National League opening day is Wednesday April 4, with a one game series between the defending champ St. Louis Cardinals and the revamped (in multiple ways) Miami Marlins. Much more interesting game than the Oakland/Seattle "regular season" games we were treated to last week. This seems as good of a time as any to do my National League preview. In fact, lucky reader, you get a double dose. The Two Guys and Mic podcast did a national league preview and you can enrich your ears and your mind by listening to that and supplementing it with my actual records predictions, since i spared my listeners a bunch of numbers. Check out and download the blog here:
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As usual we will start with the west coast since left is best, and to counteract all that BS ESPN east coast bias.
National League West
San Francisco Giants 92-70
Arizona Diamondbacks 86-76
Los Angeles Dodgers 81-81
Colorado Rockies 75-87
San Diego Padres 70-92
San Francisco still returns at minimum the second most feared rotation in the national leagues behind Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner that single-handedly helped them win 86 games last year. In fact, winning 86 games was a semi-miracle given the atrocious offense displayed last season. If you have the second lowest runs allowed in the national league you shouldn't also have a negative run differential on the season. Hence why I think they were lucky to win 86. A regression to 80 would be expected if they were return the same offense, but they don't. The return of Buster Posey, and addition of Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan, as well as the expected slight growth of Brandon Belt should add all the offense the Giants need to add 6 wins to their total last year.
Nothing significant has changed from the Diamondbacks roster. It is a very solid team on offense and in the bullpen. In fact we have no idea where Justin Upton's ceiling is, its probably around Matt Kemp's current production. I can see a regression from Ian Kennedy and maybe even Daniel Hudson that causes them to lose a handful more games this year, but it will still be a good team that pushes for the playoffs one way or another.
The Dodgers made stories this offseason, but not for any player, only because they were sold for a whopping 2 billion dollars. We wont get into how ridiculous that number is considering one of the three assets they bought was a 50 year old rat trap of a stadium. It also doesn't affect this season, other than maybe the players get to deal with excitement around the team instead of gloom following the McCourt divorce last year. It didn't seem to affect their play as they won 82 last year. There is a decent chance that you will find both your Cy Young and MVP on this team in Kershaw and Kemp. The offense is decent for the division but i worry about that rotation, at least if they get a lead theyll keep it with an above average pen. They can push for the wild card but I think this division will be tough for them to crack.
The Rockies need pitching, 49 year old Jamie Moyer anyone? But their offense is likely the class of the division and just like the Rangers of old that leads to low to mid 70s win total. Playing in the National League I'll give their offense a greater advantage than if it was in the AL and give them the mid 70s.
San Diego lost its "slugger" for the first month (Carlos Quentin) and generally sports a bunch of 6-9 hitters in the entirety of their lineup. They also lost their set up man (Mike Adams), their closer (Heath Bell) and their ace (Mat Latos) to start this season. They always have the benefit of Petco Park keeping them in games by nerfing the other teams offense but you still have to score 1 run to win. 70 may be too high, but this Padres has a similar amount of talent to return near the 71 they won last year.
National League Central
Milwaukee Brewers 87-75
St. Louis Cardinals 83-79
Cincinnati Reds 82-80
Pittsburgh Pirates 79-83
Chicago Cubs 71-91
Houston Astros 58-104
The Brewers lost Prince Fielder, but they still made a couple of significant additions this offseason. First they got 50 more games of Ryan Braun. If he was out for those 50 games they'd be lucky to have a winning season this year. They also added a nice bat in Aramis Ramirez. While obviously not as talented or studly as Fielder, he is a very solid bat and should still provide Braun enough protection to let him do his thing. They have two great front of rotation pitchers(Grienke and Gallardo) and a great back end of the bullpen (Axford and K-Rod) that I think makes them the most complete team in the division and the clear frontrunners.
The Cardinals are also dealing with losses, this from Pujols and resident baseball "genius" fuckface manager Tony LaRussa. The Cardinals also made a solid replacement for Pujols in Beltran and are looking to get Adam Wainwright back this season as well. It's a solid National League team with a decent offense and one that will contend for the division again, despite losing Carpenter for an unknown amount of time.
For some reason everyone likes the Reds, I'm guessing because they acquired Latos from the Padres. Hope he has a season's worth of ice since Dusty will run him ragged. The offense can challenge for the best in the division with Bruce, Votto, and Phillips, but I just don't like rotation. You have to expect regression from Latos moving from Petco to Great America and I can't believe the Reds are still rolling Arroyo and super duper post hype sleeper Homer Bailey out there as their 3 and 4 in the rotation. Nothing about this team really feels like a winner to me.
Well this would be a seven game improvement for the Pirates who imploded post All-Star break last season. They didn't lose anyone decent and gain AJ Burnett for what its worth. There is a chance he could add a decent amount of talent to a National League rotation, but he's injured so who knows what they will get from him once he does come back around May. This win increase is due to weakening of the better clubs and the continued expected growth from their young bucks.
Chicago is in rebuilding and toxic asset removal mode. They've almost finished the second part, just gotta find a away to move Soriano. Theo Epstein has already called this a rebuilding year and there is no way they contend. 71 is what they won last year and it's what they get this year. I think they have an underrated rotation that will keep them in it, much like the Padres, but it's still a 90 loss season for sure.
Houston is easily the worst team in baseball, 58 may be too generous. Nothing of note to talk about here, moving on.
National League East
Washington Nationals 95-67
Philadelphia Phillies 90-72
Atlanta Braves 85-75
Miami Marlins 77-85
NY Mets 75-87
You're damn right the Washington Montreal Expos Nationals are going to win this division. They have the combination of pitching and offense needed to win this division. It starts with the return of Stephen Strasburg. The guy is a sabermetrics hard-on. Every rate stat you can think of he has obliterated in his short major league career. He was out with Tommy John most of last year but when he returned he looked great. There were no hiccups with soreness in the spring this year and despite the 160 innings cap he likely has its going to be 160 amazing innings. But the rotation isnt just Steve. They added Gio Gonzalez in the offseason and Jordan Zimmerman has a decent full season under his belt after his Tommy John. They also have some offensive talent. I fully expect Werth to bounceback and when Morse comes back from the DL he is a masher. I am adding a speculative value to Bryce Harper. I think he's up June 1 and I think he's Ryan Braun/Ryan Howard quality on his call-up. (Ryan Howard's call-up 22 home runs, 63 RBI in 88 games; Ryan Braun 34 home runs 97 RBI in 113 games in his). This team has a ton to like and not a ton to hate. They also have one of the deepest bullpens in the league. Go Expos!
The Phillies lost Oswalt and replace him with Vance Worley. For what it's what I hate Oswalt and the way he handled himself last year but he is better than Worley. They also have no idea when Ryan Howard or Chase Utley will be back this season. Both injuries are a a kind of wait and see thing. Utley's is his knee but it strikes me along the lines of Joe Mauer's leg problems last year. Losing Oswalt, Howard and Utley is quite significant. They are now rolling out a lineup that still has some talent in Victorino, Rollins and Pence, but i think Victorino and Rollins are regression cases and that threesome certainly can't hold down the offense without Utley or Howard or both. Sure they still have the likely best trio of starters in the NL in Halladay, Lee, and Hamels, that's why they win 90. But their losses in their roster is why they don't win the division.
Lost in the collapse of the Red Sox was the Braves equally ignominious collapse. Why no story? No beer and fried chicken that's why. I don't know what to think of this team. They are either very young or very old. I think that has the makings of another inconsistent season. You have such young guns as Tommy Hanson, Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy in the rotation with grayhair Tim Hudson. The rotation could be awesome or Hanson could get hurt and Beachy continues the inconsistency he showed this spring and Hudson finally falls off the cliff unable to recover from offseason back surgery. The lineup is the same: young guys in Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman and older than dirt Chipper Jones is still a vital component of the lineup. The Braves could run away with the division or lose 80 games, i wouldn't be surprised either way. I'm hedging and giving them 85 and missing the playoffs by 1 game...again.
Miami has all sorts of new looks. New first name, new logo, new stadium, new manager, new marquee infielder. I think if I was to pick a dark horse in this league to surprise it would be the Marlins. Picking the Nationals the win the division is bold but I'm not the only one picking them. Miami making the playoffs this year would be shocking. The addition of Jose Reyes to a rejuvenated and healthy Hanley Ramirez and young stud Giancarlo Stanton makes this a potent offense. Ozzie Guillen, for all his brashness, does get the best out of his guys and the rotation has some nice arms. Thats where it needs to come together for Miami. Josh Johnson is a stud when healthy but thats always plagued him in his career, Buerhle reunites with his manager from Chicago and gives Miami a quality arm. The question marks come from Zambrano (does change of scenery help?) Anibal Sanchez (can he finally find consistency that belies his talent?) and Ricky Nolasco (can he finally harnaess the command of his power stuff?). I don't think they do it this year, but it would not surprise me one bet if everything came together here.
If you listened to the podcast and then did your due diligence you realize that i changed my mind regarding the Mets. I said that NY and Miami would increase their win totals and then you now see me with New York regressing from last season. I've changed my mind because I've realized there is nothing about the Mets I like. Even Johan Santana coming back doesn't do anything for me. He was already regressing for years before missing all of last year. The offense lost Beltran and Reyes from last season and replaced them with Ruben Tejada and Andres Torres? The rotation outside of Jon Niese (who the Mets agree is a decent up and comer) makes me vomit a little. R.A. Dickey, Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee is not what I would want to comprise 3/5 of my rotation. Especially in a strong offensive division like this one. Even the bullpen is a mess with only Bobby Parnell pitching like a major leaguer. Sorry Mets, I retract my podcast statement. You will regress and it will be a long season for the blue and orange pinstripers.
Obviously my wild cards are the Phillies and Diamondbacks. I couldn't make a prediction on the podcast with who would win out of the National League and after reviewing it, I think I will take the easy way out and take the Phillies. Pitching wins and they have the most.
Stay tuned for the much more entertaining AL preview blog and podcast. Feel free to comment below and agree or disagree with my predictions. Just know this, the Washington Nationals are the best team record-wise in the NL by the end of the year. Am I stupid? Stupid like a fox.
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