs, Packers,
49ers
NFC Champ Game: Packers over Falcons
AFC Playoff Teams: Patriots, Texans, Titans, Ravens, Chiefs,
Broncos
AFC Champ Game: Ravens over Patriots
Super Bowl: Packers over Ravens
It’s nice to have football back, enjoy the ride readers!
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