Supercontest Week 3

So I didn’t perform terribad, but I wasn’t great last week. The rules of the Supercontest require me to submit all my picks before the Thursday game so that’s why this blog is up early. I think I’ll review last week’s picks before I jump into this slate. It may help me select better.

Ravens (+2.5) @ Eagles – So I won this one but not in the way imagined. The Ravens were obviously robbed by one of the worst calls in recent memory and certainly outplayed the Eagles. But who cares, I was right to trust in the Ravens getting points here and I won.  Ravens will be dangerous all weeks.

Chiefs (+3) @ Bills – Wow. Two teams have hung 35+ on the Chiefs, this time with defensive players back for Kansas City and the offense belonging to Buffalo.  I just don’t know what to think. Is Kansas City really that bad? Did I underestimate Buffalo at home? I have no idea only I guess it’s safe to trust neither team at this point.

Cardinals @ Patriots (-13.5) – So I figured out the trap. Arizona has a good defense. Certainly not elite, but good enough not to lose by 14 points. New England has O-line problems that may make it difficult to cover double digit spreads too. Nice to keep that handy.

Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Giants – Until the 4^th quarter the Bucs defense was solid. I won this one but not in the way imagined either. Tampa Bay may struggle to score this year. New York is going to score 20+ like every game.

Tennessee (+6) @ San Diego – Hahahaha. Tennessee is possibly the worst team in the league right now. Masked by the omnipresent criticism of Chris Johnson is the fact that the O-line sucks, Jake Locker is inaccurate and the defense is one of the worst in the league. I’m still not giving SD a pass especially since any team that gives up 3 TDs to Dante Rosario obviously sucks. San Diego clearly has not played anyone good yet based on Oakland and Tennessee’s current results.

This weeks picks!

Giants @ Panthers (Even) – Im taking the Panthers here. With the absence of a couple of skill position players, the Panthers may be able to tweak their defense enough to really slow down the Giants. Meanwhile Carolina is at home and New York simply doesn’t look poised to stop them.  New York travels on the short week and Carolina doesn’t. I just think Carolina has the edge and with an even spread that’s all I need.

Falcons (+3.5) @ Chargers – I simply don’t get this line. I don’t think the Monday night football turnover for Atlanta makes any difference here, and it is clear that San Diego has face neither an offense nor defense as good as Atlanta’s. I am all in on Atlanta and the fact I get points is a plus.

Eagles @ Cardinals (+4) – Sure Arizona can’t score that much, but I think I like my chances here with a home dog facing a team that just lost its starting center and turns the ball over more than anyone else. The starting center loss is a sneaky play here as the Eagles are already missing Jason Peters and center losses seem to cause chemistry issues on offense. I’ll bet the Eagles win this game, but not by more than 4. If Jeremy Maclin misses this game it’s a lock.

Texans (-2.5) @ Broncos – The Texans have flown under the radar early this season as they basically made no noise. They beat down handily two teams (Dolphins/Jaguars) they were supposed to. This is the first “test” for the Texans, but I think they are legit and one of the few solid all around teams in the league. Meanwhile Peyton, for really the first time in his career, is having to deal with constant performance questions based on his arm strength. I’m interested to see how he handles this, especially after the showing against Atlanta where he just looked confused for half the game. The Texans are the best defense he’ll see thus far (yes better than Pittsburgh’s) and he just wotn be able to come from behind for a 2^nd straight game.

Lions (-3.5) @ Titans – This barely made the list over the bonus game this week. I don’t love the Lions, but 

I did like their resolve against the 49ers last week in San Francisco on Sunday Night. The Titans simply have not been good on all sides of the ball. When that is the case you just feel fortunate this line is 3.5 and not like 6. Nothing scientific here, just that Tennessee simply doesn’t pass the smell test and the Lions can at least do one thing really good. The Titans can’t do anything mediocre.

Bonus Game!

49ers (-7) @ Vikings – I thought about making this a trap game but I didn’t have any good reasons why this was a trap other than the Metrodome roof collapsing. Sure the Vikes have AP, Harvin, and Ponder who looks like an ok QB (I thought he was a good choice after the draft), but the Vikes defense sucks and the 49ers defense has looked great. 7 is a lot, especially for a west coast team travelling for an early game, but the relative talent on the field and with the headsets are just grossly in the 49ers favor. I wasn’t confident enough to make it one of my picks but I think it’s a good bet.

It’s a trap!

Jets @ Dolphins (+3) – I don’t see how you can possibly bet on this game. Division game in Miami, Jets shellacked one team and then got shellacked by another. Ditto for the Dolphins. These are two mediocre teams that know each other well and anything can happen. Stay away, even from the Dolphins (+3), since you simply can’t rely on Tannehill. No dollars to this game.

Bengals @ Redskins (-3.5) – Simply can’t trust the Redskins here to lay the points missing two of their best defensive players. I’m sure the Bengals can’t stop Skins, the Skins may not be able to stop the Bengals. This has randomness written all over it even though the Redskins have surely looked like a competent team.

Packers (-3) @ Seahawks – I think this is pretty self-explanatory. Seattle, in primetime, at home. Earthquakes galore. Even though the Packers are certainly the better team, Vegas just sucks you into to only giving up 3 and next thing you know Rodgers and Co. can’t see muster more than 13 points for most of the game. I’m double down on the trap here with Seattle at home after last week.

Record: 2-3 in the Supercontest, 3-3 with the bonus.

Good luck to everyone as they wager their milk money this week!