Super Bowl "Odds" and Ends

So before I get started with this week's issue, I want to discuss the upgrade I'm making to my blog. At the encouragement of Gabe, who comments on this blog religiously, we have decided to do a joint podcast. Background on Gabe, he is a DJ for an upstate New York radio station so he has that voice that just sounds like butter in your ears. I met him here during my undergrad days at Sac State while I worked for Century Theaters. He has a significant background in sports through his own competition as a high school athlete, specifically football and wrestling, and carried that through to a brief coaching career at the high school football level. He is originally from SoCal making him an unbearable Angels fan which I am sure will lead to more healthy discussion in future podcasts.

I did the podcast specifically for you guys to give you something to listen to on your way to and from work, while you are at gym, while you are doing chores around the house, or bored at work. This inaugural edition is 24 minutes, it is obviously a little rough as its my first time doing anything of the sort (although Gabe is clearly much more natural at it), it is publicly downloadable from the link below in an mp3 format so it is playable on any device that can play digital music and it is also playable directly from the website itself on your computer! The podcast itself touches on the AFC/NFC Champ games, my Super Bowl prediction, and a my incredulous reaction to the fact that Eli vs. Peyton is actually being viewed as a legitimate debate on ESPN should Eli win a second super bowl.

I just ask you guys to give it a shot at some point and leave me feedback regarding it. Anything, positive, negative, neutral, whatever. I do these things to entertain you guys out there in the blogosphere and Id like to make sure the product I put out is worthwhile. I will not be doing a podcast once a week, they require much more work than this blog does, plus it takes away from the blog itself. I dont have a schedule as to when i will do the next one, but feedback left will encourage me to do another one sooner rather than later. Make any comments on it to the blog, the comments section on the podcast website require a sign up and I dont want to require you guys to deal with that.

Lastly, I intend to have guests appear in the podcast from time to time, so if you are interested in getting on the podcast and openly debating or agreeing with me just let me know!

The podcast: http://soundcloud.com/gabey2783/podcast-1-final

The download link is in the row just above the audio feed, let me know if you have problems with it.

So, national signing day for high school football players to sign their binding contracts with their universities is tomorrow. It's a fun day for me as a fan of Florida as I get to drool over yet another top 5 or top 10 recruiting class according to the popular recruit services, Rivals.com and the ESPNU rankings. My man Mr. Armchair did a fine piece of being a fan during the process and for more recruiting blogs check him out here: http://mrarmchair.blogspot.com/2012/01/i-sit-and-wonder-is-it-too-much.html?showComment=1328042974321#c6196058195156470753

I didn't do a comprehensive review of the NFC/AFC Championship games last week and actually the podcast covers quite a bit of it. I did want to touch on a few things that didnt get covered though. Starting in the AFC, I think we finally saw the true colors of the Patriots. I do not believe they are best team in the AFC. I think Baltimore is a better team and really with the exception of Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff screwing the pooch they may have proved that on the field. I think a healthy Houston or Pittsburgh team was better too.

New England this year got away with being in a very mediocre division, the Jets were not the same team they were in 2009 and 2010, the Bills were obviously smoke and mirrors in the 4-1 start by finishing 2-9 the rest of the way and the Dolphins didn't know the season started until Week 9. The Patriots managed to go 13-3 with a schedule that saw them fail to beat a single team with a 9-7 or better record. In fact, they barely beat several non-playoff teams like the Cowboys in Week 6, the Colts in Week 13, and the Dolphins in Week 16. They were a bottom tier rushing team and a league worst defense. They got beat at home by an injury riddled Giants team in Week 9.

They beat a just happy to be there Broncos team in the divisional round, and skirted by in the championship round thanks to a no name DB making the play of his life on a sure TD pass to Lee Evans, and then Billy Cundiff shanking a 32 year field goal like it was a 52 yarder. That field goal was shanked bad.

Yet despite all this evidence that the Patriots aren't that good, they were favored in the opening line for the Super Bowl by 3 and on the site I use most (as well as many others), bovada.lv the line has remained the same, albeit you pay a little more juice on the Giants (-115) than on the Patriots (-105). The Patriots are riding two things that cause that line to be what it is: TomBill Bradychick and a "improved" defense. Just the mystique of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and their inability to lose three times in a row to an opponent (Giants have wont he last two meetings, Super Bowl 42 and Week 9 this year) is causing fans to froth at the mouth for the chance to get on the Patriots side. I understand that, they have been a dynamic duo for quite some time.



But i take exception to this "improved" Patriots defense. They have played two teams that are predicated on running the football and have below average passing numbers. The Patriots have two players who resemble NFL talent on defense: Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo. The Patriots are quite capable at scheming against the run and forcing mediocre quarterbacks to beat them. Congratulations. The Patroits defense is not well equipped to stop the Giants (or Saints or Packers) offense because they lack any semblance of a pass rush and their secondary is terrible. Too much credit is being given on this side of the ball. After all, when the Patriots did take away the run against the Ravens, Flacco managed 306 yards passing which represented his third highest total of the year. If I am a Patriots fan I am scared to think of what Eli can do to that defense, and how the Patriots can even stop the running game if the Giants get the passing game rolling. Good luck.

Many of my readers are 49ers fans which means they are well aware of what I think of their team and how they lost the NFC title game. Rather than twist the knife that's already deep in their heart, I think I'll just discuss two things that are related to the same thing: playcalling.

Jim Harbaugh is unquestionably the coach of the year. He took some great talent, good talent, and no talent and turned it into a defensive juggernaut with an efficient offense. But he made easily one of the most questionable calls of the game early in the 4th with the 49ers in Giants territory facing a 4th and 1 and he punted, despite holding a 4 point advantage. I'm not statistician but i think the reward grossly outweighed the risk there. For one thing the 49ers probably have a better than 50/50 shot at converting 4th and 1. After all they were 9/14 in 4th down conversions on the year. Even if you dont convert, your defense has been supercharged since halftime and theres no guarantee the decent field position would lead anywhere for the Giants. But if you do convert you keep driving for what may have proved to be at least a huge field goal, or possibly game sealing touchdown based on how the defense was playing. I was shocked to see the punt unit come on the field. P.S. The 49ers held the Giants to a 3 and out on that next possession.

The second playcall was the defensive shell the 49ers put themselves in on 3rd and 15 following the Kyle Williams leg muff. Maybe this isnt totally on Harbaugh, but he is the head coach and he can say what he wants to see here on defense. I watched that replay a number of times. Problem 1: 3 man rush. Eli Manning at this point in his career is too good to allow him to have several seconds. Problem 2: shallow zone. If level 1 of the defense consisted of the 3 man rush, then level 2 of the defense consisted of a combination of 5 DB/LBs in a flat zone across the field, none of them deeper than like the 5 yard line when the ball is thrown (the first down line was the 3). That left Problem 3: only 3 guys guarding the end zone and any other section of field beyond the first down marker. No matter if Eli gets 0 or 14 yards, I think the Giants based on their defense, and trust in their offense to move the ball within FG range would have kicked a FG there if they didnt make a 1st down and played for a game winning FG on their next drive at the end of the game. Harbaugh's defense played like they could only allow 7 yards, It was a bizarre defensive set in the situation and screamed (just like the 4th and 1 earlier in the quarter) "WE ARE PLAYING TO NOT LOSE!"

In the end we end up with an east coast Super Bowl that no one here cares about, except my friend Rick who got a unique side wedding present form me in the form a futures bet back in August. He chose the Patriots winning the Super Bowl at 3 to 1, meaning if they win he does net himself a cool 100 bucks simply for tying the knot. Kudos Ricky!

I gave my Super Bowl prediction last week and in the podcast and it still remains the same: Giants 31, Patriots 27. Rather than rehash my Super Bowl discussions, I thought I'd move on to the degenerate gambler in all of us and talk about some of my favorite proposition bets on the Super Bowl. If you aren't a gambling fan, the Super Bowl is the one event that sports books put out ridiculous bets that are simply impossible to handicap. It makes certain aspects of the Super Bowl more fun and of course will lead to an intervention from your family down the road. Here are a few of my favorites currently up:

1. Over/Under 1:34 for Kelly Clarkson to complete the National Anthem from the first note to finishing the word Brave. 

Gabe handicapped this and said he never sees singers hit this mark, they usually go longer. Christina Aguilera last year did 1:52. I like this bet because it gives you something to do during the national anthem. I am patriot as much as anyone else, but the idea of being totally involved in timing the national anthem at a Super Bowl party gets me excited.

2. Over/Under 3.5 for the amount of times Peyton Manning will be shown during the game. It only counts from kick off to the final whistle, with halftime excluded and it can only be live shots of him, not taped shots of him from the past. 

Peyton Manning is this year's offseason story. No more Brett Favre, no more lockout looming over everything, no debate over the #1 overall pick in April. Its all about where Peyton Manning ends up this offseason. Personally i still call the over on this because of the dual aspect of the where will Peyton go story, plus he is Eli's brother and that asinine debate ESPN is having over whether Eli is better (podcast spoiler: he's not ever going to be). Then again i could see him getting only 2 views, once showing him there and another time when the Giants are about to win or lose. I think its pretty even. Shockingly you pay more juice if you pick the over (-130) than the under (-110).

3. Over/Under 1 for the amount of times the David Tyree catch from Super Bowl 42 is shown from kickoff to final whistle excluding half time. 

This is a bizarre line. It sets up for a push. But i honestly think its the safest  of all the prop bets. That catch has to be guaranteed to be shown at least once during the telecast of the actual game. At worst you get your money back. At best you win the easiest prop bet of all time. The over does come with significant juice (-160), while the under actually gives you odds at (+120).

4. Will Madonna wear fishnet stockings during the halftime show at any point? You can bet on either yes or no, some of these question ones only allow a bet of yes. 

The half time show is one of the worst inventions in Super Bowl history. It's too long, it's too boring, and the performers just phone it in. In recent years since the Janet Jackson/Justin Timberlake wardrobe malfunction the Super Bowl has tried to get less racy acts. Madonna in the 80s would have been the ultimate blacklisted celebrity for this very reason. Now shes back but shes also like 55 years old. It's just not the same Madonna. So of course you need to make things interesting by gambling. This was the most interesting bet, because it could occur at any point during the show, thus keeping you possibly interested until the end. Also it's intriguing to see if Madonna falls back into her prime and dresses in cone bras and fishnet stockings. The odds are equal for both answers and you pay a hefty juice to bet it (-120) both sides. I'm going with no.

5. What color will the Gatorade be for the Gatorade shower at the end?

Clear or Water 7/4
Yellow 5/2
Orange 9/4
Red 6/1
Green 7/1
Blue 10/1

What better way to get excited a Super Bowl you other wise don't care about has come to an end then by sitting on the edge of your seat those last few minutes waiting to see what color gets dumped on tom coughlins head. For my money I think the favorite - clear/water is out. This is a premier marketing tool for Gatorade and the largest platform to do it on. Water stays in the bottles, Gatorade is in the coolers. If you do a google image search most of the baths are clear, with some yellow and orange thrown in. I saw one red one, which was the bath Saban got after the 2009 National Championship. I have never seen green in my life and I swear that I have seen several blue showers, which shocks me on the 10/1 thing. If you are trying to win this, I think you go with yellow, if you are trying to actually hit a significant payout on your bet i think you go red or blue.

Thats it for me this week. Please check out the podcast. Tell me your favorite prop bets! Comment! Enjoy! Happy Super Bowl!