What We Learned Last Weekend 9.27.11

What you should all learn is that I'll always stand up and take a bow for good predictions and welcome the rotten vegetable throwing when my prediction sucks. I made a number of predictions in both college and pro football prior to the season and in 3-4 weeks several of them look awful. This week I'd like to focus of several of those predictions, good and bad, as we look back at another week of football.

In the college ranks we have a new Number 1. It doesn't happen often that a #1 team wins by more than a touchdown against a decent team (who by the way beat them last year) and still gets leapfrogged by Number 2. But that's what we have this week as those large cats from the Bayou in Louisiana went into coal country and laid a smack down on the best the Big East has to offer. I wrote LSU off this year as a BCS contender because I felt like their schedule was way too brutal for them to escape unscathed. They played possibly the best the Pac-12 has to offer on a neutral field and definitely the best the Big East has to offer on the road and they still have to go into Tuscaloosa later in the year against what might be the best the SEC has to offer. But somehow Jarrett Lee has decided he figured out how to be a big game QB and with what is probably the best defense in the country they are very serious contenders.

See ya Florida St, no one will miss you. Sure I predicted them to be in the BCS Championship game last year, but as I indicated last week I'm glad they're not. Now they may not even make a BCS bowl after another loss to Clemson, despite what was supposed to be a pretty soft schedule.

It felt nice to get something right though. Oklahoma State went on the road into College Station and gave Texas A&M a parting shot as the Aggies are officially SEC now. This was a huge win for Oklahoma State and in order to justify their hype they need to do what all championship programs do and avoid any letdowns between now and that huge matchup with Oklahoma. In the meantime the Weeden to Blackmon connection is as sweet in college as Montana to Rice was in the pros.

Weeden has Ben Roethlisberger's face is I do say so myself. Women in Stillwater better watch out.

Alabama rolled pretty well against Arkansas. It was interesting to see Bama actually break out offensively against a decent opponent. That 'Bama/LSU game could be spectacular. If more than 15 players make it out of that game alive I'll be surprised.

Wisconsin and Nebraska rolled. They are rolling right into their BCS matchup this weekend. I think the winner here wins the Big 10 and has an outside shot at a chance in the title game. I made Nebraska my pick and I'm sticking by it, but the way Wisconsin is playing versus the way Nebraska is playing and being in Madison this weekend it's looking tough for the Cornhuskers. But at least the Big 10 got what it wanted when they added Nebraska. They got a big time football market with a team that is now very competitive every year. Should be a fun game. Nebraska must stop Russell Wilson. He is quietly sneaking up Heisman charts with how he has stepped into a new program and made Nick Toon a verifiable star at WR.

That one above is probably the biggest game of the week, but for me I am all geeked up to see how the Florida Muschampions handle a big time game for the first time this year. Luckily it is at home. John Brantley, much maligned last year, needs to step up and have a big game. He's much more comfortable in the pro style offense put in place by Charlie Weis, but he hasn't really been used this year as Rainey and Demps have been absolute monsters. When you are a collegiate track champion and average nearly 10 yards a carry through 4 games, life is pretty good.


Yeah that is what Demps has looked like in the first 4 games, as if he's just running track and outrunning everyone else on the field. I am always optimistic about my Gators and if they have a chance to knock off a top team I think this game presents their best chance this year. Go Gators!

There are a lot of other fun games this week. South Carolina will be put to the test again with Auburn coming to visit. South Carolina has started EVERY game slowly. Auburn has enough firepower to make things difficult for South Carolina if they start slowly. They are #10 but this is a trap game for sure.

A&M and Arkansas get to rebound from their wounds against each other. This has always been a natural rivalry and now with A&M coming to the SEC this should be fun. If either team scores less than 35 ill be surprised.

Last but not least the Fighting Dabo Swinneys go to Virginia Tech to take on the Beamers. Not so amazingly, Virginia Tech is undefeated, a little more amazingly, Clemson is. Clemson has had two good recruiting classes in the last 3 years and those guys are finally coming to play (Rivals.com #12 in 2008, and #19 in 2010). Clemson has always been that team with firepower but never the ability to be consistent. That might be changing this year and they will give Beamerball all it can handle on offense. I like Clemson's chances of taking the ACC lead this week.

Swinney does not look like a football coach to me. More like a chemist or my accountant. There's a good chance this is why the superior athletes here keep losing.

As for my predictions, well they are all still alive. South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Oregon, Oklahoma, Alabama, Nebraska, West Virginia, Stanford are all still in good shape to make BCS bowls, even if several of them look shaky *cough* South Carolina *cough*. Lets see if i still get (most) of the order right.

Moving to the pros it might be apparent after 3 weeks that my first coach fired prediction is wrong. I predicted Marvin Lewis as the first coach fired this year, but Tony Sparano or Todd Haley look to be in the driver's seat. I am still amazed that Marvin Lewis has a job. He must perform "extra" services for Cincy owner Mike Brown. Marvin has presided over the worst collection of criminals and malcontents ever. Between Cedric Benson, Chris Henry (R.I.P.) Odell Thurman (almost Defensive rookie of the year who ruined his career with drugs, drunk driving and kicking people), Chad Johnson (no off field stuff but definitely a 3 ring circus on his own), Terrell Ownes (ditto), Carson Palmer (who can blame him for retiring from this mess), and last but not least Jerome Simpson who was harboring 6 pounds of pot plus getting another 2.5 delivered. This is the NFL's version of the Portland Jail Blazers. Getting caught with 8.5 pounds of marijuana in your home is a problem. Almost a bigger problem than Simpson's head shape.

For all the problems caused this alien headed pot dealer and his cronies that came before him wearing the orange and black, the team actually had a decent shot to be 2-1. Meanwhile Miami and Kansas City look like they have no prayer to field a competitive team. I guess Marvin might survive being the first coach cut, but he needs to go. They are moving on from Carson, they need to move on from the problems and move on from a coach that can't control his team.

Speaking of the Dolphins and Chiefs, I'm starting a new segment tracking the Suck for Luck sweepstakes, presented by Imodium. Why Imodium? Well its the cure for diarrhea and well these teams look and play like shit.

1. Kansas City Chiefs - They nearly blew their advantage by trying to beat San Diego at its most vulnerable: in September. LUCKily (intentional pun from capitalization), they have Matt Cassel. A guy who can even put his hat on right. That image alone should be all anyone needs to understand why Kansas City must win the Suck for Luck.

2. Miami Dolphins - That new QBr stat ESPN keeps trying to use indicates that through 3 weeks Chad Henne is the 12th best rated QB ahead of Josh Freeman, Ben Roethlisberger, and wait for it...Philip Rivers. Yes. There is a stat out there that says Henne has been a better QB than Rivers for the first 3 weeks. Advanced stats can sometimes be silly. With Sparano (almost) gone and Brandon Marshall looking both suicidal and catatonic Miami should start tanking. Miami would probably be the 2nd best place for Luck to go. Fans there have been waiting for their new God...I mean Marino for 20 years. He would instantly own that city more than LeBron and Dwayne Wade combined.

3. Indianapolis Colts - Anyone question why I would pick Peyton Manning to be the most valuable player every year? Colts almost blew their shot too by trying as hard as I think they can to beat Pittsburgh. The problem here is, while the Colts need Luck to groom for Manning, the Colts just paid Manning A LOT of money. I'm not sure it's good finances to pay another 25 mil for a backup. Even though in 5 years they wont regret it.

4. Minnesota Vikings - They already drafted Ponder in the first round, who by the way will be starting in about 2.5 weeks. They are now completely wasting the last 2-3 good years of Adrian Peterson (the only bankable back now) by continuing to try to bridge the QB position with ancient washed up guys. I think Ponder might work, but if Minny is sitting with #1 its hard not to grab Luck and figure out which one is better. Having 2 QBs under rookie contract is much better than having McNabb start for you. I think they are better than 0-3 (They have lead each game by double digits at the half) so I doubt they end up in this discussion much longer.

5. St. Louis Rams - They are 0-3 but they have Bradford. So i'll move to a different team that isn't 0-3.

5b. Denver Broncos - Orton AND Quinn are not under contract through this year. Denver is at its very best the 3rd best team in the AFC WEst and if KC wants to keep playing spunky, I could see Denver losing twice to KC. Fans have been clamoring for Tebow all year, but John Fox obviously doesn't like him and I think fans will forget their Tebow lust should they land Andrew Luck.

Look at him. He's like a cross between Mr. Clean, Fabio, and the Brawny lumberjack with just a small amount of his own hotness thrown in there. Forget what I said before, Denver fans will never lose their Tebow lust. It's hypnotic.

Are Buffalo and Detroit for real? I think the answer is partially yes and partially no. They will be tough outs every week going forward. They just each won test games, not by dominating but by gritting out 20+ deficits. That's the definition of a tough out. For Buffalo this was something that wasn't entirely out of the blue. Last year they lost 4 games by 3 points to the following teams: Baltimore, Kansas City, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. They had the fight, now they are turning last year's close losses into close wins. Do I really believe Buffalo is a playoff team? No. I still think the Patriots, Jets, Steelers, and Ravens finish higher than them leaving them out. Could they go 10-6 and miss the playoffs? Absolutely.

For the Lions, I think they may actually be a playoff team. That was a gritty win on the road against a team they haven't beaten in several years. They have a tough schedule though and somehow have to earn a wild card by finishing higher than the non-division winners in the NFC East and South. They have a win against the Bucs, but their other two wins are against 0-3 teams. They get a decent test this week against the Cowboys on the road. Granted the Cowboys have issues in execution and injuries and are coming off a short week, but its another one of those tests for the Lions to learn how to win consistently in the NFL. I think it will be a great game.

NFC West - How awful is that division? It may be worse than last year. Arizona losing the worst team in the division just showed how bad it was. I think it's amazing but San Francisco might be the class of that division. That was a gutsy win on the road against a feisty defense. Also I can't wait to drop ALL of the money I will ever earn against Alex Smith in a playoff game against the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, Saints, Falcons, Bucs, Lions, Bears, or Packers. I don't care if the spread is 17. ALL THE MONEY IN THE MIDDLE!

















Another prediction looking good is going "against the grain" and not picking St. Louis to win the division. I said it at the beginning that the team isn't ready to win yet and they just didn't bother showing up against Baltimore. They have had a tough schedule to start with the Giants, Eagles, and Ravens, but they just look so sloppy and lack playmakers on both sides of the ball.

Just to balance it out, my Falcons prediction is looking terrible. They look terrible. They mortgaged their future to add Julio Jones as the missing piece but just can't seem to score (Philly game aside). If Vick doesn't go out the Falcons definitely are 0-3. With games against New Orleans (twice), Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Houston, plus 2 against the surprisingly spry Panthers and the a game against the Titans who seem to linger in every game like a stale fart, Atlanta really could go 8-8 this year. I stick by my predictions but this one is looking bad.

Besides the Lions-Cowboys game already mentioned, a couple of games I'm really interested in are Pittsburgh-Houston and New England-Oakland. The Pittsburgh game will say a lot about how good that defense really is when they step up against a top 5 offense. Also it will indicate how ready Houston will be to handle contenders. They lost that New Orleans game last week in usual Houston fashion so they still haven't learned. They get a second crack this week. I also want to see how for real the Raiders are. They are easily the best team in the bay area and with another east coast team coming to the bay I want to see if they can sustain success. That game should be fun (for once I don't get stuck watching unwatchable games due to the regional TV contracts).

To all my fantasy and pick em players happy hunting this week and go Cowboys and Gators!