Smoke and Mirrors

Ah the NBA Draft is upon us. More trades per draft pick than any other league. Did you know Dirk Nowitzki was not drafted by Dallas, but rather Dallas drafted Robert "Tractor" Traylor only to trade his rights for Dirk and some other scrub? Tractor just recently died and Dirk just won a title. I never understand why NBA GMs just freely wheel and deal players during the draft. I know there are economic concerns, but beyond that I feel like there is no foresight in their trading.

Who would you rather have?

Yeah I thought so too.

So, I'm not going to do a mock draft for three reasons. One, I dont want to talk about what could be up to 20 non-starters in the NBA. This draft sucks. Two, Mr. Armchair already did a great mock draft on his page. So if you want to see who he thinks is going where and why click here. Three, I find the trade rumor mill much more compelling and honest than in the NFL. So i will discuss a few players from this draft, but most of it will address most of the recent public trade rumors as we wind down to draft time.

So we can't start anywhere but Minnesota. So David Kahn has only had two years thus far, this will be his third draft, but the Donny Walsh protege has given the L.A. Clippers a run for their money in terms of poor team management. Put the Kurt Rambis firing aside, this is a rundown of Kahn's first two drafts:

2009: 5th Overall, Ricky Rubio, 6th Overall Jonny Flynn, 18th Overall Ty Lawson, 28th Overall Wayne Ellington. Yeah that's right those first 3 players were PGs. He took a page right from the Matt Millen "How to Really Suck At Drafting" textbook. Of course in 2009 he only had one of those PGs and it wasn't the best one. Ty Lawson (who at the time I thought would make an NBA starter somewhere) was traded to Denver for Charlotte's lottery protected first round pick, which as it turned out was number 16 last year. What did they do with that? Draft Luke Babbitt and traded him to Portland for Martell Webster. Ty Lawson for Martell Webster. Good job. Of course, Jonny Flynn was good as a rookie and then was ineffective and injured last year, and with Rubio coming it looks like he too is gone. Usually #6 overall picks aren't two year rentals.

Lastly, we come to Rubio (Kahn gets a pass for Ellington, no one expects anything from the #28). He is coming to Minnesota finally, I'm sure after assurances that Flynn is gone and the Spanish prima donna gets to run the T'Wolves exclusively. Here's some fun stats in the Euroleague this year: 22 MPG, 32% 2 pt FG, 22% 3 pt FG, 3.5 Ast, 6.5 Pts. Sure its 22 MPG, but unless his teammates couldnt score in a whorehouse, then he does basically translates as a pure passer with a 6'4" 190 lb frame who will get beat up in the NBA and poses absolutely no scoring threat. This is like having a poor man's Jason Kidd, only without Kidd's defense, size and outside shooting. I don't think he translates well in the NBA for at least a few years. This was not a great result in Kahn's first year and made fans do this.

2010: Wesley Johnson, 4th Overall, Luke Babbitt, 16th Overall, Trevor Booker, 23rd Overall. I think in everyone's haste to bash this year's draft class they forget how bad last year's was. Lets dispatch with the last two, they were both traded for equally valueless pieces. Wes Johnson, is interesting. Minny gave him 63 starts but his numbers were bad. The jury is still out on him but you'd really expect more polish from the 4th overall pick who came out as a 4th year junior. I loved Cousins in this draft more than Favors, and you can't tell me a front court of Cousins, Love, and Beasley wouldn't have been fun to watch and yielded better results.

Fast forward to 2011 (yeah for Kahn's sake I omitted this little nugget: The Timberwolves agreed to re-sign Darko Milicic for 4 years and $20 million on July 1, 2010), Minny sits with the number 2 overall pick. This is definitely Kyrie Irving or Derrick Williams. If I was running the Cavs, the pick here would be Irving. The problem is Irving and Williams play positions Minny is ok with. Rubio is here and Williams likely plays Beasley's position. Beasley who is only 22 and finally has the offensive reigns he was waiting for put up a 19 and 5 season. So, Minny has been shopping. Here are some fun deals I've heard recently:

Pau Gasol for #2 and Kevin Love: I don't think this happens. It's a weird trade for Minnesota and L.A. Minny loses their breakout star and now has to pay 31 year old Gasol 60 mil. L.A. does lose the actual 2010 Finals MVP and a player in 10-11 who was an MVP candidate while scoring 2nd team all nba votes and whose playoff failure this year i think was an aberration. It's a fun trade for L.A. fans who like to blame Gasol. Mike Brown gets a hard nosed in the paint warrior in Kevin Love and likely gets tweener supersub Derrick Williams as a bench player to get more bench offense besides Lamar Odom and possibly turn Artest into a DeShawn Stevenson first 5 minutes of each half type of starter. If not Williams, then L.A. gets its Fisher replacement in Irving. It's a win-win and if i was L.A. i would do it despite losing a 2nd team all-NBA.

Andrew Bynum for #2 and Michael Beasley: This trade makes no sense for Minnesota. They lose their offensive weapon and the pick that would be used to replace his offense for a guy who honestly may never stay healthy. Plus it admits fault in the Milicic contract (which they should) and you now have a 5 mil a year (almost the Mid Level Exemption) bench center who sucks anyway.

Roy Hibbert and #15 for #2: This trade fascinates me. I like Hibbert, I think he's going to continue to develop, and as we saw this year with Dallas, a good defensive center is a cornerstone to a contending defense. Obviously, the Pacers get instant offense with the trade, hoping that Williams lands at number 2, since Irving and Collison don't mix. I think it's a fun trade and would be a winner for both teams.

Javale McGee (and possibly #6) for #2: This trade is weird. Javale is nice, but I'd rather roll the dice with Williams instead of McGee and maybe Jimmer or someone at 6. I'm sure Washington would love to pair Wall with someone who can really take the scoring pressure off of him.

Steve Nash for #2: HA! This was discussed at the trade deadline this year before Phoenix knew what they would be getting, but this would be the worst trade ever for Minnesota. It's a one year rental (Nash made it very clear he wouldn't re-sign with Minny) to mentor Rubio. Knowing Kahn, this is exactly what he would do.

Bogut and #10 for #2: If Bogut could actually play 70 games i would love this trade for Minny, but you may just be taking an albatross on your team to lose the #2 and use the #10 for someone like Klay Thompson or Chris Singleton. Sounds like Milwaukee won't do this trade, but if I was them, I would do it in a heartbeat.

#4 and either cash considerations or future draft pick for #2: I kinda made this one up, but Cleveland came out a few weeks ago saying they wanted both top picks and this is probably how they would get it done. Cleveland would get Irving and Williams thus avoiding the inevitable mistake they are going to make drafting Irving first. Minny gets likely Brandon Knight who would complement Rubio well, especially providing good backcourt defense and if not Knight, then Enes Kanter who apparently they are in love with.

As you can see Minnesota has so many options. My guess, they don't trade and draft Kanter who is more of a project than I think people realize (Kanter was supposed to go to Kentucky last year but ruled ineligible for the whole year).

My next favorite trade rumors involve Tony Parker. Why do the Spurs want to trade their 29 year old All-Star PG? Well a number of reasons I think. First he's owed 12.5 mil per year for the next four years and the new CBA is sure to make that figure tough on the Spurs cap. The Spurs window effectively closed last year and they need to really get younger. Tony Parker banged Brent Barry's wife, despite being married to Eva Longoria. Just can't trust the French.

Parker for #7: If this is seriously offered by San Antonio, I don't think Sacramento can push the button fast enough. This was a team that couldn't even meet the minimum threshold of salary required by the CBA. They'll be able to afford the salary under any new CBA. Parker also provides two things Sacramento really needs: a PG and a veteran. Parker and reign in Cousins and mentor Evans. Anyone who saw the Kings last year saw a Tyreke Evans who was great through 3 quarters then didn't know how to finish a game. Parker is the perfect solution for it. Of course this gives SA the chance to draft someone like Kawhi Leonard who is a perfect Popovich player.

Parker for #5: Toronto needs any help it can get and I agree with Mr. Armchair here, Toronte is infatuated with soft Euro players. Drafting Parker at number 5 instead of someone like Jan Vesely would drastically improve the Raptors and help get more efficient play out of Bargnani and DeRozan.

Parker for ANY LOTTERY pick: The rumor is that SA really wants Parker gone. I guess any lottery pick would do, but trading Parker for say Charlotte's 9th really wouldnt return a fantastic player for San Antonio. But I do firmly believe Parker is gone from SA.

Another small Kings related trade:

Felton and #22 for #7: Not as great for Sacramento, but Felton can still be a distributor if he's not the number 1 option. The other thing Felton offers is an outside shot (38% in 09-10, and over 40% after being traded to a good Denver team where he wasn't the first option). I think this is another no brainer for Sac, and it allows Denver to add a piece they need while only losing a backup PG. If Sac can't get Parker I think this is a better than even odds trade. It makes way too much sense.

Paul Millsap or Devin Harris for ?: All I have seen on the Jazz (who hold #3 and #12) is that they are willing to trade these two players, plus maybe Al Jefferson, but I havent seen any concrete rumors. What it mostly means is that they are going Kanter or Knight with #3 (thank god its not Jimmer like was rumored a few weeks ago) depending on who they are able to move. They could get a lot for Millsap and not so much for Harris who has now been traded twice for PGs better than him. Some good trades would be Millsap for #4-#6. He could really help Cleveland, Toronto, or Washington.

Iguodala Trade Rumors: With the impending lockout I think Philly wants to move Iggy. He has been rumored to the Warriors for Monta Ellis or to the Clippers for Chris Kaman. Kaman sucks and the Clippers don't have a 1st round pick this year so I don't think that's the deal. Ellis for Iggy makes much more sense, and they could also just swap 1st round picks to do it draft day (GS #11, Phil #16). If that trade happens, new Warriors coach Mark Jackson says it won't, I think Philly wins.

That's pretty much it for the Lottery teams. Charlotte isn't rumored into anything. Detroit may have given Kawhi Leonard a guarantee (they have #8 and after his workout he cancelled with #10 Milwaukee). If he's not there, Detroit may trade down with rumored partner Houston who has #14 and #23. If Kawhi is there at #8 Detroit would've been crazy not to grab the great defender.

As for some of the players in the draft you guys have seen what I think regarding Irving and Williams, Kanter, Leonard, and that Fredette shouldn't go too high. I see Jimmer as a middle ground between Steph Curry and J.J. Redick. Likely a backup SG for his career. He has a great work ethic and some real skills, but he can't be counted on as a lottery pick to be a long term starter.

Of course, I haven't discussed Kemba Walker. He's so small, but he single handedly willed UCONN to win 11 games in row to win not only the grueling Big East Tourney but also the NCAA championship. I believe Walker has a real place in this league with the right team. Mr. Armchair would love to see him Sacramento purple. It's not a terrible place for him to end up, as I said before they lacked really leadership at the end of games last year. Walker could be that leader. Toronto and Detroit could use him as well. I like Walker and think he will go where he deserves to go.

Besides Kanter, there are a couple of Euros set as top 10. Jan Vesely who is a 6'11' 3-4 tweener and Jonas Valanciunas, a center who likely won't reach the NBA for a couple of years. Each one is a project (as all Euros are) but from what I've read I like Vesely, but I am not confident in Valanciunas being a productive center at 240 lbs in the NBA.

This should be a fund draft with so many trade options and uncertainty coming down with the new CBA. There may be a lot of player movement with this draft, so tune in at 4pm. What do you think of these trades? Are there trades you've heard not listed here? Sound off on the comment board!