Don't Ride the Dark Horses

Welcome back to the blog! With only two days until the start of the 2011 NFL season I feel like it is time to offer my 2011 projections for every team for the NFL season. Before I get started there I wanted to touch on a few college football tidbits form the first weekend of real football.

1. Oregon is done. I did predict this loss to LSU and with another predicted loss somewhere in the Pac-12 I think they are done. As a side note this also probably killed LeMichael James' heisman candidacy, he had a very pedestrian game and with so many other viable candidates I doubt the voters consider him at years end based on this performance.

2. Boise St is far from done. I didn't call this one. I stuck my pride in the SEC on the line with a marginal team and got burned. Boise St. wasn't flashy by any means but they were deadly efficient on both sides of the ball. Ill be very interested to see how the computers rate their MWC schedule this year versus their WAC schedule a year ago, it may make all the difference between the BCS bowl and just another at-large bid.

3. Florida looked great. Granted it's FAU, but man after last year's opener I think this 41-3 game was a welcome sight for Gators fans. Need to keep building in preparation of that October gauntlet.

4. "Notre Dame is going to a BCS bowl this year." - Brian Kelly. I laughed at this in the preseason and I laugh even more now. Granted they moved the ball and their offense put their defense in bad spots but you are not going to a BCS bowl game with Rees or Crist as your QB. Sorry.

5. TCU, the other non-AQ spoiler of year's past didn't miss a beat on offense, but where on earth did that brick wall defense go? TCU has no BCS shot this year, but they can be spoilers by dropping Boise St.

6. All BCS Champ contenders not previously mentioned: OK, Bama, Florida St, Nebraska, OK St, Texas A&M, Wisconsin all looked sharp in their opening games, with the exception of South Carolina. Not starting Garcia turned out to be a bad move for a half for Spurrier but they rebounded. Better not start so slow against Georgia this week.

Alright on to the 2011 NFL Preview. Again this will have the same form as the baseball predictions, I will predict each teams records and have a little blurb as to why i think the way I do. A lot of pundits have a bunch of so-called dark horses that could bust on the scene a la the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs. I identify them but I don't feel any of them are ready. Ordinarily 4-5 new playoff teams emerge every year. I follow this trend by kicking out the Bears, Seahawks, Colts, and Chiefs and repalce them with teams to be seen here in the preview.



NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Dallas Cowboys 11-5
New York Giants 9-7
Washington Redskins 5-11

Philadelphia Eagles - They made themselves into the Miami Heat of the NFL, but not because they assembled some dream team, that's impossible in the NFL. But the way they described themselves after the rush of signings put the targets square on their back. There are several things I don't like: the O-line, the linebackers, the safeties and the prolonged health of Michael Vick over 16 games. Those concerns aren't enough to prevent me from pickign them to win the division.

Dallas Cowboys - Yeah I know it's sick I didn't pick my own team but that defense still scares me. An easier out of division schedule (6 games against NFC west plus Miami and Buffalo) and the continued evolution under Rob Ryan on defense leads me to believe they can win 11 this eyar and go to the playoffs.

New York Giants - So many defections on offense and injuries to those who stayed. The Giants have potent offensive weapons but a remade line and mediocre defense lead them to a tough season in the NFC East. I just don't see them with a winning reocrd with Eli slinging it 40 times a game.

Washington Redskins - Shanahan ran out Haynesworth (not his guy) and McNabb (his guy) and placed the teams weak offense in the hands of "Aww fuck it I'm going deep" Rex Grossman. The defense has real talent but they will be on the field too often with what I project as a well below average offense.


NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers 12-4
Chicago Bears 9-7
Detroit Lions 8-8
Minnesota Vikings 8-8

Green Bay Packers - This team is still stacked with good young talent from its Super Bowl and while the black and blue division is tough, I think they are going to have more problems with their out of conference play in the NFC South. They have enough talent to beat anyone, but a target on their back plus a tough schedule leads me to believe they lose 4.

Chicago Bears - Yeah, I'm a hater. I hate Cutler, I hate Roy Williams, I hate that O-line. The defense is as good as any in the league but its starting to age and with age comes complaining. This time in the form of Lance Briggs asking out of Chicago. Between what i view as a subpar O and a regressing and troublemaking defense I don't see a return to the playoffs.

Detroit Lions - I'm drinking the Kool-Aid on the fantasy Lions, but not so much on the real Lions. They have a bunch of potent weapons on both sides of the ball, but we've heard this same garbage about Houston for 4 years now (more on them later) and I feel this is similar. They have no experience winning and they just have too tough of a slate. This team has real potential in 2-4 years if they keep building the right way, but actually winning in the NFL usually takes time.

Minnesota Vikings - I'm in line with the rest of the public who thinks McNabb is done. There is still talent, but if Favre couldn't get it done well there, I doubt McNabb is successful either. The defense has lost a lot of its luster from 2-3 years ago with defections and aging and Jared Allen can't pull it on his own. I would not be surprised to see Minnesota 0-4 to start the season .



NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons 12-4
New Orleans Saints 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-6
Carolina Panthers - 1-15

Atlanta Falcons - Pretty trendy Super Bowl pick and with an upgraded defense and the addition of what they hope is the last piece of the puzzle in Julio Jones they may make it. They aren't my choice but they aren't a bad choice. Again, I think they have enough talent to beat anyone but their schedule is tough and I think it translates into 4 losses. Doesn't matter, I think they'll get a buy.

New Orleans Saints - This may be low, they still have a killer offense, but I wonder what the departure of Reggie Bush does for their special teams and their scheming. He wasn't particularly productive in the box score but he sure opened things up everywhere and he was electric when he touched the ball. Saints had a nice draft too picking up guys who will play right away on a contender.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I absolutely do not think their run was a fluke last year. They have a lot of young talent and unlike Detroit, they know how to win in a tough division now. This is the only dark horse I like. I actually have a witness to my prediction that they would win 10 last year. If Tampa Bay wins their division this year I wouldn't bat an eye. I am a believer in Josh Freeman!

Carolina Panthers - This was their record last year. They didn't do anything to their team to show me it is improved in anyway. Cam Newton is not your savior. Of course playing Clausen would probably yield the same results. Good luck Carolina, maybe you'll prove me wrong and win 2.


NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals - 8-8
Seattle Seahwaks - 8-8
St. Louis Rams - 8-8
San Francisco 49ers - 5-11

Arizona Cardinals - So as you can see I have a problem picking the winner in this division. All these teams have a brutal out of conference schedule. But, if you were to ask me which team has the most talent and most likely to have the best QB at season's end I'd say Arizona. They paid an arm and leg for Kolb and really if he is just average he'll succeed in this division. I don't think we get the 7-9 debacle of last year but 8-8 just feels right.

Seattle Seahawks - BEAST MODE! That run pictured above was one of the best playoff runs in NFL history. But..Tavaris Jackson? At least he has talent including his old buddy Sidney Rice from Minnesota. There won't be any chemistry concerns there and Pete Carroll seems to light up his team with his enthusiam but I just don't think they make it this year.

St. Louis Rams - Much more blue collar than we are used to seeing the Rams. They are trying to win with solid balanced offense and a tougher defense. The Rams are a popular dark horse, but they aren't my dark horse. Sure anybody can win in this craptacular division, but I feel liek they need a few more weapons and some more time to grow as a team. That shit they took in the "play-in" game against Seattle on Week 17 last year is all the proof you need that they weren't ready. I don't think anything has changed...yet.

San Francisco 49ers - If they can somehow convince Carson Palmer to report and then convince Mike Brown to trade him to the 49ers we are talking about something else. But Alex Smith is worthless. I've never seen a QB with less confidence in his ability to make a throw. At least JaMarcus Russell thought he could make the throw, even if it was 15 yards over someone's head. Smith holds the ball too long and just kills his team's offense. Frank Gore is aging as well and just can't be counted on to be the back he was 4 years ago.


AFC EAST

New England Patriots 13-3
New York Jets 12-4
Miami Dolphins 6-10
Buffalo Bills 4-12

New England Patriots - Why? Because this is just what they do. Every year you feel like they just don't have enough talent to hold on to the division lead and every year they come out and win 13 or 14 games. Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, blah blah blah, as long as they are around things won't change here.

New York Jets - They probably lose both games to Patriots this year in the regular season only to beat them in the playoffs. New York is still very very good and hell, they've gone to the AFC Championship game two times in a row now. Pretty hard to pick against them.

Miami Dolphins - Really dropped the ball by not adding Orton. Orton may nto be a sexy name but he can win and has show he can succeed in the NFL unlike Henne. They added some offensive weapons (Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas) to replace those they let go (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams) but I just don't really see how this team improved at all. They won 7 last year, I say 6 this year.

Buffalo Bills - Their defense sucks and Ryan Fitzpatrick was an anomaly last year. I hate this team. They did draft a bunch of players to help bolster a crappy defense but I just don't see this team really going out and beating anyone. Four wins may be too high. When you are riding Fred Jackson, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson you may struggle to score. When you struggle to score and your defense can't stop anyone, you will struggle to win.


AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers 13-3
Baltimore Ravens 11-5
Cleveland Browns 7-9
Cincinnati Bengals 2-14

Pittsburgh Steelers - I don't see how you don't ride this team as a Super Bowl favorite. They know how to win, they are a much mroe explosive offense than people give them credit for because of their team name. Their defense is as intimidating as any on the field and their only real weakness, at O-Line sure didn't hamper them last year. These guys have to be favorites to go back to the Super Bowl again.

Baltimore Ravens - Poor little stepchildren of the North. Until Flacco makes the move to Big Ben quality this team will struggle. While the Steelers are weak at O-line they can scheme around it. The Ravens can't scheme around their biggest weakness, Flacco. Unless Flacco can avoid this average from the last 5 weeks last year: 157.8 yds/gm, The Ravens will be hamstrung in what they can do on offense.

Cleveland Browns - Another popular dark horse to make the leap, but they won't beat Baltimore or Pittsburgh. They also need to continue to learn Pat Shurmur's schemes and honestly they just need to keep playing meaningful games. They have 11 rookies and 31 players with 3 or less years experience. I think they can be upstarts but envisioning a winning record is pretty far-fetched.

Cincinnati Bengals - Look Andy Dalton was a great college player and I liked him. But playing MWC conference defenses and then staring down the barrel of Pittsburgh and Baltimore is just way too different. CIncinnati has to looks of a team on Carolina's path. They have started their youth movement now, so you can't expect much out of them.

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans 11-5
Indianapolis Colts 9-7
Tennessee Titans 6-10
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13

Houston Texans - Well, after years of being the dark horse, they have to be considered the favorites. They bolstered their defense with experienced NFL talent, they still boast a top 5 offense and they are going to start feasting on a weak division. It took 4 years, but you have finally arrived Houston.

Indianapolis Colts - Even without Manning I would have predicted the Texans to win the division. If Peyton misses any time, especially the crucial Week 1 game against Houston, it just widens the gap between the teams. If Manning misses a few weeks with Houston, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay on tap, the Colts will face an insurmountable hole. For anyone that ever argued that against Manning being MVP, well you are about to find out just how amazing and more importantly, valuable, he was.

Tennessee Titans - Way to pay 30 million guaranteed to what is becoming the fastest marginalized position in the NFL. In 10 years running backs will be a dime a dozen like a kicker or punter. With or without him this team was awful, with him they win 6, without him they win 3 or 4.

Jacksonville Jaguars - The rebuilding has begun. Garrard is out. Luke McCown....is in? Holy moly. Jacksonville had been adding and adding to their defense, but now they continue to erode their offense. MoJo is on rubber legs, Rashad Jenning is on IR and by Week 5 we could be looking at McCown at QB throwing to Mike Thomas with Deji Karim at RB. This could be the worst offense in football this year. It's definitely Jack Del Rio's last year there and he's my pick for first coach fired this year.

AFC WEST

San Diego Chargers 10-6
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
Denver Broncos 6-10
Oakland Raiders 6-10

San Diego Chargers - Pretty tough schedule facing NE, NYJ, Balt, and GB, plus Chicago and Detroit on the road. They have a lot of talent and every year everyone picks them to win. Last year that had the number one offense and defense in terms of yards per game. Their special teams killed them. The same talent returns and there is every indication they should win their division and make the playoffs.

Kansas City - I don't see why there is so much hate. This is a good young, especially on defense. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished inside the top 10 this year on defense (14th last year) and they have talent on offense with Bowe and Jamaal Charles. The real question is Matt Cassel's health and whether the offense can survive Charlie Weis' defection to the University of Florida.

Denver Broncos - Well the Tebow diversion was resolved in favor of Orton. Its probably best for the win now mentality although I may be in the 1% minority who believes Tebow can win in this league. Denver will be significantly better on defense this year (kinda hard not to be better than 32nd) but I don't think this team is significantly better than last year in the standings. a 2 win improvement is reasonable.

Oakland Raiders - They had defections and didn't actually sign anyone other than their draft class, which for their standards was actually a decent class. A lot of people think the Raiders are another one of those dark horses. I don't see it. I think they have trouble keeping pace in their own division (despite going 6-0 there last year) and a 2 win regression is well within the cards.

NFC Playoff Teams - Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Falcons, Saints (It wouldn't take much for me to remove them in favor of TB), Cardinals. NFC Champ game: Packers v. Falcons

AFC Playoff Teams - Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Chargers. AFC Champ Game: Steelers v. Jets.

Superbowl: Packers v. Steelers, Pt. 2. Steelers win this round.

Thats my (educated) opinion, please comment to agree or disagree, give a shout to your favorite team and offer your own predictions.